MLB Trade Rumors: The Angels' Potentially Elite Rotation

[BTH]

13 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Or... What if they used him as a piggy back starter. It doesn't frequently happen in the major leagues, but if we've got someone, say Suarez, who is struggling their second time through the order, we can use them both in 3-4 inning increments. 

It seems like that’d be tougher to do with a 6-man rotation.

You’d be dedicating 7 roster spots to “starters.”

The 15-day option limit and the limit on the number of times a player can be optioned each season also complicate doing such a thibg.

[Chuck]

13 hours ago, T.G. said:

We're doomed.

Thankfully that's only SI. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

It seems like that’d be tougher to do with a 6-man rotation.

You’d be dedicating 7 roster spots to “starters.”

The 15-day option limit and the limit on the number of times a player can be optioned each season also complicate doing such a thibg.

Innings are innings though.

It's quite possible we would actually get more innings out of few pitchers with this method.

[Chuck]

 

[Vlad27Trout27]

The rotation is underated, Othani is othani a true number 1, but people underestimate how Sandy is! yes is FIp was much higher than the ERA, but he's similar to Weaver, in that he's a 2/3 on any team. He had a higher War than Cole last year, and it's 2 straight season where's he breaking out. His Fb is average, but that change and slider are plus-plus pitches! Suarez, was outstanding in the second hald last year, his second half numbers were Ace-like. It'll be interesting to see what Suarez we see next year. Wildcard for me will be Anderson and Detmers, we saw what Anderson can do at his best, now can he replace it? Detmer's has much upisde (outside of Othani) 

If I have t classfy them by upside

Ace, true #1: Othani

#2/3s: Anderson, Sandy and Detmers

#3/4: Suarez, and Canning

#5 Barria, Davidson..

Now the Bp, I also would not mind seeing C-rod in the Bp, Set him up as the closer depending on how he does in spring traing. I'd hold on to Joyce and Murphy in the minors. I'd also consider putting Davidson in the Bp and seeing how his imporved Velo works in that role. 

[Angel Oracle]

The mention of Davidson’s velocity increase had me look up his stat cast.

He started 2022 averaging 95mph on 29 4-seamers in April, but with the Halos from August on averaged 93mph on some 250 4-seamers.

Plus his 4-seamer is straight as an arrow.

His one positive pitch is the slider (87mph with sharp break).

[Revad]

12 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

The mention of Davidson’s velocity increase had me look up his stat cast.

He started 2022 averaging 95mph on 29 4-seamers in April, but with the Halos from August on averaged 93mph on some 250 4-seamers.

Plus his 4-seamer is straight as an arrow.

His one positive pitch is the slider (87mph with sharp break).

Unless he has a very good spring and grabs the 6th SP spot I think he’s traded or cut.  I don’t see him in the bullpen because he has no options.

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, Revad said:

Unless he has a very good spring and grabs the 6th SP spot I think he’s traded or cut.  I don’t see him in the bullpen because he has no options.

Yeah.  He is essentially a long reliever, but with Barria already serving in that role, I'm not sure there is one for Davidson.  He seems like a prime DFA candidate.  If he has a poor spring, he'll probably pass through waivers and we can stash him in the minors to see if we can get anything out of him.

[Docwaukee]

14 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Yeah.  He is essentially a long reliever, but with Barria already serving in that role, I'm not sure there is one for Davidson.  He seems like a prime DFA candidate.  If he has a poor spring, he'll probably pass through waivers and we can stash him in the minors to see if we can get anything out of him.

He's got a good slider.  I'd prefer to throw him in the pen and see if the fastball velo ticks up and just have him throw like 65% sliders.  If it doesn't work out then DFA him and throw him in AAA if he passes through.  

[Second Base]

3 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

He's got a good slider.  I'd prefer to throw him in the pen and see if the fastball velo ticks up and just have him throw like 65% sliders.  If it doesn't work out then DFA him and throw him in AAA if he passes through.  

I still think in a bullpen role, he ticks up toward 95-96 regularly with decent command and a plus slider all from the left side. 

[Angel Oracle]

6 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I still think in a bullpen role, he ticks up toward 95-96 regularly with decent command and a plus slider all from the left side. 

Even though the 4-seamer is flat?

[Second Base]

6 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Even though the 4-seamer is flat?

