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OC Register: Angels GM Perry Minasian looks for answers to poor pitching, injuries as he plans for 2022


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37 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

SIGNED: OF Mike Trout ($35.45M), 3B Anthony Rendon ($36M), OF Justin Upton ($28M), RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani ($5.5M), 2B David Fletcher ($4M). TOTAL: $109.95M

According to Cox it's about $2 million more but what is significant is they have 15 Arb1-3 players and 9 guys that are free agents. Those 9 are a lot of holes to fill. Not sure all of those Arb players are the solution. 

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6 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Personally.  I don’t think Franklin Barreto, and Gosselin are great candidates to fill everyday player roles in 2022.  Just my opinion. 

True.  There must be good young glove first shortstops out there for almost no cost.  But Gosselin is good for a backup and Barreto would be fine in that role healthy.  But not starters.

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21 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Personally.  I don’t think Franklin Barreto, and Gosselin are great candidates to fill everyday player roles in 2022.  Just my opinion. 

I can’t imagine anyone thinks they are everyday players going forward.  

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41 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Justin Upton isn’t even that old.  How many guys around baseball are older and still very productive.  That the Angels can’t get anything out of so many guys after they’re like 32 is extremely annoying.  Seems like a big problem if you’re going to bother signing players to extensions. 

Maybe the Marine Layer is like the beach in the latest M. Night Shaymalan movie.

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46 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

SIGNED: OF Mike Trout ($35.45M), 3B Anthony Rendon ($36M), OF Justin Upton ($28M), RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani ($5.5M), 2B David Fletcher ($4M). TOTAL: $109.95M

Cot's and Spotrac both have Trout at 37.117, due to a prorated signing bonus. That's the difference.

Regardless, I look and 109.95 and see around 70M to spend to where they were last season. They ended up at at 187 AAV payroll plus the 15.5 Benefits and 2.25 Minor league Contracts, so they were roughly $5M under the luxury tax cap.
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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5 guys under contract at 109.95 per Fletcher.

I know that Stassi and Mayers will cost roughly $5-6M if the arbitration contracts projected are accurate. That's 7 spots.

I wouldn't bring back Gosselin, Guerra, or Barretto.

I'd resign Iglesias if possible. A legit closer was something this team has lacked since Frankie left in 2009 (except for Huston Street for a stretch and maybe a year of Fuentes and Frieri each). Iglesias is going to cost money. (8th roster spot) Try to pay him 14M for 2022, 16 M for 2023, and 18M for 2024, with a club option for 18M in 2025. This is very similar to the Liam Hendriks contract. AAV here is 16.

I'd pursue a TOR free agent starter and try to pay him around $25M for 2022. I'd then sign a Jon Gray type or possibly bring back Alex Cobb if the money was right. These two would cost around $37M. (9th and 10th roster spots). I'd try for Scherzer, and offer him 4 years. 4/120, 25/30/30/35. Yes I realize his age, but he is still a top pitcher. 4 years I think is a year longer than most will offer, that keeps the AAV down. Gray will cost probably 3/45 or so? 12/15/18. AAV here is 30 and 15.

I'd sign one of the Shortstops to a deal, and try to set the market. Story I think comes the cheapest of the 5, Semien 2nd, then Baez, Seager, and Correa being the top two. I'd offer 7/182 to Story and Semien both. This deal would be structured like 18/25/25/27/27/30/32.  AAV here is 26. (11th roster spot).

I know i have to sign Ohtani in two seasons, but I feel like making the playoffs in the next two years (while paying him probably 5.5 and then 20 in his final year of arbitration) will go further to getting him to sign logn term then throwing a ton of money at him.

I'd also sign a FA reliever to a 3 year 5M average, 3/15 or 4/5/6. This is to make Mayers your 7th inning guy. I'd also maybe resign Cishek if he'd take what he made in 2021. (12th and 13th roster spots).

