David Fletcher's Offense

[Angel Oracle]

Fletcher is gold glove defensively.

Fletcher is Ray Oyler offensively.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

He has value as a utility player, even on his current contract, because of his versatility and elite defense.

What I am concerned with, though, is that Joe Maddon may still see him as a starter despite his horrible offense. So while the backup plan should be for him to be a utility player, I don't know if that will actually be the case.

Yeah, that could happen. Even at this performance level, I don't see him losing full time status until 2023 at the earliest. But even that isn't devastating, assuming most of the lineup is healthy and performing.

The point being, going into next year, in terms of expected offensive output, Fletcher is something like the sixth best--after Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, Walsh, and Stassi, and possibly ninth best if we assume Upton will do something and Adell and Marsh continue to develop.

Meaning, if Fletcher's performance has a huge negative impact on the offense next year, the Angels have much larger problems. If the Angels can get 400 starts out of the "Big Three" and most of the rest of the lineup is reasonably healthy, they'll score lots of runs, regardless of which version of Fletcher shows up.

That said, with his ability to make contact, I have a hard time imagining that he won't bounce back to at least .280. And who knows, maybe he'll take a lesson from this year and recognize the value of the walk.

 

[Stradling]

17 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yeah, that could happen. Even at this performance level, I don't see him losing full time status until 2023 at the earliest. But even that isn't devastating, assuming most of the lineup is healthy and performing.

The point being, going into next year, in terms of expected offensive output, Fletcher is something like the sixth best--after Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, Walsh, and Stassi, and possibly ninth best if we assume Upton will do something and Adell and Marsh continue to develop.

Meaning, if Fletcher's performance has a huge negative impact on the offense next year, the Angels have much larger problems. If the Angels can get 400 starts out of the "Big Three" and most of the rest of the lineup is reasonably healthy, they'll score lots of runs, regardless of which version of Fletcher shows up.

That said, with his ability to make contact, I have a hard time imagining that he won't bounce back to at least .280. And who knows, maybe he'll take a lesson from this year and recognize the value of the walk.

 

I’m convinced Marsh will have a higher OBP and OPS than Fletcher next season.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Adell does as well.  

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

I’m convinced Marsh will have a higher OBP and OPS than Fletcher next season.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Adell does as well.  

Agree on Marsh, and agree on OPS for Adell, but maybe not OBP.

[Docwaukee]

I was totally fine with Fletch's trajectory.  8% walk rate.  10% k rate.  ISO of about 0.1.  Would probably hit about .275-.300 with an obp of .330-.360 depending on BABIP.  

Then this year happened.  BB and ISO almost in half.  Did they figure him out or his he just getting bad advice.  I sincerely hope he's not being asked to put the ball in play because that would be utterly stupid.  Actually, maybe I do because then his situation has a higher likelihood of being corrected with some appropriate coaching.  

Weird how his overall defensive rating got a shit ton worse in the last year and a half.  

That's my theme for the day.  Seems like things my be headed the right direction.  Then something derails the train.  

[Duren, Duren]

Hard to explain how Fletcher slumped from being so hot to so cold. A top ten batting average effective lead off man to a ninth place weak out. 

Is it  fatigue? He has a ton of plate appearances and swings. Many long at bats fouling off pitches. Over time that could slow bat speed or mess up timing. And lead to over compensation. He also goes through a lot of wear and tear in the field. Covering ground and making plays. 

He still is a fixture at second though, and is being paid accordingly. The team next year should be really solid offensively. Even at his .260ish average his overall value isn't bad. Gold glove level of defense and high contact hitting are valuable over the long haul. He could also rebound to better offense next year. This was the first year of his contract so the investment already has been made.

I worry more about shortstop. A great fielder would be a priority. There is enough hitting everywhere else. And don't forget the chemistry that has to be developed between short and second. Inner diamond defense makes a huge difference over a season. Fletcher provides experience and stability. If a new shortstop is acquired I doubt they also are also going to replace the one guy who is there every game. If they keep the status quo at least there is continuity. 

