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Angels acquire Gio Urshela from the Twins for Alejandro Hidalgo (DFA Diaz)


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5 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

The reason of "why not" is if we sign someone like Correa or Turner, who subsequently gets hurt and turns into another Pujols/Rendon/Upton, then this team is sunk for another 5-7 years.  This team cannot afford another misfire like that.

Yeah, I get it. And have agreed with that for years and years, and still agree with it.

The flip side though is that we're looking at an optimistic view of this team in a year being 50/50 retaining Ohtani. 

Let's say he walks because we continue to be a 4th place team. Then you have a continuing to age Trout, Rendon who's not likely to ever be the same guy he was in Washington, and then a whole lot of nothing. And a farm that's pretty weak, especially on the position player side.

I'm not suggesting "go for it". But I also recognize the farm rebuild didn't go as planned....

 

.... Adell at least for now is a massive letdown. He was the crown Jewel. Marsh also didn't pan out.

The rest were waiting on is guys like Soto(?).

 

I have no idea what the right path is. But I don't think there's enough talent in house to make this team a contender.

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5 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

The reason of "why not" is if we sign someone like Correa or Turner, who subsequently gets hurt and turns into another Pujols/Rendon/Upton, then this team is sunk for another 5-7 years.  This team cannot afford another misfire like that.

Yeah, I get it. And have agreed with that for years and years, and still agree with it.

The flip side though is that we're looking at an optimistic view of this team in a year being 50/50 retaining Ohtani. 

Let's say he walks because we continue to be a 4th place team. Then you have a continuing to age Trout, Rendon who's not likely to ever be the same guy he was in Washington, and then a whole lot of nothing. And a farm that's pretty weak, especially on the position player side.

I'm not suggesting "go for it". But I also recognize the farm rebuild didn't go as planned....

 

.... Adell at least for now is a massive letdown. He was the crown Jewel. Marsh also didn't pan out.

The rest were waiting on is guys like Soto(?).

 

I have no idea what the right path is. But I don't think there's enough talent in house to make this team a contender.

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4 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Yeah, I get it. And have agreed with that for years and years, and still agree with it.

The flip side though is that we're looking at an optimistic view of this team in a year being 50/50 retaining Ohtani. 

Let's say he walks because we continue to be a 4th place team. Then you have a continuing to age Trout, Rendon who's not likely to ever be the same guy he was in Washington, and then a whole lot of nothing. And a farm that's pretty weak, especially on the position player side.

I'm not suggesting "go for it". But I also recognize the farm rebuild didn't go as planned....

 

.... Adell at least for now is a massive letdown. He was the crown Jewel. Marsh also didn't pan out.

The rest were waiting on is guys like Soto(?).

 

I have no idea what the right path is. But I don't think there's enough talent in house to make this team a contender.

The answer is fairly simple.  Look at the Rays and Indians Guardians.  They have like one third of our payroll but are constantly competitive.  They excel at drafting and developing talent.  That is what we need to do - emulate what they do.

I think, for years, Arte failed to invest in the necessary infrastructure to accomplish this.  He would make the big splash, which casual fans could see, but he never invested in the minors / drafting / developing / etc.  I think he actually has started to do so recently, but it is hard to tell how much.  That is how our new ownership can truly make a difference - investing into that infrastructure in the same way that the Dodgers and other organizations do, so that we can develop good, cheap young talent.  I think Minasian actually is very good at that too, or at least he has the pedigree for it, so maybe we will start to see a wave of good young talent come through that actually performs well in the majors.

The one thing Minasian should NOT do is get impatient and throw a ton of money at one star free agent.  And personally, I think he is smart enough to avoid doing that.

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3 hours ago, Warfarin said:

The answer is fairly simple.  Look at the Rays and Indians.  They have like one third of our payroll but are constantly competitive.  They excel at drafting and developing talent.  That is what we need to do - emulate what they do.

I think, for years, Arte failed to invest in the necessary infrastructure to accomplish this.  He would make the big splash, which casual fans could see, but he never invested in the minors / drafting / developing / etc.  I think he actually has started to do so recently, but it is hard to tell how much.  That is how our new ownership can truly make a difference - investing into that infrastructure in the same way that the Dodgers and other organizations do, so that we can develop good, cheap young talent.  I think Minasian actually is very good at that too, or at least he has the pedigree for it, so maybe we will start to see a wave of good young talent come through that actually performs well in the majors.

The one thing Minasian should NOT do is get impatient and throw a ton of money at one star free agent.  And personally, I think he is smart enough to avoid doing that.

It's a lot easier to say "be like the Rays" than it is to actually do it. Yes, they should continue to try and be more like the Rays, but does that help the team right now? The IndGuardians have kept their ship afloat by selling off talent rather than spending money to retain it. Sure they stay competitive but they've traded away a legit chance at the world seres IMO. 

