Adell & Marsh

[Angelsjunky]

We've still got about 20 games left so can revisit this during the offseason, but what are folks' thoughts on Adell and Marsh? What do you expect to see from them next year? Here are their stats through Sept 8:

Marsh: 49 games, .253/.314/.367, 89 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR (incl. 0.7 Def), 8.1 BB%, 39.5 K%

Adell: 33 games, .250/.302/.408, 95 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR (incl. -1.5 Def), 6.2 BB%, 23.1 K%

What stands out to be is the K rates. Marsh is very high and Adell is surprisingly low. Adell's new approach is also probably why he only has 4 HR so far.

Anyhow, I think the news is overall good, even very good. Both are holding their own, not far below league average as hitters. I think as Marsh gains more experience and confidence, his BB rate will go up and his K rate will go down, and he'll hit the ball with more authority, producing a bunch of extra base hits. Adell looks like a completely different hitter from last year and I think we should be very pleased with what we're seeing.

Next year, I think Marsh is capable of hitting .270+/.350+/.400+, with an emphasis on the "+." By 2023 I see him settling in as a .290/.370/.450 guy, who will eventually bring that SLG up as he hits more HR, probably eventually around 20-25 a year.

As for Adell, I do think his K% will go up a bit, but I'm heartened by what I see and think he can also be an above average player next year, maybe something like .250/.320/.470, with his numbers improving over the next few years, maybe eventually to something like .270/.340/.550.

Both, I think, will be 3 WAR players next year, and both eventually 5 WAR players or, at least, in the "borderline star" range of 3.5 to 5 WAR, but with peak years at the higher end or even above that range. Maybe that's optimistic, but I'm liking what I see.

[tdawg87]

Adell is literally Justin Upton.

[tdawg87]

Just now, tdawg87 said:

Adell is literally Justin Upton.

Racist.

[totdprods]

Marsh will come around re: the strikeouts. It seems every at-bat he works the count, takes a lot of pitches (too many), and winds up getting burned by good MLB pitchers who aren't afraid of him. He's just too selective right now, and that's a good thing. Once he gets more familiar with the league, MLB-level stuff, and more confident, we'll see the strikeouts go down, the hits go up, and then eventually pitchers will start getting more careful...then the BBs will go up. I think this is also the scenario where line-up protection really benefits a hitter. If he's hitting before Trout, Rendon, Ohtani early in his career, he'll get better pitches - once he learns he can be more aggressive.

Adell has looked great. You can tell he's put more effort into making contact - maybe not walking more - but focusing on contact first and power second. Once he harnesses that, the power will come as he develops. 

I really like the 4-man OF rotation you've pitched where each guy is projected for something like 120 G/450 AB or whatever (it'll fluctuate with injury and performance) and I think it's completely feasible, especially with Marsh and Adell being able to cover any position. Makes perfect sense. 

I'd still be open to dealing one for a top-level arm, but the Angels hold far more leverage with these guys now than they ever have. They don't need to trade one for Max Meyer. They don't need to roll the dice on someone with injury/control/effectiveness concerns. They can hold out and only entertain offers for the best of the best SPs that come into the trade market, or push them if they see a target they really, really want, purely speculatively, guys like Flaherty, Burnes, Peralta, Giolito, Castillo, Fried, Alcantara, Marquez. They can now afford to wait for a truly elite arm with club-control to come onto market instead of rushing or forcing a deal, should it even make sense in the next 12-24 months.

[Angelsjunky]

28 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Adell is literally Justin Upton.

But you're kind of right. What remains to be seen is whether Adell will be more consistent. Upton oscillated between all-star years and merely solid years for most of his career. If we consider 2008 as development, from 2009-18 he had full-time WAR seasons of 1.9 to 6.3, with most in the 2.5 to 3.7 range. I suppose my hope is that a "typical" Jo Adell season will be a bit better than that, more like 4+ WAR, but that may depend on two things: how his defense develops and whether or not he can develop more disicipline.

Adell might also have more raw power than Upton ever had. In a best-case scenario, Adell has a few 40+ HR seasons, while Upton maxed out at 35.

[TheLordofOuts]

Adell will be Black Trout

[Angelsjunky]

4 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Marsh will come around re: the strikeouts. It seems every at-bat he works the count, takes a lot of pitches (too many), and winds up getting burned by good MLB pitchers who aren't afraid of him. He's just too selective right now, and that's a good thing. Once he gets more familiar with the league, MLB-level stuff, and more confident, we'll see the strikeouts go down, the hits go up, and then eventually pitchers will start getting more careful...then the BBs will go up. I think this is also the scenario where line-up protection really benefits a hitter. If he's hitting before Trout, Rendon, Ohtani early in his career, he'll get better pitches - once he learns he can be more aggressive.

