Time to go all-in?

[ten ocho recon scout]

10 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Yeah, you know when things are so crazy, you get your thoughts trapped, like in a bottle.

The night is a very dark time for me

[stormngt]

On 10/4/2021 at 12:20 PM, Torridd said:

I agree and add the futility of past years in not only bad luck, but in not getting the pitching we've needed, and Arte has to feel personal pressure. Despite the downer of this year, we were shown the youth potential of many players. Management needs to go all in and, at minimum, get two solid starters ( I don't mean Cobb) and either  re-sign Iglesias or get an equivalent stopper. They can piddle around with the the rest of the bullpen and patch that up. They have to secure the core pieces. Personally, I don't think shortstop and catcher need to be big additions with the current team we have.  If Arte feels the need to get a big shortstop but doesn't get the pitching, I think he deserves all the abuse he'd get. 

If we do not extend Iglesias than the entire front office should be fired for the gross negligence by not trading him at the deadline.

[Reveille1984]

On 10/4/2021 at 1:14 PM, Jason said:

Halos are not good at developing players 

Seriously.  How are people still expecting guys like Barria, CRod, and Canning to be reliable starters after what we've seen the last couple years, and on top of that expecting our drafting and player evaluation to be as good as Tampa Bay after this many years of mediocrity?  There's no comparison there to be had.

The only way this team is going to substantially improve is by either free agent pitching or trading for pitching (or both).  Same shit every year, fix it!

[Jason]

14 minutes ago, Reveille1984 said:

Seriously.  How are people still expecting guys like Barria, CRod, and Canning to be reliable starters after what we've seen the last couple years, and on top of that expecting our drafting and player evaluation to be as good as Tampa Bay after this many years of mediocrity?  There's no comparison there to be had.

The only way this team is going to substantially improve is by either free agent pitching or trading for pitching (or both).  Same shit every year, fix it!

I don’t know. I honestly think they have to find a way to develop their pitching from within. Free agency usually doesn’t work out well for them.  I do have some faith that some of the pitchers they drafted this year will turn out good. Minasian deserves a chance in this respect. As far as Barria and Canning, they aren’t going to help the rotation. What C-Rod has to offer is still undetermined but he has shown signs that he can pitch at a high level. Too early to make final judgment on him 

[Taylor]

I can already tell this is going to be another long off-season.

[Junkballer]

1 hour ago, stormngt said:

If we do not extend Iglesias than the entire front office should be fired for the gross negligence by not trading him at the deadline.

My guess is that was a joint Arte/PM decision.   I can see Minasian telling Arte that he'd like to trade him and get prospects X,Y&Z but they'll be trying to close out games with Quijada and Meyers the rest of the way.  Arte sees the possibility of having the 3rd worst record in the AL and vetos.  Pure speculation of course but I think its a good guess that Arte had some input in the decision.  Its just not the kind of decision I think Minasian would make unless it was not approved by the owner or he already intended to give him a QO at the end of the season.

[Biergott]

Best case:  angels go all in and exceed the threshold and go for the win over the next 3 years

Best worst case:  arte exceeds the threshold this year to make his two stars happy, gets the Ohtani extension, we hit the playoffs, but once he gets the extension of his international marketing piece he goes back below the threshold 

I don’t see them not going in this year.  Money off the books, Ohtani’s historic season and marketing stock through the roof, Trout Ohtani and Maddon all saying we need pitching and they want to win (with some not so veiled threats)  gotta spend money to make money, business wise it makes sense to spend.  With all of the Free Free Agents we have returning for the IL, plus some spending we could very easily be in contention with many combinations of moves.

finally feel hopeful and positive after these past few tough years

retrying to be optimistic 

[HanfordGuy]

Arts should open the wallet and go over the Competitive Balance Tax to get a #1 starter and a shortstop.

[Taylor]

24 minutes ago, HanfordGuy said:

Arts should open the wallet and go over the Competitive Balance Tax to get a #1 starter and a shortstop.

There's a better chance of Biden forgiving all student loan debt.

