Official 2022-23 Offseason Hot Stove Thread

[Stradling]

@Docwaukee are you saying Soto is like those guys? 

[Angel Oracle]

22 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Oh I agree fully.  There's a reason organizations try to calculate surplus value and have it correlate to actual financial value.  

In our case, though, Moreno likely wants to somewhat reduce actual dollars spent and is probably more amenable to trading some future/surplus value, because what does he really care about future value?

So for example - Adames, if on the open market, would probably command a salary of 25-30mil.  He's not, however, and is likely to earn around 10mil in arbitration.  So they can get a good amount of value for a "low" cost compared to what he'd get on the open market.  To bridge that gap of course, they'd have to toss in players who will have future value, and so on and so forth.

This route is probably more preferable to Moreno than paying market value for a free agent SS and paying that kind of salary.  He could pay Turner 35mil AAV for a 5 fWAR player, or instead pay 9mil for a 3 fWAR player in Rosario, along with the extra "prospect cost."

So I guess my point is, while acquiring that player via trade will cost some financial resources, those resources will be significantly less than if that player was on the open market.  And for Moreno, given he likely wants to spend as little as possible to help upgrade the team, I am guessing the preferred route is to use prospect currency and just pay less actual dollars in the process.

Adames, like Anderson, has around a 5.0 WAR average the past 3 full seasons.

He has been far more healthy than Anderson though, at least 139 games played the past 3 full seasons.

If they are going to trade for one of them, I go with the healthier of the two.  Of course, that likely means Adames commanding more in exchange?   Maybe either two top 10 prospects and two 11-20 prospects, or one top 5 and one 6-10 and two 11-15?

Adames will be just 29 in 2025.  If the new ownership wants a long term already steady SS, he could extend Adames a year from now and either trade Neto to fill another need or trade Rengifo to do so and move Neto to 2B?

I wouldn’t be sad though if they stuck with the plan of Neto being the SS a year from now.   Keeps the key prospects here.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Angel Oracle

[TempeAngel]

9 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Hey pal, no one says he’s like those guys, so you are having an argument no one is making.  At the same time no one should assume his results were because he tore the cover off the ball.
Or as you would say smh. 

Funny you edited from "Hey Dick" to "Hey pal". 

[mmc]

 

[Stradling]

17 minutes ago, TempeAngel said:

Funny you edited from "Hey Dick" to "Hey pal". 

I agree. I should have never edited it. 

[Stradling]

12 minutes ago, mmc said:

 

I thought he might be an Angel target. 

[TempeAngel]

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I agree. I should have never edited it. 

smh

[TempeAngel]

27 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Adames, like Anderson, has around a 5.0 WAR average the past 3 full seasons.

He has been far more healthy than Anderson though, at least 139 games played the past 3 full seasons.

If they are going to trade for one of them, I go with the healthier of the two.  Of course, that likely means Adames commanding more in exchange?   Maybe either two top 10 prospects and two 11-20 prospects, or one top 5 and one 6-10 and two 11-15?

Adames will be just 29 in 2025.  If the new ownership wants a long term already steady SS, he could extend Adames a year from now and either trade Neto to fill another need or trade Rengifo to do so and move Neto to 2B?

I wouldn’t be sad though if they stuck with the plan of Neto being the SS a year from now.   Keeps the key prospects here.

I like both guys but I agree that Anderson's health is a concern. Adames would be great get. I wonder what it would take?

[Angels 1961]

19 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I thought he might be an Angel target. 

Lorenzen will be 6th man in rotation

[mmc]

 

[mmc]

 

[Pancake Bear]

52 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Lorenzen will be 6th man in rotation

Our friend, the Lion, concurs (maybe):

I like Lorenzen. I'd like him even better as a swing man than a guaranteed starter. 

[Jason]

4 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Our friend, the Lion, concurs (maybe):

I like Lorenzen. I'd like him even better as a swing man than a guaranteed starter. 

I agree but he found some success as a starter last year so I can see why that may be a deal breaker for him. 

[TempeAngel]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

@Docwaukee are you saying Soto is like those guys? 

