Early Guide to Hot Stove: A look at the 25-Man Roster and team needs

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

Again Danish gets snubbed.

I put him in AAA. I suppose he's got an outside chance of starting the year in the bullpen, but I think it more likely they go with someone who they've seen this year.

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

This all sounds a lot like another 78 win season.

I think that's about a 88ish win team with health.  Gonna take the younger guys exceeding expectations to get better than that.  And I don't think Perry is gonna be allowed to hope for that.  And I don't think Arte is gonna increase payroll.  I wouldn't if I were him in the way suggested.  If he were going to, I would be for an expensive older pitcher for a two year max type deal.  

What I think is going to happen is that Maddon will get his way and the org will lose patience with letting the young guys come into their own.  And like I said, I think a couple of Marsh, Adell, Detmers or Rodriguez will get traded.  We'll get a couple years of club control for a really good pitcher.  

[stormngt]

12 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

We've been doing some of this for most of the season, but I thought I'd scan through the team and update where we are, in terms of what pieces are in place for next year, and what holes need to be filled (gross).

Bold players are virtual locks for the 25-man roster (assuming they aren't released or traded), and regular are candidates.

2022 25-Man Roster (Locks and in-house Candidates)

C Stassi, Thaiss

1B Walsh

2B Fletcher

SS Rengifo, Mayfield

3B Rendon

UT/MI Stefanic, Rojas, Wong, Davis, Barreto

OF Trout, Upton, Marsh, Adell, Ward

SP Ohtani, Sandoval, Suarez, Detmers, Rodriguez, Canning, Barria

RP Mayers, Warren, Ortega, Quijada, Wantz, Selman, Tyler, Herget, Diaz, Junk, Naughton, Barria, etc

The following players could be considered depth for the major leagues next year:

AA/AAA:

IF Davis, Stefanic, Barreto, MacKinnon

OF Lund, Martinez, Ward

P Canning, Daniels, Diaz, Criswell, Tyler, Detmers/Rodriguez, Junk, Naughton, Peguero, Bachman, Bush, Danish, Higgins, Linginfelter, Smith, Marte, Reyes, Molina, Silseth, Pina, etc.

As you can see, only about 13 players can be considered "locks" for the major league roster, and I may be precipitous on Warren. Some of the candidates are probably likely; for instance, I imagine that two of the SP candidates will end up on the major league roster, but the point is that the above gives us a sense of areas in need of decisions and/or improvement.

A note on the outfield: As I've said before, the Angels don't need to--and probably won't, unless they can get rid of Upton--go with the traditional three starters, one fourth outfielder, but rather a rotation of four semi-regulars or more. Trout is pencilled in for full-time, but whether or not he can start 140 games remains to be seen. Even if he does, that leaves 346 starts in the OF, or an average of about 115 each for the remaining three. I think it comes down to who performs (and if Trout and Upton are healthy). But regardless, the Angels are set in the outfield, with AAA probably being Orlando Martinez, Brennon Lund, and either Ward if he has options, or a journeyman.

From the above, I think the Angels needs are:

1-2 starting pitchers. This is the big question. If Maddon gets his way, it will likely be two. Premier and expensive options ($20M+) include Gausman, Scherzer, Kershaw, Syndergaard, Rodon, and Ray. Moderate options (~$15M) include Stroman, DeScaflani, Verlander, Greinke, Gray, Kluber, Paxton, Teheran, and one or two others. Budget options ($12M or less) include Cobb, Smyly, Heaney, Davies, Duffy, Fiers, etc.

Some of those players might go for more or less, depending on years. For instance, I could see someone signing Verlander or Greinke for 1/$20M+.

I would guess that the Angels target one of the expensive options, default on a moderate one, and then re-sign Cobb, who could be a bargain if healthy. Two budget options would be the Eppler approach, but I just don't think will happen. 

2-3 relievers. Another big question. The Angels have auditioned a ton of young guys, with none standing out as locks, although some showing glimmers of promise. How many relievers they acquire via free agency or trades depends upon how many dice-rolls they want to make with in-house pitchers, most of whom are experienced. They could go with one or more of Barria, Junk, and Naughton as swingmen/middle relievers, and put Chris Rodriguez back in the bullpen. They could continue the auditioning in Spring Training and even into April and May, but they'll want some solidity to start ith. At the least, they probably need to acquire at least one elite reliever/closer--be it re-signing Raisel Iglesias or going after Kenley Jansen, or a more budget/risky option like Rosenthal or Yates--and one or two veteran relievers.

