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1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

At this second — even after the last 3 games — Angels starters have a 4.99 ERA and relievers have a 4.92 ERA.

They’ve both been bad. So the notion that the Angels need to trust “the starters” more and “the relievers” less is faulty. 
 

(Also, the best pitcher is Ohtani, who has about a 2.60 ERA, so the ERA of all the other starters is well above 5. And if you want to blame that on inherited runners, that happens when the manager leaves the starter in to see what happens and then has to pull him after he gives up some baserunners.)
 

They need to look at each specific situation and determine who is best to get them through it.

What I'm saying as a frustrated Angel fan things need to change. This is not a playoff team and I'd like to see young pitchers develop. I'd put Barria and Suarez in rotation now. Have Ohtani, Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, Barria and Heaney. When Heaney is traded bring up Detmers.  Bundy, Cobb, Quintana and Heaney will not be here in 22 or maybe past July 30. What direction is this team going? This upcoming off season I hope they do not throw 100 mill or more at some starter. If I was Artie I would take the route Tampa takes and cut payroll. You have Walsh, Fletcher, Ward, Rengifo, plus others at AAA. You have young starters to build around. Oh I forgot about Chris Rod as starter or bullpen piece. You have Rendon, Trout and Upton with big contracts. Upton only 1 year but if you could trade any of these contracts I would. I have no idea what Trout could bring back. Again it's a frustrated fan watching his team lose without a plan. I know Minasian is not going to tell halo fans his plan but this team is not on the cusp of winning. I fell for this non sense last winter. Tampa payroll 68 mill and Moreno paying Albert 30 mill to get ring with Dodgers. Things with halos not working I'd like to see changes even drastic changes. This also is what makes baseball interesting because of the  many different opinions.

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1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

At this second — even after the last 3 games — Angels starters have a 4.99 ERA and relievers have a 4.92 ERA.

They’ve both been bad. So the notion that the Angels need to trust “the starters” more and “the relievers” less is faulty. 

Meh, haven't looked lately but the starters FIP was around 4.11 and the RPs were around 4.60 when last I looked...  SP SIERRA, was under 4.00.

Defense has been bad regardless of SP/RP but the starters have been dinged more.

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15 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

What I'm saying as a frustrated Angel fan things need to change.

I get that. I am not saying you should be happy or that things are going well. I know you’re all frustrated  

I’m only pointing out that the reasons they lose aren’t necessarily what you think. 

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Man, just looked up that Angels' SP FIP-

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=al&qual=0&type=1&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=14,a

Good luck telling/convincing people that the Angels rotation has been the 6th best in the AL when you account for park effects and defense.

It's 5th best using SIERRA.

Pen ranks 12th in the AL in both categories.

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11 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Man, just looked up that Angels' SP FIP-

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=al&qual=0&type=1&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=14,a

Good luck telling/convincing people that the Angels rotation has been the 6th best in the AL when you account for park effects and defense.

It's 5th best using SIERRA.

Pen ranks 12th in the AL in both categories.

In other words, the ball is coming out of their hand well?

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9 minutes ago, Angels Fan Forever said:

Angels SP's rank

15th in BB%,

11th in WHIP,

9th in HR/9,

9th in K/BB,

14th in LOB%

They are not good...

Are they 9th worst in HR and K/BB? Or 9th best?

That's also a very nice cherry picking you have there.

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10 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Is that in the AL or MLB?

I agree.

3 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

At this second — even after the last 3 games — Angels starters have a 4.99 ERA and relievers have a 4.92 ERA.

They’ve both been bad. So the notion that the Angels need to trust “the starters” more and “the relievers” less is faulty. 
 

(Also, the best pitcher is Ohtani, who has about a 2.60 ERA, so the ERA of all the other starters is well above 5. And if you want to blame that on inherited runners, that happens when the manager leaves the starter in to see what happens and then has to pull him after he gives up some baserunners.)
 

They need to look at each specific situation and determine who is best to get them through it.

Yes i agree. again.

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30 minutes ago, Angels Fan Forever said:

Those are AL ranks from the Fangraphs spreadsheet IP sent.

Ummm

Pretty much all of the numbers you're focusing on are factored into FIP- and SIERRA as are all the ones that you chose to leave out because they didn't suit the narrative..   

Also, LOB% isn't even entirely a measure of SPs because it also includes runs allowed to score after they exited the game.

The BB/9 has been an issue for them, no question and while they get to wear that, some of it has been Suzuki.   Thing is...  were the BB/9 better then the Angels SPs wouldn't be ranked 5 or 6th best using predictive data, they'd be top 3 and thats entirely because of the things they have done well.

