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Early Guide to Hot Stove: A look at the 25-Man Roster and team needs


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Chuckster70
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MLB-Network-Hot-Stove.jpeg

We've been doing some of this for most of the season, but I thought I'd scan through the team and update where we are, in terms of what pieces are in place for next year, and what holes need to be filled (gross).

Bold players are virtual locks for the 25-man roster (assuming they aren't released or traded), and regular are candidates.

2022 25-Man Roster (Locks and in-house Candidates)

C Stassi, Thaiss

1B Walsh

2B Fletcher

SS Rengifo, Mayfield

3B Rendon

UT/MI Stefanic, Rojas, Wong, Davis, Barreto

OF Trout, Upton, Marsh, Adell, Ward

SP Ohtani, Sandoval, Suarez, Detmers, Rodriguez, Canning, Barria

RP Mayers, Warren, Ortega, Quijada, Wantz, Selman, Tyler, Herget, Diaz, Junk, Naughton, Barria, etc

The following players could be considered depth for the major leagues next year:

AA/AAA:

IF Davis, Stefanic, Barreto, MacKinnon

OF Lund, Martinez, Ward

Canning, Daniels, Diaz, Criswell, Tyler, Detmers/Rodriguez, Junk, Naughton, Peguero, Bachman, Bush, Danish, Higgins, Linginfelter, Smith, Marte, Reyes, Molina, Silseth, Pina, etc.

As you can see, only about 13 players can be considered "locks" for the major league roster, and I may be precipitous on Warren. Some of the candidates are probably likely; for instance, I imagine that two of the SP candidates will end up on the major league roster, but the point is that the above gives us a sense of areas in need of decisions and/or improvement.

A note on the outfield: As I've said before, the Angels don't need to--and probably won't, unless they can get rid of Upton--go with the traditional three starters, one fourth outfielder, but rather a rotation of four semi-regulars or more. Trout is pencilled in for full-time, but whether or not he can start 140 games remains to be seen. Even if he does, that leaves 346 starts in the OF, or an average of about 115 each for the remaining three. I think it comes down to who performs (and if Trout and Upton are healthy). But regardless, the Angels are set in the outfield, with AAA probably being Orlando Martinez, Brennon Lund, and either Ward if he has options, or a journeyman.

From the above, I think the Angels needs are:

1-2 starting pitchers. This is the big question. If Maddon gets his way, it will likely be two. Premier and expensive options ($20M+) include Gausman, Scherzer, Kershaw, Syndergaard, Rodon, Stroman and Ray. Moderate options (~$15M) include DeScaflani, Verlander, Greinke, Gray, Kluber, Paxton, and one or two others. Budget options ($12M or less) include Cobb, Smyly, Heaney, Davies, Duffy, Fiers, etc.

Some of those players might go for more or less, depending on years. For instance, I could see someone signing Verlander or Greinke for 1/$20M+.

I would guess that the Angels target one of the expensive options, default on a moderate one, and then re-sign Cobb, who could be a bargain if healthy. Two budget options would be the Eppler approach, but I just don't think will happen. 

2-3 relievers. Another big question. The Angels have auditioned a ton of young guys, with none standing out as locks, although some showing glimmers of promise. How many relievers they acquire via free agency or trades depends upon how many dice-rolls they want to make with in-house pitchers, most of whom are experienced. They could go with one or more of Barria, Junk, and Naughton as swingmen/middle relievers, and put Chris Rodriguez back in the bullpen. They could continue the auditioning in Spring Training and even into April and May, but they'll want some solidity to start ith. At the least, they probably need to acquire at least one elite reliever/closer--be it re-signing Raisel Iglesias or going after Kenley Jansen, or a more budget/risky option like Rosenthal or Yates--and one or two veteran relievers.

Regardless, I would be surprised if we didn't start next year with at least two new names in the bullpen, if not three. 

A middle infielder. They have five candidates and with Fletcher, could take a budget approach and rotate through them until someone sticks. But it is also possible that they go after a starting SS, and fill in UT with the candidates.

While Rengifo's numbers still aren't great, consider that he's hit a more acceptable .269/.314/.423 since Sept 5, which is closer to what his potential is--maybe better (more walks). Stefanic is the darkhorse candidate, and Davis the "sexy pick." Regardless, this is one area where the Angels could go for an in-house budget route, considering the number of options and strength of the rest of the lineup.

