Fixing the Los Angeles Angels 2023 Bullpen

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

He has written multiple articles based on discussions from this board (though I'm not sure it was ever acknowledged).

I believe I've acknowledged that. Once I even started a thread looking for an idea.

This idea is going to have to wait because I couldn't get Perry today, though.

[Tank]

7 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

I'm a maybe

you haven't been invited.

 

yet.

[ScottT]

Good luck.

If anyone has the answers for fixing a bullpen in one offseason...  I'd like to know the mega millions numbers.

[arch stanton]

6 hours ago, ScottT said:

Good luck.

If anyone has the answers for fixing a bullpen in one offseason...  I'd like to know the mega millions numbers.

You don't need to fix it all in the offseason. No team ends with the pen they started with. You just need to keep it from derailing the rest of the team while you find the right combo over the course of the first half

[Hubs]

On 9/21/2022 at 9:33 AM, Inside Pitch said:

FIP and ERA are horrible stats to use when looking at RPs.   

While there is no single stat to look at when talking RPs, some are better than others.  WPA, SD (shut down) -- those are the sorts of numbers people need to look at beyond the rates stuff.  Loup's WPA this year is -0.61, good for 125th out of 155.  For sake of comparison, Steve Cishek who everyone here was wanting to tar and feather last year had a WPA of 0.45 which was 75th out of 144.

He's been awful.   How much of that is due to poor usage is debatable.

His LOB% is 56.8%.  When you're doing that shitty a job of stranding runners then there's a good chance they will come around to score.  

Herget and Quijada rank 1st and 3rd among Angels pitchers in WPA, but only Herget ranks among the top 95 in MLB at 18th.  Quijada is 98th.  I know @Docwaukee isn't a fan of either but Wantz right now is looking like a Tepera clone albeit with a HR problem.  Anyway, those four plus Barria are the only ones to post positive WPAs...

Agreed, but I think SD% is heavily affected by poor usage. He's not an 8th inning guy, he's a guy that should be coming in to face lefties and left handed centered lineups.

Bringing him in with a runner on base is also dumb, he's just not good at holding runners.

 

[tdawg87]

When was the last time we had a "good" bullpen? 

It seems no one in this org ever has the answer. Take a bunch of flyers on cheap guys? Fail. Spend a fuckton of money on them? Fail. 

[Inside Pitch]

54 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Agreed, but I think SD% is heavily affected by poor usage. He's not an 8th inning guy, he's a guy that should be coming in to face lefties and left handed centered lineups.

Bringing him in with a runner on base is also dumb, he's just not good at holding runners.

He doesn't have to be an 8th inning guy to be awarded with a SD. 

Pitchers get a SD (shutdown) anytime they help their team chances to win by 6% so basically, 0.06 WPA.  Conversely they are awarded a MD (meltdown) if their performance hurt his teams chances to win by 6% or -0.06 WPA.  So, the main reason his SD total is where it is is because his WPA is in the negatives, also why he's just outside of the top 20 for MDs (Meldowns).  

Loup has been bad, today was another perfect example.   Signing him was a bad move because the dude is essentially a specialist at a time when the 3 batter rule is in place.  None of this is to say he can't be better, because he's obviously done it before but it was a bad move at hello.

[Inside Pitch]

58 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

When was the last time we had a "good" bullpen? 

It seems no one in this org ever has the answer. Take a bunch of flyers on cheap guys? Fail. Spend a fuckton of money on them? Fail. 

2017 for sure...  6th best fWAR for RPs in MLB.   They were fine in 2019 too and back in the MLB top 10 in fWAR in 2020 and 8th in 2021. The pen was made to look worse than it really has been for a long time by a rotation that was out of games in the 3rd and 4th innings..  But, it's actually not been as bad as say the defense or SP had been in recent years.

[Inside Pitch]

Its been shit this year though!

[tdawg87]

Just now, Inside Pitch said:

Its been shit this year though!

[Docwaukee]

6 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

2017 for sure...  6th best fWAR for RPs in MLB.   They were fine in 2019 too and back in the MLB top 10 in fWAR in 2020.   The pen was made to look worse for a long time by a rotation that was out of games in the 3rd and 4th innings..  But, it's actually not been as bad as say the defense or SP had been in recent years.

One of the best years we've had of late (2019) was under Ausmus of all managers.  Solid WAR and better in high leverage than other recent seasons.  Mostly because Robles was kind of a beast that year.  But the only other guys he had to work with were Buttrey, Luis Garcia, Bedrosian, Anderson, Felix Pena, Stratton, Bard, Cole and Noe.  That was one hell of a motley crew.  17 and 20 put up bigger WARs but as you mentioned, that was just an accumulation of a ton of innings.  But those two years were terrible in high leverage.  

[Docwaukee]

BTW, on top of that in 2019, one starter had more than 100 innings.  Cahill at 102.1.  Otherwise it was Heaney at 95.1, a 23yo Canning with 90.1, a 22yo Barria with 82.2, A 21 yo Suarez with 81.0, and peters.  Plus the skaggs thing.  Oh and Matt Harvey.  Plus, a 22yo Sandoval and a bunch of openers.  Which also impacted the number of innings pitched by the 'starters'.  

Oh and just for kicks, I'll throw in that 2 of the 3 worst defensive seasons that we've had in the last 21 years came in the Joe Maddon years.  And 2020 would have probably been worse if not for the partial season.  

[Angel Oracle]

How to fix the bullpen?

Blow torch AND sledge hammer

 

Which was worse?

The 1970’s Arson Squad?

Or the 2022 Arson Squad?

[BTH]

5 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

When was the last time we had a "good" bullpen? 

anecdotally, I'd say 2014 post trade deadline

[Swordsman78]

4 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

How to fix the bullpen?

Blow torch AND sledge hammer

 

Which was worse?

The 1970’s Arson Squad?

Or the 2022 Arson Squad?

The 70's Arson squad was worse.   Back then usually just needed to get 3 outs.  Couldn't do it.