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2022 vs the 2002 team


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2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

the rotation was decent that year but not great.  Krod and Sheilds were stupid good.  They combined for almost 6 wins out of the pen.  The rest of the pen was decent.  But we're never going to see 2 guys eating 200 innings out of the pen.  It will take doing so with the top 3 guys which is why we need depth there.  

The starters FIP that year was 4.46 and they had 11.7 WAR.  This year it was 4.31 with 10.7 WAR.  

they had a 23.4 WAR offense (defense was slightly above avg.).  This year it was 13.1.  

I can't keep saying it because I think @Chuckster70 might ban me but the problem this year wasn't the rotation.  it was the offense and the defense.  the offense was hurt.  the defense sucked.  Yes, the rotation can improve but even if it stayed the same that wouldn't be horrific. 

A big thing i agree with here (whole post is good) is the offense. And it sucks, because it should have been really good.

But i think the piss poor offense the past several years has been masked by the bad rotation. Im not in any way suggesting "add a bat" over arms. But holy smokes has our offense been bad the past several years.

Essentially, in the past 5 years, its been trout, pujols, kole and cron? Simmons to a point?

And of those named, none aside from Trout was a star hitter.

Again, the pitching has been horrible and needs to be fixed. But the offense the past few years has been the worst (off the top of my head) i can remember since the early 90s. 

Obviously healthy trout and rendon coming back will be huge. I wont hold my breath on Ohtani repeating, but thats just because of how insane his first half this year was.

But I agree that this team is closer to a giant turnaround than most believe. If Walsh is for real, and Adell / Marsh take a step forward, I think the offense is going to be very, very good.

Add a reliable SP, and 2 pen arms that are capable, and the team gets very interesting. And if any of the young SPs breakout, we're a very good team.

And I think its easier to get there than most think, just because of how shitty we've been the last several years.

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7 hours ago, Torridd said:

From what I remember we had a lot of injuries in 2003, barring that, do you think we could have repeated?

No. I don't think the 2002 team had the talent to repeat. You can capture lightning in a bottle once, but generally not twice. The A's were just a deeper, more talented team. 

The 2004-09 teams were generally better, at least on paper. But they couldn't win the postseason.

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Defensively we have dropped significantly in Left/Right Range up the middle and this is due to a slower player in Iglesias -1.0 OAA (2020 stats was a +3.0) compared to Simba's 2021 OAA of +16.0 (2021) (Simba had a -1.0 OAA in 2020) (Simba's +16.0 dropped +3.0 from his +19.0 in 2019) Simba is still rated Top 5 in OAA. Which coincides with the differences from last year to this year with the Over shift. 

**Simba's batting has started the negative creep. Even though he is still considered a solid defensive shortstop.**

 

The main issue with the over-shift is when you are dealing with young arms who are less consistent within the strike-zone. Now, you have your players over shifted and the pitcher misses his spot. But, still gets a ground ball and your fielder can't make the play or attempts a bad throw or boobles on the exchange. (which we saw plenty of this last season with Iglesias).

 

Back in 2002 Eckstein was close to a +7.0 OAA at shortstop... Also, it was a different game and less adjustments to pull/oppo infield shift instead of an over shift. Which also coincided with the Pitching staff who were predominantly veterans who knew how to pitch and hit their spots. Lackey knew how to pitch to contact and KROD simply threw the ball by people or fooled them with his slider.

 

Now, if we are talking 2021/2022 Free Agent Shortstops Carlos Correa is the Best available at a +12.0 OAA with a 79% success rate. Which wouldn't take into affect of any over-shift or lack of consistency within the strike zone from our pitching staff.

20211013_172643.jpg

 

 

 

The MAIN Difference between 02 & 21 is when you get into Line-ups, Injuries, Bullpen and overall pitching staff Consistency within the strike zone. = Less inherited Runners and those Runners Scoring.

 

ron burgundy anchorman GIF

 

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2022 team should be better on offense than the 2002 team.

The best postion players on the 2002 team were Salmon and Fullmer, Anderson being in third. (By OPS+)

The best by bWAR was Erstad, at 6.3, which is obviously mainly defense and position, as he actually had a sub 100 OPS+. Next was Eckstein at 5.2, then Anderson at 5.0, Kennedy at 4.5, Glaus at 4.4 and Salmon at 4.0. Fullmer checked in at 2.9, Spiezio at 2.5 and Palmiero at 1.1. Then you had Benji Gil at 0.8 and Bengie Molina at 0.4.

