Ohtani or Judge as MVP?

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, Docwaukee said:

according to statcast, his expected hrs is at 56.  One less than current.  There are 12 parks where he'd have more than current.  4 the same.  14 where he'd have fewer.  Overall avg of every park is 56.6.  All other things equal, he'd have 59 if he played all his games at the big A.  65 in COL and CIN.  44 in DET.  59 if he play all his games at home.  

He has hit zero hrs of less than 350 feet.  He's hit one of less than 364 feet (a 355 at the CWS).  

The park is not helping him.  

He gonna win the MVP this year and my guess is pretty handily.  

Ha.  Posted this as I was typing my response. Yeah, I don't see anything in the data that suggests he's being helped by his home park.

[m0nkey]

Per this twitter account, he's had two home runs that would have been HRs in only Yankee Stadium.  That said, he's one off  his expected total as has been pointed in this thread, so I'm sure everything would even out.

 

 

[Jeff Fletcher]

12 hours ago, m0nkey said:

Assuming you don't have the AL MVP vote, as of 9/14, who would @Jeff Fletcher vote for?

I am staying out of it. 

[Angelsfan1984]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I am staying out of it. 

Jeff clearly thinks the MVP should be trout. Extrapolate that guys numbers and he hits 97 home runs this year. 

[Chuck]

9 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I am staying out of it. 

I think because @Jeff Fletcher wrote a book on Ohtani's MVP season last year and he's been heavily publicizing it on social media, he's staying out of the discussion. 

[Chuck]

Gawd I can't stand Jon Heyman. I hope Ohtani absolutely rakes and kills it on the mound for the remainder of his starts and wins the MVP, just to see Jon Heyman shit himself on the MLB Network. 

 

[tdawg87]

I hope Heyman doesn't get a vote. 

[Duren, Duren]

Focusing on Judge.

The Bonds, McGuire,  Sosa, National League steroid era home runs record has been a subtle  embarrassment for the sport over time. It's in the record books and will stand, but deserves multiple asterisks that acknowledge context. For crying out loud, Maris had to suffer the humiliation of an asterisk because the season was eight games longer than in Ruth's season. Enforced by commissioner Frick, who was Ruth's ghost writer! 

And the media were explicitly cheering for Mantle to out duel Maris because he was the purer Yankee.

 

Imagine if Ohtani and Trout were battling head to head to set the league record. Who would the local media and fans favor? Even subconsciously.  The long time franchise hero or the outsider? 

The hype around Judge if/when he hits 61/2 will be enormous. Especially because he's a Yankee breaking another Yankee's record. Unlike Maris, who was belittled and demeaned by most of the New York media of that era.

It's almost like Judge is redeeming the record that Maris illegitimatey held. And returning to the Yankee roots by taking the torch that Ruth passed on. 

It seems inevitable that Judge sets the record. And like the teams of  Maris and Ruth, the Yankees are a playoff team. I really hope though that Ohtani makes it a tough choice. He probably won't get to forty homers, or even a hundred RBIs, but will be very close. His best chance is to dominate on the mound with a legitimate Cy Young type season. 

Even if he loses, he could have such a memorable stat output both ways that it will eclipse what Judge does historically over the long term.

 

Edit: I strongly suggest watching the movie '61' by Billy Crystal. Even though he glorifies McGuire at the start. It's a pretty good representation of the Maris/Mantle story.

[Torridd]

I've always gone Old School, which is the team that makes the playoffs. I know that's highly unpopular but that's generally how I feel.

[Taylor]

Not that this has any bearing on the MVP race, but which player is more likely to repeat their 2022 performance in the future?

[Erstad Grit]

1 hour ago, Torridd said:

I've always gone Old School, which is the team that makes the playoffs. I know that's highly unpopular but that's generally how I feel.

I agree.

The fact is Ohtani hasn't pitched or batted in an important Angel moment since May

[AngelsFaninGA]

2 hours ago, Torridd said:

I've always gone Old School, which is the team that makes the playoffs. I know that's highly unpopular but that's generally how I feel.

Despite the fact that baseball is the one sport where individual performance has the least bearing on team success. You could legitimately have a 90 HR hitter or 0.50 ERA pitcher on a last place team. We've seen the Angels trot out historically bad hitters in the 5-9 spots all year, we've seen them go 2-3 in games where he has multiple HR's, we've seen them lose a game in which he had 8 RBI's, you name it. 

[CaliAngel]

It just feels like it's going the way that Judge will win. 

With his batting stats (see Chucks twatter post above), being on the stankees, making the playoffs...stankee fans have repeatedly stated how without Judge they wouldn't be close to where they are as far as standings...unless Ohtani has a hot streak coming up where he gets to 40 HRs and increases his batting average to .270 I don't see it happening. 

I don't really agree with it because we will never see a player doing what Ohtani does, but that's usually how this stuff goes. 

[AngelsFaninGA]

5 minutes ago, CaliAngel said:

It just feels like it's going the way that Judge will win. 

With his batting stats (see Chucks twatter post above), being on the stankees, making the playoffs...stankee fans have repeatedly stated how without Judge they wouldn't be close to where they are as far as standings...unless Ohtani has a hot streak coming up where he gets to 40 HRs and increases his batting average to .270 I don't see it happening. 