Pretty sure it's a typo or a mistake from him because I doubt he would try to defend that Soto was like Vazquez, Mayfield, Wade and Duffy last year like you did...

I think he meant Rojas not Soto.

[Stradling]

12 minutes ago, TempeAngel said:

Pretty sure it's a typo or a mistake from him because I doubt he would try to defend the fact Soto was like those guys last year like you did...

I didn’t. But continue being you.  It’s adorable. SMH.
If you want to believe Soto is ready to start in the majors in a year where if you don’t compete and make the playoffs you’ll lose the best player in the game, go for it.  I need more than 18 games of .500 babip to convince me.  Was it the two walks or the zero barrels?  

[TempeAngel]

29 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I didn’t. But continue being you.  It’s adorable. SMH.
If you want to believe Soto is ready to start in the majors in a year where if you don’t compete and make the playoffs you’ll lose the best player in the game, go for it.  I need more than 18 games of .500 babip to convince me.  Was it the two walks or the zero barrels?  

You really don't understand this? Really?

Doc's post was about not having the depth to have MLB level players available when needed. He said the result is you end up with 4A guys like Mayfield, Velazquez, Wade and Duffy absorbing at bats.

I agree 100%. I think you do too.

He added Soto on the list also. Soto is not an example of this. He wasn't last year. He got called up on September 17 to get a taste after a really good year in AA - much like O'Hoppe.

I now think he meant Rojas not Soto.

[Lou]

Worst argument ever

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, Lou said:

Worst argument ever

You forgot lifetime and Canadian lifetime

[Docwaukee]

32 minutes ago, TempeAngel said:

Pretty sure it's a typo or a mistake from him because I doubt he would try to defend that Soto was like Vazquez, Mayfield, Wade and Duffy last year like you did...

I think he meant Rojas not Soto.

It wasn't a mistake.  He was great last year in what will probably amount to the best 18 game stretch of his entire career.   I like the kid.  I think he can be a decent bench guy on an ok team especially if you have two very good starters at the MIF positions.   He's defense first and the bat is nothing special in all likelihood unless he's become a completely different player all of a sudden.  

My point is that I'm not giving him 350 at bats off the bench.   Or what I should say is that I'm not super comfortable trusting the MIF to a 'breakout', a guy that's struggled with the bat for two seasons, and a rookie who had his first league avg. season as a hitter in the minors and then came up a did something so unsustainable it's worth counting the same as if he did the complete opposite.  

You said don't make lateral moves.  I'm saying do exactly that.  Get a league average bat who plays solid D in the MIF.  

Right now he's the primary backup IFer which means you're essentially counting on him pretty significantly.   Don't count on him.  It's actually not fair to him. 

And it's really not just about him.  But about the entirety of the starters and depth at those positions.  Right now you'd be setting yourself up for sub par and potentially catastrophic performance.   

 

[Warfarin]

10 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

It wasn't a mistake.  He was great last year in what will probably amount to the best 18 game stretch of his entire career.   I like the kid.  I think he can be a decent bench guy on an ok team especially if you have two very good starters at the MIF positions.   He's defense first and the bat is nothing special in all likelihood unless he's become a completely different player all of a sudden.  

My point is that I'm not giving him 350 at bats off the bench.   Or what I should say is that I'm not super comfortable trusting the MIF to a 'breakout', a guy that's struggled with the bat for two seasons, and a rookie who had his first league avg. season as a hitter in the minors and then came up a did something so unsustainable it's worth counting the same as if he did the complete opposite.  

You said don't make lateral moves.  I'm saying do exactly that.  Get a league average bat who plays solid D in the MIF.  

Right now he's the primary backup IFer which means you're essentially counting on him pretty significantly.   Don't count on him.  It's actually not fair to him. 

And it's really not just about him.  But about the entirety of the starters and depth at those positions.  Right now you'd be setting yourself up for sub par and potentially catastrophic performance.   

 

The Braves, under Anthopolous, have been remarkably good at promoting seemingly decent prospects and making them even better than their minor league record indicated.  Not saying that is necessarily what is happening with Soto, but I am optimistic that Minasian has perhaps brought some of his learnings under Anthopolous and helped apply it to the Angels' minor league development process.