The top position players on the 2022 team, if healthy, will be Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, Walsh and Fletcher likely, unless they add a top SS. Or one of Marsh / Adell / Upton has a great year. Trout, Ohtani, and Rendon will be superior to Salmon, Fullmer, and Anderson or to Erstad, Fullmer, and Glaus if you're going by position.

But what about the rest of the team?

In 2021, Ohtani's bWAR as a batter (4.9) only would've placed 4th on the 2002 squad. Walsh, who was second at 2.9 would've slotted in tied for 7th.

But Trout and Rendon really didn't play much, Taking out Glaus and Erstad would have dramatically affected the 02 team WAR.

Looking 2002 vs 2022, by position then, Trout should top Erstad, easily. Fletcher would have to return to 2020 numbers (2.0 in 49 games = 5.4 in 132 games, possibly more WAR in more games) to top either Eckstein or Kennedy. I don't know if Adell will top Anderson's 5.0, or Marsh top Salmon's 4.0 or that they'd account for 9 WAR between the two of them, or if you include Upton, 10.1 for the three OF not names Trout seems like a bit of a stretch. Rendon though should easily top Glaus if healthy at the hot corner. Ohtani should easily top Fullmer, and Walsh should top Spiezio, especially if he improves his defense (which though we like it, doesn't play well against the fielding numbers). Stassi, if healthy and hitting, will top Bengie's 0.4, but will the catching duo or trio top the 02 team's catchers?

At SS, though, they'd have to sign Semien, Story or Seager to top Eckstein, and only Semien and Lowe as a 2nd baseman topped Kennedy's 4.5 (Altuve was 3rd among 2B at 4.4).

The bench of Palmiero, Gil, Ochoa, Amezaga, and Shawn Wooten minus a few negative WAR players who didn't play much totalled a 1.5 WAR positive. I don't know if Ward, Rengifo, Thaiss, Davis, Mayfield, Stefanic, Rojas, a few backup Catchers besides Thaiss, and possibly Gosselin get to a 1.5 positive. I didn't include Upton here, as I have him and the two young OF as three starters in two positions. Not everything will compare exactly.

Certainly Ward is capable of getting to 1.1 and Rengifo could get to 1.2 (Amezaga and Gil combined) and perhaps thats more important as the primary bench guys. Thaiss as a C probably rates negative as they most certainly won't like his defense, but I say he would be just fine in part time duty. If Stassi can get to 90 games that is. If not, you'll have to get a Suzuki (-0.5 WAR).

The 2021 team was dragged down by -7.0 WAR by the bench and replacement guys, so the total of 8.1 is a bit misleading. They need health as Trout was at 1.8 in just 36 games, meaning a full season puts him over 8 if you prorate it (probably over 9 in reality) and Rendon probably is a 6-7 win player if healthy. That's like 15 WAR and eliminating at least -2.0 WAR from their replacements. That would put the 2021 team around 25.1 WAR.

Add that to improvements from Fletcher (+3 WAR hopefully or with Davis taking some of his AB's to be +2), Adell and Marsh (likely just with playing time maybe +5, I saw someone say they could be 5/6 WAR players I think they meant combined), and whatever they do at SS, Semien's 7.1 was 2nd in all of baseball among position players who didn't also pitch (and it looks really good versus Iglesias -1.0 and Rengifo -0.5) but even Story's 4.2 would be a dramatic improvement.

The 2022 team could conceivably be in the 40's for position player WAR.

They wouldn't need to get any star pitching to make the playoffs, but even adding Jon Gray and say Robbie Ray or Marcus Stroman, and you're in great shape.

 

 

 

 

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Rotation needs more than anything a solid starter who doesn’t miss starts.

That would be Stroman, who has at least 32 starts in four of the past 5 full seasons with solid stats in those four seasons (including cumulative 3.47 ERA and only 1 HR allowed every 10 innings).

Need no more seasons where few starters exceed 100 innings!

Edited by Angel Oracle
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2 hours ago, Revad said:

Hmmmm, Wicketmaiden is this discussion your responsibility?

https://anchor.fm/laangelsuk/episodes/Adam-Rank-Returns-e1616ad

 

Not me @Revad, nothing to do with me at all. Did you listen to much of it? I couldn't get past the first few minutes, it was like listening to a few guys down the pub yelling from an adjacent table. Not my sort of thing at all. 

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2 hours ago, WicketMaiden said:

Not me @Revad, nothing to do with me at all. Did you listen to much of it? I couldn't get past the first few minutes, it was like listening to a few guys down the pub yelling from an adjacent table. Not my sort of thing at all. 

