Jump to content
  • Welcome to AngelsWin.com

    AngelsWin.com - THE Internet Home for Angels fans! Unraveling Angels Baseball ... One Thread at a Time.

    Register today to join the most interactive online Angels community on the net!

    Once you're a member you'll see less advertisements. Become a Premium member and you won't see any ads! 

     

David Fletcher's Offense


Trendon

Recommended Posts

I think its pretty simple. Either this is an off-year or its a reversion to his true talent level. if the former, all is good and he should bounce back to being a 3 WAR player. If its the latter, then he's going to end up being a utility player once the Angels have someone better to replace him with. The only real candidates that could see major league time next year are Michael Stefanic and Brandon Davis, both of whom are still considered rather fringy. It is going to be 2-3 years before guys like Jeremiah Jackson, Kyren Paris, and Arol Vera are ready.

That said, I'm not overly concerned about giving the middle infield to Fletcher, Stefanic, Davis, Rengifo, and maybe Barreto for the next two years, considering how the rest of the lineup should look (assuming health). Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, Walsh and Stassi are all good or better hitters, and Marsh and Adell are getting there. Meaning, the larger concern is not how good Fletcher is, but whether or not the big bats can stay healthy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think its pretty simple. Either this is an off-year or its a reversion to his true talent level. if the former, all is good and he should bounce back to being a 3 WAR player. If its the latter, then he's going to end up being a utility player once the Angels have someone better to replace him with.

He has value as a utility player, even on his current contract, because of his versatility and elite defense.

What I am concerned with, though, is that Joe Maddon may still see him as a starter despite his horrible offense. So while the backup plan should be for him to be a utility player, I don't know if that will actually be the case.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

He has value as a utility player, even on his current contract, because of his versatility and elite defense.

What I am concerned with, though, is that Joe Maddon may still see him as a starter despite his horrible offense. So while the backup plan should be for him to be a utility player, I don't know if that will actually be the case.

Yeah, that could happen. Even at this performance level, I don't see him losing full time status until 2023 at the earliest. But even that isn't devastating, assuming most of the lineup is healthy and performing.

The point being, going into next year, in terms of expected offensive output, Fletcher is something like the sixth best--after Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, Walsh, and Stassi, and possibly ninth best if we assume Upton will do something and Adell and Marsh continue to develop.

Meaning, if Fletcher's performance has a huge negative impact on the offense next year, the Angels have much larger problems. If the Angels can get 400 starts out of the "Big Three" and most of the rest of the lineup is reasonably healthy, they'll score lots of runs, regardless of which version of Fletcher shows up.

That said, with his ability to make contact, I have a hard time imagining that he won't bounce back to at least .280. And who knows, maybe he'll take a lesson from this year and recognize the value of the walk.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yeah, that could happen. Even at this performance level, I don't see him losing full time status until 2023 at the earliest. But even that isn't devastating, assuming most of the lineup is healthy and performing.

The point being, going into next year, in terms of expected offensive output, Fletcher is something like the sixth best--after Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, Walsh, and Stassi, and possibly ninth best if we assume Upton will do something and Adell and Marsh continue to develop.

Meaning, if Fletcher's performance has a huge negative impact on the offense next year, the Angels have much larger problems. If the Angels can get 400 starts out of the "Big Three" and most of the rest of the lineup is reasonably healthy, they'll score lots of runs, regardless of which version of Fletcher shows up.

That said, with his ability to make contact, I have a hard time imagining that he won't bounce back to at least .280. And who knows, maybe he'll take a lesson from this year and recognize the value of the walk.

 

I’m convinced Marsh will have a higher OBP and OPS than Fletcher next season.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Adell does as well.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was totally fine with Fletch's trajectory.  8% walk rate.  10% k rate.  ISO of about 0.1.  Would probably hit about .275-.300 with an obp of .330-.360 depending on BABIP.  

Then this year happened.  BB and ISO almost in half.  Did they figure him out or his he just getting bad advice.  I sincerely hope he's not being asked to put the ball in play because that would be utterly stupid.  Actually, maybe I do because then his situation has a higher likelihood of being corrected with some appropriate coaching.  

Weird how his overall defensive rating got a shit ton worse in the last year and a half.  

That's my theme for the day.  Seems like things my be headed the right direction.  Then something derails the train.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hard to explain how Fletcher slumped from being so hot to so cold. A top ten batting average effective lead off man to a ninth place weak out. 

Is it  fatigue? He has a ton of plate appearances and swings. Many long at bats fouling off pitches. Over time that could slow bat speed or mess up timing. And lead to over compensation. He also goes through a lot of wear and tear in the field. Covering ground and making plays. 

He still is a fixture at second though, and is being paid accordingly. The team next year should be really solid offensively. Even at his .260ish average his overall value isn't bad. Gold glove level of defense and high contact hitting are valuable over the long haul. He could also rebound to better offense next year. This was the first year of his contract so the investment already has been made.