[jsnpritchett]

27 minutes ago, HanfordGuy said:

Arts should open the wallet and go over the Competitive Balance Tax to get a #1 starter and a shortstop.

And then what do you do with Ohtani? 

[jsnpritchett]

In all likelihood, it'll be something like re-signing Cobb, maybe getting DeSclafani (and either Cobb or DeSclafani will end up pulling a 2021 Bundy...), re-signing Iglesias, signing a low-cost backup catcher, a couple of marginal upgrades in the bullpen, and going with Rengifo at SS. There will be more rumors about an Ohtani extension, but nothing happens on it this off-season. 

If anything above and beyond that happens, I will be pleasantly surprised. 

[HanfordGuy]

14 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

And then what do you do with Ohtani? 

He”s still under control for the next 2 years. The CBT should be raised in the next CBA. Extend his contract before “23. In my opinion since Ohtani is doing double duty, the Angels should have another pitcher that can handle Game 1, 4 and 7 of a playoff series.

[Hubs]

17 hours ago, HanfordGuy said:

He”s still under control for the next 2 years. The CBT should be raised in the next CBA. Extend his contract before “23. In my opinion since Ohtani is doing double duty, the Angels should have another pitcher that can handle Game 1, 4 and 7 of a playoff series.

I'd absolutely start discussions with Ohtani this offseason, but by no means do they have to do anything. He'd probably have been in the range of a $15-18M payday in Arb, and he's gonna be paid $5.5. And he has an arb season at $20 ish in 2023 before FA. And you can slap the qualifying offer on him.

I would give Iglesias the QO. Especially if you can't sign him before the QO deadline.

I'd sign two starters and maybe trade for one too.

I'd sign a SS.

They have 111.188 M in multi-year deals, for five guys, which translates to AAV Payroll around 100.

Their arb class is small, with only three guys likely coming back which may total 7-8M. I do not believe Rengifo, Canning, or Barria will be arbitration eligible but may have if they had been full time guys in 2021.

They have at least a lot of guys under club control, of which I can see a realistic path to the opening day roster for 16 of them, or as few as 9, but that would be Walsh, Adell, Marsh, Sandoval, Suarez, C-Rod, Rengifo, Quijada and Warren. Barria, Naughton, Canning, are also options for the rotation, Selman, Wantz, Hoyt, Herget, Bard, all options for the pen, and Mayfield, Ward, Thaiss, are options for the position player side.

 

 

[Hubs]

Just now, Hubs said:

I'd absolutely start discussions with Ohtani this offseason, but by no means do they have to do anything. He'd probably have been in the range of a $15-18M payday in Arb, and he's gonna be paid $5.5. And he has an arb season at $20 ish in 2023 before FA. And you can slap the qualifying offer on him.

I would give Iglesias the QO. Especially if you can't sign him before the QO deadline.

I'd sign two starters and maybe trade for one too.

I'd sign a SS.

They have 111.188 M in multi-year deals, for five guys, which translates to AAV Payroll around 100.

Their arb class is small, with only three guys likely coming back which may total 7-8M. I do not believe Rengifo, Canning, or Barria will be arbitration eligible but may have if they had been full time guys in 2021.

They have at least a lot of guys under club control, of which I can see a realistic path to the opening day roster for 16 of them, or as few as 9, but that would be Walsh, Adell, Marsh, Sandoval, Suarez, C-Rod, Rengifo, Quijada and Warren. Barria, Naughton, Canning, are also options for the rotation, Selman, Wantz, Hoyt, Herget, Bard, all options for the pen, and Mayfield, Ward, Thaiss, are options for the position player side.

 

 

So if real payroll exceeds last years total, I could see them spending 80-90M. They were at 180-187 or so in real payroll last year.

 

[jsnpritchett]

5 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I'd absolutely start discussions with Ohtani this offseason, but by no means do they have to do anything. He'd probably have been in the range of a $15-18M payday in Arb, and he's gonna be paid $5.5. And he has an arb season at $20 ish in 2023 before FA. And you can slap the qualifying offer on him.