Regardless, I would be surprised if we didn't start next year with at least two new names in the bullpen, if not three. 

A middle infielder. They have five candidates and with Fletcher, could take a budget approach and rotate through them until someone sticks. But it is also possible that they go after a starting SS, and fill in UT with the candidates.

While Rengifo's numbers still aren't great, consider that he's hit a more acceptable .269/.314/.423 since Sept 5, which is closer to what his potential is--maybe better (more walks). Stefanic is the darkhorse candidate, and Davis the "sexy pick." Regardless, this is one area where the Angels could go for an in-house budget route, considering the number of options and strength of the rest of the lineup.

If they spend $30-40M on starting pitching and $15-20 on relief, they won't really have anything left for anything more than a journeyman middle infielder. On the other hand, knowing Arte and Maddon, there's a creeping fear that they go after Javier "Can't Take a Walk" Baez, who at least hits homers and is a good defender, but that would likely mean they're only going after one moderate starter and risking it--again--with the bullpen.

A catcher. It depends upon how much they trust Thaiss' defense. Chances are they'd go after a cheap defense-first Maldonado type, although there aren't many free agent options (Chirinos? Romine?), or just go with Thaiss and minor league journeymen like Bemboom as depth.

1.  I do not think Ward has any options

2. I know Barretto doesn't. 

3. Ceshek will be in the bullpen.....unless he is in a contract year.

4.  Why isn't Marte an option in the bullpen?  I thought he looked good in his few opportunities.?

5. Barria has a 4.03 carrier ERA as a starter.  7.65 as a reliever.  2021 ERA as a starter was 3.98 and over 10 as a reliever. If we do not want him as a starter than we need to trade him.  Keep him out if the bullpen!

6.  Extend of QO Iglesias 

7.  Extend Cobb

8. Sign best FA available. OR trade for frontline starter.

9.  Use players like Ward, Barria, Rojas as possible trade bait to improve bullpen options.

10.  Tell Upton that he is going to be a 4th outfielder.   Therefore we would understand if he wants to waive his no trade clause 

[Docwaukee]

Ward has options.  

[Jeff Fletcher]

20 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Moderate options (~$15M) include Stroman, DeScaflani, Verlander, Greinke, Gray, Kluber, Paxton, Teheran, and one or two others.

Really? Also, Stroman needs to go in the top group. I bet he gets the biggest contract of any FA starter.

[Stradling]

14 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Really? Also, Stroman needs to go in the top group. I bet he gets the biggest contract of any FA starter.

Wow.  I would have assumed it would go Ray, Gausman, Stroman.  That is based on them all being around the same age and the rest is simply my perception and not based on stats.  

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Really? Also, Stroman needs to go in the top group. I bet he gets the biggest contract of any FA starter.

Fair enough, although Stroman is very good but not great. I think Scherzer, Gausman, Kershaw and Ray all get higher AAVs, maybe Rodon. Syndegaard is anyone's guess. 

Teheran was a mistake - I was actually thinking of Taijuan Walker, but he's not even a free agent, and cooled off after a good start. My error. Teheran is bargain bin at best.

I deleted Teheran and moved Stroman up.

Edited October 3, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[totdprods]

@Stradling, @Angelsjunky

I posted this a couple weeks back on another thread. It hasn't changed much...

Virtually guaranteed 40-man locks (14 players):

• Position Players (8): Stassi, Walsh, Fletcher, Rendon, Upton, Trout, Adell, Marsh
• Pitchers (6): Ohtani, Sandoval, Suarez, Canning, Detmers, Rodriguez, Mayers

Likely to stick (19 players):

• Position Players (6): Gosselin, Mayfield, Rengifo, Ward, Thaiss, Rojas
• Pitchers (13): Barria, Marte, Warren, Wantz, Naughton, Junk, Quijada, Herget, Ortega, Tyler, Criswell, Peguero, Yan

On the fringe (8): 

• Position Players (3): Wong, Barreto, Wallach
• Pitchers (5): Selman, Bard, Hoyt, Ramos, Diaz

That's already a full 40-man (+1) right there, before any additions, re-signings, or R5 protections.

