State of the Angels 2023 Payroll

[jordan]

2 hours ago, Warfarin said:

I think a lot of us just assumed Arte wouldn't spend anything this offseason, or just spend the absolute minimum, but to his credit it seems they are investing in the team this year.  We certainly didn't have to add Renfroe (or Anderson, or Urshela) and said "we want to see what the kids can do" and start Adell or Moniak.  

Maybe he will continue to pleasantly surprise us.  I don't hold any illusions of grandeur and expect to see one of the star SSs added, but I'm hopeful he'll acquire a legit SS.

I just had a thought, I wonder if Arte has decided to do what he can one last time to help Trout get to the playoffs under his watch. I’m sure they have a decent relationship and Arte may feel an obligation to put forth his best effort one last time. Just speculation of course. 

[Swordsman78]

6 hours ago, jordan said:

I just had a thought, I wonder if Arte has decided to do what he can one last time to help Trout get to the playoffs under his watch. I’m sure they have a decent relationship and Arte may feel an obligation to put forth his best effort one last time. Just speculation of course. 

I agree with you on Trout, also a playoff appearance could entice Ohtani to want to stay as well.  They will go over the Luxury tax if the right opportunity presents, but probably not sign anyone to a mega deal.

Angels have a "win now" mentality while they still have both Trout and Ohtan san.   As they say in Australia........."It's Sydney or the bush".

[Pancake Bear]

Here's a thought: Arte is about to get $2-3b for the team. Compared to that, what's an extra $20m? This is literally his last shot at a ring. Arte brings it up at every press conference. He wasn't willing to cut into his profits in past years to up the payroll, but maybe he's willing to push it a little for a shot at winning it all on the way out.

[BTH]

A more cynical spin, since we’re speculating about why Arte may be increasing the payroll:

If he increases payroll and they still miss the playoffs, he can deflect any blame placed on him that says he didn’t provide enough payroll. He could point towards this season and say he upped the payroll then, and it still didn’t work.

[greginpsca]

I think they are only going to go after one SP, and 1 or 2 low cost RP'ers. I also think Perry would like to find a taker for one or both of Loup & Tepera. Even if he eats part of that money he can replace it with minimum deals. He might be able to find RP at the end of Spring Training when teams are making their roster crunches. Guys with options.That way it wouldn't raise payroll. If there were to be a position player to be traded, i think it would be Fletcher. If they find some team to take on his remainder of his deal.

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

Here's a thought: Arte is about to get $2-3b for the team. Compared to that, what's an extra $20m? This is literally his last shot at a ring. Arte brings it up at every press conference. He wasn't willing to cut into his profits in past years to up the payroll, but maybe he's willing to push it a little for a shot at winning it all on the way out.

Perhaps it is a blend of business and personal desire.  The priority will be the business perspective - keeping the long-term books clean for the next ownership group, to help maximize the profits and sale.  This means no significant long-term deals.

From a personal perspective, I'm sure he'd like to get a ring as he goes out, which means he will approve short-term deals this year that he will pay for (not the next ownership group), thus it won't negatively impact the sale.

So in that sense, I could see another ~10-20mil added (optimistically), with almost all of that coming in the form of one year deals / guys on expiring contracts.

[Pancake Bear]

11 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

I think they are only going to go after one SP, and 1 or 2 low cost RP'ers. I also think Perry would like to find a taker for one or both of Loup & Tepera. Even if he eats part of that money he can replace it with minimum deals. He might be able to find RP at the end of Spring Training when teams are making their roster crunches. Guys with options.That way it wouldn't raise payroll. If there were to be a position player to be traded, i think it would be Fletcher. If they find some team to take on his remainder of his deal.

Why would you trade them when we have no bullpen? Their value is already low. Better to try to fix what was wrong than waste more money giving up on them. 

[Pancake Bear]

54 minutes ago, Trendon said:

A more cynical spin, since we’re speculating about why Arte may be increasing the payroll:

If he increases payroll and they still miss the playoffs, he can deflect any blame placed on him that says he didn’t provide enough payroll. He could point towards this season and say he upped the payroll then, and it still didn’t work.

