Jose Iglesias vs Simmons so far

[beatlesrule]

Just thought I would compare the 2 with 2 months left.

Jose 0.1 bWAR 3.5 million

Simmons 0.9 bWAR 10.5 million

Both are having down years. Simmons is doing better but not 7 million better. Unless Simmons goes on a tear, Minasian got that one right.

Will be interesting to see what Arte does for next year. There are some good SS available that blow away any SS the Angels have.

[jsnpritchett]

If you look at Fangraph's WAR, Iglesias is actually ahead 0.8 to -0.2.  We win! 

[WicketMaiden]

6 hours ago, beatlesrule said:

Just thought I would compare the 2 with 2 months left.

Jose 0.1 bWAR 3.5 million

Simmons 0.9 bWAR 10.5 million

Both are having down years. Simmons is doing better but not 7 million better. Unless Simmons goes on a tear, Minasian got that one right.

Will be interesting to see what Arte does for next year. There are some good SS available that blow away any SS the Angels have.

The Angels simply can't afford a big budget SS next year. There is only 45 - 50m to spend in salary space and most of that will be needed to replace a back-up catcher, the bull-pen and hopefully improve the rotation. Just resigning Cobb and Raisel will eat half of that, leaving us with 25m to spend on improving the rest of the team. You're probably going to be disappointed if you want a shiny new SS. 

[eligrba]

I will be surprised if the Angels don't extend Jose Inglesias.  I am guessing they want Ohtani to feel as comfortable as possible.

[Erstad Grit]

I'd keep Iglesias and save the money for pitching. 

[bruin5]

The last think I want to see is a high priced shortstop.  Iglesias gets the job done and seems to be a REALLY good clubhouse presence.  

Like others, want one veteran starter (would take Cobb on a one year deal with a second year option, bullpen, a back up catcher, and sign Ohtani to an extension.  

[failos]

I’m cool with Iggy. Trevor Story would be cool to have, but at least Shohei will be happy.

[tdawg87]

Iggy is fine IMO. 

I have no idea what's going on with his defense this year, but I think he will improve.

A big time shortstop would be nice, but I'd like that money to be used on pitching. I don't see a 32 year old SS with an 86 OPS+ signing for more than 2 years. Hell, he may even take 1.

[stormngt]

Anyone got a scouting eval on Thaiss as backup Catcher?  It would solve one problem if he can fit that bill.  I have to believe Thaiss is out of options soon so it's either give up or give a chance.

  I really do not think he has been given much of a chance.  His career OPS+ is 100 which is pretty good for a part time player.

[jsnpritchett]

2 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Anyone got a scouting eval on Thaiss as backup Catcher?  It would solve one problem if he can fit that bill.  I have to believe Thaiss is out of options soon so it's either give up or give a chance.

  I really do not think he has been given much of a chance.  His career OPS+ is 100 which is pretty good for a part time player.

You sure you're looking at the right stats?  Thaiss' career OPS+ is 83.  And he still has another option year beyond this one.

[beatlesrule]

4 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

If you look at Fangraph's WAR, Iglesias is actually ahead 0.8 to -0.2.  We win! 

I don't know which one is more accurate. Baseball reference always comes up first in a google search for me and I have been using it for years now. Articles I read online don't favor one over the other. MLB trade rumors links are always to baseball reference.

[jsnpritchett]

Just now, beatlesrule said:

I don't know which one is more accurate. Baseball reference always comes up first in a google search for me and I have been using it for years now. Articles I read online don't favor one over the other. MLB trade rumors links are always to baseball reference.

Oh, I know.  I wasn't saying one was more "accurate" than the other.  I've posted on here before about how the different formulas used to calculate WAR are extremely frustrating and why I believe it'll never truly stick as a stat the average fan feels entirely comfortable with (I would bet a large amount of money that no one on this site could recite either the Fangraphs or BB-Ref formula for WAR from memory).

[Dtwncbad]

The Angels have never missed the postseason because of who is playing short.

Get some high end starting pitching and a better bullpen.

 

[stormngt]

33 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

You sure you're looking at the right stats?  Thaiss' career OPS+ is 83.  And he still has another option year beyond this one.

I suprised it was that high.

I found it on sports reference.   The category was tops+

I guess tops+ is different than ops+.  These dissection of numbers can be confusing.

I was looking to see his OPS at 714 his first year which I find impressive.  Since then he has only had parodic opportunities to play.

[beatlesrule]

14 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Oh, I know.  I wasn't saying one was more "accurate" than the other.  I've posted on here before about how the different formulas used to calculate WAR are extremely frustrating and why I believe it'll never truly stick as a stat the average fan feels entirely comfortable with (I would bet a large amount of money that no one on this site could recite either the Fangraphs or BB-Ref formula for WAR from memory).

Well, it seems to be the end all stat nowadays so they better figure it out. 0.8 and -0.2 is a big difference compared to 0.1 and 0.9 when the stats are flipped for the players.

13 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

The Angels have never missed the postseason because of who is playing short.

Get some high end starting pitching and a better bullpen.

