Ohtani or Judge as MVP?

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I'm going with dropout from College University. 

Let me guess, it wasn’t worth it?

[Taylor]

Fun Fact: College University is the fallback school of 2 out of 3 Hofstra applicants. 

 

[ScottT]

Yes.

Ohtani or Judge 

[Chuck]

 

[Tank]

On 8/31/2022 at 6:48 PM, Blarg said:

I'm going with dropout from College University Wally Thor's Truckmaster School of Driving. 

 

[greginpsca]

2 out of 3 voters will vote for Judge. Reason # 1. He is a Yankee. #2. a larger % of voters are east coast writers. # 3. He plays for a playoff team. It won't be that close.

[m0nkey]

28 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

2 out of 3 voters will vote for Judge. Reason # 1. He is a Yankee. #2. a larger % of voters are east coast writers. # 3. He plays for a playoff team. It won't be that close.

Reason 1: Judge has a 9.7 vs 8.1 advantage in fWAR, and 9.0 vs 8.1 in bWAR (as of end of yesterday)

reason 2: Yankees are a playoff team

 

And you know that there are two voters for each AL/NL city make up the voter pool for awards?

[ScottT]

War doesn't handle this comparison well.

WPA and stats like it should also be considered. Ohtani had a big edge over Guerrero last year.  This year Judge has a big edge.

The "top 5" stuff is kinda silly. Judge has such great offensive numbers.  Ohtani may as well be 10th to 15th in same categories 

[Angel Oracle]

On 8/30/2022 at 4:10 PM, jsnpritchett said:

Judge at home: .301/.388/.674, 1.061 OPS, 27 HR in 64 games

Judge on the road: .286/.404/.647, 1.052 OPS, 23 HR in 61 games.

As usual, you're wrong.

(Also, just for comparison: Ohtani has an OPS of 1.021 at home and .751 on the road...)

 

And Yankee Stadium admittedly isn’t a band box to LF/LCF/CF.

LHHs now have it better at Angel Stadium with the much reduced height to hit RF HRs.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Angel Oracle

[Lou]

14 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

And Yankee Stadium admittedly isn’t a band box to LF/LCF/CF.

LHHs now have it better at Angel Stadium with the much reduced height to hit RF HRs.

He's hit a lot of home runs to RF.

[AngelsFaninGA]

WAR isn't an accurate way to truly measure the skill level and value of a player like Ohtani (and it has nothing to do with the argument of him freeing up an extra roster spot). 

It's the equivalent of someone, for example, playing in the NFL at a high level at both linebacker and WR. Stats wouldn't properly describe how impressive and ridiculous that is, and that player would still lose the MVP most years to whichever QB threw for 45 TD's and 5k yards. 

[Angel Oracle]

16 minutes ago, Lou said:

He's hit a lot of home runs to RF.

Good point, that part is a bandbox.

[Angel Oracle]

9 minutes ago, AngelsFaninGA said:

WAR isn't an accurate way to truly measure the skill level and value of a player like Ohtani (and it has nothing to do with the argument of him freeing up an extra roster spot). 

It's the equivalent of someone, for example, playing in the NFL at a high level at both linebacker and WR. Stats wouldn't properly describe how impressive and ridiculous that is, and that player would still lose the MVP most years to whichever QB threw for 45 TD's and 5k yards. 

Last NFL player to do something like that was waaay back in the 1950s/early 1960s, the Eagles’ Chuck Bednarik (both LB and OL).

Edited September 14, 2022 by Angel Oracle

[Jeff Fletcher]

3 hours ago, greginpsca said:

#2. a larger % of voters are east coast writers.

There are two voters from each city.

So there are 10 voters from AL East cities and 10 voters from AL West cities.

[Angels 1961]

I think Ohtani is MVP easy. On a team with 7 straight losing season will be the difference. If Ohtani was on any AL team going to playoffs, he wins hands down.

[m0nkey]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

There are two voters from each city.

So there are 10 voters from AL East cities and 10 voters from AL West cities.

Assuming you don't have the AL MVP vote, as of 9/14, who would @Jeff Fletcher vote for?

[m0nkey]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

And Yankee Stadium admittedly isn’t a band box to LF/LCF/CF.

LHHs now have it better at Angel Stadium with the much reduced height to hit RF HRs.

To update the splits:

 

Home: .316/.408/.684 29 homers

Away: .305/.420/.699 28 homers

[Lou]

25 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

To update the splits:

 

Home: .316/.408/.684 29 homers

Away: .305/.420/.699 28 homers

That doesn't mean he hasn't taken advantage of the little league dimensions in Yankee Stadium, where the distances down the lines are less than 100' further than Williamsport.

[Stradling]

31 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

To update the splits:

 

Home: .316/.408/.684 29 homers

Away: .305/.420/.699 28 homers

But has he played more than half his games at Home?  Asking for a fraud. 

[m0nkey]

4 minutes ago, Lou said:

That doesn't mean he hasn't taken advantage of the little league dimensions in Yankee Stadium, where the distances down the lines are less than 100' further than Williamsport.

What do you imagine his home OPS would be if he played at an "average" MLB field? I don't understand the nerd stats but when he's at the top of these adjusted leaderboards and lapping the majority of the field, can't help but think they can't all be wrong.

[Lou]

15 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

What do you imagine his home OPS would be if he played at an "average" MLB field? I don't understand the nerd stats but when he's at the top of these adjusted leaderboards and lapping the majority of the field, can't help but think they can't all be wrong.

I'm only referring to home runs hit to the short parts of Yankee Stadium. Ohtani doesn't ave the luxury of potentially hitting 320' home runs in half the games he plays. 

I'm in no way arguing that Ohtani has had a better offensive season. 

[Slegnaac]

3 hours ago, Lou said:

I'm only referring to home runs hit to the short parts of Yankee Stadium. Ohtani doesn't ave the luxury of potentially hitting 320' home runs in half the games he plays. 

I'm in no way arguing that Ohtani has had a better offensive season. 

I wonder how many of his Yankee Stadium home runs were less than 350 feet, the minimum distance at Angels Stadium.

[Docwaukee]

16 minutes ago, Slegnaac said:

I wonder how many of his Yankee Stadium home runs were less than 350 feet, the minimum distance at Angels Stadium.

according to statcast, his expected hrs is at 56.  One less than current.  There are 12 parks where he'd have more than current.  4 the same.  14 where he'd have fewer.  Overall avg of every park is 56.6.  All other things equal, he'd have 59 if he played all his games at the big A.  65 in COL and CIN.  44 in DET.  59 if he play all his games at home.  

He has hit zero hrs of less than 350 feet.  He's hit one of less than 364 feet (a 355 at the CWS).  

The park is not helping him.  

He gonna win the MVP this year and my guess is pretty handily.  

[Tank]

when will we get the one definitive stat to forever settle this argument on who is better? 

 

RBI+

[jsnpritchett]

30 minutes ago, Slegnaac said:

I wonder how many of his Yankee Stadium home runs were less than 350 feet, the minimum distance at Angels Stadium.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/aaron-judge-592450?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Looking at the data here (scroll down a bit for the HR data), I don't see a lot of evidence that he's getting many cheap shots. Maybe I'm reading the data wrong, but it looks like his expected HR total based on distance, angle, etc. is almost exactly what his real total is.  And if you compare across stadiums, his expected HR total is the exact same at Yankee Stadium and Angel Stadium (59).

If I'm interpreting this wrong, someone please correct me.