The Padres glorious off-season revisited

[Inside Pitch]

Some of the numbers are off -- Snell and Darvish have been more valuable than is being stated here and Caratini and Nola have been worse..   But still pretty crazy to see the returns.

At least Musgrove/Darvish/Snell weren't rentals.

[T.G.]

I liked their moves at the time. I respect them for "going for it." 

Baseball is a funny game. Winning is hard. Winning it all is extremely hard.

[Inside Pitch]

Just now, True Grich said:

I liked their moves at the time. I respect them for "going for it." 

Baseball is a funny game. Winning is hard. Winning it all is extremely hard.

Sort of like...

We got Pujols!
F Yu!

Obligatory

[Blarg]

The sad part is most of those, even the failures, are better than some of the Angels off season acquisitions. 

[Blarg]

Forgotten is the Tatis contract for a guy that really isn't a good fielder no matter where they put him. 

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, Blarg said:

The sad part is most of those, even the failures, are better than some of the Angels off season acquisitions. 

yah but we didn't crush our future to get them.  

I was actually waiting on this to see if they made the playoffs first because if they don't it's an epic disaster.  Especially if they get beat for a WC spot by CIN.  

Many here were so complimentary on their offseason but it's just another indication of why you have to do things the right way and remain patient.  They were almost there and then jumped the gun.  

The more moves you make in this regard, the greater chance there is that some of them aren't going to work and if you need all of them to work then you're screwed.  

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Since August 1st the Padres are 14-22, the Dodgers are 29-10 and the Giants are 29-11.  A lot of things have gone well (Dodgers, Giants) or poorly (Padres) for those records and I don't think acquiring Scherzer means the Padres are ahead of either of those teams but it definitely would have impacted the last month and a half.  Regardless the Dodgers and Giants have been playing really good baseball.    

[Blarg]

15 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

yah but we didn't crush our future to get them.  

I was actually waiting on this to see if they made the playoffs first because if they don't it's an epic disaster.  Especially if they get beat for a WC spot by CIN.  

Many here were so complimentary on their offseason but it's just another indication of why you have to do things the right way and remain patient.  They were almost there and then jumped the gun.  

The more moves you make in this regard, the greater chance there is that some of them aren't going to work and if you need all of them to work then you're screwed.  

When you swap out 11 of your 25 man roster it is a dice roll more than a plan. Every player acquired has a given risk factor for success or failure.

There is probably more stability in the roster you have than bringing in outside talent just in basic odds like Let's Make a Deal where you decide if the $1,500 in your hand is worth more than what's in the box. Sure, it could be a car or it could be a donkey. But you have to give up the dough to find out.

Do it 11 times and you are probably going to have a stable of donkeys. Maybe a Kia Rio or two with a manual shift and no air conditioning. But what do you do with the donkeys?

In the Angels case they play right field for three weeks and go lame. 

[jsnpritchett]

Obviously they gave up a lot for guys that aren't necessarily producing what the Padres hoped for this year--but isn't the tweet a little misleading?  It almost seems to imply that they Padres only control those guys for this season and that 6.7 WAR is all they're ever going to get for them.  They control Musgrove through next season, Snell & Darvish through '23, Nola through '25, Adams through '24, Frazier through next season, Williams through '24, Clevinger through next season, Caratini through 2023, and potentially Marisnick through next season (mutual option).  That's not 167 years of control like they gave up--but you wouldn't expect the years of control to be equal when you're trading prospects for major leaguers.

Again, not saying these were all the right moves--but they're not quite as bad as the tweet makes it seem.

Edited October 4, 2021 by jsnpritchett

[Inside Pitch]

10 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

The more moves you make in this regard, the greater chance there is that some of them aren't going to work and if you need all of them to work then you're screwed.  

I genuinely think they did as many things as they did in hopes that at least some of them would pan out and there not be any one glaring mistake.... there was a ton of moving the deck chairs around that started at last season's deadline.

I do agree that it was cool they went for it so hard and their bigger moves were more than just rentals but you gotta believe they were hoping for a lot better than what they seen outside of the Musgrove deal.

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, jsnpritchett said:

Obviously they gave up a lot for guys that aren't necessarily producing what the Padres hoped for this year--but isn't the tweet a little misleading?  It almost seems to imply that they Padres only control those guys for this season and that 6.7 WAR is all they're ever going to get for them.  They control Musgrove through next season, Snell & Darvish through '23, Nola through '25, Adams through '24, Frazier through next season, Williams through '24, Clevinger through next season, Caratini through 2023, and potentially Marisnick through next season (mutual option).  That's not 167 years of control like they gave up--but you wouldn't expect the years of control to be equal when you're trading prospects for major leaguers.

Again, not saying these were all the right moves--but they're not quiet as bad as the tweet makes it seem.

I pointed out these guys weren't rentals and that the data was off on Darvish and Snell, but the counter to this is the other teams will also see the benefits of those deals beyond this year.   Mejia/Patino have only just begun. and they've combined for 1.6 bWAR. Ty France who they moved for Nola along with Torrens and Trammell has put up 2.8 bWAR on his own..  Bednar who was acquired for Musgrove adds 1.1 by himself

Those teams are ALSO seeing the payoff now and will continue to in the future.

[Angel Oracle]

It’s even worse over the past 28 games for the Padres, 8-20.