I would give Iglesias the QO. Especially if you can't sign him before the QO deadline.

I'd sign two starters and maybe trade for one too.

I'd sign a SS.

They have 111.188 M in multi-year deals, for five guys, which translates to AAV Payroll around 100.

Their arb class is small, with only three guys likely coming back which may total 7-8M. I do not believe Rengifo, Canning, or Barria will be arbitration eligible but may have if they had been full time guys in 2021.

They have at least a lot of guys under club control, of which I can see a realistic path to the opening day roster for 16 of them, or as few as 9, but that would be Walsh, Adell, Marsh, Sandoval, Suarez, C-Rod, Rengifo, Quijada and Warren. Barria, Naughton, Canning, are also options for the rotation, Selman, Wantz, Hoyt, Herget, Bard, all options for the pen, and Mayfield, Ward, Thaiss, are options for the position player side.

 

 

That's $111M to start with.  Add the $7-8M in arb, and let's say we're at $118M for a total of 8 players.

If they sign Iglesias to an extension, figure a minimum of $15M for next year.  Running total now at $133M.  (If they give him a QO and he takes it, then bump that up by ~$4M.)

If they re-sign Cobb, figure, what, $10M minimum for next year?  Running total now at $143M for a total of 10 players.

If they sign another starting pitcher of roughly Cobb's range or better, then that's another $10M for next year (and obviously $30M+ if we're talking Scherzer-level).  Now up to $153M for 11 players.

If they sign any of the major FA SS, we're looking at a minimum of $20M for them for next year (likely much more).  But let's say it's Semien and the Angels somehow get a nice deal at $20M for next year.  Now we're up to $173M for 12 players.

Angels would still need to round out the bullpen, get another C (maybe it's Thaiss/Ward, but I don't know), and then fill out the roster with minimum salary guys, plus give salary increases to the Walsh types. 

Cutting it very, very close. 

 

[Hubs]

16 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

That's $111M to start with.  Add the $7-8M in arb, and let's say we're at $118M for a total of 8 players.

If they sign Iglesias to an extension, figure a minimum of $15M for next year.  Running total now at $133M.  (If they give him a QO and he takes it, then bump that up by ~$4M.)

If they re-sign Cobb, figure, what, $10M minimum for next year?  Running total now at $143M for a total of 10 players.

If they sign another starting pitcher of roughly Cobb's range or better, then that's another $10M for next year (and obviously $30M+ if we're talking Scherzer-level).  Now up to $153M for 11 players.

If they sign any of the major FA SS, we're looking at a minimum of $20M for them for next year (likely much more).  But let's say it's Semien and the Angels somehow get a nice deal at $20M for next year.  Now we're up to $173M for 12 players.

Angels would still need to round out the bullpen, get another C (maybe it's Thaiss/Ward, but I don't know), and then fill out the roster with minimum salary guys, plus give salary increases to the Walsh types. 

Cutting it very, very close. 

 

Yeah, I agree.

111 (5 Multi Year Guys) +7 (Arb)+12 (Iglesias) + 12 (Gray),+ 10 (Cobb), +30 (Scherzer/Stroman) + 28 (Semien/Story/Seager) +6 (CC Guys) = 216 so that would be over the budget for last years.

But AAV of the 111 is actually 100 or so. Arb would be the same. Iglesias would be higher (probably closer to 14-15 as you say). Gray would be higher, Maybe 4/60 or 15. Cobb would be a one or two year deal. Scherzer would be higher. Semien would be higher.

Definitely over the tax, but with Cobb being a one year deal, and Upton knocking off in 2023, perhaps it's doable.

[WicketMaiden]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Yeah, I agree.

111 (5 Multi Year Guys) +7 (Arb)+12 (Iglesias) + 12 (Gray),+ 10 (Cobb), +30 (Scherzer/Stroman) + 28 (Semien/Story/Seager) +6 (CC Guys) = 216 so that would be over the budget for last years.