Definitely coming off - but could be re-signed (8):

• Position Players (3): Suzuki, Lagares, Fowler
• Pitchers (5): Iglesias, Cishek, Guerra, Cobb, Bundy

Rule 5 eligible who could be added (tried to list in order of likelihood):

• Position Players: Stefanic, Davis, Knowles, Martinez, Soto, MacKinnon, Aviles, Lund, Deveaux, Wilson
• Pitchers: Pina, Hernandez, Higgins, Brady, Molina, Salvador, Swanda, Franco, Aquino

They could let all 8 fringe players go and I don't think anyone would think twice. Diaz could stick, but I feel he only made it to the bigs because of the COVID/injury crisis necessitating. Peguero and Criswell fall into here too, but I think Peguero's ceiling gives him a better chance of sticking, as does Criswell's spot-starter ability with options. Diaz has that too, and is a lefty, but still feels a little fringier to me. 

I think at most they add Stefanic and an arm or two from the R5 group, Pina, maybe Higgins. Maybe Davis. Maybe an outfielder or MacKinnon if Perry has some designs to cut into the Ward/Rojas/Thaiss group as trade bait.

I still maintain that a good gamble would be turning 2-4 of the recently added young arms (in the likely to stick group, or from minors) into 1-2 MLB arms that are relatively proven, primarily because I don't really think the ceiling is particularly high on most of the guys brought up in recent weeks. At least nothing that couldn't be replaced via waiver claims or internally.

[Revad]

7 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Fair enough, although Stroman is very good but not great. I think Scherzer, Gausman, Kershaw and Ray all get higher AAVs. 

Teheran was a mistake - I was actually thinking of Taijuan Walker, but he's not even a free agent, and cooled off after a good start. My error. Teheran is bargain bin at best.

During the hot stove I like the crowdsourcing about salaries (Fangraphs I think) and of course we’ll see in the end.  I certainly enjoyed the original post, so thanks.

[Angelsjunky]

6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

@Stradling, @Angelsjunky

I posted this a couple weeks back on another thread. It hasn't changed much...

Virtually guaranteed 40-man locks (14 players):

• Position Players (8): Stassi, Walsh, Fletcher, Rendon, Upton, Trout, Adell, Marsh
• Pitchers (6): Ohtani, Sandoval, Suarez, Canning, Detmers, Rodriguez, Mayers

Likely to stick (19 players):

• Position Players (6): Gosselin, Mayfield, Rengifo, Ward, Thaiss, Rojas
• Pitchers (13): Barria, Marte, Warren, Wantz, Naughton, Junk, Quijada, Herget, Ortega, Tyler, Criswell, Peguero, Yan

On the fringe (8): 

• Position Players (3): Wong, Barreto, Wallach
• Pitchers (5): Selman, Bard, Hoyt, Ramos, Diaz

That's already a full 40-man (+1) right there, before any additions, re-signings, or R5 protections.

Definitely coming off - but could be re-signed (8):

• Position Players (3): Suzuki, Lagares, Fowler
• Pitchers (5): Iglesias, Cishek, Guerra, Cobb, Bundy

Rule 5 eligible who could be added (tried to list in order of likelihood):

• Position Players: Stefanic, Davis, Knowles, Martinez, Soto, MacKinnon, Aviles, Lund, Deveaux, Wilson
• Pitchers: Pina, Hernandez, Higgins, Brady, Molina, Salvador, Swanda, Franco, Aquino

They could let all 8 fringe players go and I don't think anyone would think twice. Diaz could stick, but I feel he only made it to the bigs because of the COVID/injury crisis necessitating. Peguero and Criswell fall into here too, but I think Peguero's ceiling gives him a better chance of sticking, as does Criswell's spot-starter ability with options. Diaz has that too, and is a lefty, but still feels a little fringier to me. 

I think at most they add Stefanic and an arm or two from the R5 group, Pina, maybe Higgins. Maybe Davis. Maybe an outfielder or MacKinnon if Perry has some designs to cut into the Ward/Rojas/Thaiss group as trade bait.

I still maintain that a good gamble would be turning 2-4 of the recently added young arms (in the likely to stick group, or from minors) into 1-2 MLB arms that are relatively proven, primarily because I don't really think the ceiling is particularly high on most of the guys brought up in recent weeks. At least nothing that couldn't be replaced via waiver claims or internally.

Thanks. I don't know why they would protect guys like Herget, Gosselin or Rojas over Stefanic or Davis, either of whom someone might roll the dice on. I wouldn't be worried about lower level guys like Knowles, Franco or Deveaux. Pina...maybe.