If they spend $30-40M on starting pitching and $15-20 on relief, they won't really have anything left for anything more than a journeyman middle infielder. On the other hand, knowing Arte and Maddon, there's a creeping fear that they go after Javier "Can't Take a Walk" Baez, who at least hits homers and is a good defender, but that would likely mean they're only going after one moderate starter and risking it--again--with the bullpen.

A catcher. It depends upon how much they trust Thaiss' defense. Chances are they'd go after a cheap defense-first Maldonado type, although there aren't many free agent options (Chirinos? Romine?), or just go with Thaiss and minor league journeymen like Bemboom as depth.

Edited by Angelsjunky
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27 minutes ago, AngelStew43 said:

Mayfield not listed anywhere?  Surprising, since he has 10 HR, and plays decent defense at 3B.

You're right. I thought he was a FA, but he's got Arb through 2025, as does Ward, so I'll add them, and others as people correct me.

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Did my math, and found the best way to improve these team, with a set amount of Payroll. 

First of Re-sign iglesias: 64 mil over 4 years: 10,14,18,22=64

Sign one of Gausman or Ray; 144 mil over 6 years: 17/19/20/23/30/35=144

Mchugh: 18 mil over 3 years: 6 thru the 3 years

knebel: 18 Mil over 2 years: 9,9

Vogt/Maldando: 1mil for 1 yr

Simmons 2.5 mil/ 1 yr

Than,

Cobb; 14 mil over 2 years

Your looking at just over 50 Mil in additions. 

 

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I think Minasian is going to assume that Rodriguez and Quijada are going to be part of their bullpen and that we may only see one new name there.  They desperately need stability in the rotation and from a roster planning perspective, CRod's injury history plugs him in to the BP, being that replacing him as a reliever is less impactful to the pitching staff overall.  Quijada may not start the season with the big club but may be viewed as a sort of ace in the hole as other arms are vetted there.

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16 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I really hate the idea of having untradeable assets like Iglesias and Ray/Gausman when they are making $22 and $35 million a year.  

well than you can run out, guys like Bundy and Cishek at around 5 mil and 1 mil! 

You got to pay to improve! but you got to spend wisely aswell. 

In theory, by the time it get to that much (22, and 35) we should have money to spend, Including Othani's extension.

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14 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

well than you can run out, guys like Bundy and Cishek at around 5 mil and 1 mil! 

You got to pay to improve! but you got to spend wisely aswell. 

In theory, by the time it get to that much (22, and 35) we should have money to spend, Including Othani's extension.

ok, so using that line of thinking, the Angels would be paying Trout $36 million, Rendon $36 million, Ohtani $40 million, Iglesias about $20 million and Ray/Gausman $30 million at the same time.  That is over $160 million in four or five years on 5 players, and that doesn't include the arb eligible guys at that time like Marsh, Adell, Detmers, Suarez, Canning, Sandoval.  Can't be short sighted.  

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57 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

Did my math, and found the best way to improve these team, with a set amount of Payroll. 

First of Re-sign iglesias: 64 mil over 4 years: 10,14,18,22=64

Sign one of Gausman or Ray; 144 mil over 6 years: 17/19/20/23/30/35=144

Mchugh: 18 mil over 3 years: 6 thru the 3 years

knebel: 18 Mil over 2 years: 9,9

Vogt/Maldando: 1mil for 1 yr

Simmons 2.5 mil/ 1 yr

Than,

Cobb; 14 mil over 2 years

Your looking at just over 50 Mil in additions. 

 

There's little incentive for Iglesias or any other top free agent to sign a back-loaded contract,  assuming they have a roughly similar offer at even a little less total value that isn't back-loaded.

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1 hour ago, Stradling said:

ok, so using that line of thinking, the Angels would be paying Trout $36 million, Rendon $36 million, Ohtani $40 million, Iglesias about $20 million and Ray/Gausman $30 million at the same time.  That is over $160 million in four or five years on 5 players, and that doesn't include the arb eligible guys at that time like Marsh, Adell, Detmers, Suarez, Canning, Sandoval.  Can't be short sighted.  

Well we don't have a choice! we're not the rays and don't have an elite farm system. So either we spend and I mean spend more than what Arte tends to spend, or be stuck in the same siutauion. 