Adell has looked great. You can tell he's put more effort into making contact - maybe not walking more - but focusing on contact first and power second. Once he harnesses that, the power will come as he develops. 

I really like the 4-man OF rotation you've pitched where each guy is projected for something like 120 G/450 AB or whatever (it'll fluctuate with injury and performance) and I think it's completely feasible, especially with Marsh and Adell being able to cover any position. Makes perfect sense. 

I'd still be open to dealing one for a top-level arm, but the Angels hold far more leverage with these guys now than they ever have. They don't need to trade one for Max Meyer. They don't need to roll the dice on someone with injury/control/effectiveness concerns. They can hold out and only entertain offers for the best of the best SPs that come into the trade market, or push them if they see a target they really, really want, purely speculatively, guys like Flaherty, Burnes, Peralta, Giolito, Castillo, Fried, Alcantara, Marquez. They can now afford to wait for a truly elite arm with club-control to come onto market instead of rushing or forcing a deal, should it even make sense in the next 12-24 months.

Yes, agreed on all counts. As for the last, I think you're right. This year they've earned their 60 FV prospect status, which means that--if they were still considered prospects--both would be top 15. The only current pitching prospect that Fangraphs has at 60 FV is Grayson Rodriguez (BAL), a 21 year old dominating AA right now - meaning, not far from what Reid Detmers is, at least statistically, and FG only gave a 50 FV to.

Meaning, I think either Marsh or Adell could be packaged for an established younger starter, like the guys you mentioned. 

That said, I hope we keep both. I'm concerned about Adams and after him, all the other OF prospects are either 2-3 years away or not as high upside. I wonder if the Angels would consider transitioning someone like Jeremiah Jackson to the outfield. 

 

[Angel Oracle]

Maybe Vera at 3B long term with Paris at SS long term?

[totdprods]

16 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, agreed on all counts. As for the last, I think you're right. This year they've earned their 60 FV prospect status, which means that--if they were still considered prospects--both would be top 15. The only current pitching prospect that Fangraphs has at 60 FV is Grayson Rodriguez (BAL), a 21 year old dominating AA right now - meaning, not far from what Reid Detmers is, at least statistically, and FG only gave a 50 FV to.

Meaning, I think either Marsh or Adell could be packaged for an established younger starter, like the guys you mentioned. 

That said, I hope we keep both. I'm concerned about Adams and after him, all the other OF prospects are either 2-3 years away or not as high upside. I wonder if the Angels would consider transitioning someone like Jeremiah Jackson to the outfield. 

I think Jackson's future is OF, personally. I also don't think it's terribly hard to find a solid vet corner outfielder yearly on the FA market, despite our poor track record. 

I wouldn't move Adell or Marsh for a prospect anymore, not after they've shown some success in the majors like this. Too much risk no matter how good the SP prospect is. Hold out for the best-of-the-best in MLB SPs now in trades, if there's a need. I'd like to keep both too, at least for now, but I also recognize that we still have a need for frontline starting pitching and that it's a lot harder to find/develop/acquire those than it is similar position players. I'm in the camp that you don't need an ace to win (though Ohtani arguably is that in the playoffs) and you can get buy with just a good, balanced team. Give me a rotation behind Ohtani of solid #3 types, a couple lockdown relievers, and our lineup and I like our chances. 

Edited September 9, 2021 by totdprods

[rafibomb]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think as Marsh gains more experience and confidence, his BB rate will go up and his K rate will go down, and he'll hit the ball with more authority, producing a bunch of extra base hits.

I also think Marsh has been experiencing a lot of bad luck as well. Right now he has a HardHit % of 51.7%. If he had enough at-bats to qualify, that would rank him 14th in the league between Nelson Cruz and Paul Goldschmidt. His average exit velocity (92.2) would rank him in the top 15 as well. I'd say his strikeouts is the only "concern" but I believe he will get that figured out by next season (and by figured out I mean down to a more manageable 20-25%).

Edited September 9, 2021 by rafibomb

[Taylor]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

Adell is literally Justin Upton.

Outfieldist

[Angelsjunky]

32 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I think Jackson's future is OF, personally. I also don't think it's terribly hard to find a solid vet corner outfielder yearly on the FA market, despite our poor track record. 