 

Well, Arte loves the big bat. The Angels drafted a lot of pitchers sure but FA is a whole different ballgame. Arte should have done a mini fire sale at the deadline and didn't so he still clearly doesn't do the right thing. Here are the FA SS:

Javier Baez (29)
Carlos Correa (27)
Brandon Crawford (35)
Freddy Galvis (32)
Greg Garcia (32)
Leury Garcia (31)
Jose Iglesias (32)
Miguel Rojas (33) — $5.5MM club option vests with 500 PAs in 2021 ($500K buyout)
Corey Seager (28)
Marcus Semien (31)
Andrelton Simmons (32)
Trevor Story (29)
Chris Taylor (31)
Jonathan Villar (31)

I do hope he tries to sign some of those guys. They would make the lineup even more potent and the way pitching goes with this team every year, I'd say having a good offense would be great. There might be some good pitching available but most are older and won't be a future piece like a Correa or Seager etc will. I don't think the Angels have any stud SS coming up in the minors and if Rengifo can play SS, he better learn how to hit because he sucks.

[WicketMaiden]

31 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

I don't know which one is more accurate. Baseball reference always comes up first in a google search for me and I have been using it for years now. Articles I read online don't favor one over the other. MLB trade rumors links are always to baseball reference.

With those guys both being strong defensive players, fWAR is probably most accurate as Fangraphs uses UZR to grade defence, which is a little more accurate that DRS which Baseball Reference uses. I tend to use Baseball Reference for hitters and Fangraphs for pitchers and defensive metrics. As a rule of thumb Baseball Reference is a better website, but Fangraphs has more accurate data based on more real world outcomes. I'm a real data-monkey but @Inside Pitchis the guy to speak to about this sort of stuff, he is a walking encyclopaedia on baseball stats and really knows his stuff.

[jsnpritchett]

21 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Well, it seems to be the end all stat nowadays so they better figure it out. 0.8 and -0.2 is a big difference compared to 0.1 and 0.9 when the stats are flipped for the players.

Well, Arte loves the big bat. The Angels drafted a lot of pitchers sure but FA is a whole different ballgame. Arte should have done a mini fire sale at the deadline and didn't so he still clearly doesn't do the right thing. Here are the FA SS:

Javier Baez (29)
Carlos Correa (27)
Brandon Crawford (35)
Freddy Galvis (32)
Greg Garcia (32)
Leury Garcia (31)
Jose Iglesias (32)
Miguel Rojas (33) — $5.5MM club option vests with 500 PAs in 2021 ($500K buyout)
Corey Seager (28)
Marcus Semien (31)
Andrelton Simmons (32)
Trevor Story (29)
Chris Taylor (31)
Jonathan Villar (31)

I do hope he tries to sign some of those guys. They would make the lineup even more potent and the way pitching goes with this team every year, I'd say having a good offense would be great. There might be some good pitching available but most are older and won't be a future piece like a Correa or Seager etc will. I don't think the Angels have any stud SS coming up in the minors and if Rengifo can play SS, he better learn how to hit because he sucks.

Again, though, if they sign one of these guys like Correa/Seager/Story/Baez, you're talking about $25M as a floor (probably for Baez) to something north of $30M.  If the Angels do that, then they'd have $130M+ for next year committed to just FOUR players--plus they'd still run into issues from 2023 onward if they want to extend Ohtani.  Even with Upton's money dropping off, you'd have the $76M committed to Trout & Rendon, plus the $25M+ committed to one of these superstar SS, PLUS whatever you'd have to pay Ohtani (presumably at least $20M+/year in 2024-beyond).  Fletcher is another $6M+/year in 2023 and beyond.  So you're looking at ~$130M+ for 5 players.  That's not realistic.

(Edit to add that I think the Rendon contract is really going to end up being an albatross for the Angels, even if he comes back and is healthy over the next few years.  Still think he'll end up being at best a 4-5 WAR guy moving forward.  Valuable, sure--but not worth committing almost $40M a year.)

Edited August 1, 2021 by jsnpritchett

[beatlesrule]

4 minutes ago, WicketMaiden said:

With those guys both being strong defensive players, fWAR is probably most accurate as Fangraphs uses UZR to grade defence, which is a little more accurate that DRS which Baseball Reference uses. I tend to use Baseball Reference for hitters and Fangraphs for pitchers and defensive metrics. As a rule of thumb Baseball Reference is a better website, but Fangraphs has more accurate data based on more real world outcomes. I'm a real data-monkey but @Inside Pitchis the guy to speak to about this sort of stuff, he is a walking encyclopaedia on baseball stats and really knows his stuff.

I'm still trying to wrap my head around all these advanced stats but good to know. If 1 WAR is worth 8-9 million, you would think the sites would be similar so you'd be able to get an accurate assessment of a players worth. Having to  2 different try to distinguish between 2 different sites kind of defeats the purpose. Maybe those 2 players are just a unique situation though.