But AAV of the 111 is actually 100 or so. Arb would be the same. Iglesias would be higher (probably closer to 14-15 as you say). Gray would be higher, Maybe 4/60 or 15. Cobb would be a one or two year deal. Scherzer would be higher. Semien would be higher.

Definitely over the tax, but with Cobb being a one year deal, and Upton knocking off in 2023, perhaps it's doable.

One way to approach it would be to do all of the above and either trade for SS and drop the Semien type deal, or trade for the TOR pitcher and don't get Scherzer/Stroman. Under budget and all holes filled. (Gross.) 

[Angelsjunky]

On 10/5/2021 at 6:18 PM, ten ocho recon scout said:

The night is a very dark time for me

And full of terrors?

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

I would almost be happy if they pulled a Miami Marlins and bumped it to 75-80M and if it didn't workout trade all of them at the Trade deadline... Including Rendon and J-UP. shed cash and write it all off on the books....

Scherzer, Syndergaard and/or Stroman, Correa, Iglesias a couple set-up men, Cobb and a catcher in a trade! 

 

Not my Dinero~

 

Commitment to Mediocrity! I feel like a Raiders Fan~

[stormngt]

On 10/5/2021 at 4:52 PM, Junkballer said:

My guess is that was a joint Arte/PM decision.   I can see Minasian telling Arte that he'd like to trade him and get prospects X,Y&Z but they'll be trying to close out games with Quijada and Meyers the rest of the way.  Arte sees the possibility of having the 3rd worst record in the AL and vetos.  Pure speculation of course but I think its a good guess that Arte had some input in the decision.  Its just not the kind of decision I think Minasian would make unless it was not approved by the owner or he already intended to give him a QO at the end of the season.

I never blindly accept the "blame Arte narrative ".  In some cases it may have merit but usually does not.  Minasian is the GM.  He gets the blame.  There was no logical reason why Arte would block Iglesias from getting traded.  It didn't make him more money and we were out of the race.

[Hubs]

16 hours ago, WicketMaiden said:

One way to approach it would be to do all of the above and either trade for SS and drop the Semien type deal, or trade for the TOR pitcher and don't get Scherzer/Stroman. Under budget and all holes filled. (Gross.) 

Yeah, I'd do Gray+Stroman+Semien/Seager/Story and resign Iglesias. Trade for another starter. That would be probably 12+28+35+15=80 M for 4 players.

[Junkballer]

On 10/5/2021 at 10:04 PM, jsnpritchett said:

In all likelihood, it'll be something like re-signing Cobb, maybe getting DeSclafani (and either Cobb or DeSclafani will end up pulling a 2021 Bundy...), re-signing Iglesias, signing a low-cost backup catcher, a couple of marginal upgrades in the bullpen, and going with Rengifo at SS. There will be more rumors about an Ohtani extension, but nothing happens on it this off-season. 

If anything above and beyond that happens, I will be pleasantly surprised. 

I see something similar too with perhaps a trade for the SS.  Minasian has had a year to figure out where the bottlenecks are in the prospect matrix and will be dealing for a SS or possibly a mid tier SP.  I think anyone hoping for the Scherzer or Stroman tier will be disappointed.

[gotbeer]

All in for the Angels.  Angels trade for Bauer for a bucket of balls, with the Dogs paying all his signing bonus money and 75% of his salary.  

[HeavenlyHalos]

On 10/4/2021 at 3:20 PM, WicketMaiden said:

That clip is from one of my all-time favourite comedy series: Peep Show. Highly recommend it to anyone that hasn't seen it.

Yuuuup, one of my top 5 comedy series. Ive introduced it to a number of people who also think very highly of it.

[ten ocho recon scout]

On 10/7/2021 at 3:16 PM, gotbeer said:

All in for the Angels.  Angels trade for Bauer for a bucket of balls, with the Dogs paying all his signing bonus money and 75% of his salary.  

Im not suggesting we do that. But out of curiosity, could a team do that? I assume so. Hes suspended by the dodgers, not mlb right? And the dodgers are on the hook for his salary. 

I guess it just comes down to if the dodgers actually release him or not