Official 2021 Trade Deadline Discussion Thread

[Angelsjunky]

4 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I'd still be surprised if Upton went given his NTC and his daughter's health. Reading between the lines of his interviews over the years, it seemed he was really tired of moving around and not feeling a sense of belonging or being wanted where he went. He bounced around a lot, was used as a trade centerpiece a lot, and wasn't really pursued in free agency when he reached it. And I think even if we pay down his salary it would be tough for a team to take it on. He'd have to really want to get out of here - and I don't see that being the case.

He's also produced enough this year that I think it would be a mistake. I remember being hesitant to let Calhoun walk (once we missed the boat on trading him on at least two occasions) because I didn't think Adell would produce right out of the gate. Most thought he'd be at least as good as Calhoun that season. That two-year deal he signed would have been a huge lift here, unless he'd been just as injured. 

With one year left of Upton, I think we'd be better off holding him rather than risking a Trout-Adell-Marsh combo out of the gate in '22. 

OK, fair enough. But this also supports my point that he has some trade value. Worth keeping = worth acquiring. 

But it sounds like his personal situation would mean he'll veto almost any trade.

[angelsnationtalk]

16 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Sticking to what I suggested yesterday...they'll try to be busy (and it might) but I think...pretty much agree with you though.

• They'll trade Heaney and give his innings to Barria, Detmers, and/or Rodriguez (or a trade return).
• Set a very high price on Iglesias or Cobb - they might move them, they might not - but if they do, it'll probably be for something good.
• They'll add a reliever or two - maybe rental, likely not a big name. Low-key, under the radar types. 
• I think they do wind up dumping one of Bundy, Quintana, or even Watson or Cishek, maybe two together to a team buying real low
• They'll shop Adell/Marsh, Canning/CRod, maybe a SS prospect and young pitching prospect for an impact, controllable arm (plus another piece) but may not find a deal
• Also said I'd randomly like to see Carlos Santana added, and that was before Walsh was injured. I'd still like to see this, even if it's weird. 
   

Yes to this and in addition to what @Angelsjunky says with Upton. 

To me, I think it all depends on what type of shopping happens with Adell/Marsh

I know he's young, but if the Angels can put a package of Adams, Canning, Jackson and maybe someone else then I wonder if anyone would be willing to part ways with a good controllable arm. 
My reasoning is if they find a way to dump Upton while holding on to Adell and Marsh then the outfield of Adell/Trout/Marsh is set. 

But yes, I understand Adell/Marsh are more MLB ready and would net a better return (like from the Marlins with their gold mine of arms).

Just get the vibe from Minasian that he won't let someone block an opportunity from someone else should they prove to deserve it. Just like Pujols blocking Walsh and Ohtani. If Minasian believes Marsh and Adell have earned it, then something could be up with Upton. Plus, it's always easier to find a corner man in the outfield for a bit in free agency. 

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

OK, fair enough. But this also supports my point that he has some trade value. Worth keeping = worth acquiring. 

But it sounds like his personal situation would mean he'll veto almost any trade.

Sure, I imagine some teams would have interest in him, especially if the Angels paid down or included other players, but yeah, as you said, I think his NTC is gonna stop it all. 

It's not 0% though. The Dodgers, Padres, even Giants all sort of have a spot for him, just maybe not a true need. Being that they're in California and all have a good shot at a championship this year and next, he'd maybe waive it for a deal there.

[totdprods]

Anyone have any predictions for other trades that happen? 

Story and Gray to Oakland? Berrios or Hendricks + Kimbrel to Seattle?

[Angelsjunky]

The Twins' asking price for Berrios:

Indeed, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Mets are “very” interested but also had “sticker shock” when the Twins initially asked for a combination of two top-100 prospects and a young big leaguer. 

 

[Stradling]

I think the Padres end up with Scherzer or Berrios.  

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

The Twins' asking price for Berrios:

Indeed, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Mets are “very” interested but also had “sticker shock” when the Twins initially asked for a combination of two top-100 prospects and a young big leaguer. 

 

Sounds exactly like something Dipoto would do.

One of their young pitching and outfield prospects and someone from the MLB team. 

Wouldn't surprise me if they offered Kelenic or Rodriguez and tried to get Buxton or Kepler or Garver or Arraez or Gordon back too. 