There's no way Soto is the offensive player he showed, because his BABIP indicated he was very lucky, but he did have a significant leap in terms of plate discipline improvement (BB% went up quite a bit, K% dropped) - this is usually the hallmark sign of a young player who had a leap in development.  

Time will tell what that amounts to, but I think what it did show is that Soto is a legit MLB player - we'll see whether that's a future backup or a veritable MLB starting SS.

[ukyah]

On 11/26/2022 at 12:13 PM, Angelsfan1984 said:

Completely agree, however there’s going to be a new hitting coach. Perhaps his approach improves whereas no amount of coaching can fix rendons vaginal lining. 

calling hurt players pussies is so lame. there's just no explaining it to people who say such dumb shit about the best players in the world.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, ukyah said:

calling hurt players pussies is so lame. there's just no explaining it to people who say such dumb shit about the best players in the world.

It’s really fucking dumb. 

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

The Braves, under Anthopolous, have been remarkably good at promoting seemingly decent prospects and making them even better than their minor league record indicated.  Not saying that is necessarily what is happening with Soto, but I am optimistic that Minasian has perhaps brought some of his learnings under Anthopolous and helped apply it to the Angels' minor league development process.

There's no way Soto is the offensive player he showed, because his BABIP indicated he was very lucky, but he did have a significant leap in terms of plate discipline improvement (BB% went up quite a bit, K% dropped) - this is usually the hallmark sign of a young player who had a leap in development.  

Time will tell what that amounts to, but I think what it did show is that Soto is a legit MLB player - we'll see whether that's a future backup or a veritable MLB starting SS.

again, I like the kid.  he's a nice little player and really this isn't even about him, but 'turned a corner' offensively resulted in a 104 wRC+ and a big part of that was his .345 BABIP.  And that was in AA after putting up a couple year of a wRC+ of about 70.  

He's potentially and future something perhaps.  If things were left as is, he'd be getting at least half a seasons worth of at bats.  And if he fails, who behind him?  All the rest of the crap that didn't work last year.  

[Stradling]

He drew a lot of walks in the minors this year. In the majors he was Fletcher with success. Granted he hit the ball harder, but not hard. But 49% swing rate, 3% walk rate. 

[TempeAngel]

32 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

It wasn't a mistake.  He was great last year in what will probably amount to the best 18 game stretch of his entire career.   I like the kid.  I think he can be a decent bench guy on an ok team especially if you have two very good starters at the MIF positions.   He's defense first and the bat is nothing special in all likelihood unless he's become a completely different player all of a sudden.  

My point is that I'm not giving him 350 at bats off the bench.   Or what I should say is that I'm not super comfortable trusting the MIF to a 'breakout', a guy that's struggled with the bat for two seasons, and a rookie who had his first league avg. season as a hitter in the minors and then came up a did something so unsustainable it's worth counting the same as if he did the complete opposite.  

You said don't make lateral moves.  I'm saying do exactly that.  Get a league average bat who plays solid D in the MIF.  

Right now he's the primary backup IFer which means you're essentially counting on him pretty significantly.   Don't count on him.  It's actually not fair to him. 

And it's really not just about him.  But about the entirety of the starters and depth at those positions.  Right now you'd be setting yourself up for sub par and potentially catastrophic performance.   

 

Got it. I obviously agree with your premise. It was brutal watching Velazquez, Wade, Duffy, Mayfield and others last year. Three of those guys were on the opening day roster. The fourth, Velazquez, came up and was starting after one week. 

I  just didn't understand why you added Soto to the list. He was not part of our lack of depth last year but was listed with the guys who were. Soto is 22, they are 28-32. Personally, I would like to see Soto start the season at AAA.

I would like us to add short term, cost effective depth at SS this year that is an upgrade to what we have now. I posted on another thread earlier today I would love to make a play for Adames. I don't know if the Brewers would move him now or at what cost but two years of control would be perfect. It would be an upgrade like Renfroe and Urshela but not a major move that ties us up and gets in the way of re-signing Ohtani. There are others out there in the trade market and it feels like Minasian is looking there versus the FA market.