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Relief Pitching- How do you guess right?


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This really isn’t about the Angels, but of course it kind of is.  

The top names on the free agent market for relief pitchers were Hendricks, Yates, Rosenthal and Hand.  

Hendricks has pitched 14 games is trending in the right direction, but has given up runs in 6 of his 14 outings, has a loss and two blown saves.  If the Angels signed him we would be in a better place, but not a single one of us would be happy with his performance.

Yates, out for the year.

Rosenthal hasn’t pitched yet.

Hand is trending in the wrong direction giving up runs in 4 of his last 5 outings.  He got off to the best start after every single major league team passed on him when he went through waivers.  

So how do you guess right?  

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Part of me likes to think there are guys in an office studying custom spreadsheets with formulas they've developed to determine which relief pitchers are undervalued. Basically like Jonah Hill in Moneyball

But a larger part of me thinks it's just pure luck. 

BTW Strad, I absolutely loved this line: "If the Angels signed him we would be in a better place, but not a single one of us would be happy with his performance."

A fitting epitaph for the 2021 Angels (so far.. which I guess means it's not an epitaph). 

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If any of us really knew the answer, we'd be in the front office of some MLB team.

Relievers are in that role for a reason... they don't have enough plus pitches to be starters.  Finding guys who have electric stuff for just one pitch is hard to do. Mariano Rivera only had to throw his cutter because it was wicked.  Those guys are rare. 

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This all goes back to a pathetically weak farm system and lack of pitcher development by the Organization.  RPs are built from within the bottom up.  An occasional outside piece can work out and be added.  But trying to build a whole relief staff from outside is a receipt for disaster -- especially doing so year after year.  The Angels won't have a consistent RP staff until they can be competent with their farm system in drafting (& signing int'l Ps) and developing those pitchers.  

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5 minutes ago, Fourts said:

This all goes back to a pathetically weak farm system and lack of pitcher development by the Organization.  RPs are built from within the bottom up.  An occasional outside piece can work out and be added.  But trying to build a whole relief staff from outside is a receipt for disaster -- especially doing so year after year.  The Angels won't have a consistent RP staff until they can be competent with their farm system in drafting (& signing int'l Ps) and developing those pitchers.  

I agree, but back to the question.  How do you guess right with free agency relief pitching?  

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14 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

I agree and my first pick was Petit. I pushed for him because he has had 5 good years in a row. I along with most on AW pushed for many losers after. 

Yes and the rest of your suggestions were Yates, Rosenthal and Odorizzi.  So...

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Retreads, has beens and never were relievers are time bombs waiting to go off. You need to find young, lively arms and develop them properly. Physically and mentally.  Pitchers perhaps without the stamina or repertoire to be starters, but have control and a specialized out pitch to get through a few innings or hitters. 

In the past relievers were often former starters who weren't good enough to be in the rotation. There were very few specialized closers till the late fifties when Elroy Face and Hoyt Wilhelm began appearing in multiple save situations regularly. Wilhelm's specialty pitch was the knuckleball. I forget what Face relied on, but think it was a sinker or slider. The real coming of age for closers was when Mike Marshall won the Cy Young in 1974 with the Dodgers though he was actually better in 1973 with the Expos. His out pitch was the screwball. Tough on the arm, but Marshall had a scientific approach to pitching. He later became a university professor of kinesiology. Since the seventies there have been hundreds of great relievers. 

The Angels need both better scouting for trade options and coaching/development in the minor leagues. A former reliever perhaps who can identify talent and work on the physical and mental sides of coaching.

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Seeing that Eppler drafted a ton of college pitching in rounds 3 and up while he was here, hard to believe not one of them (that I know of) has developed into a major league reliever, or is on the cusp of being a major league reliever.  Seems like when you have that many possibilities, one or two would have worked out.

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24 minutes ago, ADHB said:

Seeing that Eppler drafted a ton of college pitching in rounds 3 and up while he was here, hard to believe not one of them (that I know of) has developed into a major league reliever, or is on the cusp of being a major league reliever.  Seems like when you have that many possibilities, one or two would have worked out.

Some were traded away.

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1 hour ago, ADHB said:

Seeing that Eppler drafted a ton of college pitching in rounds 3 and up while he was here, hard to believe not one of them (that I know of) has developed into a major league reliever, or is on the cusp of being a major league reliever.  Seems like when you have that many possibilities, one or two would have worked out.

The first wave of those arms had an ETA of 2020-2021. We're starting to see some of them creep into MLB bullpens such as Isaac Mattson and Jeremy Beasley types. 

Andrew Wantz, Denny Brady and Austin Warren are probably the closest in-house still with the org. Those guys move quick too and if we wind up being sellers, could see a lot of new arms here in Aug/Sept.

The fact that Eppler tended to hold college arms out from pro ball their first year after being drafted and the pandemic cancelling minors last year really did a number on that depth, as did the trades for Iglesias and Bundy.

Edited by totdprods
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