I wouldn't move Adell or Marsh for a prospect anymore, not after they've shown some success in the majors like this. Too much risk no matter how good the SP prospect is. Hold out for the best-of-the-best in MLB SPs now in trades, if there's a need. I'd like to keep both too, at least for now, but I also recognize that we still have a need for frontline starting pitching and that it's a lot harder to find/develop/acquire those than it is similar position players. I'm in the camp that you don't need an ace to win (though Ohtani arguably is that in the playoffs) and you can get buy with just a good, balanced team. Give me a rotation behind Ohtani of solid #3 types, a couple lockdown relievers, and our lineup and I like our chances. 

You may remember an in-depth post I wrote late last year (I think) in which I looked at World Series champs from the last two decades and discovered that many of them didn't have a true "ace," but all except one had at least three good #3 types, or something like two #2s and two #4s. Meaning, it is really about who your top four (or so) starters are, at least as a baseline, and less about how good your best starter is.

Right now I'd call Ohtani a #2. He is close to being a #1, but given that he only starts once a week, his value is closer to a #2 than a true #1. I think to be considered a true number one, innings count. Ohtani's at 20 starts and 112 IP and will probably end the year around 130, assuming he makes three more starts. Even 25/150 over a full year is somewhat disqualifying, in my view; you really want 28/180 at least to be a #1.

Sandoval and Suarez look like #3s, or at least close to it. Both may peak as #2-3s, but right now they're in the #3-4 range.

Detmers and Rodriguez have similar upside, but aren't yet proven. For now I think you have to consider them #4s, with #2-3 potential, maybe a tad higher for Rodriguez, although his health concerns make his upside similar to Detmers'.

At this point, I'd be happy if Canning turned out to be a solid #3-4, although I wouldn't want to pencil him as anything more than a #4-5 right now. I think Daniel isn't far behind, and may turn into a solid #3-4.

Barria, Naughton, Criswell, Tyler, Diaz...all #5-6 starters. The type of guys you want in AAA to fill-in as needed, but you don't want more than one of these guys in your rotation. Maybe one or two turns out to be a decent #4, but I think they're all really depth/fill-in types.

So as of right now, if you take the median and edge towards being a bit conservative, I'd say the Angels have: one #2 (Ohtani), one #3s (Sandoval), four #4s (Suarez, Detmers, Rodriguez, Canning), and four or five guys who could be #5s (the rest). Almost everyone of those guys could jump a spot and be in a higher category, if things go right, but also there's the chance that they fall or struggle for whatever reason. But the point being, they already have close to the starters to be competitive, and if one or two of the guys I listed as #4s can pitch like #3s, they are right there.

This doesn't mean they shouldn't try to swing a Marquez trade or go after Ray or Stroman. I think they should and will. But they've got a much stronger foundation right now than they've had in years, with lots of cheap and young in-house options. 

Edited September 9, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Angelsjunky]

10 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

I also think Marsh has been experiencing a lot of bad luck as well. Right now he has a HardHit % of 51.7%. If he had enough at-bats to qualify, that would rank him 14th in the league between Nelson Cruz and Paul Goldschmidt. His average exit velocity (92.2) would rank him in the top 15 as well. I'd say his strikeouts is the only "concern" but I believe he will get that figured out by next season (and by figured out I mean down to a more manageable 20-25%).

Yep. From what I've seen of his play on the field, I can't really imagine him hitting less than .280 in a season, and he could have some years where he hits above .300. But that is contingent on him cutting the strikeout rate, which like you, I think he will.

[Angelsjunky]

40 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Maybe Vera at 3B long term with Paris at SS long term?

Originally I was thinking Jackson at 3B, Vera at SS, and Paris at 2B, with Fletcher being the veteran super UT who plays close to full-time subbing at all three positions. But Paris and Vera are at least two years away, probably more for Vera. So there's a lot of time to see how things pan out, and by that point (say, 2024-25) we should have a better bead on Placencia, Guzman, etc.

[totdprods]

Suarez, even with the CG against Texas and including his 5.1 IP, 1 ER 'relief' start after Bundy in New York, still has an ERA around 4.50 as a starter this year. I'm not quite ready to see him as a #3...that's more like #4-#5 production. Yes, I know some of it because our pen sucks and they've allowed inherited runners to score, but he hasn't quite ascended yet. I think he will. 