Aren't we already in a similar sistutaion? we're Paying Albert close to 30 mil to play on the dodgers, Upton 23ish to be on the Dl, Rendon 27 mil to be on the Dl, Trout 30 Mil to be on the Dl, =110 mil on position players, maybe just split up and pay 160 on pitchers and hitters! 

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

There's little incentive for Iglesias or any other top free agent to sign a back-loaded contract,  assuming they have a roughly similar offer at even a little less total value that isn't back-loaded.

That is true, but it also depend. But If we're giving them the most money and they agreed to sign? 

Trout did it, Even Rendon did it.

Iglesias might if he wants to stay.

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3 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

Well we don't have a choice! we're not the rays and don't have an elite farm system. So either we spend and I mean spend more than what Arte tends to spend, or be stuck in the same siutauion. 

Aren't we already in a similar sistutaion? we're Paying Albert close to 30 mil to play on the dodgers, Upton 23ish to be on the Dl, Rendon 27 mil to be on the Dl, Trout 30 Mil to be on the Dl, =110 mil on position players, maybe just split up and pay 160 on pitchers and hitters! 

That is true, but it also depend. But If we're giving them the most money and they agreed to sign? 

Trout did it, Even Rendon did it.

Iglesias might if he wants to stay.

Trout's extension wasn't backloaded.  He got $36.8M the first year and gets over $37M the other 11 years.  And Rendon got $26-28M his first 2 years, and then will jump to a flat $38.6M for the remainder of the contract.  In your hypothetical, you have the starting pitchers taking half the salary in their 1st year as in the last year of the deal.  With the Iglesias hypothetical, it's even more extreme.

Minor backloading is one thing.  What you're proposing is not even in the same league as what either Trout or Rendon did.

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3 hours ago, Stradling said:

I really want to see a 40 man break down.  Perhaps bold or change font color for the minor leaguers that have to be protected.  

This may help:

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/angels

Scroll down to the minor leaguers.  Anyone who has a red "R5" in the "Options or R5 Status" column is already eligible for the Rule 5 Draft.  Anyone eligible for the 1st time this year will have "Dec '21" in that column. 

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4 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

There's little incentive for Iglesias or any other top free agent to sign a back-loaded contract,  assuming they have a roughly similar offer at even a little less total value that isn't back-loaded.

Also it's easier to move him in the last year(s) of his contract if the Angels want to trade him.  In a perfect world you want to front-load contracts and withhold NTCs.

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6 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

MLB-Network-Hot-Stove.jpeg

We've been doing some of this for most of the season, but I thought I'd scan through the team and update where we are, in terms of what pieces are in place for next year, and what holes need to be filled (gross).

Bold players are virtual locks for the 25-man roster (assuming they aren't released or traded), and regular are candidates.

2022 25-Man Roster (Locks and in-house Candidates)

C Stassi, Thaiss

1B Walsh

2B Fletcher

SS Rengifo, Mayfield

3B Rendon

UT/MI Stefanic, Rojas, Wong, Davis, Barreto

OF Trout, Upton, Marsh, Adell, Ward

SP Ohtani, Sandoval, Suarez, Detmers, Rodriguez, Canning, Barria

RP Mayers, Warren, Ortega, Quijada, Wantz, Selman, Tyler, Herget, Diaz, Junk, Naughton, Barria, etc

The following players could be considered depth for the major leagues next year:

AA/AAA:

IF Davis, Stefanic, Barreto, MacKinnon

OF Lund, Martinez, Ward

Canning, Daniels, Diaz, Criswell, Tyler, Detmers/Rodriguez, Junk, Naughton, Peguero, Bachman, Bush, Danish, Higgins, Linginfelter, Smith, Marte, Reyes, Molina, Silseth, Pina, etc.

As you can see, only about 13 players can be considered "locks" for the major league roster, and I may be precipitous on Warren. Some of the candidates are probably likely; for instance, I imagine that two of the SP candidates will end up on the major league roster, but the point is that the above gives us a sense of areas in need of decisions and/or improvement.

A note on the outfield: As I've said before, the Angels don't need to--and probably won't, unless they can get rid of Upton--go with the traditional three starters, one fourth outfielder, but rather a rotation of four semi-regulars or more. Trout is pencilled in for full-time, but whether or not he can start 140 games remains to be seen. Even if he does, that leaves 346 starts in the OF, or an average of about 115 each for the remaining three. I think it comes down to who performs (and if Trout and Upton are healthy). But regardless, the Angels are set in the outfield, with AAA probably being Orlando Martinez, Brennon Lund, and either Ward if he has options, or a journeyman.

