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Should we muse about trading Ohtani?


Torridd

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I understand his talent and with that special talent that he makes a lot of money for the team. However, at this time, the team is going nowhere. Can we get a haul that addresses our shortcomings, even if it's from several teams? What would we need back in a trade? A shortstop? Catcher? Starting pitcher? Is it possible to get those needs in a trade for him? Or do you think we need to be patient that management can get the personnel to gel around him?

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10 minutes ago, Torridd said:

I understand his talent and with that special talent that he makes a lot of money for the team. However, at this time, the team is going nowhere. Can we get a haul that addresses our shortcomings, even if it's from several teams? What would we need back in a trade? A shortstop? Catcher? Starting pitcher? Is it possible to get those needs in a trade for him? Or do you think we need to be patient that management can get the personnel to gel around him?

I don't think it's about fans being patient that management can get the right personnel around him.  It's about can Ohtani be patient and wait?  My guess is no and he isn't going to sign an extension....

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As people have mentioned, teams rarely get adequate returns on mega-stars like Ohtani. Trading him is a desperation move that implies: 1) You don't think you can (or want to) re-sign him, and 2) You don't plan on contending in the near future, and would rather get something than nothing for him, regardless of the fallout to players and fans.

As for the 2nd point, regardless of what we think, I don't think the Angels are giving up on contention in the near future. Ohtani would be a big part of that. As of this writing, he's 8th in the majors in total WAR (3.6) and moving up the list (he was out of the top 30 a couple weeks ago).

Trading him only makes sense if 1) There's little to no chance of contending in the near future, and 2) You are certain that you can get a good return.

I don't think either is true, so the Angels won't trade him. And this aside from PR (what it says to the other players, especially Trout) and economic elements (he's a huge cash draw).

Edited by Angelsjunky
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27 minutes ago, Ender said:

I wouldn't trade him ... then again I regret not trading Felix Hernandez or Ichiro when we likely had the chance. 

Who knows if we ever would have received fair value for either of them though. What is fair value also? 

No team will give you fair value for someone of Ohtani's talents. 

Actually, the Mariners are a good example of the pros and cons of trading away superstars. I mean, they lost three of the best players of the game after 1998 (Randy Johnson), 1999 (Ken Griffey Jr), and 2000 (Alex Rodriguez), and then won 116 games in 2001. They got a few decent players for Johnson in Garcia, Guillen, and Halama - but not enough to make up for losing one of the greatest pitchers of all time. Of course the Astros only got 11 starts out of Johnson (but with a 1.28 ERA!), and then he went to the Diamondbacks via free agency.

They did get a nice package for Griffey, most notably Mike Cameron who--while being far from peak Griffey--was actually significantly better than Griffey from that point on, and a lesser star in his own right.

They got zilch for A-Rod, though - as he left via free agency to the Rangers for that--at the time--massize 10/$250M contract.

Another recent trade that could be somewhat comparable is Mookie Betts  - who is probably the best recent player to be traded. The Red Sox partially used that to unload David Price, but still got a quality regular in Alex Verdugo and two solid prospects in Jeter Downs and Connor Wong. Still, Betts is one of the best players in the game.

So if the Angels traded Ohtani, probably the best they could hope for would be a Griffey-esque trade. The only big contract that they'd want to unload would be Rendon, but that would be hard to do and yield very little in return.

 

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Also of note is that even though the Mariners won 116 games in 2001 and were pretty good for a couple more years after (winning 93 games in both 2002 and '03), they've probably been the worst franchise in baseball since then, with the longest playoff-less span in baseball by a good margin (this will be their 21st year in a row!). 

I'm not saying there's more than a correlative relationship through losing three superstars in three years, but it did help set the course of the franchise over the last two decades.

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I was actually thinking about the team currently in first place in our division and I was wondering about their one constant during their run, the little guy, Altuve.  Looking back now, wouldn't have been worth considering having traded Trout for Altuve (plus some other minor league talent) a few years back? 

Before I'm stoned to death on this board, think about it, that little guy can play and he seems to bring some serious intangibles to his team.  They just win.  Just a topic of discussion of course.  I personally would be heartbroken if they traded Trout... yes a generational talent.  Yeah, it makes you wonder.