Edited July 29, 2021 by totdprods

[Stradling]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the White Sox add to their pen.  Maybe Kimbrel. 

[Docwaukee]

I seriously doubt they'll trade Upton.  For me it's hard to imagine a team shelling out a hunk of dough for Justin even though he's been better.  He's pretty much a 1.5-2 WAR player due to his terrible defense.  So unless he can take some DH at bats...but that type of player should cost less than 18m per year (assuming we ate about 10m).  

Plus, wouldn't that be a pretty strong indicator that Arte is looking to stay tight within his budget again next year?  I know that's likely regardless of whether Upton could be moved or not, but I'm not ready for that to bum me out just yet.  

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

I seriously doubt they'll trade Upton.  For me it's hard to imagine a team shelling out a hunk of dough for Justin even though he's been better.  He's pretty much a 1.5-2 WAR player due to his terrible defense.  So unless he can take some DH at bats...but that type of player should cost less than 18m per year (assuming we ate about 10m).  

Plus, wouldn't that be a pretty strong indicator that Arte is looking to stay tight within his budget again next year?  I know that's likely regardless of whether Upton could be moved or not, but I'm not ready for that to bum me out just yet.  

You may say that I'm a dreamer,

but I'm not the only one.

We hope someday you will join us,

and Perry will get an Upton trade done.

[angelsnationtalk]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I think the Padres end up with Scherzer or Berrios.  

I'd say Scherzer. They need a guy that will anchor the rotation who's got the resume for the playoffs and that has Scherzer written all over it. But I also don't think they stop there either. 
They have had only two rotation pieces work well this season. Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove.... Snell, Paddack, Lamet and Weathers have either been extremely inconsistent, injured or just need the innings. 

They might be okay with a top 3 rotation in the playoffs, but it can be risky. 

After Scherzer they can still use a solid depth guy and some bullpen help. Could always use a good bullpen in the playoffs. 

Enter Alex Cobb and Raisel Iglesias. 

[Docwaukee]

48 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Sticking to what I suggested yesterday...they'll try to be busy (and it might) but I think...pretty much agree with you though.

• They'll trade Heaney and give his innings to Barria, Detmers, and/or Rodriguez (or a trade return).
• Set a very high price on Iglesias or Cobb - they might move them, they might not - but if they do, it'll probably be for something good.
• They'll add a reliever or two - maybe rental, likely not a big name. Low-key, under the radar types. 
• I think they do wind up dumping one of Bundy, Quintana, or even Watson or Cishek, maybe two together to a team buying real low
• They'll shop Adell/Marsh, Canning/CRod, maybe a SS prospect and young pitching prospect for an impact, controllable arm (plus another piece) but may not find a deal
• Also said I'd randomly like to see Carlos Santana added, and that was before Walsh was injured. I'd still like to see this, even if it's weird. 
   

I think you've also made a good point in the minor league thread about navigating the upcoming R5 eligible players along with your thought process here.  There are so many.  Which is why they shouldn't be reluctant to do some call ups and essentially have tryouts for the rest of the year.  

[Angelsjunky]

13 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Plus, wouldn't that be a pretty strong indicator that Arte is looking to stay tight within his budget again next year?  I know that's likely regardless of whether Upton could be moved or not, but I'm not ready for that to bum me out just yet.  

On a serious note, I think next year's projected free agent money ($40-50M) might be significantly lower, but not because Arte is cheap, rather because he might want to consider locking Ohtani up. He's a business man first and foremost, and Ohtani is a huge revenue generator. The Angels can probably structure a deal that includes a lower salary in 2022 to accommodate Upton's contract, but I do hope they consider trying to get this done in the offseason, rather than risk losing him to free agency after next year (which Ohtani might want to test, anyways).

But let's be honest: Chances are that this is Ohtani maximized, and we might not see this kind of perfect storm again. I do think there's room for improvement on the pitching side, but given the nature of two-way playing, he may not hit this well every year, or rather it may be more volatile, year to year. Plus, he's been super healthy. The point being, Ohtani might be open to a contract being reached this offseason, rather than risk waiting until after 2022. He knows--or his agent knows--that there's a chance he'll be an expensive DH/1B at some point in the future, so might recommend he sign sooner than later.

