Lessons Learned from the 2022 Los Angeles Angels Bullpen: Leads gained and lost

[Docwaukee]

Here's a fun one.  

In 154 games this season, at the end of the 5th inning, the Angels have been leading 68 times, tied 24 times and behind 62 times. 

ahead, tied, behind at the end of the inning.  

5th - 68, 24, 62
6th - 70, 15, 69
7th - 65, 19, 70
8th - 63, 15, 76
9th - 61, 13, 80

So a net of 18 losses when ahead or tied after 5 innings.  -7 from the end of the 5th to the end of the 6th.    

Anyone want to join my pen depth campaign?  

[AngelsLakersFan]

With some added health and improvement we may see a few more starters pitching through the 6th next year.

[Warfarin]

7 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

Here's a fun one.  

In 154 games this season, at the end of the 5th inning, the Angels have been leading 68 times, tied 24 times and behind 62 times. 

ahead, tied, behind at the end of the inning.  

5th - 68, 24, 62
6th - 70, 15, 69
7th - 65, 19, 70
8th - 63, 15, 76
9th - 61, 13, 80

So a net of 18 losses when ahead or tied after 5 innings.  -7 from the end of the 5th to the end of the 6th.    

Anyone want to join my pen depth campaign?  

While I definitely agree with you, it feels like they've been pretty solid this past month or so.  We can certainly use some pen upgrades, but perhaps they are turning the corner now as a unit?

There are some pretty good looking arms in AA as well, so maybe there is some room for optimism.  What I hope Minasian will do is what some of the other top GMs in the game do - find undervalued relievers and make them good.  

I think @Jeff Fletcher mentioned it in another thread too, but something that would help our pen a lot is actually a better offense.  Our pen has had to hold the slimmest of leads for long stretches of time, simply because our offense doesn't score.  

[Taylor]

Leave it to Doc to quantify yet another way to say the Angels suck. 

[Swordsman78]

2 hours ago, Warfarin said:

While I definitely agree with you, it feels like they've been pretty solid this past month or so.  We can certainly use some pen upgrades, but perhaps they are turning the corner now as a unit?

There are some pretty good looking arms in AA as well, so maybe there is some room for optimism.  What I hope Minasian will do is what some of the other top GMs in the game do - find undervalued relievers and make them good.  

I think @Jeff Fletcher mentioned it in another thread too, but something that would help our pen a lot is actually a better offense.  Our pen has had to hold the slimmest of leads for long stretches of time, simply because our offense doesn't score.  

Excellent post.  I was thinking the same.  Seems like it's been 3 seasons in 1.   Fast start, Slump, Long Road to Recovery.

Any stats coming out of the Slump period are going to be awful.

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Warfarin said:

While I definitely agree with you, it feels like they've been pretty solid this past month or so.  We can certainly use some pen upgrades, but perhaps they are turning the corner now as a unit?

There are some pretty good looking arms in AA as well, so maybe there is some room for optimism.  What I hope Minasian will do is what some of the other top GMs in the game do - find undervalued relievers and make them good.  

I think @Jeff Fletcher mentioned it in another thread too, but something that would help our pen a lot is actually a better offense.  Our pen has had to hold the slimmest of leads for long stretches of time, simply because our offense doesn't score.  

The offense can't score so lots of pressure on the pen.  Poor pen performance and zero chance of coming back due to a crappy offense.  More pressure on the starters to be perfect because they know the offense isn't going to get them any runs and the pen is likely going to blow the lead.  

And btw, over the last month they have 1.2 WPA.  But -0.8 WAR because of a very high FIP relative to their ERA.   K rates are meh.  bb rate is meh.  hr rate isn't good.  low BABIP.  The highest LOB% in baseball over that time.  So I would say they're out performing their peripherals and it's not sustainable.  

[Chuck]

 

[eligrba]

4 hours ago, Warfarin said:

While I definitely agree with you, it feels like they've been pretty solid this past month or so.  We can certainly use some pen upgrades, but perhaps they are turning the corner now as a unit?

There are some pretty good looking arms in AA as well, so maybe there is some room for optimism.  What I hope Minasian will do is what some of the other top GMs in the game do - find undervalued relievers and make them good.  

I think @Jeff Fletcher mentioned it in another thread too, but something that would help our pen a lot is actually a better offense.  Our pen has had to hold the slimmest of leads for long stretches of time, simply because our offense doesn't score.  

More specific to a better offense, having league average replacement production from hitters 5-9 would make a huge impact.  Having a hitting philosophy incorporating "productive outs" as well as putting the ball in play where it is pitched would also hugely help.

[Docwaukee]

I would like to point out that the original post doesn't just denote a bad bullpen but it's highly indicative of across the board problems for this team.  Yes, the pen has not performed well, but to me it tells you one good thing.  The starting pitching has done a nice job through the first 5 innings.  But the failure for inning 6+ is pen struggles, a lack of offense, and starters not getting deep enough into games.  

There's not much you can do to improve how deep the starters can go other that hope some of the young guys like Sandoval, Detmers and Suarez become more efficient with experience.  I do think adding a mid level starter who can also get you 160 innings is important though.  

The offensive improvements seem pretty obvious and I hope the focus is on LF, 1b and much much better depth.  

And the pen is a crapshoot of what to do.  They're gonna have to find some clean peanuts for innings 5-7 and lock down the 8th and 9th.  And just hope that volatility among Herget, Quijada, Loup and Tepera works in our favor.  On top of that, they're gonna have to rely on getting strong performances from guys in AA right now.  Which is a pretty tall ask in my opinion.  