From the above, I think the Angels needs are:

1-2 starting pitchers. This is the big question. If Maddon gets his way, it will likely be two. Premier and expensive options ($20M+) include Gausman, Scherzer, Kershaw, Syndergaard, Rodon, and Ray. Moderate options (~$15M) include Stroman, DeScaflani, Verlander, Greinke, Gray, Kluber, Paxton, Teheran, and one or two others. Budget options ($12M or less) include Cobb, Smyly, Heaney, Davies, Duffy, Fiers, etc.

Some of those players might go for more or less, depending on years. For instance, I could see someone signing Verlander or Greinke for 1/$20M+.

I would guess that the Angels target one of the expensive options, default on a moderate one, and then re-sign Cobb, who could be a bargain if healthy. Two budget options would be the Eppler approach, but I just don't think will happen. 

2-3 relievers. Another big question. The Angels have auditioned a ton of young guys, with none standing out as locks, although some showing glimmers of promise. How many relievers they acquire via free agency or trades depends upon how many dice-rolls they want to make with in-house pitchers, most of whom are experienced. They could go with one or more of Barria, Junk, and Naughton as swingmen/middle relievers, and put Chris Rodriguez back in the bullpen. They could continue the auditioning in Spring Training and even into April and May, but they'll want some solidity to start ith. At the least, they probably need to acquire at least one elite reliever/closer--be it re-signing Raisel Iglesias or going after Kenley Jansen, or a more budget/risky option like Rosenthal or Yates--and one or two veteran relievers.

Regardless, I would be surprised if we didn't start next year with at least two new names in the bullpen, if not three. 

A middle infielder. They have five candidates and with Fletcher, could take a budget approach and rotate through them until someone sticks. But it is also possible that they go after a starting SS, and fill in UT with the candidates.

While Rengifo's numbers still aren't great, consider that he's hit a more acceptable .269/.314/.423 since Sept 5, which is closer to what his potential is--maybe better (more walks). Stefanic is the darkhorse candidate, and Davis the "sexy pick." Regardless, this is one area where the Angels could go for an in-house budget route, considering the number of options and strength of the rest of the lineup.

If they spend $30-40M on starting pitching and $15-20 on relief, they won't really have anything left for anything more than a journeyman middle infielder. On the other hand, knowing Arte and Maddon, there's a creeping fear that they go after Javier "Can't Take a Walk" Baez, who at least hits homers and is a good defender, but that would likely mean they're only going after one moderate starter and risking it--again--with the bullpen.

A catcher. It depends upon how much they trust Thaiss' defense. Chances are they'd go after a cheap defense-first Maldonado type, although there aren't many free agent options (Chirinos? Romine?), or just go with Thaiss and minor league journeymen like Bemboom as depth.

Again Danish gets snubbed.

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4 hours ago, Stradling said:

ok, so using that line of thinking, the Angels would be paying Trout $36 million, Rendon $36 million, Ohtani $40 million, Iglesias about $20 million and Ray/Gausman $30 million at the same time.  That is over $160 million in four or five years on 5 players, and that doesn't include the arb eligible guys at that time like Marsh, Adell, Detmers, Suarez, Canning, Sandoval.  Can't be short sighted.  

not only is Arte not going to do that, but it's just a terrible idea.  

the current team is going to win 76-78 games.  With a +3-4 in run diff meaning that a similar performance will likely leave them with 73-74 wins or so.  Granted, they were decimated by injury, but the above scenario leaves you with zero out on a go forward.  Meaning they couldn't spend another dime for like 5 years.  Then what?   You're stuck with hoping that your improvements and health with add close to 20 wins?  

To really improve the team for next year and maybe for the next 3-4, they'll likely have to make at least one if not two really really painful trades.  Ones that include more than one of Marsh, Adell, Detmers, and Rodriguez.   There's no way they're going to invest in Gausman or similar, Igelsias or similar, Cobb or similar, and then spend to fill out the rest of the team.  

I really don't think Perry is gonna get away with another year of development for all those young guys.  

