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Angels WAR Report


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10 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Oh and Fletch with his 0.3 in 665 PA is the 8th worst in all of baseball.   That's beyond miserable.  I like the guy.  I really do, but you can't go into 2022 without a contingency plan to replace him.  He had a -0.9 WAR in the second half.  I don't care how good his defense is, that's just unacceptable.  He's probably earned the right to bounce back but that's a problem.  Or at least a huge and fairly easy opportunity to improve. 

I like Fletch too, but going into 2022, he cannot be relied on to start 162. Not if he's not hitting like he did in 2020 and 2019. His average went from .290 to .319 to .262 and his OBP went from .350 to .376 to .297. His slugging went from .384 to .425 to. 324.

He had two good months in 2021, sandwiched by two bad months on either side.

He did well against lefties, and somewhat less well against righties. I would not be opposed to bringing in a lefty to take some of his AB's like LaStella would've. Maybe someone like Kyle Seager (who moves Rendon to 2nd) if he doesn't get a full time starting job. I don't know how many AB's he'd get, but bringing in both Seager brothers may be a nice get.

I'm sure there are much greater fits, but I just want to push getting one of the five SS (and his brother).

 

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3 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

If you compare them over the 3-5 seasons leading into free agency, Iglesias looks a lot better. Hendriks basically came out of nowhere to be good. Iglesias has pretty much always been good. 
 

Add the fact that last year no one knew what revenue would look like for 2021 and this year they do (or better) and I would not be surprised if Iglesias gets what Hendriks got (or more).

I’d give him a QO.

I know you all want the Angels to sign two SPs in the 15-20M range but that seems like a stretch, so I am not sure they are losing out on anyone if they overpay for Iglesias. 

Wouldn't the QO be the only logical reason why Angels didn't trade Iglesias? 

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 Iglesias needs 3 more years to qualify for a MLB pension. I don't think it would be wise for him to sign a deal for anything less than 3 years. A 3 year deal or more takes any injury risk out of the equation. I think he is at that point in his career to where a pension is part of his long term goals.

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2 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Value is value. If Baez can be gotten for a reasonable price there is no reason to avoid him. 

I admit to being somewhat biased to guys that don't take walks. The problem is that the margin is rather small, both with decline and slumps. When Trout slumps, he still gets on base like an elite lead-off man. Meaning, if you walk 80+ times a year and maintain that during slumps, you're still not going to kill your team. But Baez doesn't walk at all, so when he slumps, he's really bad. We've seen this with Fletcher, as well.

That said, if I look at Baez objectively, he's a good player and likely would help the Angels, at least for 2-3 years. He's a good defender, has speed, and hits 30 HR a year. He's about a 4 WAR player. But his overall offense is merely good: lifetime wRC+ of 103, or 113 over the last four seasons, which seems to be his true talent level.

But my concern is that there still may be a perception that he's better than he actually is. So for me, where I see a 4 WAR 29-year old shortstop and could live with a 4/$75M contract, he's probably going to get 5-6 years at $20M+, which could be disastrous for half of it. The last thing we need is another albatross contract, especially for a player that we don't absolutely need.

I think, in the end, the Angels can only really acquire one premier free agent, plus one mid-range ones; or, three mid-range ones (plus, in either case, several lower cost ones). I'd rather see them use their big contract on the best starter they can get than Baez (or Story). Correa would be a bit more tempting, but I think he'll be priced out.

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32 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I admit to being somewhat biased to guys that don't take walks. The problem is that the margin is rather small, both with decline and slumps. When Trout slumps, he still gets on base like an elite lead-off man. Meaning, if you walk 80+ times a year and maintain that during slumps, you're still not going to kill your team. But Baez doesn't walk at all, so when he slumps, he's really bad. We've seen this with Fletcher, as well.

That said, if I look at Baez objectively, he's a good player and likely would help the Angels, at least for 2-3 years. He's a good defender, has speed, and hits 30 HR a year. He's about a 4 WAR player. But his overall offense is merely good: lifetime wRC+ of 103, or 113 over the last four seasons, which seems to be his true talent level.

But my concern is that there still may be a perception that he's better than he actually is. So for me, where I see a 4 WAR 29-year old shortstop and could live with a 4/$75M contract, he's probably going to get 5-6 years at $20M+, which could be disastrous for half of it. The last thing we need is another albatross contract, especially for a player that we don't absolutely need.

I think, in the end, the Angels can only really acquire one premier free agent, plus one mid-range ones; or, three mid-range ones (plus, in either case, several lower cost ones). I'd rather see them use their big contract on the best starter they can get than Baez (or Story). Correa would be a bit more tempting, but I think he'll be priced out.

I think they can spend around 75-80M. That includes Iglesias's 12-15. So, Maybe 60-65. So that's enough for an Ace and a SS.

Will Scherzer sign for 25-30-35 and a 10M 4th year buyout or 35M opt?

Can they get Story for 25M AAV with lower value in 2022 and 2023?

If they can do those three, and then get say Cobb and Jon Gray, they are in contention for the division if healthy.