Then it's all club control guys to round out the roster. Walsh, Adell, Marsh, Ward, Rengifo, Thaiss, Sandoval, Suarez, Canning/Barria, C-Rod if healthy or Ortega if not, Herget, Quijada and Warren. Here you'd guess that Walsh, Sandoval make probably 700K, and Suarez and Ward 675K, Rengifo, Adell, Marsh, and Canning, 625K, and Thaiss, C-Rod/Ortega, Herget, Quijada and Warren 600k so that's roughly 8.25M.

109.95+5+14+37+18+4+1+8.25 is a 197.2M real payroll, with an AAV of 102.5+5+16+45+26+5+1+8.25 +17.75= 226.5 so you'd definitely be in the tax for 2022.

So maybe you find a bargain at reliever and cut that 5M, and try to sign Stassi and Mayers to reasonable multi-year deals, and maybe get a slightly cheaper 2nd FA starter, but even if you are a few million over in terms of the cap for 2022-2024.... you'd be fielding a competitive team.

In 2023, Upton drops off and Ohtani will eat up most of his real payroll and Stassi is your only FA of note. Real payroll is 76.5 for Trout, Rendon, and Fletcher, plus 2nd year salaries for Iglesias (16), Scherzer (30) Gray, (15), Story (25), and your 8th inning reliever (5).

Mayers will get a bump to maybe $3M per, but Ohtani eats up probably 20. So you'd be at 190.5 here real payroll for just 10 guys. Then you'd add Stassi back for $4.5M say? so you'd be at $195.5 for 11 guys, (Cishek and Upton being the departures from 2022) and you'd fill the rest with club control guys: Walsh, Adell, Marsh, Ward, Rengifo, Thaiss, Sandoval, Suarez, Canning, Barria, C-Rod, Ortega, Herget, Quijada, and say a AAA OF or MINF. You'd be probably around 10M for this group. Your AAV numbers don't go crazy, but you're still over the cap. Real Payroll is say $205.5, with an AAV of 76.5+16+45+26+5+3+20+4.5+10+18.25 = 224 or so.

2024 is rough, especially when you bring back Ohtani and you start having arbitration cases for guys like Walsh, Ward, Sandoval, Suarez, and Canning. That will push real payroll to 220 and AAV to like 240.

But in 2025, you'd likely not have Jon Gray, Iglesias (unless you pick up his option) or your other FA reliever above, which knocks off around $35-40M from your 2024 high. This probably gets you under the luxury tax cap, especially with a new CBA and projected higher cap numbers. Adell, Marsh, Ward and a lot of the younger guys will be eligible for arbitration, but hopefully some of their successors have begun to work their way through the system.

In 2026, Rendon, and Scherzer fall off the payroll, and maybe Fletcher as well, and you definitely are under the cap, hopefully, with a staff anchored by Detmers, Bachman, Suarez, Sandoval, and Ohtani, you'll be ok.

So it's probably three years of luxury tax payroll charges, but you're fielding competitive teams.

And you might win a few AL West titles and be in World Series contention the entire time. Houston is going to have to reload and the A's window is closing too without a new ballpark. Seattle is on the rise and may also be big spenders in FA. Texas is a few years away. Now is your opportunity to win.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Revad said:

True.  There must be good young glove first shortstops out there for almost no cost.  But Gosselin is good for a backup and Barreto would be fine in that role healthy.  But not starters.

Barreto can’t ever stay healthy.   Candidate to remove from 40 man?

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On 10/4/2021 at 4:36 PM, AngelsWin.com said:

ANAHEIM — On the first day of the offseason, Perry Minasian said the Angels are about to undergo a thorough review of everything they did in a disappointing 2021, from the way players performed to the way they were coached to the reasons they ended up injured.

The Angels general manager said on Monday it starts with a look in the mirror, though.

Asked if he has been analyzing his own decisions, Minasian said: “Every minute of every day.”

Minasian is less than 11 months into his first run as a major league general manager, and he’s got a 77-85 record to show for it, despite having the likely American League MVP – Shohei Ohtani – on his roster.

Obviously, plenty of other things went wrong, some unforeseeable and some the results of Minasian’s decisions.