Ohtani is a true #1 in a playoff series, but I agree that his usage somewhat caps him during the season. Sandoval is the only one I really have any confidence in going into next year to be at least a #3 or better, but there's risk there too. Can't say the same about Rodriguez, Detmers, Canning, or Barria. We're still very thin right in the middle of the rotation, IMO. A lot of guys have mid-rotation ceilings and could get there fast, like Sandoval this season, but banking on it for 2022 is ambitious still. 

I think they should sign one of the better SP targets this year - Gausman will be too expensive, Toronto won't let Ray go easily...Stroman I think makes the most sense purely because he seems like he'd want to be here - and then yes, another one-year vet. We might be fortunate in that Cobb's injuries could lower his demand and allow him back on like a 1/$8m. Hold off any trades for frontline arms for now and keep Adell and Marsh in the fold and see how it all plays out.

[Angels 1961]

I'm glad Adell played last year. Showed him what he needing to work on. Looks like a total different player now. I think he feels he belongs now. 

[Chuck]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Adell is literally Justin Upton.

I'll take it. 

[tdawg87]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

But you're kind of right. What remains to be seen is whether Adell will be more consistent. Upton oscillated between all-star years and merely solid years for most of his career. If we consider 2008 as development, from 2009-18 he had full-time WAR seasons of 1.9 to 6.3, with most in the 2.5 to 3.7 range. I suppose my hope is that a "typical" Jo Adell season will be a bit better than that, more like 4+ WAR, but that may depend on two things: how his defense develops and whether or not he can develop more disicipline.

Adell might also have more raw power than Upton ever had. In a best-case scenario, Adell has a few 40+ HR seasons, while Upton maxed out at 35.

Upton is at 36.9 WAR right now. He'll probably finish at about 37. Maybe he'll have one decent season before he retires and ends up at 40. Probably loses a couple points on his career OPS+ and ends up at 115.

I'd be absolutely ecstatic if that's Adell's career. 

I want more, obviously. But I would be very happy if we got Arizona J-Up for the next 6 years.

[Jason]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Adell is literally Justin Upton.

They do look alike 

[tdawg87]

Just now, Jason said:

They do look alike 

YOU DID THE THING

[oldguy]

55 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

You may remember an in-depth post I wrote late last year (I think) in which I looked at World Series champs from the last two decades and discovered that many of them didn't have a true "ace," but all except one had at least three good #3 types, or something like two #2s and two #4s. Meaning, it is really about who your top four (or so) starters are, at least as a baseline, and less about how good your best starter is.

Right now I'd call Ohtani a #2. He is close to being a #1, but given that he only starts once a week, his value is closer to a #2 than a true #1. I think to be considered a true number one, innings count. Ohtani's at 20 starts and 112 IP and will probably end the year around 130, assuming he makes three more starts. Even 25/150 over a full year is somewhat disqualifying, in my view; you really want 28/180 at least to be a #1.

Sandoval and Suarez look like #3s, or at least close to it. Both may peak as #2-3s, but right now they're in the #3-4 range.

Detmers and Rodriguez have similar upside, but aren't yet proven. For now I think you have to consider them #4s, with #2-3 potential, maybe a tad higher for Rodriguez, although his health concerns make his upside similar to Detmers'.

At this point, I'd be happy if Canning turned out to be a solid #3-4, although I wouldn't want to pencil him as anything more than a #4-5 right now. I think Daniel isn't far behind, and may turn into a solid #3-4.

Barria, Naughton, Criswell, Tyler, Diaz...all #5-6 starters. The type of guys you want in AAA to fill-in as needed, but you don't want more than one of these guys in your rotation. Maybe one or two turns out to be a decent #4, but I think they're all really depth/fill-in types.

So as of right now, if you take the median and edge towards being a bit conservative, I'd say the Angels have: one #2 (Ohtani), one #3s (Sandoval), four #4s (Suarez, Detmers, Rodriguez, Canning), and four or five guys who could be #5s (the rest). Almost everyone of those guys could jump a spot and be in a higher category, if things go right, but also there's the chance that they fall or struggle for whatever reason. But the point being, they already have close to the starters to be competitive, and if one or two of the guys I listed as #4s can pitch like #3s, they are right there.

This doesn't mean they shouldn't try to swing a Marquez trade or go after Ray or Stroman. I think they should and will. But they've got a much stronger foundation right now than they've had in years, with lots of cheap and young in-house options. 

Agree about Ohtani.  He's as good as most number ones when he pitches, however his inability to pitch even every 6th day puts a huge strain on a staff which features little to no depth.  