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2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I just have a really hard time believing that the halos would potentially commit 19m to a reliever unless payroll went up and I doubt it's going to.  To me, the main reason they didn't trade him was more about saving face to the rest of the players on the team and maybe to the fans.  

Sadly that's my assumption too... I just can't help but think that this will finally be the year that the organization will act competently and rationally towards the goal of actually winning. HA!

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I still don’t see the Angels offering a QO to Iglesias.  The team has a budget, and even if we see that budget increased it isn’t increasing to the tax threshold, especially with the lack of attendance.  Spending $19 million on a closer when they need a TOR arm, a solid middle of the rotation arm, two other decent pieces in the pen, a SS and a back up catcher, would be a mistake. 

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I understand the risk, but I'm not sure Iglesias takes the QO. He's probably looking for a 3 year deal and the older he gets the less likely that is. He turns 32 in January. Plus, it's not like he's only going to get $10 million a year. He's getting at least $15 million. 

If $4 million is going to kill the budget than we're fucked.

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I guess I look at it like this.  Minasian found Iglesias on the trade market, cost him nothing as far as prospects and paid him $8 million. If he could sign a closer or trade for a closer in the $9-12 million range you can then afford a McHugh type with the difference. 

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I don't think there's any closer on the free agent market that makes sense. Maybe Rosenthal since he missed all of 2021.

I'd kill for Josh Hader but that would cost far too much. Edwin Diaz maybe? 

A package deal is probably the best way to go if we're going the trade route. Could try a package deal for Alcantara and Dylan Foro from Miami but that's going to fucking hurt. A lot. Like Adell/Marsh and Detmers just to keep their GM from laughing and hanging up.

Would AZ part with Zac Gallen? Probably not. But they don't have a closer. 

Can't think of any other possible trades, really. Not my job to think outside the box.

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4 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I understand the risk, but I'm not sure Iglesias takes the QO. He's probably looking for a 3 year deal and the older he gets the less likely that is. He turns 32 in January. Plus, it's not like he's only going to get $10 million a year. He's getting at least $15 million. 

If $4 million is going to kill the budget than we're fucked.

another thing to consider is that the halos would probably pay him far less in the first year to afford other stuff because of Upton.  Maybe like 10 or 11m so it could be closer to a 10m difference.  That could be the difference between getting Cobb back or not.  

 

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3 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I don't think there's any closer on the free agent market that makes sense. Maybe Rosenthal since he missed all of 2021.

I'd kill for Josh Hader but that would cost far too much. Edwin Diaz maybe? 

A package deal is probably the best way to go if we're going the trade route. Could try a package deal for Alcantara and Dylan Foro from Miami but that's going to fucking hurt. A lot. Like Adell/Marsh and Detmers just to keep their GM from laughing and hanging up.

Would AZ part with Zac Gallen? Probably not. But they don't have a closer. 

Can't think of any other possible trades, really. Not my job to think outside the box.

The way he was able to obtain Iglesias was actually pretty brilliant where he took advantage of a team wanting to off load some cash due to the pandemic.  That was probably a one time deal that he won't have an opportunity for this year.   Every team with a good starting pitcher they're willing to trade is going to want One of Detmers, Adell, Marsh.  And I think it's gonna be Detmers or at least he's the one that probably makes the most sense.  The Angels actually have some starter depth right now.   They were able to prove that in the second half of the season. 

But Miami doesn't need pitching.  They would want either Adell or Marsh like you said. 
I hope they stay miles away from a guy like Means. 
I'm concerned that Hendricks has turned into a pumpkin.   You just can't have an 87mph fastball forever.  
I don't get the sense that the Rox would ever part with Marquez.  

But you're right.  It really hard to go team by team and find one that has a stud starter and no intention of contending or one that has one and wouldn't want Adell or Marsh in return for him in order to stay competitive.  

Minasian's comments after Joe basically called him out were pretty telling.  My takeaway was that yeah, he wants that too but it's not like going to target and grabbing it off the shelf.  

I have much higher expectations for the bullpen and for MIF depth as things to improve in spades for this off season.   I am fully prepared for the Angels to sign a solid starter from the second tier of guys available on a 3-4 year deal and maybe one more on a 1-2 year deal. 

I am not expecting a legit TOR starter by reputation.  But at some point, the Angels ie Minasian is going to have to pull a rabbit out of his hat in that regard.  Meaning that mid tier guy or that 1yr guy or both actually have to do well.   They're gonna need to get a Gausman from two years ago instead of a Teheran.  Or a Robbie Ray or Anthony Desclafani from a year ago.  Instead of Quintana or Harvey or Cahill.  

And here is where I have my fingers crossed.  Minasian has now had a year to evaluate what he inherited and to make some adjustments or implement his own process for finding guys in the middle who are going to help the team.  Someone who doesn't take an entire 5+ year draft cycle to develop or someone that doesn't cost 25m a year in free agency.  To evaluate guys and think they can get more from them than what they paid and we actually see that happen.  Cobb gives me a bit of hope in that regard.  

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