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Trout WAR update


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Because I know you all love WAR, here's the latest Fangraphs leaderboard:

 

4.4 M Cabrera

4.3 Trout

4.2 Gomez

4.2 Davis

4.1 Longoria

4.0 Machado

3.9 Tulowitzki

3.9 Gonzalez

3.7 Wright

3.6 E Cabrera

 

Other Angels (of 158 qualifiers):

 

#31: 2.3 Kendrick

#39: 2.0 Trumbo

#121: 0.5 Pujols

#146: -0.2 Hamilton

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One more. Even more amazing is his WAR total over 2012-13:

 

14.3 Trout

11.3 Cabrera

11.1 Wright

10.5 Posey

9.7 Cano

9.7 Molina

9.7 McCutchen

9.5 Braun

9.0 Headley

8.8 Votto

 

In other words, Mike Trout has been almost 27% better than any other major leaguer - according to WAR - over the last two seasons, almost a year and a half of play.

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On a different note, among all major leaguers with at least 130 PA, the Angels have three in the top 20 in batting average:

 

#4: Bourjos .345

#10: Kendrick .330

#19: Trout .317

 

Of course Peter won't stick up there for long, but it would be nice to see him pull off a .300 BA season. I think all three should be able to hit over .300. If we could only get Pujols and Aybar up there we could have five .300 hitters by season's end.

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Why is he like 1.3 games worse on BA's WAR?

 

Do you mean Baseball Reference? Anyhow, their defensive metric doesn't like Trout this year - his dWAR is -1.2 with an oWAR of 4.2 and a total WAR of 3.0. I'm not exactly sure why BR doesn't like Trout - hopefully one of the more statistically savvy folks can let us know.

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War is another counting stat, like RBIs, that rewards more playing time and opportunities.

 

Bourjos is credited with a paltry 1.0 WAR and that is primarily because he only has appeared in 32 games. Meanwhile Trout has not missed one game all year.  

 

Is Bourjos worth more than Trout? No. Is the difference in their true game values really as widespread as WAR presents? No.

 

 

Make WAR not RBI

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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mike-trout-and-the-greatest-age-21-season-of-all-time/

 

 

More Trout pron

 

"As good as Trout was last year, he was that great while only making contact 82% of the time, and those contact issues carried over in April. His contact improved in May without being reflected in his strikeout rate, but in June, he’s hitting everything he swings at and the result is a dramatic drop-off in strikeouts. Basically, Trout is showing signs of dramatic improvement in the the one area you could kind of point to as a deficiency. A strikeout-free version of Mike Trout is essentially the perfect baseball player."

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You didn't quote the best part:

 

"I think I’m going to stop putting a ceiling on what Mike Trout can do. The best 20-year-old ever might end the year as the best 21-year-old ever. We should appreciate what we’re seeing. No one has ever seen this before."

 

This is quite a statement coming from the usually very stoic Dave Cameron, someone who has gone on record as supporting Bryce Harper as having more upside than Trout.

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War is another counting stat, like RBIs, that rewards more playing time and opportunities.

 

Bourjos is credited with a paltry 1.0 WAR and that is primarily because he only has appeared in 32 games. Meanwhile Trout has not missed one game all year.  

 

Is Bourjos worth more than Trout? No. Is the difference in their true game values really as widespread as WAR presents? No.

No, you can lose WAR. You are either  creating  value or you aren't.

 

And a person in the lineup is much more valuable.

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Sorry Bash but you are wrong. With WAR you can create a negative value but it is just cumlative totals based on amount of playing time. Like RBIs are based on opportunity, except it is just a simple base number that only tracks sucess instead of weighted with failure. They are all just counting stats based upon opportunity.

If you took Bourjos numbers and projected them with the same amount of games played as Trout the WAR value would be closing in on Trouts value, only because of cumlative totals of games played, not that he played any better than he is now.

WAR is a counting stat.

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Sorry Bash but you are wrong. With WAR you can create a negative value but it is just cumlative totals based on amount of playing time. Like RBIs are based on opportunity, except it is just a simple base number that only tracks sucess instead of weighted with failure. They are all just counting stats based upon opportunity.

If you took Bourjos numbers and projected them with the same amount of games played as Trout the WAR value would be closing in on Trouts value, only because of cumlative totals of games played, not that he played any better than he is now.

WAR is a counting stat.

It's kind of a pointless misnomer. RBI's aren't measuring ability. WAR is and does it with a high degree of accuracy.

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