Off Season Priorities

[jsnpritchett]

7 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

Lineup;

1. Rengifo ss

2, Trout CF

3. Correa; SS

4. Othani Dh

5. Rendon: 3rd

6. Ward Rf

7. Walsh: 1st

8. Stassi

9. Flecther, Adell, Moniak 

 

 

 

You have two SS and no 2B (presumably Rengifo?).  And are you suggesting putting Fletcher in LF sometimes?  I realize he's done that before, but if he's seeing time in LF next year, that will likely signal that once again something has gone horribly wrong.

[Warfarin]

4 hours ago, Trendon said:

My number one priority would be power bats, be it at 1B, 2B, SS, or LF.

There’s no slug in the Angels lineup after the top 4.

Would love to sign Pederson to play LF.  Sure, he's not that good against LHP, but he mashes RHP and draws walks.  He's been a consistent offensive player, and that is something this team definitely needs.

As for 1B - I guess that depends on whether they think Walsh will recover or not.  If he can go back to being 2021 Walsh, then he's a fine solution.  If not - Josh Bell could be an option worth looking at.

SS and 2B are tricky.  I think we have some promising youth coming, but no real solution in the next year.  I like Rengifo as a utility player who can play 2B, 3B, and SS on occasion, but I don't think I'd necessarily have him penciled in as the every day 2B.  This could be an area we look to improve - Segura, Kolton Wong, etc are free agents (if their options are declined) who can likely be had on modest deals, which would enable Rengifo to assume a utility role.

I think with SS, we will just have to accept Fletcher as the answer for now, although Soto's debut has been a pleasant surprise.

So, next year, perhaps:  2B Segura, CF Trout, DH Ohtani, 3B Rendon, LF Pederson, RF Ward, 1B Walsh (?), C Stassi, SS Fletcher (or Soto?).  Bench:  "veteran" backup C, IF Rengifo, C/1B/3B Thaiss, OF Adell or Moniak.

Perhaps something like that - fairly easy to accomplish, and should help lengthen the lineup.

[gurn67]

6 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

A good take, with some caveats.

The problem is getting that right package that justifies trading a historic talent. And let's also consider recent events. Presumably Arte had already decided to sell the Angels when the trade deadline rolled around this year. The fact that Ohtani wasn't traded implies one or both of two things: 1) Arte felt that Shohei increased the value of the team enough to keep him, and 2) The Angels weren't offered an offer they couldn't refuse (like the one you hypothesize). Assuming the sale doesn't go down until late in the offseason at the earliest, chances are Ohtani won't be traded before the year starts, and that means he probably won't be traded--if at all--until the deadline, and while I do think the Angels would still get a good prospect or three, it won't be what you are asking for. 

And more to the point, we just don't know what the new owner will want. Maybe he/she/they will open up the purse-strings and make Shohei an offer he can't refuse (say, 8/$400M with an opt-out after two years), or maybe they look at the org and decide a rebuild is in order. 

As far as not signing a top shortstop, I'm veering in this direction too, which is why I think a solid bench/platoon signing is likely - sort of like a Tommy La Stella type: a bat first, but adequate defender, and someone who isn't going to utterly embarrass himself as a starter. But I don't think they'll stand pat. I think Rengifo's breakout is legit and Fletcher will be closer to 2018-19 than 2021, and Soto has show promise, but it is still paper-think, and I don't think any of the prospects you mention are immediate solutions. I'm not convinced that Jackson will be a major league regular, and if he is it won't be for a couple more years. Neto might need at least another half year in the minors, if not more; Paris a lot more time - maybe two years, or at least a year and a half (I see a late season 2024 call-up at the very earliest for Kyren). So at the least, they'll want to bolster the bench depth with quality pieces.

In that regard, I think 1B will be bolstered through other players - guys who can hit and play multiple positions, not necessarily a true first baseman.

As for the OF, I agree, which is why I'm a bit fixated on Michael Conforto. Because of his injury, he'll probably accept a "prove it" contract. And the upside is there, or at least not too far in the distant past. There are some other solid options, but most will require 3+ year contracts. 

I forgot about the opt out possibilities. That would increase the option of Ohtani sticking around for another couple of years if he actually enjoys playing here. The Angels never seem to use them. I don't think Arte likes them, but hopefully he won't be the owner that makes the decision on what to do about Ohtani.

[greginpsca]

We need a starting pitcher, and a backup 3b/ 1b man, because we know Rendon is unlikely to stay healthy, or if Walsh craps the bed again.  I would use Fletcher, Adell, and maybe Ward as possible trade bait to see if we could get a good up and coming SP in a return.  Ward would probably get the best return. Then sign a couple of of'ers and a couple of RP'ers. 

[Docwaukee]

Some good stuff to think about so far.  

