MLBTR 2022 Projected Arbitration Salaries

[totdprods]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2022.html

Always a great resource going into the off-season, and usually really accurate.

For the Angels, Guerra and Barreto are easy non-tenders I would think. Perhaps Barreto is re-signed on a minor league deal. Gosselin at $1.5m is a bit much, especially with our infield depth, so it is likely the Goose is turned loose. Stassi and Mayers almost certainly return, unless the Angels have bigger plans.

I would closely look at the names for the Rays, Athletics, Guardians, Yankees, Orioles, Braves and Reds. All are tight on salary and looking to trim. The Rays, with 19 arb. eligible players are especially ripe for picking. The Yankees are in the same boat, and I expect arhat team does quite a bit of a shuffle this winter. Lots of players could be of interest to the Halos in trades or as non-tenders.

The Tigers, Mets, and Twins a bit as well, mostly due to sheer number of arb. eligible players they have, but most are cheaper and less inclined to deal.

[Blarg]

Stassi and Mayers are the only two I would bother with arbitration and in Stassi's case I would consider a team friendly 5 year offer. Even if his skills start to fade he would be locked in as a quality backup in the last two years of the contract.

[Junkballer]

Wouldn't mind seeing Gosselin retained and some of that infield depth packaged in a trade(s).

[BTH]

To me, they gotta let Gosselin go at that arb price.

They can get similar production from Mayfield, Rojas, and maybe even Rengifo. Gosselin's bad defensively and Maddon thinks he is better than he actually is offensively.

[Angels 1961]

I keep Gosselin he hits lefties. Platoon once in awhile at 1B. I let Mayers go.

[totdprods]

20 minutes ago, Junkballer said:

Wouldn't mind seeing Gosselin retained and some of that infield depth packaged in a trade(s).

There are a lot of different ways they can go. Retaining would be fine, cutting and promoting some more youth would probably be okay too. I agree with @Trendon about retaining Gosselin at $1.5m though. I like what he brings but not sure I’d go even a mil for him.

I still think someone like Chris Taylor or Mark Canha could domino our depth in interesting ways too, and different ways for either player. Canha could hold down 1B against RHP and a corner outfield spot if they feel keeping both Adell and Marsh active would cut into their playing time too much (or if one is dealt) presuming Upton is still here and Trout is healthy. Taylor might not be an everyday shortstop, but he could get a majority of the time there with some combo of Rengifo, Fletcher, and Mayfield holding down the rest of the time. He’d give them a 4th OF and UT IF as well. 

[BTH]

21 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

I keep Gosselin he hits lefties. Platoon once in awhile at 1B. I let Mayers go.

While it's true that Gosselin is better vs. lefties than righties, he isn't good vs. lefties.

He has a 96 wRC+ vs. lefties and an 80 wRC+ against righties.

His .696 OPS vs. lefties isn't good.

[jsnpritchett]

23 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

I keep Gosselin he hits lefties. Platoon once in awhile at 1B. I let Mayers go.

He hits lefties better than righties--but that doesn't mean he hits lefties WELL.  I think some of that perception was just hype created by the announcers early on in 2021.  He did start out hot against lefties, but by the end of the year, he had a .696 OPS vs lefties (and a .661 OPS against righties).  For his career, he's at .278/.357/.365 against lefties.  Decent avg and OBP, but pretty much zero pop, which is a problem if he's primarily playing corner IF/OF positions, with marginal-at-best defense.

[jsnpritchett]

2 minutes ago, Trendon said:

While it's true that Gosselin is better vs. lefties than righties, he isn't good vs. lefties.

He has a 96 wRC+ vs. lefties and an 80 wRC+ against righties.

His .696 OPS vs. lefties isn't good.

Lol.  Beat me to it.  You posted this while I was typing up my post.  Totally agree.

[failos]

Lol I forgot Barreto existed. What a horrible trade that was. Eppler made some pretty bad moves.

[totdprods]

9 minutes ago, Trendon said:

While it's true that Gosselin is better vs. lefties than righties, he isn't good vs. lefties.

