State of the Angels 2023 Payroll

[BTH]

Roster Resource has them at:

$192M in actual 2023 payroll.

$206M in luxury tax 2023 payroll.

The first luxury tax threshold for 2023 is $233M.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/angels
 

Their end of season 2022 payroll was $180M.

The beginning of season 2022 payroll was $191.4M. (It went down after Iglesias and Syndergaard were traded)

 

So now that the Angels’ 2023 payroll is at the same level that it was at the beginning of the 2022 season, the question is: will they now stand pat payroll-wise or will they go above the current payroll?

Edited November 23, 2022 by Trendon

[Warfarin]

Based on what we have seen, here are a few random observations/guesses:

1.  Arte apparently is okay pushing past last year's payroll, which is great.  I think he is okay spending more, in the context that most of that is in the form of short-term deals, to help prevent any negative impact that it may have on the sale of the team.  A 3/39 deal, such as for Anderson, is fine.  A 7/250 deal, such as for Trea Turner, is not.

2.  I do NOT think Arte will go above the luxury tax limit.  I would expect him to stay below, so that the next owner can, in turn, blow past it the subsequent year (if they want) and be just a first time luxury tax "offender," since the penalties on that are less than repeat offenders

[BTH]

3 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

2.  I do NOT think Arte will go above the luxury tax limit.  I would expect him to stay below, so that the next owner can, in turn, blow past it the subsequent year (if they want) and be just a first time luxury tax "offender," since the penalties on that are less than repeat offenders

I agree with this.

I’d be shocked to see him go past the luxury tax.

I think it’s just a question of how close he’ll get to it.

[angelsnationtalk]

I expected the Angels to bump their actual payroll to around $192-193M so I'm not sure what they got left in the tank. Although Perry mentions they aren't done which is definitely good to see. The sale isn't finished yet so i'd imagine Arte can operate with full control.

My only speculation is that the Winter Meetings haven't started yet, so who knows what can come out of it. Perry will have a chance to talk all the major chips there so something could "fall into their lap".

A part of me goes to thinking that we could see him take a run at Senga. He mentioned he wants to play for a winner and Perry being active very early could be him trying to get it together to attract him.

[BTH]

1 minute ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I expected the Angels to bump their actual payroll to around $192-193M so I'm not sure what they got left in the tank. Although Perry mentions they aren't done which is definitely good to see. The sale isn't finished yet so i'd imagine Arte can operate with full control.

Perry said that, but you can make moves without adding payroll— so I wonder if those are the kind of moves they’re targeting going forward.

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, Trendon said:

Perry said that, but you can make moves without adding payroll— so I wonder if those are the kind of moves they’re targeting going forward.

Generally, I don't expect GMs/PBOs to be forthright with any legit information.  I wouldn't expect to hear "we are done" or anything like that.  It's all just political speak - "we are continuously looking for ways to improve the team" and so on and so forth.

All that said, I fully expect them to acquire a SS and improve the bullpen before the offseason is over.  Whether that occurs in the upcoming weeks or at the tail end of the offseason, we'll see.

[DMVol]

4 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Perry said that, but you can make moves without adding payroll— so I wonder if those are the kind of moves they’re targeting going forward.

Not sure, outside of minor league guys, who would be an attractive trade chip....Adell at one time certainly was, but now?  Not sure.  Rengifo could be if we were to trade for a SS, use Fletcher at 2b....

[angelsnationtalk]

1 minute ago, Trendon said:

Perry said that, but you can make moves without adding payroll— so I wonder if those are the kind of moves they’re targeting going forward.

You're right, they could. I'm just curious as to what though. So far they have made trades where they've only picked up payroll by trading pre-arb guys or prospects. Unless they make a big trade for a young stud, but as of now I'd imagine any addition is more $$

 

[BTH]

3 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Generally, I don't expect GMs/PBOs to be forthright with any legit information.  I wouldn't expect to hear "we are done" or anything like that.  It's all just political speak - "we are continuously looking for ways to improve the team" and so on and so forth.

All that said, I fully expect them to acquire a SS and improve the bullpen before the offseason is over.  Whether that occurs in the upcoming weeks or at the tail end of the offseason, we'll see.

Oh, yeah, I wouldn’t expect him to say they're done or say they’ve exhausted their budget.

But since they’re at roughly the same payroll level they entered last season at, I just wonder how much money they gave left to tackle their remaining needs.