I worry more about shortstop. A great fielder would be a priority. There is enough hitting everywhere else. And don't forget the chemistry that has to be developed between short and second. Inner diamond defense makes a huge difference over a season. Fletcher provides experience and stability. If a new shortstop is acquired I doubt they also are also going to replace the one guy who is there every game. If they keep the status quo at least there is continuity. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, WicketMaiden said:

David Fletcher stats 2021:

1st in the American League for AB's per Strikeout

1st for Fielding % at 2B

2nd for Range Factor at 2B

2nd for Assists 

2nd for Put-Outs at 2B

3rd for Double Plays turned

4th for Sacrifice Hits

Yes, nothing special there at all. 

1 line item for K-rate (meaningless in isolation) and then 6 line items for “he can play defense”?

Great.  A guy that plays defense well that doesn’t strike out much.  Beyond that, crickets.

If you think that makes him a “special” player, then we will simply agree to disagree.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

By the way, David Fletcher can absolutely be the regular 2B on a championship team. But it will simply mean he basically “Holds down the fort” at that position while the rest of the team produces at a championship level.

You can’t have elite players at every position.  It just doesn’t work that way.

My comment are more pointed at what seems to be an irrational celebration of his actual value.

I think second base is probably a pretty good spot to have your grinder get-by guy, that isn’t very expensive, that allows you to have more talent at other positions.

I have no issue with keeping this guy if the Angels build the rest of the roster properly.

But my opinion remains.  He is not special.  He is a guy.

Edited by Dtwncbad
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

1 line item for K-rate (meaningless in isolation) and then 6 line items for “he can play defense”?

Great.  A guy that plays defense well that doesn’t strike out much.  Beyond that, crickets.

If you think that makes him a “special” player, then we will simply agree to disagree.

How is 4th in the AL for Sacrifice Hits a line item for 'he can play defense'? I guess you missed that, try reading it again.

Maybe I should have also mentioned his elite bat to ball skills - top 1 percentile for Whiffs along with the top 1% for K rate I mentioned - as you appear to have missed that too. It will probably surprise you learn that he is 12th in the AL for hits (tied with Altuve) and 20th in all baseball for the same metric. 

Sure, he's in a slump just like most of the team, but to say there is nothing special about the best bat to ball guy in the entire league who also plays excellent gold glove defence indicates either that you don't really understand baseball, or you just like to follow a narrative without doing any actual research.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, WicketMaiden said:

How is 4th in the AL for Sacrifice Hits a line item for 'he can play defense'? I guess you missed that, try reading it again.

Maybe I should have also mentioned his elite bat to ball skills - top 1 percentile for Whiffs along with the top 1% for K rate I mentioned - as you appear to have missed that too. It will probably surprise you learn that he is 12th in the AL for hits (tied with Altuve) and 20th in all baseball for the same metric. 

Sure, he's in a slump just like most of the team, but to say there is nothing special about the best bat to ball guy in the entire league who also plays excellent gold glove defence indicates either that you don't really understand baseball, or you just like to follow a narrative without doing any actual research.

Fouling off pitches, making contact, not striking out isn’t special, unless you actually produce some offense.

Sorry we disagree.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Fouling off pitches, making contact, not striking out isn’t special, unless you actually produce some offense.

Sorry we disagree.

160 hits sounds like offence to me. As does the fact the Fletcher has been involved in 1/6th of all the Angels runs scored this year. He has also hit .304 in the 9th inning; .310 in late and close situations; and .429 in extra innings. Sure he has had a disappointing couple of months, as has Shohei, Walsh and everybody else on the team, but to call him just a guy is pretty ignorant in my view. I'm happy we disagree.

I dread to think of your reaction if the Angels sign a glove first SS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, WicketMaiden said:

160 hits sounds like offence to me. As does the fact the Fletcher has been involved in 1/6th of all the Angels runs scored this year. He has also hit .304 in the 9th inning; .310 in late and close situations; and .429 in extra innings. Sure he has had a disappointing couple of months, as has Shohei, Walsh and everybody else on the team, but to call him just a guy is pretty ignorant in my view. I'm happy we disagree.

I dread to think of your reaction if the Angels sign a glove first SS.

He’s had four bad months this year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He needs to be moved down in the order to see if his approach changes. If not, maybe Davis can win his spot by late next year.

I have no issue giving him the contract we did given his performance at the time. Those are exactly the types of relatively cheap contracts you want to give out to promising young players coming out of your system. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fletcher has a whole lot of lazy pop flies and infield grounders. Some hard hit balls too, and to be fair, he's been unlucky on many of them. .288 BABIP.

As his slump deepened, he got swing happy which is the last thing you want to do. He needs to reevaluate his entire approach in the batter's box. The only positive I see is he does make contact and the strikeouts are low. Needs to wait for better pitches to swing at. 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, WicketMaiden said:

160 hits sounds like offence to me. As does the fact the Fletcher has been involved in 1/6th of all the Angels runs scored this year. He has also hit .304 in the 9th inning; .310 in late and close situations; and .429 in extra innings. Sure he has had a disappointing couple of months, as has Shohei, Walsh and everybody else on the team, but to call him just a guy is pretty ignorant in my view. I'm happy we disagree.

I dread to think of your reaction if the Angels sign a glove first SS.

My reaction to the Angels signing a glove first SS would be, “so the Angels signed a guy.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...