I would prefer they go after a starter they could limit to a couple years and let Detmers, Rodriguez, Sandoval, Suarez and Canning as well as maybe a Cobb type to fill out the rotation.  That scenario probably put you at around 40-45m spent.  Then you've got another 10m or so to fill out the rest.  Which means no Iglesias.  

I'm not convinced Cobb is gonna keep doing what's he's doing but Perry needs to be given a little bit of leeway with his player eval process.  My 'rabbit out of a hat' guy is Gray.  I just like guys with good stuff that pitch in Col.  I would actually be happy with an off season of Gray and Cobb for the rotation.  My first choice for a closer would be to do the same thing they did last year or do that anyway even if it's not for a closer.  In other words, take on 1-2 years of a reliever who's probably being paid a bit too much instead of signing some 31 or 32 year old to a 3-4 year deal.  

I like Warren and Quijada and I think we're gonna like Marte.  Wantz is serviceable.  If Mayers is not a late innings guy then he's capable.  I'd be fine with Cishek in a similar role to Mayers.  Ortega and Peguero among others as depth.  I'd add one more really strong arm here if possible.  

Extend Stassi.  

Backup C and I'd keep Thaiss at C back and forth from SLC as needed.  He's the backup next year.  

I wouldn't mind seeing what happens with Rengifo at SS and Fletch at 2b.  Fletch can shift to SS if needed.  Davis could come on.  But I would spend a decent chunk on someone like Chris Taylor.  A really good backup for just about any position.  

Ward, Gosselin are other potentials to fill out the roster.  

So that's kinda my plan A.  

The team has to show me that they can win a bit before I start trading the future away.  

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1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

not only is Arte not going to do that, but it's just a terrible idea.  

the current team is going to win 76-78 games.  With a +3-4 in run diff meaning that a similar performance will likely leave them with 73-74 wins or so.  Granted, they were decimated by injury, but the above scenario leaves you with zero out on a go forward.  Meaning they couldn't spend another dime for like 5 years.  Then what?   You're stuck with hoping that your improvements and health with add close to 20 wins?  

To really improve the team for next year and maybe for the next 3-4, they'll likely have to make at least one if not two really really painful trades.  Ones that include more than one of Marsh, Adell, Detmers, and Rodriguez.   There's no way they're going to invest in Gausman or similar, Igelsias or similar, Cobb or similar, and then spend to fill out the rest of the team.  

I really don't think Perry is gonna get away with another year of development for all those young guys.  

I would prefer they go after a starter they could limit to a couple years and let Detmers, Rodriguez, Sandoval, Suarez and Canning as well as maybe a Cobb type to fill out the rotation.  That scenario probably put you at around 40-45m spent.  Then you've got another 10m or so to fill out the rest.  Which means no Iglesias.  

I'm not convinced Cobb is gonna keep doing what's he's doing but Perry needs to be given a little bit of leeway with his player eval process.  My 'rabbit out of a hat' guy is Gray.  I just like guys with good stuff that pitch in Col.  I would actually be happy with an off season of Gray and Cobb for the rotation.  My first choice for a closer would be to do the same thing they did last year or do that anyway even if it's not for a closer.  In other words, take on 1-2 years of a reliever who's probably being paid a bit too much instead of signing some 31 or 32 year old to a 3-4 year deal.  

I like Warren and Quijada and I think we're gonna like Marte.  Wantz is serviceable.  If Mayers is not a late innings guy then he's capable.  I'd be fine with Cishek in a similar role to Mayers.  Ortega and Peguero among others as depth.  I'd add one more really strong arm here if possible.  

Extend Stassi.  

Backup C and I'd keep Thaiss at C back and forth from SLC as needed.  He's the backup next year.  

I wouldn't mind seeing what happens with Rengifo at SS and Fletch at 2b.  Fletch can shift to SS if needed.  Davis could come on.  But I would spend a decent chunk on someone like Chris Taylor.  A really good backup for just about any position.  

Ward, Gosselin are other potentials to fill out the roster.  

So that's kinda my plan A.  

The team has to show me that they can win a bit before I start trading the future away.  

This all sounds a lot like another 78 win season.

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26 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I guess we're just never going to win, then.

Sounds like a plan.

I’m pretty much there at this point. Obviously some things could break our way, particularly with the young guys, but beyond that it will require a scenario like the one Doc outlined coming through.

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