With the cloud of uncertainty surrounding the sale of the team, this off season is going to be very interesting.  

There are essentially three possibilities as I see it.  1. No/very little spending, 2. same as other years, and 3. go big.  I'm beginning to feel like there's an equal chance of either first/second option with the third being less likely.  So that, to me, means 1. Maybe adding about 15m.  2.  50-60m to spend.  3. Who knows.  Maybe up to 100m

SP is easy.   They could definitely use a starter
1.  They don't get one except maybe a back end innings guy for about 5-7m.  
2. I'd take Syndergaard back.  Maybe a Bassitt type.  A 1-2 year deal with more spend on it than above.  Maybe in the 12-15m range.  
3.  Outside of Rodon, you're looking at a pretty crap market for TORS.  Would you take a very expensive flyer on deGrom here?  And if you do a big trade, you better have everything else in place first.  

RP is easy.   It's awful and needs a significant overhaul.  
1. Scraps and waivers and minors oh my.  
2. Maybe you try to take a flyer on a guy like Champman for 10m if you think you can fix him.   Or pray that Minasian can pull off another trade similar to the Igelsias deal.  
3. Mets aren't gonna let Diaz get away.  After him, there really aren't any sure bets.   Even if you've got big money, I just don't know how I'd spend it here.  

Lineup - CF, RF, 2b, 3b, DH are set.  For these positions it's all about what they do for depth
SS - we could really use one
1.  David Fletcher
2. Not sure where you go here.  (Don't laugh, but a guy like Andrus might be an option.  He's having a really nice season and could probably be had for about 10-12 mil if he doesn't vest)
3. Take your pick of one of the top 4 (I would not sign Anderson to a long term deal).  

LF
1.  Platoon of Adell and Moniak with each functioning as the 4th OFer as well
2. Probably similar to #1 but maybe a stronger bench guy who also has OF experience.  Like a Drury type even though his OF defense isn't very good.
3. I don't see Judge leaving NY.  I'd be hunting Nimmo here even though I don't think he's leaving NY either.  I would take a Benintendi and bat him leadoff.  

C 
1.  Max and Thaiss
2. Max and a mostly defensive backup 
3. Same as above.  

1b
1. Walsh
2. Walsh and maybe a guy like Drury
3. I think I'd go 1yr deal on a guy like Abreu.  

Bench
1. Soto Util, Thaiss C, Moniak/Adell, Duffy or a guy like Jace Peterson.  
2. Fletcher Util, Some C, Moniak/Adell, Drury
3. Fletcher Util, Some C, Moniak OF, Drury - Adell becomes a trade piece

Ohtani - he's not getting traded in the off season so let's put that to rest
1. Maybe he gets traded at the deadline but probably still not
2. Big extension includes opt outs after years 1, 2, and maybe 3
3. Big extension.  No opt outs.  

Payroll
1. total around 150m with additions
2. I figure a guy like Synergaard or like is gonna be about 15m, Drury probably gets somewhere between what Chris Taylor and Kike got so Maybe 2/20?  Backup C around 4m, Closer in trade call it 10m, and a SS for about 10m.  So somewhere in the range of 50-55m in additions putting them around 185.  And Ohtani extension could actually save a little money here if he doesn't go to arb.  
3. Rodon probably gets similar to Ray costing the team about 20m in 2023.  A closer costs you about 15m whether via trade or FA.  Xander or like about 30m in 2023.  Nimmo probably 20m.  4m for a catcher.  10m for Drury.  20m for Abreu.  Maybe save a shade of dough (like 4m) on an ohtani extension.  Payroll would be around $250m.  Would likely have them around 4th or 5th.  So it's not like something unprecedented.   I think they'd add another pen piece or maybe even another arm to the rotation in this scenario

Let's start with the price is right buzzer version

Rotation - Ohtani, Sandoval, Detmers, Suarez, innings guy, Davidson or others
Pen - Pretty much what we have now
Lineup
Rengifo 2b
Trout CF
Ohtani DH
Rendon 3b
Ward - RF
Moniak/Adell LF
Stassi C
Fletcher SS
Bench - soto, thaiss, duffy, moniak/adell

Dream scenario

Rotation - Ohtani, Rodon, Sandoval, Detmers, , Suarez, Whoever
Bullpen - Diaz and figure out the rest
Lineup
Nimmo LF
Trout CF
Bogaerts SS
Ohtani DH
Abreu 1b
Rendon 3b
Rengifo 2b
Ward RF
Stassi C (and maybe O'Hoppe at some point)

Bench - Fletch, Drury, C, Moniak

It almost wouldn't matter who pitched.  We'd score 1000 runs.    

 

 

[Warfarin]

5 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

...