He has a 96 wRC+ vs. lefties and an 80 wRC+ against righties.

His .696 OPS vs. lefties isn't good.

He had a good run there for awhile…on his career he’s still at a .722 OPS against lefties. He got far too many bats and it overexposes bench players like him.

I wouldn’t be sad to see him go, but if he’s on the team still I won’t mind. They could find better but they’ve also had far worse in recent years, might not be worth gambling. 

But that $1.5m might be far more useful on a reliever.

[BTH]

17 minutes ago, failos said:

Lol I forgot Barreto existed. What a horrible trade that was. Eppler made some pretty bad moves.

The toughest part about that trade is that Barreto was out of options. He has no flexibility. Maybe he becomes usable after he gets a season's worth of AB's in the minors. Instead, he has to be on the major league roster and is injured for the entire season.

[BTH]

13 minutes ago, totdprods said:

He had a good run there for awhile…on his career he’s still at a .722 OPS against lefties. He got far too many bats and it overexposes bench players like him.

I wouldn’t be sad to see him go, but if he’s on the team still I won’t mind. They could find better but they’ve also had far worse in recent years, might not be worth gambling. 

But that $1.5m might be far more useful on a reliever.

Yep.

I also don't like that he's out of options. That provides a lack of roster flexibility.

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, Angels 1961 said:

I keep Gosselin he hits lefties. Platoon once in awhile at 1B. I let Mayers go.

I am, not surprisingly, in total disagreement. Gosselin is redundant. Mayers had a good second half, if he wasn't as dominant as in 2020, he was still an effective bullpen arm.

[greginpsca]

Mayer isn't worth 2.2m. Non-tender him, then try to resign him for about $1.5m. The savings can pay for another bp arm at minimum pay.

[Hubs]

16 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

Mayer isn't worth 2.2m. Non-tender him, then try to resign him for about $1.5m. The savings can pay for another bp arm at minimum pay.

He totally is worth that. 7th innning guys get paid that. That is what he is. Guerra, Mayers, Stassi are all back.

[greginpsca]

2 minutes ago, Hubs said:

He totally is worth that. 7th innning guys get paid that. That is what he is. Guerra, Mayers, Stassi are all back.

Guerra has no business being on the team going forward. As far as Mayer goes, if they non-tender him and he goes elsewhere, i don't think he gets anything more than $1.5m.

[jsnpritchett]

6 minutes ago, Hubs said:

He totally is worth that. 7th innning guys get paid that. That is what he is. Guerra, Mayers, Stassi are all back.

For what possible reason would Guerra be back?

[BTH]

27 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

Mayer isn't worth 2.2m. Non-tender him, then try to resign him for about $1.5m. The savings can pay for another bp arm at minimum pay.

Seriously?

He is totally worth $2.2M. $2.2M won't get you a reliever the quality of Mike Mayers in free agency.

[ettin]

Mayers is worth $2.2M, he ran a 20.3% K%-BB% rate this year and was even higher in 2020. He will get paid more than that if we kick him into free agency, so either trade him or retain him, but don't let him go for free.

[totdprods]

Mayers is almost certainly back, but I will agree not necessarily 100% a sure thing. It’s up there though. 

Perry could rebuild the whole pen again.

Honestly, if it saved us some prospect currency, I wouldn’t be against utilizing Mayers’ value in a deal to a club with tight payroll needs…such as in a deal for someone like Will Smith, Edwin Diaz, Josh Hader. He obviously would not be the centerpiece, but if including him meant we kept a mid-range prospect or better in a deal for one of those (or someone similar) I would consider it. 

For example, Braves could cut Smith’s $13m salary by offloading him to the Halos, promoting someone like Jackson up to closer, replacing Jackson’s role with Mayers, and save them a few mil without really losing much in their pen, money they can use for other needs. Angels get a closer if Raisel walks, or a hell of a set-up man for him. Again, this would feature another prospect or two from us, but maybe it wouldn’t hurt as bad.

Edited October 11, 2021 by totdprods

[ettin]

7 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Angels get a closer if Raisel walks, or a hell of a set-up man for him.