The team simply needs to get better at player / talent evaluation. The money piece doesn't really matter. If they think Trey Turner is a sure fire bet to put up 5 war a year for the next 5 years they should go out and sign him. If there is a left fielder they think can produce above league average available on a one year deal they should sign him too. The money isn't really what's important, because if you are bringing in the right players that all sorts itself out.

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5 hours ago, TempeAngel said:

Cracking Up Lol GIF by Rodney Dangerfield

before he took over at first from pujols, he was playing occasionally in the OF for the halos, playing 18 games there in 2021 and 2 games in the OF in 2022.

he also played in the OF during the all star game.

Edited by Tank
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13 minutes ago, Tank said:

before he took over at first from pujols, he was playing occasionally in the OF for the halos, playing 18 games there in 2021 and 2 games in the OF in 2022.

he also played in the OF during the all star game.

I wouldn't use Walsh too much in the outfield since he's better defensively at 1B, but Minasian is big into platoons and matchups, and having that kind of positional flexibility and depth to mix and match in big game situations is huge. 

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54 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

It's a lot easier to say "be like the Rays" than it is to actually do it. Yes, they should continue to try and be more like the Rays, but does that help the team right now? The IndGuardians have kept their ship afloat by selling off talent rather than spending money to retain it. Sure they stay competitive but they've traded away a legit chance at the world seres IMO. 

The team simply needs to get better at player / talent evaluation. The money piece doesn't really matter. If they think Trey Turner is a sure fire bet to put up 5 war a year for the next 5 years they should go out and sign him. If there is a left fielder they think can produce above league average available on a one year deal they should sign him too. The money isn't really what's important, because if you are bringing in the right players that all sorts itself out.

Right, I know - easier said than done.  That said, I think it's pretty clear that Arte failed to invest in this aspect of the team for awhile, and there are still reports that our minor leaguers have pretty poor conditions compared to a lot of their peers.  It would make a lot more sense to me, for example, to instead of spending 35mil/yr on a player, to spend that same amount on all the infrastructure necessary to help pump out elite prospects.  Easier said than done, sure, but clearly there are teams that excel at it, so we should learn from those clubs and do the best we can to match their results.

As for the Turner example - I don't think any team can ever know that for any FA they sign.  I'm sure every team signs a guy, hoping they'll be a stud for a number of years before they start to tail off, but in a lot instances, random injuries and/or ineffectiveness pops up earlier than expected.  Did we anticipate Rendon would have his hip issues and be rendered fairly ineffective so soon after signing his contract?  I'm sure if Eppler had an idea of how quickly he'd go downhill, he wouldn't have signed him.

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1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

Right, I know - easier said than done.  That said, I think it's pretty clear that Arte failed to invest in this aspect of the team for awhile, and there are still reports that our minor leaguers have pretty poor conditions compared to a lot of their peers.  It would make a lot more sense to me, for example, to instead of spending 35mil/yr on a player, to spend that same amount on all the infrastructure necessary to help pump out elite prospects.  Easier said than done, sure, but clearly there are teams that excel at it, so we should learn from those clubs and do the best we can to match their results.

As for the Turner example - I don't think any team can ever know that for any FA they sign.  I'm sure every team signs a guy, hoping they'll be a stud for a number of years before they start to tail off, but in a lot instances, random injuries and/or ineffectiveness pops up earlier than expected.  Did we anticipate Rendon would have his hip issues and be rendered fairly ineffective so soon after signing his contract?  I'm sure if Eppler had an idea of how quickly he'd go downhill, he wouldn't have signed him.

Those player development costs are comparatively insignificant. Ultimately Arte did not think they were important. My hope is that a new owner will feel differently.

Obviously no one can know future performance with certainty. The point I’m trying to make is that the talent evaluation component is the key. They need to be signing the guys that they are confident in, rather than the guys they can fit in a budget. It seems like every year the team spend right up to its budget rather than saving some cash one year and spending it in another, or getting one good player instead of three or four cheap players. It’s been finances driving player evaluation rather than the other way around… if that makes sense.

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7 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Those player development costs are comparatively insignificant. Ultimately Arte did not think they were important. My hope is that a new owner will feel differently.

Obviously no one can know future performance with certainty. The point I’m trying to make is that the talent evaluation component is the key. They need to be signing the guys that they are confident in, rather than the guys they can fit in a budget. It seems like every year the team spend right up to its budget rather than saving some cash one year and spending it in another, or getting one good player instead of three or four cheap players. It’s been finances driving player evaluation rather than the other way around… if that makes sense.

Right, it does.

That said, there are signs for optimism.  Someone (or rather, some group) is about to spend 3+ billion to buy this team, and I imagine they will not approach the team with a constrained payroll.  We will likely, as of next offseason, see the team willing to push significantly above the luxury tax.  We will also likely see them invest in building the team on the whole.