[Dtwncbad]

9 hours ago, WicketMaiden said:

David Fletcher stats 2021:

1st in the American League for AB's per Strikeout

1st for Fielding % at 2B

2nd for Range Factor at 2B

2nd for Assists 

2nd for Put-Outs at 2B

3rd for Double Plays turned

4th for Sacrifice Hits

Yes, nothing special there at all. 

1 line item for K-rate (meaningless in isolation) and then 6 line items for “he can play defense”?

Great.  A guy that plays defense well that doesn’t strike out much.  Beyond that, crickets.

If you think that makes him a “special” player, then we will simply agree to disagree.

[Dtwncbad]

By the way, David Fletcher can absolutely be the regular 2B on a championship team. But it will simply mean he basically “Holds down the fort” at that position while the rest of the team produces at a championship level.

You can’t have elite players at every position.  It just doesn’t work that way.

My comment are more pointed at what seems to be an irrational celebration of his actual value.

I think second base is probably a pretty good spot to have your grinder get-by guy, that isn’t very expensive, that allows you to have more talent at other positions.

I have no issue with keeping this guy if the Angels build the rest of the roster properly.

But my opinion remains.  He is not special.  He is a guy.

Edited September 28, 2021 by Dtwncbad

[TheLordofOuts]

David Fletcher fleeced Arte for a lot of cash

[Blarg]

David Fletcher needs to get an apartment next to Driveline and spend the larger part of the off season there trying to re-define what he should be doing at the plate as opposed to the clusterfuck of swing at everything approach. 

[eligrba4ever]

Will Fletch remember where he put his first half by the time he reports to spring training?

Hope somebody starts a 9/28 Gameday.

[WicketMaiden]

5 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

1 line item for K-rate (meaningless in isolation) and then 6 line items for “he can play defense”?

Great.  A guy that plays defense well that doesn’t strike out much.  Beyond that, crickets.

If you think that makes him a “special” player, then we will simply agree to disagree.

How is 4th in the AL for Sacrifice Hits a line item for 'he can play defense'? I guess you missed that, try reading it again.

Maybe I should have also mentioned his elite bat to ball skills - top 1 percentile for Whiffs along with the top 1% for K rate I mentioned - as you appear to have missed that too. It will probably surprise you learn that he is 12th in the AL for hits (tied with Altuve) and 20th in all baseball for the same metric. 

Sure, he's in a slump just like most of the team, but to say there is nothing special about the best bat to ball guy in the entire league who also plays excellent gold glove defence indicates either that you don't really understand baseball, or you just like to follow a narrative without doing any actual research.

[Dtwncbad]

20 minutes ago, WicketMaiden said:

How is 4th in the AL for Sacrifice Hits a line item for 'he can play defense'? I guess you missed that, try reading it again.

Maybe I should have also mentioned his elite bat to ball skills - top 1 percentile for Whiffs along with the top 1% for K rate I mentioned - as you appear to have missed that too. It will probably surprise you learn that he is 12th in the AL for hits (tied with Altuve) and 20th in all baseball for the same metric. 

Sure, he's in a slump just like most of the team, but to say there is nothing special about the best bat to ball guy in the entire league who also plays excellent gold glove defence indicates either that you don't really understand baseball, or you just like to follow a narrative without doing any actual research.

Fouling off pitches, making contact, not striking out isn’t special, unless you actually produce some offense.

Sorry we disagree.

[WicketMaiden]

9 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Fouling off pitches, making contact, not striking out isn’t special, unless you actually produce some offense.

Sorry we disagree.

160 hits sounds like offence to me. As does the fact the Fletcher has been involved in 1/6th of all the Angels runs scored this year. He has also hit .304 in the 9th inning; .310 in late and close situations; and .429 in extra innings. Sure he has had a disappointing couple of months, as has Shohei, Walsh and everybody else on the team, but to call him just a guy is pretty ignorant in my view. I'm happy we disagree.

I dread to think of your reaction if the Angels sign a glove first SS.

[Angel Oracle]

Take away the 26 game hitting streak, and his OBP and OPS are really, really, really low.   OPS is probably mid .500s at best.

He had 653 PAs in 2019.   It’s not like he never had a ton of PAs before.