 

[totdprods]

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Thanks. I don't know why they would protect guys like Herget, Gosselin or Rojas over Stefanic or Davis, either of whom someone might roll the dice on. I wouldn't be worried about lower level guys like Knowles, Franco or Deveaux. Pina...maybe.

Rojas is really the most redundant and expendable...but he also looked a lot better after he got his first 100-120 PA out of the way. If someone like Walsh was to go down with an injury long-term, he's probably our next best bet. Gosselin has plenty of utility too, I'd like to have them keep him. Thaiss moving full-time to catcher alleviates things too. Wong and Barreto are easy to cut. I think if the team really intends to go after external SS help will determine if Stefanic and/or Davis are added. If they are, I think that tells us right there. Personally I am in support of Rengifo/Mayfield as SS/UT IF next year, and all the money (more or less) going to pitching. I like Herget too, and he has options. I wouldn't necessarily give him an opening day spot, but he'd be good to have in the AAA stable. 

Knowles, Soto, Franco, Deveaux....I really don't expect them to be added, but there's also a chance if they feel one particular tool - speed, versatility, defense, a wipe-out slider - is worth protecting they might, even if it's a year or two early (see Hector Yan), so I sort of always allocate one spot in my mind for a surprising addition. Remember, it could be less about utility to the MLB club, and more about protecting a player from being drafted, and it's fairly easy for a team like Pittsburgh or Detroit to claim Knowles, use him as a 4th OF due to speed and defense, and get a freebie prospect who could have big potential still.

Edited October 3, 2021 by totdprods

[Angelsjunky]

11 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Rojas is really the most redundant and expendable...but he also looked a lot better after he got his first 100-120 PA out of the way. If someone like Walsh was to go down with an injury long-term, he's probably our next best bet. Gosselin has plenty of utility too, I'd like to have them keep him. Thaiss moving full-time to catcher alleviates things too. Wong and Barreto are easy to cut. I think if the team really intends to go after external SS help will determine if Stefanic and/or Davis are added. If they are, I think that tells us right there. Personally I am in support of Rengifo/Mayfield as SS/UT IF next year, and all the money (more or less) going to pitching. I like Herget too, and he has options. I wouldn't necessarily give him an opening day spot, but he'd be good to have in the AAA stable. 

Knowles, Soto, Franco, Deveaux....I really don't expect them to be added, but there's also a chance if they feel one particular tool - speed, versatility, defense, a wipe-out slider - is worth protecting they might, even if it's a year or two early (see Hector Yan), so I sort of always allocate one spot in my mind for a surprising addition. Remember, it could be less about utility to the MLB club, and more about protecting a player from being drafted, and it's fairly easy for a team like Pittsburgh or Detroit to claim Knowles, use him as a 4th OF due to speed and defense, and get a freebie prospect who could have big potential still.

They don't need Rojas with Ward and Thaiss, either of whom could fill in for Walsh, if need be.

For some reason I want to give Barreto more of a chance, starting in AAA. Wong can go, though.

Herget...maybe. Gosselin has utility, but so do plenty of other similar journeymen guys. 

I just don't see why the Angels would protect those guys over Stefanic and Davis. I mean, if only to keep Chuck from having an aneurysm as Davis hits 25 HR for the Mariners next year.

[Vlad27Trout27]

 

Spend! Spend! Spend!

[jsnpritchett]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Wow.  I would have assumed it would go Ray, Gausman, Stroman.  That is based on them all being around the same age and the rest is simply my perception and not based on stats.  

I think you're more correct than Jeff.  I would be very surprised if Stroman got a bigger contract.

[Angel Oracle]

Stroman - 4 years/$80million

One GOOD late innings guy - 2 years/$20 million

Re-sign Iglesias - 3 years/$50 million

Re-sign Cobb - 2 years/$16 million

Gamble on in house SS.

That’s around $50 million/season net payroll added.

Ohtani, Stroman, Sandoval, Cobb, Suarez, Barria/Detmers/Junk/etc.

Iglesias, FA, CRod, Mayers, Warren, Quijada (just cutting the BBs down), Cishek (see Quijada), and Marte/Wantz/Junk/Tyler

With Bachman possibly 1/2 a season away

With the right moves, increased depth emerging, AND NO MORE OBSCENE NUMBER OF INJURIES, at least WC contention

Edited October 3, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[Angel Oracle]

55 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Thanks. I don't know why they would protect guys like Herget, Gosselin or Rojas over Stefanic or Davis, either of whom someone might roll the dice on. I wouldn't be worried about lower level guys like Knowles, Franco or Deveaux. Pina...maybe.