[Warfarin]

7 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Perry said that, but you can make moves without adding payroll— so I wonder if those are the kind of moves they’re targeting going forward.

I think it's possible they can add more payroll.  I think the key things, as mentioned, are to stay below the luxury tax and avoid adding long-term debt (i.e. large contracts).  So Amed Rosario, just as an example, would probably get ~9mil in arbitration.  Adding him would push us to 200mil in payroll, but the long-term books would still remain clear for the next owner.  I think this is the type of move we'd see in terms of player acquisition.

[BTH]

3 minutes ago, DMVol said:

Not sure, outside of minor league guys, who would be an attractive trade chip....Adell at one time certainly was, but now?  Not sure.  Rengifo could be if we were to trade for a SS, use Fletcher at 2b....

Probably prospects.

Not saying you trade any of these players, but guys who’d have value would include Neto, Quero, Bush, and Paris.

Unless they dealt someone like Silseth, Suarez, or Rengifo— which would likely be counterproductive.

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, Trendon said:

Oh, yeah, I wouldn’t expect him to say they're done or say they’ve exhausted their budget.

But since they’re at roughly the same payroll level they entered last season at, I just wonder how much money they gave left to tackle their remaining needs.

I have zero basis for this, but I am going to guess, just for fun, that we'll reach a 200-205mil payroll for next year (as in, actual payroll, not luxury tax).

[BTH]

5 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

You're right, they could. I'm just curious as to what though. So far they have made trades where they've only picked up payroll by trading pre-arb guys or prospects. Unless they make a big trade for a young stud, but as of now I'd imagine any addition is more $$

Maybe they’d package some prospects for  pre-arb reliever.

Without knowing their payroll constraints, it’s hard to know what is/isn’t realistic at this point besides the obvious outliers.

[BTH]

2 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I think it's possible they can add more payroll.  I think the key things, as mentioned, are to stay below the luxury tax and avoid adding long-term debt (i.e. large contracts).  So Amed Rosario, just as an example, would probably get ~9mil in arbitration.  Adding him would push us to 200mil in payroll, but the long-term books would still remain clear for the next owner.  I think this is the type of move we'd see in terms of player acquisition.

I agree that any move they do make would be along those lines, but I just wonder if they’d even do that.

(I’m probably just pessimistic about how much more they’ll spend since I’m used to seeing them not push their payroll to the limits)

[angelsnationtalk]

Maybe this is finally the year Arte goes over the tax like he said he'd do for the right player. 

A final farewell. 

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, Trendon said:

Maybe they’d package some prospects for  pre-arb reliever.

Without knowing their payroll constraints, it’s hard to know what is/isn’t realistic at this point besides the obvious outliers.

I think we have a decent amount of promising relief prospects who aren't too far away - Torres, Joyce, Ingram, Murphy.  We have to somewhat bridge the gap to them this year, though, which is why I'm hopeful Perry will look for some decent undervalued options that can help absorb innings until those guys are ready.  I think all of them could be ready sometime this season.

[BTH]

3 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Maybe this is finally the year Arte goes over the tax like he said he'd do for the right player. 

A final farewell. 

We can only hope.

It’s not like he’d be paying the bill at the end of the season, presuming a sale gets finalized by then.

[Warfarin]

2 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I agree that any move they do make would be along those lines, but I just wonder if they’d even do that.

(I’m probably just pessimistic about how much more they’ll spend since I’m used to seeing them not push their payroll to the limits)

I think a lot of us just assumed Arte wouldn't spend anything this offseason, or just spend the absolute minimum, but to his credit it seems they are investing in the team this year.  We certainly didn't have to add Renfroe (or Anderson, or Urshela) and said "we want to see what the kids can do" and start Adell or Moniak.  

Maybe he will continue to pleasantly surprise us.  I don't hold any illusions of grandeur and expect to see one of the star SSs added, but I'm hopeful he'll acquire a legit SS.

[DMVol]

14 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I think it's possible they can add more payroll.  I think the key things, as mentioned, are to stay below the luxury tax and avoid adding long-term debt (i.e. large contracts).  So Amed Rosario, just as an example, would probably get ~9mil in arbitration.  Adding him would push us to 200mil in payroll, but the long-term books would still remain clear for the next owner.  I think this is the type of move we'd see in terms of player acquisition.

You could do that and still add a reasonable priced RP...but Rosario would cost a good bit in a trade....Kinner-Alfalfa might be cheaper....

