Prediction: Which pending free agents WILL the Angels re-sign and bring back for next year?

[BTH]

Which pending free agents do you think the Angels will re-sign and bring back for next year? Not who you want them to bring back, but who you think they will bring back. (All pending free agents were included as options)

[mmc]

Only Cobb.  Arte won’t sign off on giving Raisel what he wants and deserves and none of the others are worth bringing back

[James]

14 minutes ago, mmc said:

Only Cobb.  Arte won’t sign off on giving Raisel what he wants and deserves and none of the others are worth bringing back

I don't understand why someone would think Arte wouldn't pay someone as that hasn't been the issue in the past. 

[mmc]

7 minutes ago, James said:

I don't understand why someone would think Arte wouldn't pay someone as that hasn't been the issue in the past. 

When's the last time this team gave a contract anywhere near as big as Raisel will get to a reliever?

[BTH]

26 minutes ago, mmc said:

Only Cobb.  Arte won’t sign off on giving Raisel what he wants and deserves and none of the others are worth bringing back

One thing that's worth noting is that Arte Moreno specifically said in a Zoom conference after the season last year that them not closing out games in 2020 was an issue. Perry's main answer to that was to get Raisel, so Arte might actually be on board with paying Raisel to keep him.

[mmc]

11 minutes ago, Trendon said:

One thing that's worth noting is that Arte Moreno specifically said in a Zoom conference after the season last year that them not closing out games in 2020 was an issue. Perry's main answer to that was to get Raisel, so Arte might actually be on board with paying Raisel to keep him.

Hope you're right and this is definitely the most confident I've been about us making a major bullpen signing, but I just can't see Arte winning a bidding war if some reliever desperate teams like the Phillies or Blue Jays get involved.  Also expect the Dodgers, Yankees, Mariners, White Sox, Mets, Padres, Giants to pursue him hard

[BTH]

5 minutes ago, mmc said:

Hope you're right and this is definitely the most confident I've been about us making a major bullpen signing, but I just can't see Arte winning a bidding war if some reliever desperate teams like the Phillies or Blue Jays get involved.  Also expect the Dodgers, Yankees, Mariners, White Sox, Mets, Padres, Giants to pursue him hard

That's why they need to pay up and get him signed before he reaches free agency. Pay extra if it means you get the player.

If they do extend him, I think the time period in which that occurs would be during the qualifying offer period. Like they give him a QO and then present a lucrative multi-year offer, showing him that they want him back and will give him a variety of contract options to choose from.

[totdprods]

I think they'll def. QO Iglesias...it'll help give them an edge in negotiating and make it more difficult for others to be as engaged, and guarantees us some compensation if we lose him. 

Lagares makes too much sense for a 4th/5th OF and he's been satisfactory...there isn't really anyone internal who'd fill the same role, and we could keep Trout, Upton, Adell, Marsh, and Lagares without issue on the MLB club. 

Cobb...maybe his injuries keep him from landing a big contract in either length or dollars, but that also works against the logic for keeping him. If he's not going to be durable, that presents a problem. On the other hand, we might have the internal young pitchers to weigh that risk. Sort of depends on the bigger context of offseason moves, who we might be targeting for the rotation, which young pitchers might be involved in trades for other needs, etc.

[UndertheHalo]

I think they’ll probably keep Cobb around and he should be on a reasonable enough deal.  I think with Iglesias it’s pretty 50/50.  Im not really sure what I think about giving him a deal.  He’s a fun pitcher.  Pretty good.   He’s probably as good a bet as any of the other guys available.  

[Junkballer]

23 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I think they'll def. QO Iglesias...it'll help give them an edge in negotiating and make it more difficult for others to be as engaged, and guarantees us some compensation if we lose him. 

 

I just wonder if they are willing to take the risk of paying Iglesias in the neighborhood of 19mil for one season and if it's in Minasian's DNA to offer a QO to a reliever, no matter how good.  It would have been nice to get a 3 year extension earlier with much lower AAV.  He's been pretty consistent in his career.  So, I don't think a QO is a lock and I can see them doing a Bavasi, "we can get 2 back end relievers for the same price as Iglesias" type of thing (and of course pick the wrong two guys).  Being that there is probably no chance to extend him, I hope they QO him as it would be nice to be able to close out game from game 1, just not sure it will happen.