“This is my first year doing this, and I am not perfect by any stretch,” Minasian said. “I do not have all the answers. I like listening to other people’s opinions. And I like people’s criticism, to be honest with you. I’m trying to be as good as I can be too.”

The main criticism, of course, is that the Angels didn’t have enough pitching. Their 4.69 ERA ranked 22nd in the majors.

“We understand that the mound is a place where we’d like to significantly improve,” Minasian said. “Not just improve, but significantly improve.”

Minasian said Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval and José Suarez have earned the right to be in the 2022 rotation, but otherwise they are open to who will fill the two or three other holes, as well as the depth spots they’ll need to get through the season.

Manager Joe Maddon – and every Angels fan – has already said the Angels need premium starters.

“Would you like to add frontline starters? Absolutely,” Minasian said. “I’d love to add three, four frontline starters, that would be outstanding. Realistically, that’s really difficult to do.”

How about two?

“Two is difficult too. One is difficult. I think if you asked all 30 teams, every single person in my position would say ‘Yeah, I’d love to find a frontline starter, whether that’s trade or free agency.’ That’s something that’s easier said than done.”

The first question is how much money the Angels will have to spend, and Minasian said he and owner Arte Moreno haven’t yet agreed on the budget. The Angels also don’t yet know what the luxury tax threshold will be because a new collective bargaining agreement is coming in 2022.

In 2021, though, the Angels spent about $180 million on their major league payroll. They currently have five players signed for about $109 million in 2022, with a relatively small arbitration class that is led by catcher Max Stassi and reliever Mike Mayers. All of the Angels’ arbitration-eligible players will likely make less than $10 million total. Figuring another $15 million or so for all the pre-arbitration players, and the Angels could have around $50 million to spend on new players.

The first question they’ll have to address in free agency is whether to extend a qualifying offer to closer Raisel Iglesias, who made just over $9 million in 2021. The deadline for that decision is five days after the World Series. The qualifying offer figure is typically around $19 million. Liam Hendriks, the top closer on last year’s free agent market, signed a three-year contract worth $18 million per year.

Most of the Angels’ money figures to go toward the pitching staff, but they also seemingly need a shortstop. This winter’s free agent shortstop crop is particularly loaded, led by the Dodgers’ Corey Seager, the Houston’s Carlos Correa, the New York Mets’ Javy Baez and Colorado’s Trevor Story. Minasian also suggested they could stick to an internal option at shortstop.

“(Luis) Rengifo played a really solid shortstop in September, which was really encouraging,” Minasian said. “I think (David) Fletcher has the ability to slide over if we wanted him to. As good as he is at second, he’s very confident he could play a high-level shortstop too.”

Minasian said such internal solutions will be critical around the field, and even on the mound, because the Angels need more than a few acquisitions to become contenders.

“We can go out and make a free agent splash with one guy and ‘win the offseason’ to a certain extent, but there needs to be a lot of internal improvement too,” Minasian said.

Which of course also means the players the Angels already have need to stay on the field. The Angels were crushed by injuries in 2021. Three-time AL MVP Mike Trout and third baseman Anthony Rendon were injured for most of the year, but the Angels had dozens of injuries to significant players all season.

Minasian said looking at the causes of those injuries will be “a significant part of the review.”

“We’ll go through each individual injury,” Minasian said. “What was done the past offseason, who they worked with, what they did in-season, time in the weight room, time in the trainer’s room,” Minasian said. “What their recovery was like. What their routine is. It’s going through each individual player. And it’s not only the guys that were hurt, but the guys that were healthy, and why did they stay healthy? Is there some type of adjustment we can make as an organization to keep guys on the field?”

 

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NOTES

Minasian said right-hander Chris Rodriguez is the only one of the players who finished the season on the injured list who is questionable to be ready for spring training. Rodriguez, who had a strained lat, “could be out for an extended period,” Minasian said, adding that there was no specific setback, but “rehab-wise, it just wasn’t feeling great.” …

The Angels have not yet made decisions on the status of the coaches for next season, Minasian. That will be determined during this week’s reviews. …

Minasian said the Angels have been working on changing their policies with regard to their minor leaguers, but they have “nothing to announce today.”