 

This

Except Davis before Stefanic

[totdprods]

24 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

They don't need Rojas with Ward and Thaiss, either of whom could fill in for Walsh, if need be.

For some reason I want to give Barreto more of a chance, starting in AAA. Wong can go, though.

Herget...maybe. Gosselin has utility, but so do plenty of other similar journeymen guys. 

I just don't see why the Angels would protect those guys over Stefanic and Davis. I mean, if only to keep Chuck from having an aneurysm as Davis hits 25 HR for the Mariners next year.

Barreto seems a prime candidate to be DFA'ed off the 40-man, and then re-signed to a minor league deal. I doubt any team is going to be enamored enough to claim him after the time he's missed.

Herget is interchangeable. He has performed well enough and has options, so I could see him staying, but he's dime a dozen, so I can see him getting cut just as easily.

I can see how Mayfield and Gosselin could be redundant too, and really only need one of them. It's less that I want him, more than I feel Maddon likes him enough to fight for him. He was Zobrist-lite and played that role better than anyone else Maddon tried similarly. I think he's been overexposed as the season went on, but he did have some good moments when the pressure was on and against lefties for a good while, something we'd struggled with. 

I truly feel the Angels could do something like package up Rojas, Barria, and one or two of those aforementioned 40-man young arms (Higgins, Hernandez, Yan, Tyler) in a couple deals to budget-conscious teams and come away with a couple solid, controllable MLB relievers (Thielbar, an arm from the Orioles, Royals, Marlins, or Rangers), or maybe in a salary dump for a more expensive reliever like Will Smith (would require a better prospect).

[greginpsca]

25 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Stroman - 4 years/$80million

One GOOD late innings guy - 2 years/$20 million

Re-sign Iglesias - 3 years/$50 million

Re-sign Cobb - 2 years/$16 million

Gamble on in house SS.

That’s around $50 million/season net payroll added.

Ohtani, Stroman, Sandoval, Cobb, Suarez, Barria/Detmers/Junk/etc.

Iglesias, FA, CRod, Mayers, Warren, Quijada (just cutting the BBs down), Cishek (see Quijada), and Marte/Wantz/Junk/Tyler

With Bachman possibly 1/2 a season away

With the right moves, increased depth emerging, AND NO MORE OBSCENE NUMBER OF INJURIES, at least WC contention

$55m

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, greginpsca said:

$55m

Iglesias net increase/year - $9 million

Cobb net increase/year - $5 million

Stroman - $20 million

GOOD late innings guy - $10 million

Actually $44 million

[jsnpritchett]

9 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Iglesias net increase/year - $9 million

Cobb net increase/year - $5 million

Stroman - $20 million

GOOD late innings guy - $10 million

Actually $44 million

Angels aren't paying all of Iglesias' or Cobb's salaries this year, so their net increase assuming they sign the deals you're suggesting would be larger.

[Blarg]

Stroman isn't going for $20 million a year. That's 2010 numbers for top of the rotation pitchers.

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Blarg said:

Stroman isn't going for $20 million a year. That's 2010 numbers for top of the rotation pitchers.

Well, it is ten years later and he's a #2, so $20M doesn't seem that outrageous. But I do expect him to get more like Wheeler money (5/$110M), even if he isn't as good as Wheeler.

[Jeff Fletcher]

7 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

I think you're more correct than Jeff.  I would be very surprised if Stroman got a bigger contract.

Scherzer is gonna get a higher AAV but Stroman is best combination of age, performance and durability to get the largest total deal. 

[beatlesrule]

What's the Angels record with a healthy Trout and Rendon all year? Probably 10 more wins or so correct? Still not enough to make the playoffs. It's all conjecture of course but I don't see how this team could have made the playoffs even if those 2 didn't go down. Bottom line is they had injuries and bad pitching/defense. Somehow, the Angels brass needs to get guys to stay healthy and actually sign or trade for good players. Not their strong suit at all. The likely staying core has been discussed but there is potential for a lot of new faces next year. Arte is still in charge so that doesn't give me too much hope.

[Stax]

For the Angels to make the play offs, Trout, Rendon, and Walsh  need to maintain what they did in the past and a couple of other guys have career years. This also applies to the pitching too. They also need to stay healthy.