3 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Again, though, if they sign one of these guys like Correa/Seager/Story/Baez, you're talking about $25M as a floor (probably for Baez) to something north of $30M.  If the Angels do that, then they'd have $130M+ for next year committed to just FOUR players--plus they'd still run into issues from 2023 onward if they want to extend Ohtani.  Even with Upton's money dropping off, you'd have the $76M committed to Trout & Rendon, plus the $25M+ committed to one of these superstar SS, PLUS whatever you'd have to pay Ohtani (presumably at least $20M+/year in 2024-beyond).  Fletcher is another $6M+/year in 2023 and beyond.  So you're looking at ~$130M+ for 5 players.  That's not realistic.

I am simply going by Arte's history. Trout/Ohtani/Correa/Rendon is probably the best 4 in a row in baseball and Arte loves his offense. Minasian went pretty cheap with this years pitching and Eppler did the same when he was the GM. See a pattern here? Arte doesn't like to spend on pitching despite it not being the smart thing. So far, the Angels org has shown it's inept at putting together even a decent pitching staff. Might as well try to score more runs than the other team if that's the case again next year(history shows it will be)

[totdprods]

Not advocating for a star SS signing, but by signing one of those guys to a long-term deal, it’s easier to backload the money. Paying one of the big names $16m in ‘22 might be better than spending $8m on someone average, in Arte’s eyes.  A long-term contract can be more feasible for the Angels because they can spread the money around.

Year to year salary has been the tighter point for the Angels than luxury tax of late. 

[failos]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

Not advocating for a star SS signing, but by signing one of those guys to a long-term deal, it’s easier to backload the money. Paying one of the big names $16m in ‘22 might be better than spending $8m on someone average, in Arte’s eyes.  A long-term contract can be more feasible for the Angels because they can spread the money around.

Year to year salary has been the tighter point for the Angels than luxury tax of late. 

The Angels have too much competition with other teams for a star player to accept a backloaded contract.

[Stradling]

Just now, totdprods said:

Not advocating for a star SS signing, but by signing one of those guys to a long-term deal, it’s easier to backload the money. Paying one of the big names $16m in ‘22 might be better than spending $8m on someone average, in Arte’s eyes.  A long-term contract can be more feasible for the Angels because they can spread the money around.

Year to year salary has been the tighter point for the Angels than luxury tax of late. 

They can’t sign a premiere SS and keep Ohtani.  One of the reasons I wanted Scherzer is I felt he could be had on a two year extension, maybe three year, and by the time Ohtani needed to be paid, Scherzer would be off the team or one year remaining.  But if you sign a 5-10 year deal for Story, Seager, Baez or Correa then you would have way too much in three guys to get Ohtani and build a team.

[failos]

6 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

I'm still trying to wrap my head around all these advanced stats but good to know. If 1 WAR is worth 8-9 million, you would think the sites would be similar so you'd be able to get an accurate assessment of a players worth. Having to  2 different try to distinguish between 2 different sites kind of defeats the purpose. Maybe those 2 players are just a unique situation though.

I am simply going by Arte's history. Trout/Ohtani/Correa/Rendon is probably the best 4 in a row in baseball and Arte loves his offense. Minasian went pretty cheap with this years pitching and Eppler did the same when he was the GM. See a pattern here? Arte doesn't like to spend on pitching despite it not being the smart thing. So far, the Angels org has shown it's inept at putting together even a decent pitching staff. Might as well try to score more runs than the other team if that's the case again next year(history shows it will be)

You must’ve missed the 20 something pitchers Arte drafted.

[jsnpritchett]

3 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

I am simply going by Arte's history. Trout/Ohtani/Correa/Rendon is probably the best 4 in a row in baseball and Arte loves his offense. Minasian went pretty cheap with this years pitching and Eppler did the same when he was the GM. See a pattern here? Arte doesn't like to spend on pitching despite it not being the smart thing. So far, the Angels org has shown it's inept at putting together even a decent pitching staff. Might as well try to score more runs than the other team if that's the case again next year(history shows it will be)

Bundy still made over $8M this season.  Quintana makes $8M.  They're paying (I think?) about $5M of Cobb's salary.  So, sure, they've tended to go "cheap" on pitching and they do have a lot of young, cheap, controllable guys coming up--but they still have to hope that basically ALL of them do well/at least league average, or they're going to be in trouble yet again next year and beyond.  I will again say that unless Arte ups the budget for 2023 and beyond, the Angels will either a) not sign a superstar SS or other big-ticket position player this off-season, or b) not extend Ohtani.  I simply don't see how they can do both, if they plan on keeping both Trout and Rendon beyond next year.

[beatlesrule]

Oh man, I thought that backloaded contracts didn't matter when it came to the tax. My understanding was that it takes the annual value of the contract and that's what counts as a team payroll. Is that wrong? Arte could pay Correa or whatever SS 10-15 million in 2022 to help with the tax? I didn't think that was the case.

[jsnpritchett]

2 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Oh man, I thought that backloaded contracts didn't matter when it came to the tax. My understanding was that it takes the annual value of the contract and that's what counts as a team payroll. Is that wrong? Arte could pay Correa or whatever SS 10-15 million in 2022 to help with the tax? I didn't think that was the case.

But, again, there's no incentive for a free agent to take a deal like that when in all likelihood, they'll be able to get a deal from another team that ISN'T back-loaded.