[tdawg87]

Imagine having a guy who throws 98+ coming in after Herget's wiffle ball shit. 

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

Imagine having a guy who throws 98+ coming in after Herget's wiffle ball shit. 

how about one that can hit 103?

[tdawg87]

25 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

how about one that can hit 103?

103 is above 98 so yes.

[Chuck]

54 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

how about one that can hit 103?

 

28 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

103 is above 98 so yes.

I know a guy!  

 

[tdawg87]

Fuck it.

Quijada in the 7th, Herget in the 8th, Joyce in the 9th. 

If nothing else, hitters would be thrown off-balance. 

[Duren, Duren]

They have been better since Herget returned. He's been all over the place this year. Long and middle relief, now closer. Not sure I'm comfortable with him as a closer next year but so far, so good. Junkball pitchers have made great closers before, but Herget needs excellent control to be effective. 

Would Iglesias have made much difference this year? Hard to say due to overall team issues. But a better offense automatically makes life easier for all relievers. 

Not the most dramatic area of need for the team, but an upgrade in depth would help. 

 

[Angel Oracle]

7 hours ago, Swordsman78 said:

Excellent post.  I was thinking the same.  Seems like it's been 3 seasons in 1.   Fast start, Slump, Long Road to Recovery.

Any stats coming out of the Slump period are going to be awful.

24-13 followed by 20-48 followed by 25-25, yep a tale of 3 seasons.

[Angel Oracle]

Of the guys in AA (Joyce, Torres, Murphy, Ingram, etc.), which ones best project at the MLB level and how far away is each one?

[TempeAngel]

10 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Our pen has had to hold the slimmest of leads for long stretches of time, simply because our offense doesn't score.  

Agree, this really is a factor. A better offense could make the playoffs with this bullpen.

[TempeAngel]

If you look at the attached WAA by position the Angels Relief Pitching wasn't great at 15 overall but they are 30th at Catcher, 29th at First Base, 29th at Third Base and and 28th at Left Field. 

It's those four positions that really explain the Angels lack of success this season.

Not relief pitcher. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022.shtml

[BTH]

They need more relievers who throw gas.

I’m tired of watching Jaime Barría lob in 90-91 mph fastballs.

The Angels have one (1) reliever who throws gas: José Quijada.

The rest have fastballs around the league average or below it.

[Warfarin]

10 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

The offense can't score so lots of pressure on the pen.  Poor pen performance and zero chance of coming back due to a crappy offense.  More pressure on the starters to be perfect because they know the offense isn't going to get them any runs and the pen is likely going to blow the lead.  

And btw, over the last month they have 1.2 WPA.  But -0.8 WAR because of a very high FIP relative to their ERA.   K rates are meh.  bb rate is meh.  hr rate isn't good.  low BABIP.  The highest LOB% in baseball over that time.  So I would say they're out performing their peripherals and it's not sustainable.  

9 hours ago, eligrba said:

More specific to a better offense, having league average replacement production from hitters 5-9 would make a huge impact.  Having a hitting philosophy incorporating "productive outs" as well as putting the ball in play where it is pitched would also hugely help.

I think it is all connected together, and improving the offense would have a huge positive impact on the pen.  

Right now, the lineup has been fairly consistent - Rengifo, Trout, Ohtani, Ward, then a bunch of random combinations thereafter.  The top 4 have been rather solid.

The pathway to improving should be fairly simple and cheap - a LHH OF (Pederson? Gallo?), a 1B (Bell? Abreu?), and someone who can reliably backup 3B/1B (Drury?).  Signing those 3, IMO, would likely cost 30mil or so in payroll.  Toss in a decent SP, and take a few flyers on relievers (i.e. no big money), and that should suffice.

If Rendon is healthy, we can see:  Rengifo 2B, Trout CF, Ohtani DH, Ward RF, Pederson LF, Rendon 3B, Bell/Abru 1B, Stassi C, Fletcher SS.  A bench of a backup C, Thaiss 1B/3B/C, Drury 2B/3B/1B, and Moniak or some decent backup OF.

Even if Stassi and Fletcher struggle again, that lineup should be pretty strong on the whole with decent depth.

[Tank]

I was told there wouldn’t be any math here. 

[Docwaukee]

After some thought, I doubt a better offense makes the pen much better.  It could put more pressure in certain situations where you're down by 3 or something and the offense rallies back.  

I'm just not willing to give them a pass.  They've seen the 8th lowest number of high leverage situations in all of baseball.  They've had the fewest number of days pitching with 0 days rest.  They have the 5th lowest number of games in relief.  They're 13th in total innings.  They have four guys over 50ip, 2 over 60 and 1 over 70 (Barria the long guy).    There are about 140 guys with 50 or more innings so over 4 per team.  They're 22nd in WPA.  

I just can't give them a pass because of 'extenuating circumstances'.  They're not that good and are gonna need some luck to be good next year.  

[Angel Oracle]

3 hours ago, Trendon said:

They need more relievers who throw gas.

I’m tired of watching Jaime Barría lob in 90-91 mph fastballs.

The Angels have one (1) reliever who throws gas: José Quijada.

The rest have fastballs around the league average or below it.

Wantz isn’t far off, touches 95.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

Wantz isn’t far off, touches 95.

The MLB average for fastball velocity this season is 93.9 mph.

Wantz’s fastball averages 93.7 mph.

 

So it’s still below MLB average.