I love what you do on the podcast, maybe I’m thinking of Effectively Wild.  I get confused.  You need more content dude give up life and do that.

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20 minutes ago, Revad said:

I love what you do on the podcast, maybe I’m thinking of Effectively Wild.  I get confused.  You need more content dude give up life and do that.

No. Sorry @Revad not me either, chap. I don't do a podcast, the written word is much more my thing. I think a couple of the podcasters have posted here, I don't know who they are though. But thanks for being nice anyway.

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On 10/13/2021 at 5:55 PM, Hubs said:

2022 team should be better on offense than the 2002 team.

The best postion players on the 2002 team were Salmon and Fullmer, Anderson being in third. (By OPS+)

The best by bWAR was Erstad, at 6.3, which is obviously mainly defense and position, as he actually had a sub 100 OPS+. Next was Eckstein at 5.2, then Anderson at 5.0, Kennedy at 4.5, Glaus at 4.4 and Salmon at 4.0. Fullmer checked in at 2.9, Spiezio at 2.5 and Palmiero at 1.1. Then you had Benji Gil at 0.8 and Bengie Molina at 0.4.

The top position players on the 2022 team, if healthy, will be Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, Walsh and Fletcher likely, unless they add a top SS. Or one of Marsh / Adell / Upton has a great year. Trout, Ohtani, and Rendon will be superior to Salmon, Fullmer, and Anderson or to Erstad, Fullmer, and Glaus if you're going by position.

But what about the rest of the team?

In 2021, Ohtani's bWAR as a batter (4.9) only would've placed 4th on the 2002 squad. Walsh, who was second at 2.9 would've slotted in tied for 7th.

But Trout and Rendon really didn't play much, Taking out Glaus and Erstad would have dramatically affected the 02 team WAR.

Looking 2002 vs 2022, by position then, Trout should top Erstad, easily. Fletcher would have to return to 2020 numbers (2.0 in 49 games = 5.4 in 132 games, possibly more WAR in more games) to top either Eckstein or Kennedy. I don't know if Adell will top Anderson's 5.0, or Marsh top Salmon's 4.0 or that they'd account for 9 WAR between the two of them, or if you include Upton, 10.1 for the three OF not names Trout seems like a bit of a stretch. Rendon though should easily top Glaus if healthy at the hot corner. Ohtani should easily top Fullmer, and Walsh should top Spiezio, especially if he improves his defense (which though we like it, doesn't play well against the fielding numbers). Stassi, if healthy and hitting, will top Bengie's 0.4, but will the catching duo or trio top the 02 team's catchers?

At SS, though, they'd have to sign Semien, Story or Seager to top Eckstein, and only Semien and Lowe as a 2nd baseman topped Kennedy's 4.5 (Altuve was 3rd among 2B at 4.4).

The bench of Palmiero, Gil, Ochoa, Amezaga, and Shawn Wooten minus a few negative WAR players who didn't play much totalled a 1.5 WAR positive. I don't know if Ward, Rengifo, Thaiss, Davis, Mayfield, Stefanic, Rojas, a few backup Catchers besides Thaiss, and possibly Gosselin get to a 1.5 positive. I didn't include Upton here, as I have him and the two young OF as three starters in two positions. Not everything will compare exactly.

Certainly Ward is capable of getting to 1.1 and Rengifo could get to 1.2 (Amezaga and Gil combined) and perhaps thats more important as the primary bench guys. Thaiss as a C probably rates negative as they most certainly won't like his defense, but I say he would be just fine in part time duty. If Stassi can get to 90 games that is. If not, you'll have to get a Suzuki (-0.5 WAR).

The 2021 team was dragged down by -7.0 WAR by the bench and replacement guys, so the total of 8.1 is a bit misleading. They need health as Trout was at 1.8 in just 36 games, meaning a full season puts him over 8 if you prorate it (probably over 9 in reality) and Rendon probably is a 6-7 win player if healthy. That's like 15 WAR and eliminating at least -2.0 WAR from their replacements. That would put the 2021 team around 25.1 WAR.

Add that to improvements from Fletcher (+3 WAR hopefully or with Davis taking some of his AB's to be +2), Adell and Marsh (likely just with playing time maybe +5, I saw someone say they could be 5/6 WAR players I think they meant combined), and whatever they do at SS, Semien's 7.1 was 2nd in all of baseball among position players who didn't also pitch (and it looks really good versus Iglesias -1.0 and Rengifo -0.5) but even Story's 4.2 would be a dramatic improvement.

