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OC Register: Analysis: Angels’ Shohei Ohtani is clear choice for AL MVP


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Before anyone gets the wrong idea and accuses me of denigrating Vladimir Guerrero Jr., let’s be clear: He’s great. He is one of the game’s best young stars, and he’s had a sensational season. The Toronto Blue Jays first baseman deserves all the accolades he’s received.

But he’s not the American League MVP.

Not this year.

While some have been inclined to push the narrative that Guerrero is making a run at the MVP award that seemed to be wrapped up by Ohtani over the summer, from my perspective nothing has changed.

Guerrero is simply locking up second place.

I have voted for the MVP many times, but I am not this year, which is why I’m able to share my opinion now instead of keeping it to myself until the results are announced on Nov. 18.

Normally, I pick the player who I believe had the best season. Period. I don’t buy that being “valuable” has anything to do with how good your teammates are, and I’m not sure how the word came to mean that in the eyes of so many.

Say you are looking at two piles of cash. One has a bunch of $1 bills and a $20 bill. The other has a pile of $5 bills and a $10 bill. You get to pick the most “valuable” bill from those piles. Which do you want?

Is the $20 somehow cheapened because it’s sitting with a bunch of $1s? It’s still the most valuable bill.

Does a car become more valuable based on what car is parked next to it? Does a watch become more valuable based on what shirt you’re wearing?

Given that, I totally dismiss any idea that Guerrero is more valuable than Ohtani because Guerrero’s teammates have been better than Ohtani’s teammates.

I also dismiss the “Triple Crown argument.” The value that Guerrero produced doesn’t change if he ends up with one more home run or one less home run than Salvador Perez.

Besides, Perez is 10 RBIs ahead of Guerrero, so he’s not going to win the Triple Crown. He’s also tied with Perez in homers and two points behind Yuli Gurriel in batting average.

We can forget the Triple Crown.

So now that we’ve eliminated the noise in the debate, the only question is whether Ohtani had a better season than Guerrero.

While I don’t believe that WAR is a flawless stat or one that should be blindly used, it is nonetheless a good starting point. According to Baseball-Reference, Ohtani has a WAR of 8.5, well ahead of Guerrero’s 6.8. FanGraphs has Ohtani with a smaller, but still significant, advantage: 7.9 to 6.6.

The reason Ohtani has an edge over Guerrero, who has been a slightly better hitter, is that … Ohtani pitches.

Yeah, there’s the Captain Obvious point you’ve been waiting to read all this time.

The simple fact that Ohtani has done something that no player has done in more than 100 years ought to be enough for him to get the MVP.

At the All-Star Game, Ohtani was the primary topic for all of the best players in the world because they all know how incredible it is for him to do what he’s done.

It’s not just some gimmick. A guy who is a hitter and can pitch well enough to work an inning here or there is a curiosity. The same goes for a pitcher who finds a way to hit a few homers now and then.

That’s not Ohtani.

Ohtani is one of the best hitters in the majors. And he’s one of the best pitchers in the majors.

If he were mediocre, or even average, at one side or another, there would be a much better case to give the MVP to a player who is simply the best everyday player.

But Ohtani is not that.

He ranks second in the league with a .966 OPS. Guerrero leads with a 1.006 mark. Ohtani has a 3.18 ERA, which was seventh-best in the league for pitchers with at least 130 innings through Sunday. He is 67 innings behind league-leading Robbie Ray, who also leads the league in ERA because the Angels gave Ohtani more rest than other pitchers to accommodate his hitting.

It’s fair to count that against him when only comparing him to other pitchers, which is why he was never much of a candidate for the Cy Young Award. But when comparing him to all players, the fact that he pitches and hits at a high level is a huge plus.

It’s a plus that no one else has.

It’s worth the MVP.

UP NEXT

Angels (LHP Packy Naughton, 0-3, 5.23 ERA) at Rangers (RHP A.J. Alexy, 2-1, 5.00), Tuesday, 5:05 p.m., Bally Sports West, 830 AM

LDN-L-ANGELS-0927-09-LO.jpg?fit=620%2C99
Fans show their support for the Angels’ Shohei Ohtani before Sunday’s game against the Mariners at Angel Stadium. Is the two-way star a slam dunk choice to be voted the American League MVP this season? Angels beat writer Jeff Fletcher believes so. (Photo by Leonard Ortiz, Orange County Register/SCNG)

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I would be survived if Ohtani doesn't win it. I mean, the MVP award generally comes down to two categories:

*Statistical - that is, who is the best player statistically.

*Narrative - anything from their role on a contender to historic elements, and other intangibles.

Ohtani leads the majors in WAR. No, he is not the best hitter or pitcher, but according to wRC+ he's the second best hitter in the AL and according to WAR he's the 17th best pitcher (12th best according to RA9-WAR). Overall his 7.9 fWAR leads the majors, and is +1.2 over Vlad in the AL.

Narratively speaking, his two-way stardom exceeds anything else, even a Triple Crown. He's doing something that hasn't been done in a century; Miggy Cabrera won the Triple Crown 9 years ago. As for playing on a contender, I think that's only a consideration as a tiebreaker. Meaning, two roughly equal players and no other factors to consider, you pick the guy on a contender.

I mean maybe if Vlad or someone else was having a 10 WAR season, then I think they'd have a case. +2 WAR over anyone else is a big deal. But that isn't the case. And even then, I think voters would have a hard time voting against Shohei.

Shohei is the MVP.

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If Vlad had continued the blistering start to September and the Jays had taken a Wild Card spot (or especially the Division), I not only would have had no problem with him winning, I probably would have been in favor of it. Just like his dad back in '04. 

But he's been awful the last 7 days, merely good the last 14 days, and it doesn't look like the Jays will be in the postseason. So I think Ohtani will win. 

That being said, I don't really care. I wish I could get more excited about Ohtani's season and MVP award, but for the fourth time in 8 seasons the Angels will have an MVP... and we all know what their record is and how many postseason games they have won. 

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The two best points here. First, as was the case w MCab, if he missed the triple crown by one number, so what. Yes, its very hard to do. But if he took two of the three categories, hed still (likely) be the best hitter, but the narrative would die. (Because "triple crown!") Wouldnt be there to argue about.

The other, more important. As it said in the article, if the Angels were simply letting him pitch because he liked it, and was putting up average numbers, that would be one thing. And vice versa with hitting. Doing both at a star level is the no contest part of it all. 

A roster or 25 Ohtanis is vastly superior to 25 Vlad Jrs. Or 25 Vlad Srs. Or 25 Trouts. Or 25 Scherzers. 

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