[Stradling]

2 hours ago, WicketMaiden said:

160 hits sounds like offence to me. As does the fact the Fletcher has been involved in 1/6th of all the Angels runs scored this year. He has also hit .304 in the 9th inning; .310 in late and close situations; and .429 in extra innings. Sure he has had a disappointing couple of months, as has Shohei, Walsh and everybody else on the team, but to call him just a guy is pretty ignorant in my view. I'm happy we disagree.

I dread to think of your reaction if the Angels sign a glove first SS.

He’s had four bad months this year. 

[Angel Oracle]

.263/.298/.321/.619 is pretty bad for a full season of 650+ PAs

70 OPS+ is really bad.

13-114 (.114 BA) since August 25 is, to paraphrase the Miz, really, really, really bad.

Edited September 29, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[AngelsFaninGA]

He needs to be moved down in the order to see if his approach changes. If not, maybe Davis can win his spot by late next year.

I have no issue giving him the contract we did given his performance at the time. Those are exactly the types of relatively cheap contracts you want to give out to promising young players coming out of your system. 

[Chuck]

Shohei Ohtani has 75 barreled balls this season. 

Barrels: A batted ball with the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle.

David Fletcher has 0 in 2021. 

[fan_since79]

That's a .298 OBP, @Angel Oracle

 

[fan_since79]

Fletcher has a whole lot of lazy pop flies and infield grounders. Some hard hit balls too, and to be fair, he's been unlucky on many of them. .288 BABIP.

As his slump deepened, he got swing happy which is the last thing you want to do. He needs to reevaluate his entire approach in the batter's box. The only positive I see is he does make contact and the strikeouts are low. Needs to wait for better pitches to swing at. 

 

 

[fan_since79]

I think it was Ty Cobb who said that when got in a slump, and that was not often, he would imagine line drive up the middle. Simplify your swing. Unclutter the mind and stay with that image.

[Dtwncbad]

6 hours ago, WicketMaiden said:

160 hits sounds like offence to me. As does the fact the Fletcher has been involved in 1/6th of all the Angels runs scored this year. He has also hit .304 in the 9th inning; .310 in late and close situations; and .429 in extra innings. Sure he has had a disappointing couple of months, as has Shohei, Walsh and everybody else on the team, but to call him just a guy is pretty ignorant in my view. I'm happy we disagree.

I dread to think of your reaction if the Angels sign a glove first SS.

My reaction to the Angels signing a glove first SS would be, “so the Angels signed a guy.”

[Angel Oracle]

6 hours ago, WicketMaiden said:

160 hits sounds like offence to me. As does the fact the Fletcher has been involved in 1/6th of all the Angels runs scored this year. He has also hit .304 in the 9th inning; .310 in late and close situations; and .429 in extra innings. Sure he has had a disappointing couple of months, as has Shohei, Walsh and everybody else on the team, but to call him just a guy is pretty ignorant in my view. I'm happy we disagree.

I dread to think of your reaction if the Angels sign a glove first SS.

None of those other players has had anything nears a .114 BA and .172 OBP in a 5 week period like Fletcher is having.

[Docwaukee]

6 hours ago, WicketMaiden said:

160 hits sounds like offence to me. As does the fact the Fletcher has been involved in 1/6th of all the Angels runs scored this year. He has also hit .304 in the 9th inning; .310 in late and close situations; and .429 in extra innings. Sure he has had a disappointing couple of months, as has Shohei, Walsh and everybody else on the team, but to call him just a guy is pretty ignorant in my view. I'm happy we disagree.

I dread to think of your reaction if the Angels sign a glove first SS.

you can chop it up however you'd like but he's been pretty brutal this year.  It's not 1979.  Hits that don't do damage don't matter as much and he's got 0.2 WAR.  Maybe WAR isn't the end all be all of value but he's basically just a shade over being a replacement player this year.  Shohei and Walsh do damage when they don't slump so to even compare them isn't reasonable.  The best Fletch is gonna do when he's doing well is a bunch of singles and a few doubles.   Pitching to a guy like that is different.  If he's that guy again next year then he's really not even a guy.  Or he's a batting 9th afterthought.  

2019 and 2020 showed that he could be an 8% walk rate sort with great defense.  That's great.  But a .619 ops with a 70 ops+ is a guy that might lose his job.