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Mad Max is not signing with Angels. His last contract will want to play for a winner. Dodgers will pay him.

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Just now, Angels 1961 said:

Mad Max is not signing with Angels. His last contract will want to play for a winner. Dodgers will pay him.

Or he signs with another team, like the Angels.  
Sometimes I think people forget that players are confident and cocky and arrogant enough to see themselves as part of what will help a team get over the hump. 

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On 10/11/2021 at 4:02 PM, Taylor said:

That was a fun read. I noticed a certain poster's signature on there:

 

 

On 10/11/2021 at 4:02 PM, Taylor said:

That was a fun read. I noticed a certain poster's signature on there:

 

Im an independent. So Im not sure about the age breakdown here, and am confused if this means I am or am not a republican.

 

But Ive had want of head since I found out what it meant, circa age 12 or so. 

20211012_162301.jpg

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5 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Some people pro-rate Trout’s signing bonus for purposes of his AAV but it was already paid. So it doesn’t count for their actual payroll any more. 

Yeah, I am surprised they both list it under real payroll, not just on AAV. Probably an error in reporting that they both use for their actual payroll numbers.

 

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8 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

Justin Upton isn’t even that old.  How many guys around baseball are older and still very productive.  That the Angels can’t get anything out of so many guys after they’re like 32 is extremely annoying.  Seems like a big problem if you’re going to bother signing players to extensions. 

Makes me wonder how many guys think of signing with the Angels as some sort of high paid retirement community.

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7 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Makes me wonder how many guys think of signing the Angels as some sort of high paid retirement community.

I’ve sort just settled on something that for a long time I just tried to imagine wasn’t the case.  Which is that the organization is just bad.  It’s bad at making players better.  It’s bad at developing players and it’s bad at keeping up with the trends that other organizations use to get better.  I’m not sure if that’s being addressed or not.  None of us can know.  

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5 hours ago, Stradling said:

Or he signs with another team, like the Angels.  
Sometimes I think people forget that players are confident and cocky and arrogant enough to see themselves as part of what will help a team get over the hump. 

Dodgers have the money do not care about lux tax and in playoffs every year. They get the big names year after year. I wish he would sign with halos but odds against them. Many other teams will be involved. Dodgers will lose Bauer plus Kershaw always injury risk. Angels need 2 starters among other things. Spread money around.

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10 hours ago, Hubs said:

5 guys under contract at 109.95 per Fletcher.

I know that Stassi and Mayers will cost roughly $5-6M if the arbitration contracts projected are accurate. That's 7 spots.

I wouldn't bring back Gosselin, Guerra, or Barretto.

I'd resign Iglesias if possible. A legit closer was something this team has lacked since Frankie left in 2009 (except for Huston Street for a stretch and maybe a year of Fuentes and Frieri each). Iglesias is going to cost money. (8th roster spot) Try to pay him 14M for 2022, 16 M for 2023, and 18M for 2024, with a club option for 18M in 2025. This is very similar to the Liam Hendriks contract. AAV here is 16.

I'd pursue a TOR free agent starter and try to pay him around $25M for 2022. I'd then sign a Jon Gray type or possibly bring back Alex Cobb if the money was right. These two would cost around $37M. (9th and 10th roster spots). I'd try for Scherzer, and offer him 4 years. 4/120, 25/30/30/35. Yes I realize his age, but he is still a top pitcher. 4 years I think is a year longer than most will offer, that keeps the AAV down. Gray will cost probably 3/45 or so? 12/15/18. AAV here is 30 and 15.

I'd sign one of the Shortstops to a deal, and try to set the market. Story I think comes the cheapest of the 5, Semien 2nd, then Baez, Seager, and Correa being the top two. I'd offer 7/182 to Story and Semien both. This deal would be structured like 18/25/25/27/27/30/32.  AAV here is 26. (11th roster spot).