Rotation - Ohtani, Sandoval, Detmers, Suarez, innings guy, Davidson or others
Pen - Pretty much what we have now
Lineup
Rengifo 2b
Trout CF
Ohtani DH
Rendon 3b
Ward - RF
Moniak/Adell LF
Stassi C
Fletcher SS
Bench - soto, thaiss, duffy, moniak/adell

Dream scenario

Rotation - Ohtani, Rodon, Sandoval, Detmers, , Suarez, Whoever
Bullpen - Diaz and figure out the rest
Lineup
Nimmo LF
Trout CF
Bogaerts SS
Ohtani DH
Abreu 1b
Rendon 3b
Rengifo 2b
Ward RF
Stassi C (and maybe O'Hoppe at some point)

Bench - Fletch, Drury, C, Moniak

It almost wouldn't matter who pitched.  We'd score 1000 runs.    

 

 

Great post.  I'd like to think that we can perhaps aim for something between the two lineups, and I think that the middle option that you outlined is probably the most realistic.  I don't think Arte will run bare bones - I think he'll just keep the status quo, and we'll add around 50mil of payroll this year to get us to around 185-190ish.

Re-signing Syndergaard would help a lot.  A rotation of Ohtani, Syndergaard, Sandoval, Detmers, Suarez, and "rotating 6th pitcher" is solid.  I'm not convinced that Davidson fills that 6th spot, although I can see them giving him a shot to start the year.  Notably, he'll be out of options next year, so if he looks like he has so far this year, perhaps he inherits the Barria role of seldom-used long reliever.

That said, if they really want to focus on the offense, then instead they can re-sign Lorenzen, who will come cheaply and has actually looked pretty decent when healthy, and just toss the rest of the money at the offense.

I'm a big fan of what Pederson can bring, but maybe they can consider Gallo, who is superior defensively (can play all three spots) and will also come very cheaply.  Drury would be a solid add and likely someone we need, given he can play the corners.

To summarize - power hitting LF, corner infield bat with power, and likely a middle infielder.  Although, perhaps maybe, Soto might turn out to be a decent SS option..?

[Stradling]

Next year whatever team has Syndergaard goes to will lead the league in stolen bases allowed. If you think his stolen bases against was bad this year, wait till next year with the new rules. It’s going to be brutal for him. 

[jsnpritchett]

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Next year whatever team has Syndergaard goes to will lead the league in stolen bases allowed. If you think his stolen bases against was bad this year, wait till next year with the new rules. It’s going to be brutal for him. 

Yep.

I'm still baffled why people continue to suggest bringing back Lorenzen and him.  Is it just some level of familiarity with them that makes them subconsciously come up as good options for next year? In all likelihood, the budget for improvements will be limited next year.  I continue to believe that there are internal options at the league minimum salary who could perform similarly to Syndergaard/Lorenzen, leaving more money for upgrades elsewhere. 

[BTH]

12 hours ago, Warfarin said:

So, next year, perhaps:  2B Segura, CF Trout, DH Ohtani, 3B Rendon, LF Pederson, RF Ward, 1B Walsh (?), C Stassi, SS Fletcher (or Soto?).  Bench:  "veteran" backup C, IF Rengifo, C/1B/3B Thaiss, OF Adell or Moniak.

I think it looks similar to that, though I could see them using Rengifo/Fletcher at 2B/SS with Velazquez or Soto on the bench.

I don’t think they should do that, but they may end up doing so if money is tight.

[tdawg87]

@Swordsman78 I must apologize as I misjudged you. You have created some good discussion lately and that's something we definitely needed. 

[tdawg87]

6 hours ago, Stradling said:

Next year whatever team has Syndergaard goes to will lead the league in stolen bases allowed. If you think his stolen bases against was bad this year, wait till next year with the new rules. It’s going to be brutal for him. 

I've suggested bringing him back a couple times. I do think that overall he's worth looking at to create some redundancy in the middle of the rotation and add to the pitching depth. 

One could argue that Barria would provide the same production for cheap, and they'd probably be correct. 

I just like the idea of having a veteran RHP smack dab in the middle of the rotation next year. There may be better options. I haven't looked into it much.

I absolutely do not want Lorenzen back btw.

Edited September 25, 2022 by tdawg87

[Swordsman78]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

@Swordsman78 I must apologize as I misjudged you. You have created some good discussion lately and that's something we definitely needed. 

Much appreciated @tdawg87.

@Lou I'm tryeeeeng.

Enjoy adding some "edge" and "spice" but doing so with added emphasis of grace and acknowledgement of valid points in opposing views.

New an improved motto - "I think you're wrong, but I'm listening".

 

[tdawg87]

5 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

Much appreciated @tdawg87.

@Lou I'm tryeeeeng.

Enjoy adding some "edge" and "spice" but doing so with added emphasis of grace and acknowledgement of valid points in opposing views.