In other words, Minasian might have more like $30M to spend, so might have to either go with the starters he has and focus on the bullpen, or sign one good starter and budget shop for relievers, and/or rely on the farm and trades.

Edited July 29, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Docwaukee]

9 hours ago, mmc said:

 

not sure I've ever heard a player come out and say that the team has no shot and they should sell off.  Frankly, I think the players would understand if Minasian moved some pieces around.  

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I think you've also made a good point in the minor league thread about navigating the upcoming R5 eligible players along with your thought process here.  There are so many.  Which is why they shouldn't be reluctant to do some call ups and essentially have tryouts for the rest of the year.  

There's a ton of R5 guys on the position player side too...Stefanic, Knowles, Deveaux, Livan Soto, Lund, Orlando Martinez all will be eligible.

Some of the surprising minor league signings like Izzy Wilson, Jake Gatewood, Brendon Davis, Luis Aviles are R5 eligible too.

Obviously, all of those guys don't need to be added, but if you're worried they'll be R5 targets for another club and you'd like to retain them but don't intend to add them, why not try and turn them around for help this year? 

I'd imagine someone like Miami wouldn't mind dealing Richard Bleier off if they got two big lotto tickets like Brendon Davis and Trent Deveaux back, or turning Hector Yan and Cooper Criswell into someone like Caleb Thielbar or Luke Jackson. Helps the Angels clear up some of the fringe 40-man logjam.

Edited July 29, 2021 by totdprods

[angelsnationtalk]

7 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

On a serious note, I think next year's projected free agent money ($40-50M) might be significantly lower, but not because Arte is cheap, rather because he might want to consider locking Ohtani up. He's a business man first and foremost, and Ohtani is a huge revenue generator. The Angels can probably structure a deal that includes a lower salary in 2022 to accommodate Upton's contract, but I do hope they consider trying to get this done in the offseason, rather than risk losing him to free agency after next year (which Ohtani might want to test, anyways).

But let's be honest: Chances are that this is Ohtani maximized, and we might not see this kind of perfect storm again. I do think there's room for improvement on the pitching side, but given the nature of two-way playing, he may not hit this well every year, or rather it may be more volatile, year to year. Plus, he's been super healthy. The point being, Ohtani might be open to a contract being reached this offseason, rather than risk waiting until after 2022. He knows--or his agent knows--that there's a chance he'll be an expensive DH/1B at some point in the future, so might recommend he sign sooner than later.

In other words, Minasian might have more like $30M to spend, so might have to either go with the starters he has and focus on the bullpen, or sign one good starter and budget shop for relievers, and/or rely on the farm and trades.

Ohtani is set to make $5.5M next year after signing a 2yr deal. He's still arb-eligible for 2023. I'd say let the contract play out then sign him long term in Winter 2022. 

I don't see a rush for him. He probably wants to see us in contention first anyways. 

[Dtwncbad]

Are Angel fans willing to give up Adell to get Berrios?

What is the most aggressive package you would give up for Berrios?

Edited July 29, 2021 by Dtwncbad

[Stradling]

White Sox close to acquiring Cesar Hernandez. 

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Dtwncbad said:

Are Angel fans willing to give up Adell to get Berrios?

I wouldn’t. 

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Are Angel fans willing to give up Adell to get Berrios?

hell no.  

[angelsnationtalk]

2 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Are Angel fans willing to give up Adell to get Berrios?

What is the most aggressive package you would give up for Berrios?

Not for Berrios. 

Adell for any of those good Marlins arms, Mize, Gore and that's it. 

This you????? haha

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Are Angel fans willing to give up Adell to get Berrios?

I'd consider a straight 1 for 1, but not more than that, and only if some other deals were being made, such as Iglesias or Cobb landing an OF prospect, etc. 

Don't think Twins do Adell for Berrios straight up either.

[Angelsjunky]

7 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Ohtani is set to make $5.5M next year after signing a 2yr deal. He's still arb-eligible for 2023. I'd say let the contract play out then sign him long term in Winter 2022. 

I don't see a rush for him. He probably wants to see us in contention first anyways. 

Oh, you're right - for some reason I keep thinking he's a free agent in 2023. My bad.

[tdawg87]

12 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Are Angel fans willing to give up Adell to get Berrios?

Nope. Not even 1 for 1. 

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

Predictions

-Mad Max to SF, Berrios to LA or Seattle.