I know i have to sign Ohtani in two seasons, but I feel like making the playoffs in the next two years (while paying him probably 5.5 and then 20 in his final year of arbitration) will go further to getting him to sign logn term then throwing a ton of money at him.

I'd also sign a FA reliever to a 3 year 5M average, 3/15 or 4/5/6. This is to make Mayers your 7th inning guy. I'd also maybe resign Cishek if he'd take what he made in 2021. (12th and 13th roster spots).

Then it's all club control guys to round out the roster. Walsh, Adell, Marsh, Ward, Rengifo, Thaiss, Sandoval, Suarez, Canning/Barria, C-Rod if healthy or Ortega if not, Herget, Quijada and Warren. Here you'd guess that Walsh, Sandoval make probably 700K, and Suarez and Ward 675K, Rengifo, Adell, Marsh, and Canning, 625K, and Thaiss, C-Rod/Ortega, Herget, Quijada and Warren 600k so that's roughly 8.25M.

109.95+5+14+37+18+4+1+8.25 is a 197.2M real payroll, with an AAV of 102.5+5+16+45+26+5+1+8.25 +17.75= 226.5 so you'd definitely be in the tax for 2022.

So maybe you find a bargain at reliever and cut that 5M, and try to sign Stassi and Mayers to reasonable multi-year deals, and maybe get a slightly cheaper 2nd FA starter, but even if you are a few million over in terms of the cap for 2022-2024.... you'd be fielding a competitive team.

In 2023, Upton drops off and Ohtani will eat up most of his real payroll and Stassi is your only FA of note. Real payroll is 76.5 for Trout, Rendon, and Fletcher, plus 2nd year salaries for Iglesias (16), Scherzer (30) Gray, (15), Story (25), and your 8th inning reliever (5).

Mayers will get a bump to maybe $3M per, but Ohtani eats up probably 20. So you'd be at 190.5 here real payroll for just 10 guys. Then you'd add Stassi back for $4.5M say? so you'd be at $195.5 for 11 guys, (Cishek and Upton being the departures from 2022) and you'd fill the rest with club control guys: Walsh, Adell, Marsh, Ward, Rengifo, Thaiss, Sandoval, Suarez, Canning, Barria, C-Rod, Ortega, Herget, Quijada, and say a AAA OF or MINF. You'd be probably around 10M for this group. Your AAV numbers don't go crazy, but you're still over the cap. Real Payroll is say $205.5, with an AAV of 76.5+16+45+26+5+3+20+4.5+10+18.25 = 224 or so.

2024 is rough, especially when you bring back Ohtani and you start having arbitration cases for guys like Walsh, Ward, Sandoval, Suarez, and Canning. That will push real payroll to 220 and AAV to like 240.

But in 2025, you'd likely not have Jon Gray, Iglesias (unless you pick up his option) or your other FA reliever above, which knocks off around $35-40M from your 2024 high. This probably gets you under the luxury tax cap, especially with a new CBA and projected higher cap numbers. Adell, Marsh, Ward and a lot of the younger guys will be eligible for arbitration, but hopefully some of their successors have begun to work their way through the system.

In 2026, Rendon, and Scherzer fall off the payroll, and maybe Fletcher as well, and you definitely are under the cap, hopefully, with a staff anchored by Detmers, Bachman, Suarez, Sandoval, and Ohtani, you'll be ok.

So it's probably three years of luxury tax payroll charges, but you're fielding competitive teams.

And you might win a few AL West titles and be in World Series contention the entire time. Houston is going to have to reload and the A's window is closing too without a new ballpark. Seattle is on the rise and may also be big spenders in FA. Texas is a few years away. Now is your opportunity to win.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wow.  Terrific post.

Edited by Revad
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On 10/11/2021 at 3:12 PM, Hubs said:

No to Javy if he's got that low of a career OBP.

I do think one of the five big FA shortstops will end up here, or they will have a reunion with Simmons.

I'd rank them

1. Seager

2. Story

3. Semien

4. Baez

5. The Cheater

 

 

there will be no simmons reunion, you can count on that. that was a bad break up. they won't even make the call.

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