Got your overall point, but it will be nearly impossible for the Angels to take on Iglesias and a $13M Smith option, as well, unless they find pre-arbitration arms in trade (which means top prospects are heading out the door).

Minasian will potentially have to get creative, I agree.

[totdprods]

Oakland
Deals within the division are of course rare, but the Athletics are at that stage where they will start shuffling the deck to save money, and Sean Manaea ($10.2m) or, far less likely, Chris Bassitt ($8.8m) or Frankie Montas ($5.5m) could be theoretical targets.
Someone low cost with more control (Canning? Barria? Suarez?) could be of interest to Oakland, as could the young relief group. Elvis Andrus could be a salary dump that could lessen the cost for the Angels too and theoretically fill a hole at SS, almost like a mash-up of the Jose Iglesias and Dexter Fowler deals. All of these scenarios are among the unlikeliest, but still make enough sense to not discount.

Atlanta
The Braves like to keep payroll tight and move early in the offseason, much like the Angels both under Eppler and Minasian, and with Perry's familiarity with the org and Atlanta having fifteen arb-eligible players, there could be a match. Adam Duvall at $9.1m could RF/1B, Jackson, Dayton, Rodriguez, Minter, and Matzek are all relievers creeping into the low millions in arb, and while not arb-eligible, Will Smith and his sizeable salary could be a hypothetical Raisel Iglesias 2.0 trade, where the Angels nab a costly closer a year from free agency. 

Milwaukee
At $10m, much like with Will Smith, it wouldn't surprise me if the Angels kicked the tires on Josh Hader. 

Chicago Cubs
Willson Contreras will have one year left and an arb salary landing near $9m. While the Angels have a perfectly capable catcher in Stassi, it also wouldn't surprise me if they leveraged his value in another trade (to NYY with Canning for Gleyber?) and made a move for a Maddon favorite in Contreras. 

Cleveland
The incoming Guardians will likely keep payroll tight, much like the Indians before them. Catcher Austin Hedges ($3.8m), infielder Amed Rosario ($5m), and reliever Nick Wittgren ($2.8m) all seem like reasonable trade targets who could be on the fringes in Cleveland, given their salary. They also could use cheap MLB-ready bats, of which anyone from Rengifo to Thaiss to Ward to Rojas could make sense.

Miami
They might not be as frugal in years past as they start to come into the contention picture, but Garrett Cooper ($3m) could fill replace Gosselin as a right-handed hitting power upgrade at 1B/RF off the bench in place of Gosselin, whose infield utility would fall to Mayfield or Rengifo with Rendon returning. Jorge Alfaro is likely a non-tender, and he could provide a more MLB-tested option as a back-up catcher with further utility in the field if they don't deem Thaiss or Ward ready to handle a similar role. Dylan Floro or Richard Bleier, each projected for $2.5m, could be feasible relief targets too. The Angels could perhaps look to exchange some of their fringier young pitching (Criswell, Tyler, Wantz, Diaz, Peguero) for a more proven arm, sacrificing some club control but opening some 40-man room in the process. 

New York Mets
Edwin Diaz's projected $10.4m puts him in similar ideas like mentioned above with Will Smith or Josh Hader. Seth Lugo ($3.7m), Trevor Williams ($3.8m), Miguel Castro ($2.6m), Joey Lucchesi ($1.6m), and Robert Gsellman ($1.6m) all represent further options if New York decides they need to reallocate some dollars elsewhere, though new owner Steve Cohen has shown little indication a high payroll is of any concern to him.

Baltimore
They've made surprising non-tenders of productive, relatively cheap players before (Villar, Alberto), but it's still likely they retain guys like catcher Pedro Severino and outfielder Anthony Santander, especially as their youth movements inches closer. Either way, both could be worth watching, especially as the Angels and Orioles have matched up frequently in recent trades.

Pittsburgh
Several Pirates arms stand to land in the $2-$3m range in arbitration this winter, meaning there's a chance Pittsburgh parts with a few, especially to help continue their rebuild. Chasen Shreve, Chad Kuhl, Chris Stratton, and Steven Brault all come with decent to good numbers, and the last three offer multi-inning/spot starting utility. Catcher Jacob Stallings could represent a great opportunity to buy a catcher who could serve in an everyday capacity or be a plus back-up. 