[Angelsjunky]

47 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Suarez, even with the CG against Texas and including his 5.1 IP, 1 ER 'relief' start after Bundy in New York, still has an ERA around 4.50 as a starter this year. I'm not quite ready to see him as a #3...that's more like #4-#5 production. Yes, I know some of it because our pen sucks and they've allowed inherited runners to score, but he hasn't quite ascended yet. I think he will. 

Yep, which is why I said "close to it" (that was for him, not Sandoval) and counted him among the #4s.

47 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Ohtani is a true #1 in a playoff series, but I agree that his usage somewhat caps him during the season. Sandoval is the only one I really have any confidence in going into next year to be at least a #3 or better, but there's risk there too. Can't say the same about Rodriguez, Detmers, Canning, or Barria. We're still very thin right in the middle of the rotation, IMO. A lot of guys have mid-rotation ceilings and could get there fast, like Sandoval this season, but banking on it for 2022 is ambitious still. 

True, although there are so many of them that you'd think at least one would take a big step forward. So maybe Sandoval is a #3, Suarez a #3-4, and one of the other guys reaches a #3-4 next year, with the rest in the #4-5 range. That still gives the Angels four guys who could be better than a #4, if not all quite #3s.

47 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I think they should sign one of the better SP targets this year - Gausman will be too expensive, Toronto won't let Ray go easily...Stroman I think makes the most sense purely because he seems like he'd want to be here - and then yes, another one-year vet. We might be fortunate in that Cobb's injuries could lower his demand and allow him back on like a 1/$8m. Hold off any trades for frontline arms for now and keep Adell and Marsh in the fold and see how it all plays out.

Yes, agree 100%. Then you'd have:

Ohtani, Stroman, Sandoval, Cobb, Suarez, Detmers

Rodriguez and Barria in the pen until someone gets hurt, or Barria traded; Canning, Daniel, Naughton, Criswell, Tyler, Diaz in AAA.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

Upton is at 36.9 WAR right now. He'll probably finish at about 37. Maybe he'll have one decent season before he retires and ends up at 40. Probably loses a couple points on his career OPS+ and ends up at 115.

I'd be absolutely ecstatic if that's Adell's career. 

I want more, obviously. But I would be very happy if we got Arizona J-Up for the next 6 years.

Yes, agreed. Upton is the type of un-sexy borderline star that teased early on with superstardom, but never quite got there - but has had an excellent career, nonetheless. I mean, he's #388 all-time in position player WAR which doesn't sound great, but means he's accumulated more value to his teams than all but 387 position players in baseball history - which puts him in the 90 percentile of 4110 players with at least 3000 PA.

Or to put it another way, here are an assortment of players with 36-38 career fWAR and at least 1800 games (Upton's at 1828):

Chili Davis, Willie Wilson, Steve Garvey, Magglio Ordonez, Adrian Gonzalez

Not Hall of Famers, but definitely Hall of the Very Good. Actually, a comparable player is Tim Salmon, who accrued 35.4 fWAR in 1672 games. Upton has averaged 3.3 fWAR per 162 games, Salmon 3.4.

 

Edited September 9, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[totdprods]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yep, which is why I said "close to it" (that was for him, not Sandoval) and counted him among the #4s.

True, although there are so many of them that you'd think at least one would take a big step forward. So maybe Sandoval is a #3, Suarez a #3-4, and one of the other guys reaches a #3-4 next year, with the rest in the #4-5 range. That still gives the Angels four guys who could be better than a #4, if not all quite #3s.

Yes, agree 100%. Then you'd have:

Ohtani, Stroman, Sandoval, Cobb, Suarez, Detmers

Rodriguez and Barria in the pen until someone gets hurt, or Barria traded; Canning, Daniel, Naughton, Criswell, Tyler, Diaz in AAA.

I'd rather stock up than count on everyone staying healthy or continuing to trend upwards...it's part of why I'm assuming Canning will continue to be hurt, Detmers won't be ready, Barria inexplicitly isn't seen as a regular rotation option, Suarez might be better suited for bullpen in the short-term (more for need there as opposed to his own skill), Rodriguez' health will keep him shelved or in the pen...and hope that I'm wrong on most of those. 

Sign one more arm solid SP - a real one to a multi-year deal - to stabilize the top half, sign one more one-year cheapy vet that hopefully pans out, and maybe even explore someone like Lorenzon or Wacha who profiles as a RP or a SP for extra insurance, then hope kids force a rotation logjam as the year goes on, leaving Adell and Marsh in back-pocket for a big trade if one makes sense. 

[Angel Oracle]

Bachman is probably tops a year away?