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

I don't expect any of these guys to be back.

[gotbeer]

Iglesias would be nice to have back.  But as a FA, he's going to have a lot of bidders.  Here are the top paid closers for 2021.

1	Kenley Jansen	RP/CL	33	$20,000,000
2	Aroldis Chapman  NYY	RP/CL	33	$17,200,000
3	Craig Kimbrel  CHW	RP/CL	33	$16,000,000
4	Will Smith  ATL	RP/CL	31	$13,000,000
5	Liam Hendriks  CHW	RP/CL	32	$11,333,333
6	Trevor Rosenthal  OAK	RP/CL	31	$11,000,000
7	Brad Hand  NYM	RP/CL	31	$10,500,000
8	Raisel Iglesias  LAA	RP/CL	31	$9,125,000

9	Ryan Pressly  HOU	RP/CL	32	$8,750,000
10	Felipe Vazquez  PIT	RP/CL	29	$7,750,000

 

Qualifying offer was $18.9 million for 2021.  It's safe to say that Iglesias will not be getting a QO, based on that figure.  But he is a pretty big need.  $11 million is probably a fair value if the Angels want to keep him.  The question is, will he be fine where he is, or will he go to a "contender" instead.  

Because as it looks right now.  You have Ohtani and Iglesias.  And maybe Cobb as your only pitchers for sure.  Maybe a healthy Sandoval.  That's still 2-3 Starting pitchers, and 4-5 relievers you will need.  That's quite a challenge to fill in one offseason.  Especially a team with $100 million already committed to next season, for just 5 players.

[T.G.]

Raisel Iglesias and Alex Cobb…

However, nothing would surprise me.

[totdprods]

3 hours ago, gotbeer said:

Qualifying offer was $18.9 million for 2021.  It's safe to say that Iglesias will not be getting a QO, based on that figure.  But he is a pretty big need.  $11 million is probably a fair value if the Angels want to keep him.  The question is, will he be fine where he is, or will he go to a "contender" instead.  

I think for regarding the QO, it's less about getting Iglesias on 1/$19m, but more for driving his demand down on the open market. It gives them a little more leverage. We've seen that players with QO will have their market nicked as a result, and I think for a reliever especially so. And it gives the Angels a compensation pick which makes the fact they didn't trade him a little easier to handle.  

Certainly there's risk that he accepts the deal, but the Angels could afford it, even if it's a lot of money, but it's also just for one year. 

[totdprods]

4 hours ago, Junkballer said:

I just wonder if they are willing to take the risk of paying Iglesias in the neighborhood of 19mil for one season and if it's in Minasian's DNA to offer a QO to a reliever, no matter how good.  It would have been nice to get a 3 year extension earlier with much lower AAV.  He's been pretty consistent in his career.  So, I don't think a QO is a lock and I can see them doing a Bavasi, "we can get 2 back end relievers for the same price as Iglesias" type of thing (and of course pick the wrong two guys).  Being that there is probably no chance to extend him, I hope they QO him as it would be nice to be able to close out game from game 1, just not sure it will happen.

I think they might, because I don't necessarily think he'll take the QO. If I'm remembering right, that offer is only good for a week or two once it's out and then it expires. Sure, there's a strong chance he takes it, but there's also a good chance he doesn't and sees what the open market brings - and teams will be a little more leery about signing him if he's already expecting elite closer dollars ($15m-$20m annually, especially if he's already 'rejected' a 1/$19m) and losing a pick. In this instance the QO is all about giving the Angels leverage, less about the money. 

And in addition to that, I'm still not totally sure the Angels spend a bunch this winter, and if they do, it might be more of the same we've seen from Eppler and Minasian. A lot of one-year commitments, either by FA or trading for pending FAs.