Oh definitely. He doesn't need a particular shape to it if he's only throwing 20 pitches, 13 of which are sliders. That leaves room for 5 fastballs and two changeups (to the single RHB he'd face). If he faces an average of four batters, three of which are likely to be left handed because of how they'd use him, that's five pitches per batter, which means each batter is likely to see only one fastball, at max two per at bat and they wouldn't be seeing him across multiple innings. 

So yeah, if used as a reliever, likely not an issue. 

[Docwaukee]

Just now, Second Base said:

I still think in a bullpen role, he ticks up toward 95-96 regularly with decent command and a plus slider all from the left side. 

that's what I'm hoping.  Outside of an injury to Barria, he's really got no place as a long reliever.  Unless of course they don't add another starter.  But I think they will.  I just don't like the idea of him being our #6 to start the year.  He's just not good enough.  Relegate him to competing for a bullpen spot.  I'm fine with that.  

[Second Base]

34 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

that's what I'm hoping.  Outside of an injury to Barria, he's really got no place as a long reliever.  Unless of course they don't add another starter.  But I think they will.  I just don't like the idea of him being our #6 to start the year.  He's just not good enough.  Relegate him to competing for a bullpen spot.  I'm fine with that.  

I doubt they'd choose him over Canning, Barria or Rod for that 6 starter spot anyway. 

 

[angelsnationtalk]

I wouldn't say elite, but i'd definitely agree with have a deep rotation with options. 

Canning, to me, is a write-off. It's been a ling time since he's been reliable and he's a huge injury risk. 
Minasian's 2021 draft will strongly help with depth this year. 
Bachman, Bush, Murphy, Silseth and Torres could provide help in some form.

[ThisismineScios]

The problem with Davidson is his control. His slider is awesome, but he can't control it. He had an insane amount of BB last year. 

The FB would be fine if he could locate it really well. Without any movement, he's gotta paint the corners with it or stay up in the zone. Then finish with his slider. But his control sucks. 

Somebody mentioned he was going to Driveline. Where did we see that? 

[BTH]

11 hours ago, ThisismineScios said:

Somebody mentioned he was going to Driveline. Where did we see that? 

Looks like he was already working with Driveline in previous seasons.

 

[halodground]

I think the rotation is potentially elite as noted. Two thoughts on that- first, if it was 2007 we’d all probably feel confident that most of the young pitchers would contribute in a meaningful way and approach their ceilings but the last decade plus of futility has tainted the hopefulness of Angel fans. Additionally, for the rotation to approach that truly elite status, the young pitchers have to be more efficient. At least to my non-expert mind, 7 innings of limiting base runners and keeping the score down has more real value than 4 and 2/3 innings of shutout ball and getting yanked because you’re already at 100 pitches. Particularly with our suspect bullpen.

[Jason]

11 minutes ago, halodground said:

I think the rotation is potentially elite as noted. Two thoughts on that- first, if it was 2007 we’d all probably feel confident that most of the young pitchers would contribute in a meaningful way and approach their ceilings but the last decade plus of futility has tainted the hopefulness of Angel fans. Additionally, for the rotation to approach that truly elite status, the young pitchers have to be more efficient. At least to my non-expert mind, 7 innings of limiting base runners and keeping the score down has more real value than 4 and 2/3 innings of shutout ball and getting yanked because you’re already at 100 pitches. Particularly with our suspect bullpen.

I'm sick of potential and I'm ready to see some results 

[Pancake Bear]

27 minutes ago, halodground said:

I think the rotation is potentially elite as noted. Two thoughts on that- first, if it was 2007 we’d all probably feel confident that most of the young pitchers would contribute in a meaningful way and approach their ceilings but the last decade plus of futility has tainted the hopefulness of Angel fans. Additionally, for the rotation to approach that truly elite status, the young pitchers have to be more efficient. At least to my non-expert mind, 7 innings of limiting base runners and keeping the score down has more real value than 4 and 2/3 innings of shutout ball and getting yanked because you’re already at 100 pitches. Particularly with our suspect bullpen.

Yeah, that's not gonna happen in today's game. No front office that is remotely up to date is going to run the rotation that way. It's just reality. 

[halodground]

8 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Yeah, that's not gonna happen in today's game. No front office that is remotely up to date is going to run the rotation that way. It's just reality. 