Lastly..  you can point to HR/9, but there is this..  https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor
  
Angel Stadium has played extremely hitter (HR) friendly.

As always, individual stats tell one part of the story, the data that takes all the data and projects it forward tends to give is the most well rounded view.

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22 minutes ago, Angels Fan Forever said:

I'm not cherry picking, I just looked at other KPI's from the Fangraphs sheet.

Do you think our SP's are performing at a top level in the AL.

They are not good so far this season...

You 100% cherry picked.   

You chose to gloss over the data that takes ALL of the stats in favor of individual ranks that while accurate are in some cased devoid of context.  The one absolutely true argument you could make is that Angels SPs have walked too many people and it's been dragging them down all year.   WHIP, K/BB are all being impacted by how poor a job they have done limiting free passes.

But as I said in my previous response.  If they had been better at that, then they'd be a top 3 unit.

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17 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Ummm

Pretty much all of the numbers you're focusing on are factored into FIP- and SIERRA as are all the ones that you chose to leave out because they didn't suit the narrative..   

Also, LOB% isn't even a measure of SPs but rather an indication of how well the pitchers that relieved them did.

The BB/9 has been an issue for them, no question and while they get to wear that, some of it has been Suzuki.   Thing is...  were the BB/9 better then the Angels SPs wouldn't be ranked 5 or 6th best using predictive data, they'd be top 3 and thats entirely because of the things they have done well.

Lastly..  you can point to HR/9, but there is this..  https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor
  
Angel Stadium has played extremely hitter (HR) friendly.\

As always, individual stats tell one part of the story, the data that takes all the data and projects it forward tends to give is the most well rounded view.

I can agree with all of that I guess. I obviously don't know the stats like you do. I just don't feel like we have the 6th best staff in the AL so I looked at other categories.

Do you?

And they only play half their games at the Big A so HR/9 is equalized, right? - BB% is not.

They need to do better, they need to be better. That's the Fan in me talking - Let's hope Cobb pitches well tonight.

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20 minutes ago, Angels Fan Forever said:

I can agree with all of that. I obviously don't know the stats like you do. I just don't feel like we have the 6th best staff in the AL so I looked at other categories.

Do you?

Do I what?  Believe they are better than the raw data indicates?  Absolutely.   

I've been railing about the defense all year.   It's not like I came to that conclusion without reason, the defense failed the eye test and pretty much every defensive measure pretty much leads to the same conclusion.

When push comes to shove it doesn't really matter what I believe, the data is what it is.  You'd make a better point by trying to argue predictive data is theoretical and thus can't be taken as gospel.

20 minutes ago, Angels Fan Forever said:

And they only play half their games at the Big A so HR/9 is equalized - BB% is not.

That's not how it works...  Not even close.   If a team plays 50% of their games in a park that inflates HR rate by 50% the only way to perfectly equalize that would be to have all the other games come in parks that deflate HRs by 50%.   Angel Stadium HR index is sitting at 1.417

I don't mean this as a personal slam because you're making a very common mistake.  People really seem to struggle with park data and how those numbers impact the overall data. Raw stats in general tell us what, but leave a lot of the why out.  The why is often pretty important.

BTW, I got nothing but praise for anyone trying to look at the numbers and attempting to back their opinions with them.  Don't stop doing it.

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11 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

If a team plays 50% of their games in a park that inflates HR rate by 50% the only way to perfectly equalize that would be to have all the other games come in parks that deflate HRs by 50%.   

But if the home team has a staff that just gives up a lot of HR's wouldn't that inflate the HR numbers for that stadium? Or. If the home team has an offense that just hits a lot of HR's wouldn't that also inflate the #'s for that home stadium?

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30 minutes ago, Angels Fan Forever said:

But if the home team has a staff that just gives up a lot of HR's wouldn't that inflate the HR numbers for that stadium? 

If it was that simple, wouldn't they also give up a ton of HRs on the road? 

Angels SPs have put up a HR/9 of 1.39 at home .vs 1.22 away.
Meanwhile Angels hitters have hit 57 HRs at home .vs 32 on the road.  If it was just Angels pitchers sucking ass how is it the Angels hitters are pissing all over the marine layer?

League data isn't just based on one team.  It takes the info for all those guys, compares how they do home and everywhere else.  They do this for every pitcher in MLB then compares those guys to everyone else and how they do home and away and in every ballpark.  They have to measure out every player in every park and how they do in EACH park because they don't all share the same AWAY schedules.

League/Park neutralized data exists so players can be more easily be compared regardless of the park noise.

Also, because you did take the time to look at the numbers you did check these out.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=20,a

Same exact data only now it includes all of MLB and not just the AL.   It really goes a long ways towards showing how big an issue the free passes have been.  

 

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