[BTH]

Just now, Warfarin said:

I think a lot of us just assumed Arte wouldn't spend anything this offseason, or just spend the absolute minimum, but to his credit it seems they are investing in the team this year.  We certainly didn't have to add Renfroe (or Anderson, or Urshela) and said "we want to see what the kids can do" and start Adell or Moniak.  

Maybe he will continue to pleasantly surprise us.  I don't hold any illusions of grandeur and expect to see one of the star SSs added, but I'm hopeful he'll acquire a legit SS.

He at least passed the threshold of not cutting payroll and elevating payroll past the end of 2022 payroll number.

Now’s the bigger threshold, and we’ll see how much further he’s willing to push the payroll.

[angelsnationtalk]

Just now, Trendon said:

We can only hope.

It’s not like he’d be paying the bill at the end of the season, presuming a sale gets finalized by then.

Like we've been hoping for years now. 

True, but i've gotta think he's had significant conversations with potential buyers and my assumption is they've all said to spend like he wants cuz they'll do the same. 

I was set on the Angels having a gap-year, but it seems like he's been given a green light to go for it. I think we will ultimately find when they make a decision for SS. 

Plus, if Arte sold the team in say.....July.... then wouldn't the new owner only be responsible for the remaining payroll from July-October + maybe luxury tax penalty? So in a way Arte and new owner wouldn't be paying too much

[Warfarin]

7 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Like we've been hoping for years now. 

True, but i've gotta think he's had significant conversations with potential buyers and my assumption is they've all said to spend like he wants cuz they'll do the same. 

I was set on the Angels having a gap-year, but it seems like he's been given a green light to go for it. I think we will ultimately find when they make a decision for SS. 

Plus, if Arte sold the team in say.....July.... then wouldn't the new owner only be responsible for the remaining payroll from July-October + maybe luxury tax penalty? So in a way Arte and new owner wouldn't be paying too much

If Ohtani didn't have his free agency pending next year, I'd more strongly consider the possibility that Arte might take a swing at one of the top SS.  But again, even the teams with the highest payrolls don't have 4 guys who have a luxury tax AAV of 35mil+ on multi-year deals.  Not the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees .. I don't think we will, either.  Ohtani will surely command that much, perhaps even over 40mil AAV.

I think we'll see the team acquire a SS on a one year deal, and the next ownership group will spend a ton of money to retain Ohtani, as well as whatever other moves are needed at the time.

[stormngt]

I don't think they add another MI.

IMO the front office believes Fletcher and Rengifo are both solid major leaguers.  I also think they are determined to at least play Walsh against righties.  Urshela will be utility infielder roaming all four positions and playing almost every day.

We have Soto as depth.

I think any new additions will be pitching.  We haven't improved the bullpen and we only are committed to 5 starting pitchers (Ohatani, Sandoval,  Detmer, Suarez, Anderson).  I see us adding a 6th starting pitcher. No one to be excited about.

Edited November 24, 2022 by stormngt

[DMVol]

1 minute ago, stormngt said:

I don't think they add another MI.

IMO the front office believes Fletcher and Rengifo are both solid major leaguers.  I also think they are determined to at least play Walsh against righties.rightness.  Urshela will be utility infielder roaming all four positions and playing almost every day.

We have Soto as depth.

I think any new additions will be pitching.  We haven't improved the bullpen and we only are committed to 5 starting pitchers (Ohatani, Sandoval,  Detmer, Suarez, Anderson).  I see us adding a 6th starting pitcher. No one to be excited about.

I think they are too but I don't think either is a SS.....

[Warfarin]

6 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I don't think they add another MI.

IMO the front office believes Fletcher and Rengifo are both solid major leaguers.  I also think they are determined to at least play Walsh against righties.rightness.  Urshela will be utility infielder roaming all four positions and playing almost every day.

We have Soto as depth.

I think any new additions will be pitching.  We haven't improved the bullpen and we only are committed to 5 starting pitchers (Ohatani, Sandoval,  Detmer, Suarez, Anderson).  I see us adding a 6th starting pitcher. No one to be excited about.

Yeah, it's possible.  I would still bet on them acquiring a SS, as I don't think either Fletcher or Rengifo grade out well defensively there, especially with the shift being eliminated.  But I did feel if they could only spend on one spot, it would have been the OF over SS, and that has already come to fruition.

I would still wager, though, on a modest SS acquisition, which will also help fortify our bench by (likely) pushing Rengifo into the super utility role.