I don't really agree with it because we will never see a player doing what Ohtani does, but that's usually how this stuff goes. 

Incidentally, the Yankees are 27-33 since their hot start (the Angels are 23-37 over that same span), which just so happens to coincide with them suffering a rash of injuries (Rizzo, LeMahieu, Carpenter, King, etc) and other players underperforming.

I remember early in the season when they had a fully healthy rotation, an entire battalion of sub-2 ERA relievers they could call on, and guys like Carpenter were tearing the cover off the ball.  It's almost as if baseball is a team sport and a single player can't carry an entire team or even get them to .500

[CaliAngel]

2 minutes ago, AngelsFaninGA said:

Incidentally, the Yankees are 27-33 since their hot start (the Angels are 23-37 over that same span), which just so happens to coincide with them suffering a rash of injuries (Rizzo, LeMahieu, Carpenter, King, etc) and other players underperforming.

I remember early in the season when they had a fully healthy rotation, an entire battalion of sub-2 ERA relievers they could call on, and guys like Carpenter were tearing the cover off the ball.  It's almost as if baseball is a team sport and a single player can't carry an entire team or even get them to .500

Don't disagree with you at all. 

Just saying, not sure the people that vote for MVP look at it that way. 

[Angelsjunky]

Why is this an issue at all, at least for any Angels fan?

If Judge wins it, you have to be a complete and utter Angels homer to think he's not deserving, even if you think Ohtani is more deserving. Meaning, you can't reasonably say "Judge is a bad choice for MVP." He's having arguably the best hitting season since Barry Bonds, plus the possible 62 HRs.

If Ohtani wins it, yippee - we're happy, even if some of us might think Judge is more deserving. Plus, we get to watch countless butthurt Yankees spontaneously combust.

 

[Tank]

7 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Gawd I can't stand Jon Heyman. I hope Ohtani absolutely rakes and kills it on the mound for the remainder of his starts and wins the MVP, just to see Jon Heyman shit himself on the MLB Network. 

 

And no mention of RBI+?!? What a complete hack.

[Taylor]

Vladdy Jr. is a little bitter.

[Blarg]

Judge has earned this year's MVP unlike Guerrero last season. And this season, Guerreo has slipped to just all star but not superstar numbers like so many MVP hopefuls in the past. 

Ohtani, like Trout, won the MVP and it requires another player to put up an amazing number to beat him this season. And Judge's game this season is off the charts. Remove him from the voting and Ohtani is the runaway favorite. But he is there and he will win the award and rightfully so.

Next year isn't a contract year for Judge, he will fade back like Guerrero did. It will be a contract year for Ohtani so God only knows what kind of records he will shatter earning his last contract. I would put money he will earn the MVP in 2023. 

[Taylor]

1 minute ago, Blarg said:

Judge has earned this year's MVP unlike Guerrero last season. And this season, Guerreo has slipped to just all star but not superstar numbers like so many MVP hopefuls in the past. 

Ohtani, like Trout, won the MVP and it requires another player to put up an amazing number to beat him this season. And Judge's game this season is off the charts. Remove him from the voting and Ohtani is the runaway favorite. But he is there and he will win the award and rightfully so.

Next year isn't a contract year for Judge, he will fade back like Guerrero did. It will be a contract year for Ohtani so God only knows what kind of records he will shatter earning his last contract. I would put money he will earn the MVP in 2023. 

Would you say Judge is having a Gary Matthews Jr. type season?

[Blarg]

No, he has sustainable star talent. That comes from proving that one highlight isn't a career. Like trolling the same post over and over. It doesn't make you a star. 

[Taylor]

11 minutes ago, Blarg said:

No, he has sustainable star talent. That comes from proving that one highlight isn't a career. Like trolling the same post over and over. It doesn't make you a star. 

Just making sure, since you said a few months ago that Ohtani is basically GMJ. I'm glad you've finally come around.

[m0nkey]

Judge had a career OPS+ of 150 from 2016-2021, so I doubt he'll turn into a pumpkin like Bellinger/Yelich have (so far).  He could've/should've won the MVP back in 2017 as a rookie too.  Ohtani's career OPS+ is 140.  

That said, Blarg is right, it's taking a historic season for someone to knock off Ohtani for MVP

[Jay]

11 hours ago, AngelsFaninGA said:

It's almost as if baseball is a team sport and a single player can't carry an entire team or even get them to .500

The Angels with Trout is a case study that proves this theory.

 

[Jay]

The MVP award rarely goes to a pitcher unless the pitcher has just an other-worldly season. Normally it goes to the position player with the best offensive season. It literally never goes to a DH.

When Verlander won the MVP in 2011 he not only had the highest WAR by a slim margin he had an incredible season, also winning the CYA. He had 251 IP.

And Verlander didn't win unanimously he received less than half of the first-place votes. None of the position players that season really stood out from the field as Judge is doing this year.

What Ohtani does is very unique, and that was recognized last year but for 2022 MVP I see no choice other than Judge.