Does he care that much about his reputation to just throw an extra $20m+ down the drain, though?

[BTH]

48 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Does he care that much about his reputation to just throw an extra $20m+ down the drain, though?

Probably not, which is why I’m skeptical they’ll spend another $20M+

[Pancake Bear]

1 minute ago, Trendon said:

Probably not, which is why I’m skeptical they’ll spend another $20M+

Perry, Nevin, and Rosenthal all said they're not done. I figure that means at least $10m more and it wouldn't shock me to see $15 if they're still looking for a shortstop and relief depth. 

[BTH]

3 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Perry, Nevin, and Rosenthal all said they're not done. I figure that means at least $10m more and it wouldn't shock me to see $15 if they're still looking for a shortstop and relief depth. 

The fact that Perry and Nevin both said they’re not done means that, unless they’re lying, they’re gonna do something else this offseason. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll add $10M-$15M in payroll. It could end up being two relievers signed for $2M apiece.

[Pancake Bear]

Just now, Trendon said:

The fact that Perry and Nevin both said they’re not done means that, unless they’re lying, they’re gonna do something else this offseason. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll add $10M-$15M in payroll. It could end up being two relievers signed for $2M apiece.

For sure possible, and I think they definitely want to add a bit in the pen. That may be it aside from low cost stuff, but it sure sounds like they're looking for a shortstop still, and if that's the case, I don't see why they would given what they already have (Fletcher, Rengifo, Soto, Urshela, Velazquez) unless it's a meaningful upgrade.

[Swordsman78]

4 hours ago, Trendon said:

The fact that Perry and Nevin both said they’re not done means that, unless they’re lying, they’re gonna do something else this offseason. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll add $10M-$15M in payroll. It could end up being two relievers signed for $2M apiece.

IMO they will add another $20M to the payroll and get both an impact SP and SS

[Angel Oracle]

15 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Perhaps it is a blend of business and personal desire.  The priority will be the business perspective - keeping the long-term books clean for the next ownership group, to help maximize the profits and sale.  This means no significant long-term deals.

From a personal perspective, I'm sure he'd like to get a ring as he goes out, which means he will approve short-term deals this year that he will pay for (not the next ownership group), thus it won't negatively impact the sale.

So in that sense, I could see another ~10-20mil added (optimistically), with almost all of that coming in the form of one year deals / guys on expiring contracts.

Still have $27 million to spend to get to, but not exceed, tax threshold for 2023.   That means say spending $22 million more and leaving $5 million open for a July acquisition if in contention?

Now, where are those couple relievers out there, and could they get say Cleveland to trade Rosario’s last season to FA to the Halos?

Edited November 24, 2022 by Angel Oracle

[Warfarin]

38 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Still have $27 million to spend to get to, but not exceed, tax threshold for 2023.   That means say spending $22 million more and leaving $5 million open for a July acquisition if in contention?

Now, where are those couple relievers out there, and could they get say Cleveland to trade Rosario’s last season to FA to the Halos?

Yeah - I think ideally, teams like to leave about 6-7mil of wiggle room for mid-season acquisitions, as needed.

For fun, what I'd like to do is the following:

1.  Acquire Rosario via trade - that's a little under 10mil, per the MLBTR estimates

2.  Sign either Tommy Kahnle or Chris Martin to a deal similar to Tepera - 2/14.  That's another 7mil of luxury tax.  Chris Martin briefly took over as the de facto closer after Kimbrel's demotion.

The last few mil can be earmarked for either a backup C (if Thaiss isn't deemed an option), a true backup OF, or a reliever that we can find who will accept something like a 1/3 type deal.