We've seen enough growth from the youngsters this year that I think the Angels could keep folks mostly intact, retain Iglesias, add a couple cheap vet RPs again like Watson, Cishek, Guerra, and Claudio, stick with the other kid relievers, stick with the same bench, go internal at SS (or find another cheap vet like Jose Iglesias), sign a cheap vet SP like Cobb or Quintana and hope for better, and one mid-range SP and it would even out financially. This sounds really similar to last year's winter which produced this awful season, but what really hurt us this year wasn't those moves as much as it was missing Trout, Rendon, Upton, Bundy being bad, Heaney continuing to disappoint, Quintana not working out (all will be gone and have already been replaced), and our main relievers sucking. So it really comes down to fixing the bullpen again (and I still think the best route is NOT spending big money here aside from a closer), health (again), and maybe good luck for once in signing a vet SP.

I think there's a chance they try to poach off of other team's financial constraints again. They could go after David Price's $16m for the Dodgers to work out their Kershaw, Bauer, Scherzer mess. Minasian could go to Atlanta and try and pry away Will Smith and his $13m. If he could land both of those guys plus re-sign Iglesias, we might be able to get away with just sticking to the kids for all the other needs, plus a minor signing/trade here and there.

Edited September 12, 2021 by totdprods

[khouse]

I believe only Iglesias will be resigned. As I think Bundy's regression, this season from last, will make them leary about Cobb... 

[Stradling]

6 hours ago, mmc said:

When's the last time this team gave a contract anywhere near as big as Raisel will get to a reliever?

Huston Street

[Erstad Grit]

I  can't even remember the last time we made a QO. Can anyone enlighten me? Glaus?

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

I  can't even remember the last time we made a QO. Can anyone enlighten me? Glaus?

I'm not sure they have...

[BTH]

I think that the Angels have got to give Iglesias the QO.

If he declines it, then you get a compensation pick.

If he accepts it, it's a high AAV but it means that you don't have the long-term risk on the books. 1/$19M is a safer play than a 3-4 year contract paying him ~$15M per season. It gives you peace of mind at the closer's role for another year while you hope that an internal candidate can emerge to replace him in 2023, whether it's Rodriguez, Warren, Mayers, Marte, or someone else.

[BTH]

I only chose Cobb. Maddon really likes him and Cobb has publicly said he wants to return.

Obviously, Iglesias should be the priority.

I could see Cishek or Fowler being re-signed because Maddon likes them.

[totdprods]

10 hours ago, Trendon said:

I only chose Cobb. Maddon really likes him and Cobb has publicly said he wants to return.

Obviously, Iglesias should be the priority.

I could see Cishek or Fowler being re-signed because Maddon likes them.

Cishek is starting to grow on me a bit, and given his recent stint on the bereavement list, I have to wonder if perhaps there was a family illness that was weighing on him this summer. 
At his age, he won't command much money, and if there's enough supporting cast around him to where he isn't our 2nd best high-lev reliever, I'd have no problem seeing him back on a similar 1/$1.5m or whatever he's signed to this year.

Cobb certainly fills a need too.

[Stradling]

Of that group there are only 3 that interest me, Iglesias, Cobb and Cishek, in that order of interest.  Depending on budget I wouldn’t be surprised if they re-sign any or all of those 3.  I’ll assume Iglesias is getting 3 years and around $42 million.  Cobb will get around $10 million for one year.  And Cishek will get $2-3 million.  

[BTH]

3 hours ago, totdprods said:

Cishek is starting to grow on me a bit, and given his recent stint on the bereavement list, I have to wonder if perhaps there was a family illness that was weighing on him this summer. 
At his age, he won't command much money, and if there's enough supporting cast around him to where he isn't our 2nd best high-lev reliever, I'd have no problem seeing him back on a similar 1/$1.5m or whatever he's signed to this year.

Cobb certainly fills a need too.

I have one main concern with bringing back Cishek: he's 35. He's a sidearmer, so he might last longer than others, but he's eventually gonna decline. Next year could easily be that year.

[BTH]

I'd like to see Fowler back as a clubhouse presence, but he just doesn't fit great with the roster. It'd be one thing if he was still a good defender with speed, but he's not.