Tampa Bay
WIth a staggering nineteen players hitting arbitration, there might be no better opportunity for the Angels to address some needs than dealing with Tampa. No one is untouchable for the Rays - you could even argue Tyler Glasnow could be a target, especially if the Halos have dreams of the postseason in 2022, and any number of Rays relievers (Drake, Wisler, Conley, Reed, Kittredge, Beeks, Mejia, Springs, and Anderson) could be discussed. Yandy Diaz could serve as an interesting bench corner infielder, and at $5m, Manuel Margot might no longer be affordable in the Tampa outfield as he only offers plus defense and league average offense. Joey Wendle could theoretically handle shortstop, or he could take over 2B with Fletcher shifting over. The Rays feature such a deep farm that they might not have a choice here, needing to move on from a few players for non-40 man prospects to keep their pipeline flowing. 

New York Yankees
The Yankees are up against the luxury tax again and will be looking to fill needs in the rotation, lineup, and bullpen this offseason to try and rectify another disappointing season. Like Tampa, New York also has nineteen players hitting arbitration, including some significant names who will draw significant dollars; Gallo at $10.2m, Sanchez at $7.9m, Urshela at $6.2m, Voit at $5.4m, Torres at $5.9m, Frazier at $2.4m, and Andujar at $1.7m. In their quest to improve, it's possible New York cuts ties with any number of these names to free up some salary to pursue talent that is more consistent in producing, giving the Angels an opportunity to make a deal and fill a need, as theoretically any of the above could find a spot on the Angels team.

 

[totdprods]

36 minutes ago, ettin said:

Got your overall point, but it will be nearly impossible for the Angels to take on Iglesias and a $13M Smith option, as well, unless they find pre-arbitration arms in trade (which means top prospects are heading out the door).

Minasian will potentially have to get creative, I agree.

There's a chance Atlanta kicks in a small portion, as Cincy did in the Iglesias trade (how in the hell did Minasian pull that off?), and Iglesias' deal could be slightly backloaded, making that impact a little more manageable. Also, it could be in place of Raisel. 

From there, they could roll with a lot of youth in the bullpen, or more Cishek/Watson type deals, nabbing vets for super cheap, $1m deals. Is this the best scenario? No, but it's certainly realistic. 

I do think there's a path where they go heavy on pen; Iglesias, someone like Smith for a one-two punch, roll with kids and a couple cheap vets, re-sign Cobb ($8m?), and maybe one more SP arm that isn't a high salary and call it a day, aside from a couple cheap Iglesias, Fowler, Suzuki-types to fill out depth. 

Edited October 11, 2021 by totdprods

[ettin]

26 minutes ago, totdprods said:

There's a chance Atlanta kicks in a small portion, as Cincy did in the Iglesias trade (how in the hell did Minasian pull that off?), and Iglesias' deal could be slightly backloaded, making that impact a little more manageable. Also, it could be in place of Raisel. 

From there, they could roll with a lot of youth in the bullpen, or more Cishek/Watson type deals, nabbing vets for super cheap, $1m deals. Is this the best scenario? No, but it's certainly realistic. 

I do think there's a path where they go heavy on pen; Iglesias, someone like Smith for a one-two punch, roll with kids and a couple cheap vets, re-sign Cobb ($8m?), and maybe one more SP arm that isn't a high salary and call it a day, aside from a couple cheap Iglesias, Fowler, Suzuki-types to fill out depth. 

Atlanta is a small market team, so I really feel like they would not kick in much, no more than like $2M-$3M, so I think this particular (Smith) scenario is pretty remote. However, the latter part of your comment is a distinct possibility, but if the Angels are beefing up the back-end of their bullpen, rather than the front part of their rotation, I think all of us will be lamenting on a terrible offseason, in all likelihood (may still result in a good 2022 season, but we will all be very angry when we hit Opening Day).