New an improved motto - "I think you're wrong, but I'm listening".

 

This is an amazing redemption arc. 

[Taylor]

Swordsman78 is the Brendan Fraser of AngelsWin.

[tdawg87]

1 hour ago, Taylor said:

Swordsman78 is the Brendan Fraser of AngelsWin.

Let's not go too far.

[Taylor]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

Let's not go too far.

Then who is?

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Then who is?

Fraser was loved, then disappeared, and is now getting love again.

[Jeff Fletcher]

The Angels don’t need more good players. 
 

They need fewer bad players. 
 

Discuss. 

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The Angels don’t need more good players. 
 

They need fewer bad players. 
 

Discuss. 

[Angelsjunky]

46 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Yes, this. I would rephrase: The Angels don't need more great players, but they need to replace some of their bad players who solid to good players.

[BTH]

2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The Angels don’t need more good players. 
 

They need fewer bad players. 
 

Discuss. 

True, but how do you get fewer bad players?

My answer to that is: by getting more good players, which builds up your depth to the point where you don’t end up using those bad players.

The problem is that if you sign 2021 Matt Duffy (a 0.9 WAR player), and he regresses, you end up with 2022 Matt Duffy (a 0.0 WAR player).

But if you sign a 2021 Chris Taylor (a 2.6 WAR player), and he regresses, you end up with 2022 Chris Taylor (a 1.7 WAR player).

Which means you need to aim higher than “not bad players” cause if regression hits those players, then they are bad players themselves.

[Tank]

while doing some work at school today, i listened to angels podcast that i hadn't heard of before - Talkin' Halos with Derek Ciapola, Jared Tims, and Nate Green. Tims name is familiar from twitter, but never heard of the other two.

the topic of what would be your dream off season came up. two of these three said in complete seriousness that the halos need AT LEAST three new starters for next year. got me to wondering who they would jettison in order to do this. we've seen some nice progress from sandoval and suarez and detmers this season, so i'm curious who they'd cut from the current starting rotation.  Or maybe they want to see a 7 man rotation. i dunno.

fortunately, i'm just not curious enough to listen to anymore of their podcasts to find out more info from them.

[Warfarin]

3 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The Angels don’t need more good players. 
 

They need fewer bad players. 
 

Discuss. 

 

49 minutes ago, Trendon said:

True, but how do you get fewer bad players?

My answer to that is: by getting more good players, which builds up your depth to the point where you don’t end up using those bad players.

The problem is that if you sign 2021 Matt Duffy (a 0.9 WAR player), and he regresses, you end up with 2022 Matt Duffy (a 0.0 WAR player).

But if you sign a 2021 Chris Taylor (a 2.6 WAR player), and he regresses, you end up with 2022 Chris Taylor (a 1.7 WAR player).

Which means you need to aim higher than “not bad players” cause if regression hits those players, then they are bad players themselves.

Right.  I think ultimately, this has been the Angels' problem for years - they have several star players, but the Angels need to be better at "raising the floor" of the outcomes of the rest of the team.  Teams that are routinely successful, a la the Dodgers and Rays, are very good at having significant levels of depth that they can rely on when various players get injured, underperform, etc.

The Angels are often in the position of having to trot out the Tyler Wades, Jose Rojases, Phil Gosselins, etc etc.  The have guys that play significantly below replacement level, and that is ultimately one of the significant factors that leads to the team tanking.

If you remove all the below average performances, and simply replace them with 0.0 fWAR guys, this team becomes significantly better.  The pathway to doing that, arguably, should be a lot cheaper than trying to sign/acquire more elite players.

[jsnpritchett]

27 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

 

Right.  I think ultimately, this has been the Angels' problem for years - they have several star players, but the Angels need to be better at "raising the floor" of the outcomes of the rest of the team.  Teams that are routinely successful, a la the Dodgers and Rays, are very good at having significant levels of depth that they can rely on when various players get injured, underperform, etc.

The Angels are often in the position of having to trot out the Tyler Wades, Jose Rojases, Phil Gosselins, etc etc.  The have guys that play significantly below replacement level, and that is ultimately one of the significant factors that leads to the team tanking.

If you remove all the below average performances, and simply replace them with 0.0 fWAR guys, this team becomes significantly better.  The pathway to doing that, arguably, should be a lot cheaper than trying to sign/acquire more elite players.

You really like the word significant. 

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Tank said:

the topic of what would be your dream off season came up. two of these three said in complete seriousness that the halos need AT LEAST three new starters for next year.

 

Anyone suggesting that the starting rotation is the Angels biggest need this offseason clearly has no clue what they’re talking about.

Baseball Reference and FanGraphs are free, even if you aren’t watching the games.

Ohtani, Sandoval, Detmers, and Suarez is a very solid quartet.