Lineup:  2B Rengifo, CF Trout, DH Ohtani, LF Ward, 3B Rendon, 1B Walsh, RF Renfroe, C Stassi, SS Rosario.  Bench:  C/1B Thaiss, 3B/1B Urshela, SS/2B Fletcher, OF Moniak (or whomever they find)

Rotation:  Ohtani, Sandoval, Anderson, Suarez, Detmers, and a mix of guys they can option back and forth to serve as the 6th SP

Bullpen:  Herget, Kahnle/Martin, Tepera, Loup, Quijada, Barria, and then 2 relievers with options that win spots (Weiss?  Wantz?  etc).

[Stradling]

19 hours ago, stormngt said:

I don't think they add another MI.

IMO the front office believes Fletcher and Rengifo are both solid major leaguers.  I also think they are determined to at least play Walsh against righties.rightness.  Urshela will be utility infielder roaming all four positions and playing almost every day.

We have Soto as depth.

I think any new additions will be pitching.  We haven't improved the bullpen and we only are committed to 5 starting pitchers (Ohatani, Sandoval,  Detmer, Suarez, Anderson).  I see us adding a 6th starting pitcher. No one to be excited about.

I would be shocked if they didn’t add a starting middle infielder. 

[Stradling]

17 hours ago, Trendon said:

A more cynical spin, since we’re speculating about why Arte may be increasing the payroll:

If he increases payroll and they still miss the playoffs, he can deflect any blame placed on him that says he didn’t provide enough payroll. He could point towards this season and say he upped the payroll then, and it still didn’t work.

He will have zero reason to deflect since he probably won’t be the owner. 

[Stradling]

15 hours ago, Trendon said:

Probably not, which is why I’m skeptical they’ll spend another $20M+

He’s already spent this off season when the team is up for sale. 

[BTH]

48 minutes ago, Stradling said:

He’s already spent this off season when the team is up for sale. 

Yes, but it’s one thing to match the beginning payroll from last season and another thing to blow past the beginning payroll from last season.

[Stradling]

Just now, Trendon said:

Yes, but it’s one thing to match the beginning payroll from last season and another thing to blow past the beginning payroll from last season.

But either way he isn’t spending to “save face”. 

[Blarg]

To a certain extent the payroll is meaningless to Moreno since the new ownership will be paying for it. Not that he would approve rolling over the luxury tax and saddling the new ownership for expensive long term deals but hitting the top of payroll cap with deals that evaporate after 2 to 3 years wouldn't be a future ownership concern. Those deals are tradeable to reset any overages. 

[Erstad Grit]

59 minutes ago, Blarg said:

To a certain extent the payroll is meaningless to Moreno since the new ownership will be paying for it. Not that he would approve rolling over the luxury tax and saddling the new ownership for expensive long term deals but hitting the top of payroll cap with deals that evaporate after 2 to 3 years wouldn't be a future ownership concern. Those deals are tradeable to reset any overages. 

Exactly. Why would he care about long term luxury taxes or contracts? I think he's spending big time and a new owner spending 3 billion would probably not care about a few hundred million in added payroll.  

[Warfarin]

13 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Exactly. Why would he care about long term luxury taxes or contracts? I think he's spending big time and a new owner spending 3 billion would probably not care about a few hundred million in added payroll.  

Because those things DO impact the sales price.  People do not become extremely wealthy by being frivolous with random expenses.  Will new ownership care about another 10-15mil of contracts?  Not at all.  Will they care if someone is added with a 250-300mil of future contract obligations?  Yes, absolutely, they will.  That is going to be roughly 10% of the sales price, which is not an insignificant percentage.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 11/23/2022 at 12:32 PM, Warfarin said:

I would still wager, though, on a modest SS acquisition, which will also help fortify our bench by (likely) pushing Rengifo into the super utility role.

Rengifo is better than Fletcher with the bat. Why wouldn't Rengifo stay a 2B and Fletcher to UT IFer?

[Jason]

6 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Rengifo is better than Fletcher with the bat. Why wouldn't Rengifo stay a 2B and Fletcher to UT IFer?

Yep. I think Rengifo proved he’s an everyday player moving forward.