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1 minute ago, notherhalo said:

Imagine if we had a stable of T100 prospects and a huge amount of payroll to sign a field of fresh FA's

Trade everyone but Trout and hope that we get him a ring / playoff chances in his Pujols years with us

this is our highest probability to win

Imagine if they just were healthy, had a shortstop that could hit and one additional truly premium starter.

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1 minute ago, notherhalo said:

Imagine if we had a stable of T100 prospects and a huge amount of payroll to sign a field of fresh FA's

Trade everyone but Trout and hope that we get him a ring / playoff chances in his Pujols years with us

this is our highest probability to win

This team seems to play with the added burden/pressure of getting Trout into the playoffs.  They don't seem to play relaxed.

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2 minutes ago, notherhalo said:

Imagine (insert 14 "ifs") scenario is the other plausible route

Bettor turns $10 into nearly $80,000, hitting incredible 14-leg college  football parlay with ALL UNDERS | This is the Loop | Golf Digest

Not sure what your point is.  Adding two good players to this team seems a whole lot smarter and easier than tearing the whole thing down to Trout alone and trying rebuild a whole roster around him.  If that’s not what you got from my post, then my bad I guess.

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2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

As people have mentioned, teams rarely get adequate returns on mega-stars like Ohtani. Trading him is a desperation move that implies: 1) You don't think you can (or want to) re-sign him, and 2) You don't plan on contending in the near future, and would rather get something than nothing for him, regardless of the fallout to players and fans.

As for the 2nd point, regardless of what we think, I don't think the Angels are giving up on contention in the near future. Ohtani would be a big part of that. As of this writing, he's 8th in the majors in total WAR (3.6) and moving up the list (he was out of the top 30 a couple weeks ago).

Trading him only makes sense if 1) There's little to no chance of contending in the near future, and 2) You are certain that you can get a good return.

I don't think either is true, so the Angels won't trade him. And this aside from PR (what it says to the other players, especially Trout) and economic elements (he's a huge cash draw).

The other problem is that there's only like 1 or 2 realistic trade partners at any given time, because you have to find the perfect mix of teams with a stacked farm system that are also willing to be aggressive in acquiring a player like Ohtani. Teams like the O's and Pirates have a strong farm system but no chance of going after Ohtani. The Rays are contenders with a great farm (Bradley/Edwards/Williams) but similarly are not the kind of team to make these kinds of trades. So you're left with the Jays, maybe the Padres and one or two more. Doesn't leave you with much leverage. 

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1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Actually, the Mariners are a good example of the pros and cons of trading away superstars. I mean, they lost three of the best players of the game after 1998 (Randy Johnson), 1999 (Ken Griffey Jr), and 2000 (Alex Rodriguez), and then won 116 games in 2001. They got a few decent players for Johnson in Garcia, Guillen, and Halama - but not enough to make up for losing one of the greatest pitchers of all time. Of course the Astros only got 11 starts out of Johnson (but with a 1.28 ERA!), and then he went to the Diamondbacks via free agency.

They did get a nice package for Griffey, most notably Mike Cameron who--while being far from peak Griffey--was actually significantly better than Griffey from that point on, and a lesser star in his own right.

They got zilch for A-Rod, though - as he left via free agency to the Rangers for that--at the time--massize 10/$250M contract.

Another recent trade that could be somewhat comparable is Mookie Betts  - who is probably the best recent player to be traded. The Red Sox partially used that to unload David Price, but still got a quality regular in Alex Verdugo and two solid prospects in Jeter Downs and Connor Wong. Still, Betts is one of the best players in the game.

So if the Angels traded Ohtani, probably the best they could hope for would be a Griffey-esque trade. The only big contract that they'd want to unload would be Rendon, but that would be hard to do and yield very little in return.

 

If it comes down to needing to trade him then pray for the Padres to come up JUST short of the Dodgers again because they have shown a willingness to move parts to win now.  They are in SoCal, they have McKenzie Gore and a minor league SS that would be about as good a return as the Angels could possibly get for Ohtani but mostly the Angels need to win and give him a reason to want to stick around.

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This will be 7th straight losing season. You trade him before he walks. This off season with many teams involved get what you can for him. I even sit down with Trout a as Angels have so many needs.nd see if he would accept a trade. A major reset is in order as Angels have so many needs. 

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