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15 hours ago, Tank said:

before he took over at first from pujols, he was playing occasionally in the OF for the halos, playing 18 games there in 2021 and 2 games in the OF in 2022.

he also played in the OF during the all star game.

I literally had to read this twice to figure out this was a serious point, and you weren't making a Rodney Dangerfield joke.

(I've had a cold the past few days, head is foggy from dayquil)

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16 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

It's a lot easier to say "be like the Rays" than it is to actually do it. Yes, they should continue to try and be more like the Rays, but does that help the team right now? The IndGuardians have kept their ship afloat by selling off talent rather than spending money to retain it. Sure they stay competitive but they've traded away a legit chance at the world seres IMO. 

The team simply needs to get better at player / talent evaluation. The money piece doesn't really matter. If they think Trey Turner is a sure fire bet to put up 5 war a year for the next 5 years they should go out and sign him. If there is a left fielder they think can produce above league average available on a one year deal they should sign him too. The money isn't really what's important, because if you are bringing in the right players that all sorts itself out.

 

15 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Right, I know - easier said than done.  That said, I think it's pretty clear that Arte failed to invest in this aspect of the team for awhile, and there are still reports that our minor leaguers have pretty poor conditions compared to a lot of their peers.  It would make a lot more sense to me, for example, to instead of spending 35mil/yr on a player, to spend that same amount on all the infrastructure necessary to help pump out elite prospects.  Easier said than done, sure, but clearly there are teams that excel at it, so we should learn from those clubs and do the best we can to match their results.

As for the Turner example - I don't think any team can ever know that for any FA they sign.  I'm sure every team signs a guy, hoping they'll be a stud for a number of years before they start to tail off, but in a lot instances, random injuries and/or ineffectiveness pops up earlier than expected.  Did we anticipate Rendon would have his hip issues and be rendered fairly ineffective so soon after signing his contract?  I'm sure if Eppler had an idea of how quickly he'd go downhill, he wouldn't have signed him.

I think we all agree that the "Rays" model is the proffered way. And I would totally advocate for it. And spending hasn't really done us any favors 

That said...

As of now, our decision to focus on the farm the past 5 or 6 years has yielded very little. Some interesting pitching prospects, but very little in terms of impact. And not a lot down there exactly gives hope to he patient, at least in the near term.

And our biggest bullet so to speak (Adell) has been a massive letdown. 

I've always been one of the Arte defenders on here, and have been in the patient camp since 2016 or so when it was obvious a rebuild was needed.

But we're looking at a very real scenario coming quickly that Ohtani walks, and Trout and Rendon are old men on a team that still isn't producing a lot of talent.

Ward, Walsh, Adell and Marsh succeeding would have made this all a totally different picture. Adell can still work out, hopefully Ward is legit, hopefully Walsh bounces back. But as of now those are huge gambles, IMO, to bank on.

We've already seen an Ohtani only show. And he's as likely gone in 2024 as he is to still be here. Trout WILL be hurt again. Rendon will never be what we hoped. 

The smart move would be patientce... because the risk is so high in signing big money. But we're also at the point where there's no end in sight to end the playoff drought. Couple it with the bad side stories (Skaggs, cat fights with Anaheim, etc etc) that pretty soon the crowds will be Oakland level. 

Just from a product standpoint they're going to have to do something to avoid that.

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On 11/21/2022 at 10:36 PM, AngelsLakersFan said:

It's a lot easier to say "be like the Rays" than it is to actually do it. Yes, they should continue to try and be more like the Rays, but does that help the team right now? 


People here love to talk about emulating the Ray's but they wouldn't have a stomach for it.  Their greatest attribute is their ability to spot/acquire talent in other organizations. Unfortunately their primary source for acquiring said players has been to trade off their established players.

It works, but it makes for an awful fan experience to see guys come up, become players, and then see them go somewhere else.

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18 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:


People here love to talk about emulating the Ray's but they wouldn't have a stomach for it.  Their greatest attribute is their ability to spot/acquire talent in other organizations. Unfortunately their primary source for acquiring said players has been to trade off their established players.

It works, but it makes for an awful fan experience to see guys come up, become players, and then see them go somewhere else.

Perhaps the more apt comparison for a big market team, then, would be to emulate the Dodgers and Friedman instead.  They essentially do what the Rays do in terms of developing talent, but they keep their star players instead and just get even better yearly (until playoff time, of course).

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2 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Perhaps the more apt comparison for a big market team, then, would be to emulate the Dodgers and Friedman instead.  They essentially do what the Rays do in terms of developing talent, but they keep their star players instead and just get even better yearly (until playoff time, of course).

Yep, the Dodgers are the better route and honestly the two teams do it very differently.  LA may have the best drafting team in MLB... TB doesn't draft well at all, really outside of 1st round arms they typically do a really shitty job of drafting.  Nobody better at finding a guy on the cusp and elevating their game at the MLB level than TB, imho. Their pro scouting team is top tier.

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