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Gameday Thread: Angels @ Guardians (9/14/22 10am Pacific): Sandoval on the mound, Fletcher at SS


jsnpritchett

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  • jsnpritchett changed the title to Gameday Thread: Angels @ Guardians (9/14/22 10am Pacific): Sandoval on the mound, Fletcher at SS
11 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

 

Matt's tweet is misleading.  It seems to imply that if Othani played a position rather than DH'ing, he'd be at like 25+ fWAR.  Positional adjustments aren't the same as WAR.  They're a tool used to calculate WAR.  The adjustments are in runs saved and also factor in Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). 

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12 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Matt's tweet is misleading.  It seems to imply that if Othani played a position rather than DH'ing, he'd be at like 25+ fWAR.  Positional adjustments aren't the same as WAR.  They're a tool used to calculate WAR.  The adjustments are in runs saved and also factor in Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). 

 

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Birch is talking about RAR (Runs Above Replacement) not WAR. I believe the ratio is roughly 10 RAR = 1 WAR, so Ohtani is "losing" about 1.7ish WAR due to positional adjustment, adjusted to playing time. So it will probably end up being something like -16 RAR.

Anyhow, the positional adjustment is one of the sketchiest elements of WAR. I don't know exactly how they come up with those numbers and suspect it is just winging it - a best estimation. I tend to think that it would be better if DH provided a baseline 0 value defensively, and then everyone went up from there based on number of plays and quality of defense. But that's a road that wasn't taken.

As for Judge vs. Ohtani, I tend to think that WAR is the best overall measurement in judging overall value, and right now Judge has the edge by +1.5 fWAR. Ohtani is the more unusual performance, of course, but the MVP award isn't just based on statistics - it is also based upon narrative, and to what degree the voters buy into this or that narrative. I think it would be more of a toss-up if Ohtani hadn't won it last year, but because he did, and because of how great Judge's year is, I think they'll give it to Judge - and there's nothing wrong with that. Actually, if the year ended today I think it would be more dubious giving it to Ohtani than Judge, even if still understandable.

Meaning, it isn't like Judge is just having a garden variety great year (e.g. 7-8 WAR). He's having a pretty historic one, too.

The only way Ohtani wins it, imo, is if he finishes super-strong and/or does something remarkable, like pitch a no-hitter, and Judge slumps badly. Meaning, that WAR gap will have to narrow to less than 1 for it to be close. Right now I'm pretty certain the award will go to Judge, and rightly so.

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11 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Birch is talking about RAR (Runs Above Replacement) not WAR. I believe the ratio is roughly 10 RAR = 1 WAR, so Ohtani is "losing" about 1.7ish WAR due to positional adjustment, adjusted to playing time. So it will probably end up being something like -16 RAR.

Anyhow, the positional adjustment is one of the sketchiest elements of WAR. I don't know exactly how they come up with those numbers and suspect it is just winging it - a best estimation. I tend to think that it would be better if DH provided a baseline 0 value defensively, and then everyone went up from there based on number of plays and quality of defense. But that's a road that wasn't taken.

As for Judge vs. Ohtani, I tend to think that WAR is the best overall measurement in judging overall value, and right now Judge has the edge by +1.5 fWAR. Ohtani is the more unusual performance, of course, but the MVP award isn't just based on statistics - it is also based upon narrative, and to what degree the voters buy into this or that narrative. I think it would be more of a toss-up if Ohtani hadn't won it last year, but because he did, and because of how great Judge's year is, I think they'll give it to Judge - and there's nothing wrong with that. Actually, if the year ended today I think it would be more dubious giving it to Ohtani than Judge, even if still understandable.

Meaning, it isn't like Judge is just having a garden variety great year (e.g. 7-8 WAR). He's having a pretty historic one, too.

The only way Ohtani wins it, imo, is if he finishes super-strong and/or does something remarkable, like pitch a no-hitter, and Judge slumps badly. Meaning, that WAR gap will have to narrow to less than 1 for it to be close. Right now I'm pretty certain the award will go to Judge, and rightly so.

I agree with all of this.  I've made the same point in previous years about a "narrative" impacting the MVP race, though some others argued vehemently against that being the case in this day and age.  I think it absolutely plays into the voting.  If everyone just voted for whoever had the highest WAR, there wouldn't even need to be a vote. 

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8 minutes ago, AngelsFaninGA said:

Moniak actually looks somewhat promising

Too small a sample size but I'd like to see him get as many AB's as possible....even if it comes at Adell's expense....Not giving up on Adell but he hasn't show enough to warrant getting all the AB's....actually, I'd rest Ward and Trout some and play Moniak and Adell together.....

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1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

I agree with all of this.  I've made the same point in previous years about a "narrative" impacting the MVP race, though some others argued vehemently against that being the case in this day and age.  I think it absolutely plays into the voting.  If everyone just voted for whoever had the highest WAR, there wouldn't even need to be a vote. 

Yep. I don't even think there is anything wrong with narratives impacting the MVP race. I mean, narrative = story, and baseball is all about the stories.

It is the age-old old vs. new school, or tradition vs. stats. The best approach, imo, is finding a balance. The answer doesn't have to be one or the other, but both. But as with most such things, most people fall towards one side or the other. Such is life.

If I was a voter, I'd start with WAR, then look at other stats (wRC+ etc), then adjust for narrative. I tend to think that it should be "best overall player" vs. "best player on a contender." Hopefully the two line-up, but if they don't then it comes down to the difference between the two. No hard rules, but an inevitable judgement call.

Oh, I would always vote for a hitter for MVP, with pitchers sticking to CY, which I see as best or "Most Valuable Pitcher."

Edited by Angelsjunky
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