Preller and Tingler are praying every day for the Reds and Cards to  the couch.

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Angel Oracle said:

It’s even worse over the past 28 games for the Padres, 8-20.

Preller and Tingler are praying every day for the Reds and Cards to  the couch.

Speaking of the Reds...  how much would give to have never done the Iglesias trade?   Heath Hembree leads their pen in saves with 8 -- he has a 6.38 ERA.  Amir Garrett, 6.18.   They scored getting Givens but talk about ouchies...

[Blarg]

By the way, the Angels traded for Dexter Fowler and included a PTBNL but I can't find any player that was the completion of the deal. Did that just get passed up because Fowler blew up three weeks into the season?

[rageous]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

yah but we didn't crush our future to get them.  

I was actually waiting on this to see if they made the playoffs first because if they don't it's an epic disaster.  Especially if they get beat for a WC spot by CIN.  

Many here were so complimentary on their offseason but it's just another indication of why you have to do things the right way and remain patient.  They were almost there and then jumped the gun.  

The more moves you make in this regard, the greater chance there is that some of them aren't going to work and if you need all of them to work then you're screwed.  

They traded away their futures yet their minor league system is still way better than the Angels.

Says a lot right there.

[Inside Pitch]

6 minutes ago, rageous said:

They traded away their futures yet their minor league system is still way better than the Angels.

Says a lot right there.

Mostly it means they averaged 90 losses for 9 years.  A standard of futility the Angels have reached ONCE in the last 22 years.

[mmc]

Half these guys weren’t even offseason acquisitions though?

[mmc]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Mostly it means they averaged 90 losses for 9 years.  A standard of futility the Angels have reached ONCE in the last 22 years.

And during those 9 years both teams won zero playoff games, except the difference is the Padres are a good team now and actually appear to have a future whereas we’re still stuck in no man’s land…

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, mmc said:

Half these guys weren’t even offseason acquisitions though?

You can rename the thread whatever you want to better suit the situation.   I was just harking back to the buzz over the winter.

2 minutes ago, mmc said:

And during those 9 years both teams won zero playoff games, except the difference is the Padres are a good team now and actually appear to have a future whereas we’re still stuck in no man’s land…

A lot of damage was done to this franchise post Bill Stoneman.

[gotbeer]

Wasn't Clevenger known to need surgery that would have shelved him for this season?  

 

[Angelsjunky]

One of the reasons I love baseball: you just never know. Before the season started it looked like the Dodgers would duke it out for 110 wins. And now the Giants are the best team in baseball?

BTW, according to fWAR, Darvish is at 2.4 and Snell at 2.2. Man, I hate pitching WAR. Too wacky.

[Lou]

2 hours ago, gotbeer said:

Wasn't Clevenger known to need surgery that would have shelved him for this season?  

 

He made 4 starts for the Padres and came out of his NLDS start after 1 inning. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

One of the reasons I love baseball: you just never know. Before the season started it looked like the Dodgers would duke it out for 110 wins. And now the Giants are the best team in baseball?

BTW, according to fWAR, Darvish is at 2.4 and Snell at 2.2. Man, I hate pitching WAR. Too wacky.

Yup, I made reference to them having been more valuable, was looking at fWAR when I did.   Not a fan of bWAR .vs fWAR for anything other than quick math/comparisons, their defensive component leads to some nutty results... Remember Nola's crazy 8.5 bWAR a few years back?

Seems like every season the consensus off-season winner ends up underperforming the community expectation.  There are just so many variables and as the Ms are proving, there is no accounting for clutch/dumb luck.

[wopphil]

10 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

Obviously they gave up a lot for guys that aren't necessarily producing what the Padres hoped for this year--but isn't the tweet a little misleading?  It almost seems to imply that they Padres only control those guys for this season and that 6.7 WAR is all they're ever going to get for them.  They control Musgrove through next season, Snell & Darvish through '23, Nola through '25, Adams through '24, Frazier through next season, Williams through '24, Clevinger through next season, Caratini through 2023, and potentially Marisnick through next season (mutual option).  That's not 167 years of control like they gave up--but you wouldn't expect the years of control to be equal when you're trading prospects for major leaguers.

Again, not saying these were all the right moves--but they're not quiet as bad as the tweet makes it seem.

Not to mention the guys they gave up aren’t going to spend 167 years in the big leagues. 

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

Yup, I made reference to them having been more valuable, was looking at fWAR when I did.   Not a fan of bWAR .vs fWAR for anything other than quick math/comparisons, their defensive component leads to some nutty results... Remember Nola's crazy 8.5 bWAR a few years back?

Seems like every season the consensus off-season winner ends up underperforming the community expectation.  There are just so many variables and as the Ms are proving, there is no accounting for clutch/dumb luck.

Yeah, I remember that, although double-checked and Nola had a 10.2 bWAR that year! (2018). 5.5 fWAR...I wonder if that is the biggest discrepancy between the two ever. It certainly puts some doubt into the accuracy of both, although I think fWAR is (generally) closer to the truth.

But yeah, there's no accounting for the X-Factor, be it luck, clutch, or mentality. I think psychology is woefully underrated, partially because there's no way to quantify it. I wonder if the Padres were so high and over confident, that they just never clicked. Obviously more quantifiable factors are central, though.