I’m aware that 7 innings isn’t going to be the norm. The top 5 Astros starters (in terms of games started) all averaged over 5.5 innings/start. 2 of them were over 6. To be elite, our pitchers have to go deeper into games. Sandoval, Suarez, Detmers all would benefit greatly from more efficiency.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, halodground said:

Additionally, for the rotation to approach that truly elite status, the young pitchers have to be more efficient. At least to my non-expert mind, 7 innings of limiting base runners and keeping the score down has more real value than 4 and 2/3 innings of shutout ball and getting yanked because you’re already at 100 pitches. Particularly with our suspect bullpen.

Yes to your first sentence.  And in theory, yes to the second, but no team does that anymore.  Houston had the top rotation in baseball last year and averaged 5.9 ip per start.  And they actually had the most SP innings by a fair amount.  

[Hubs]

43 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

Yes to your first sentence.  And in theory, yes to the second, but no team does that anymore.  Houston had the top rotation in baseball last year and averaged 5.9 ip per start.  And they actually had the most SP innings by a fair amount.  

Angels need to average 5 2/3 IP per start for the rotation. 

Ohtani averaged just under 6 (5.92) last season. Sandoval was at 5.51. Detmers at 5.16, but 5.46 after his recall from AAA. Suarez 5.11 in his starts, but 5.81 post ASB when he was pitching better. Anderson, with the Dodgers, was at 6.10 as a starter. He pitched 178 2/3 IP but only 170 2/3 as a starter.

So I'd say it's doable with health.

Ohtani 6 IP in 32 starts (192 IP), Anderson 6.10 IP in 30 (183 IP), Sandoval 5.67 in 30 (170.1 IP), Detmers 5.5 in 28 GS (154 IP) and Suarez 5.67 in 27 starts (153.09 IP) would average out at 

852.19 IP / 147 GS = 5.79 IP/GS.

Then you put 15 starts together with Canning and Silseth primarily, maybe 1-2 other guys getting a start or two. Last year the Astros used 8 starters. Angels used 16. 

Even if Canning, Silseth, and company have 4 2/3 IP average, that pushes you to 922.19/162 = IP... or 5.692 IP...which puts them in great shape.

Usually a team pitches somewhere between 1430-1455 IP per season. You'd think it would be 162 x 9 = 1458, but no team pitched that many innings last year, even the winningest teams, which would pitch more 9th innings than those that lost a lot, as they'd be winning. Plus you have extras.

All the teams that won 90+ pitched at least 1435 2/3 IP and the teams that lost 100 pitched at most 1426 1/3. League Average was 1436, the Angels were right there at 1435 2/3.

If they can get 925 out of their starters, that leaves just 490-530 IP from the pen. If that's the case, you hope Estevez, Tepera, Loup, Herget, Quijada, Barria, Garza, Wantz, and Weiss get the vast majority of those innings. 50 IP average from the top 5 leaves 240-280 for Barria (70+), Garza (45) Weiss (45), Wantz (45)... plus some odds and ends.

I'd be okay with that if the pen performs.

 

 

 

 

[Revad]

It’s helpful if the sixth starter has options.  It’s interesting that Perry didn’t have a higher priority on adding one, especially given he could have had Lorenzen or Syndergaard at $8.5. Million plus incentives.  He gambled on them last year, maybe he’s going to trust the prospects this year.  I think if he was going to sign a sixth starter he would have done it.

I wish he had or still does, since factoring in injury there will be plenty of opportunities for the young guys.

[IheartLA]

On 1/2/2023 at 4:26 AM, Stradling said:

I have no idea what kind of pitcher he will be after 1.5 years off. He had a fantastic 2020, but in 2021 his FIP was over 4. 

I think we'd be getting the best version of himself... at least on the field. Given what we know of him I think we'd see an extremely motivated, hungry, even angry version of Bauer eager to prove the Dodgers and the rest of MLB wrong. For potentially the league minimum there is no faster way of improving this team to bona vide WS contenders. It's a no brainer if we want to give ourselves the best chance to win the world series in a franchise defining year in many respects.

We should also be near the top of his list to play. Same city, can stick it to the Dodgers right up the freeway, fan of Trout/Ohtani. One of the main storylines of MLB is when are we going to see Trout and Ohtani win in the playoffs, it seems like Bauer's style to think of himself as the guy that can make that happen. He's playing for the league min where ever he goes and is gone in a year so I think this is actually perfect if Perry/Nevin can make it happen clubhouse wise and PR wise.