The 2022 team could conceivably be in the 40's for position player WAR.

They wouldn't need to get any star pitching to make the playoffs, but even adding Jon Gray and say Robbie Ray or Marcus Stroman, and you're in great shape.

 

 

 

 

There is just no way next year's team matches the 2002 team's numbers.

Sure it's possible but it would require full health from Trout and Rendon, Ohtani repeating, Fletcher bouncing back to 2020 levels, Walsh maintaining his level, both Marsh and Adell breaking out to borderline All Star level and signing a top shortstop.

Even if that happens you have to ask how likely we are to match that team on the pitching side...

What is missed in this discussion is defense. Part of the reason for the high war totals from the 2002 side were great defensive metrics. It's not just that the 2021 team sucked at defense, it's also that it's becoming harder to produce defensive value in todays game, vs 20 years ago. There are far fewer chances due to the he increases in walks, Ks and homeruns. 

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2 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

There is just no way next year's team matches the 2002 team's numbers.

Sure it's possible but it would require full health from Trout and Rendon, Ohtani repeating, Fletcher bouncing back to 2020 levels, Walsh maintaining his level, both Marsh and Adell breaking out to borderline All Star level and signing a top shortstop.

Even if that happens you have to ask how likely we are to match that team on the pitching side...

What is missed in this discussion is defense. Part of the reason for the high war totals from the 2002 side were great defensive metrics. It's not just that the 2021 team sucked at defense, it's also that it's becoming harder to produce defensive value in todays game, vs 20 years ago. There are far fewer chances due to the he increases in walks, Ks and homeruns. 

I mentioned literally all of this. The first part of my post was that the 2022 team should be better than 2002 ON OFFENSE.

I talked about Health.

I mentioned Fletcher hopefully bounces back to 2020 or 2019, I mentioned if Marsh or Adell breakout, and I mentioned signing a top SS.

Defensive WAR is being worked in for position players, but the 2022 team should be literally so much better on offense if everyone is healthy that the slight regression in defense mainly in the OF, as Kennedy and Eckstein were just average defensively, Rendon is Glaus's equal or better, Stassi is better than Molina on defense, and Walsh and Spiezio were pretty much equals. But Erstad is superior to Trout, defensively, and even Anderson is better than Adell/Upton in left. Marsh should be better than Salmon in right. Although, I would expect to see many different lineups with Marsh/Adell/Upton/Ward slotting in around Trout in different combos. Trout could even play some left, as he did in 2012. A top SS makeds the infield defense at least on par with 2002's infield, and while the OF wont be quite as good as the Erstad led bunch, Trout alone if healthy nearly makes up the difference on offense.

That team on the pitching side had a 18.4 WAR, but the post said the 2022 team would match or exceed the 2002 team on offense.

The biggest difference between 2022 and 2002 will of course be health, the 2002 team had 2 starters at 200+ IP and they only used 8 starters. (Shields pitched 1, Callaway 6, Schoeneweis had 15 and Lackey 18. Sele had 26 and Appier, Ortiz, and Washburn all had 32 starts).

2021 the Angels used 17 starters.  Three of those could be considered bullpen games, whereas even Shields 1 starts wasn't a true BP game.

The 2021 team did have a 14.3 WAR from its pitching, with Ohtani leading the way with 4.1 pitching WAR and then Iglesias being second at 2.8. Then Sandoval 2.1, Suarez's 1.9, and Alex Cobb 1.7 round out the top 5. You'd think the 2002's top 5 was better, Washburn leading the way with 4.5. Ortiz followed at 3.1, Percival 3rd at 2.4, then Appier at 1.8 and Ben Weber and Brenden Donnelly tied for fifth at 1.7.

So adding a top starter, which they said they want to do, Bringing back Cobb or signing an equivalent pitcher like Jon Gray, bringing back Iglesias, and getting a few healthy years from Sandoval, Suarez, Canning and Barria, to say nothing of Detmers, Bachman, Rodriguez, or others makes this team right there with the 2002's pitching staff. Scherzer had a 5.3 WAR and Stroman had a 3.6.

 

 

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37 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

a lot went right in 2002.  That's the nature of a team that wins the world series for the most part.  When you don't have a perfect roster, which most teams don't, then you've got to be San Fran or Boston and have a lot go your way 

The most similar team to 2002 in energy was the 2019 Nationals.

I hope we get some of this in 2022.

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