The elephant in the room...

[DCAngelsFan]

6 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

If the pitcher is inducing ground balls and getting K's he's doing what he has control over.   

I may be reading you wrong but you are possibly mistaking my questioning why they aren't on the same page as doublespeak, it's not.  The problem is that whoever is responsible for how they are setting up and whoever is responsible for how the defense is set up AREN'T on the same page..   

The defense has far and away been worse than the pitching.

K/9 - 1st -- the gap for just SPs is even bigger https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=8,d
GB% - 3rd
BaBip allowed 30th
DRS (defensive runs saved) 30th
Def - 10.1, 29th

A rotation ERA of 5.54 .vs an FIP of  3.83 is just laughably hard to believe is actually happening.   Quintana recorded 9 of 11 outs two days ago on his own while giving up a .717 batting average on balls made contact on.   It's unreal.

Too often, I think I've seen what you describe - where it seems the defense isn't positioned in a way that works to the way the batter is being pitched.  

But that ugly walk rate might suggest that it might simply being the starters failing to execute the plan b/c of lack of command.

If it were down to mis-positioning, it seems that it would translate to the relievers as well - but the split in relievers isn't as bad 4.00 vs. 4.47 - I mean, still not great.

I dunno - that ERA vs FIP spread *is* hilariously awful, the DRS is worse, and the BABIP is merely bad by comparison - and I don't know what to make of it all.  

Parenthetically - Upton's defense - whether due to positioning or in his range  - or both - has been pretty poor to my eye, and I think the stats bear that out.

Marsh can't get here soon enough.  

[Inside Pitch]

7 minutes ago, DCAngelsFan said:

I dunno - that ERA vs FIP spread *is* hilariously awful, the DRS is worse, and the BABIP is merely bad by comparison - and I don't know what to make of it all.  

It's bonkers ... and it kills me bc the data is essentially screaming at the top of its lungs that its all a fluke and regression towards the mean is coming yet it feels like the exact opposite is happening.  The Babip issues are unreal and its funny in part because a .320 figure in a normal year isn't terribly out of line, the issue is this year the average Babip was closer to .275 the last time I looked which makes that .320 hilariously fluky.

[Docwaukee]

14 minutes ago, DCAngelsFan said:

Too often, I think I've seen what you describe - where it seems the defense isn't positioned in a way that works to the way the batter is being pitched.  

But that ugly walk rate might suggest that it might simply being the starters failing to execute the plan b/c of lack of command.

If it were down to mis-positioning, it seems that it would translate to the relievers as well - but the split in relievers isn't as bad 4.00 vs. 4.47 - I mean, still not great.

I dunno - that ERA vs FIP spread *is* hilariously awful, the DRS is worse, and the BABIP is merely bad by comparison - and I don't know what to make of it all.  

Parenthetically - Upton's defense - whether due to positioning or in his range  - or both - has been pretty poor to my eye, and I think the stats bear that out.

Marsh can't get here soon enough.  

don't expect much from Marsh.  He's a rookie who hasn't had a single at bat in AAA and he hasn't played a pro game in over a year other than in spring.  

the walk rate is ugly but not absurd like it explains the defense.  COL, CHC, KCR, DET all have bad pitching and ahead of us in walk rate.  Why isn't as bad for them?

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

It's bonkers ... and it kills me bc the data is essentially screaming at the top of its lungs that its all a fluke and regression towards the mean is coming yet it feels like the exact opposite is happening.  The Babip issues are unreal and its funny in part because a .320 figure in a normal year isn't terribly out of line, the issue is this year the average Babip was closer to .275 the last time I looked which makes that .320 hilariously fluky.

because it's not a fluke.  

[Inside Pitch]

Just now, Dochalo said:

because it's not a fluke.  

This is what I can't shake.  It just seems outside of what can be put on random chance. 

I fully admit I may he guilty of looking for a cause because the data is so overwhelmingly crazy, but watching it happen in real time while having the data open and in front of me makes it so very difficult for me to dismiss.

I've said it many times before, I got into stats because I wanted to prove what I was seeing was real, this is one of those times where the eye test isn't making me question the data, so much as it is the processes creating the data.

Its frustrating.  

[Inside Pitch]

9 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

don't expect much from Marsh.  He's a rookie who hasn't had a single at bat in AAA and he hasn't played a pro game in over a year other than in spring.  

the walk rate is ugly but not absurd like it explains the defense.  COL, CHC, KCR, DET all have bad pitching and ahead of us in walk rate.  Why isn't as bad for them?

Its also a chicken and egg argument... Is the bad defense leading to an up tick in free passes by virtue of player frustration or them trying to be too fine...  For some its just been bad command (Quintana), but I really don't know how to read it

[Mark PT]

On 5/4/2021 at 11:48 AM, rageous said:

I don't have a big problem with Maddon but I am worried about his loyalty to Quintana. 

He keeps bringing up how good he used to be when he managed the Cubs but his lack of control seems to be a continuing issue on the year.

Angels need to pull him out of the rotation before its too late.  Its just too many games they are giving away by starting Quintana over and over.

Its too late, by May's end, 10 games below .500

[DCAngelsFan]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

don't expect much from Marsh.  He's a rookie who hasn't had a single at bat in AAA and he hasn't played a pro game in over a year other than in spring.  

the walk rate is ugly but not absurd like it explains the defense.  COL, CHC, KCR, DET all have bad pitching and ahead of us in walk rate.  Why isn't as bad for them?

Oh, no - I don't even care if he hits - just looking to improve that LF defense.

I'm exaggerating a bit, I suppose - Upton's defense is far from the only problem -  but for a team that was supposed to be built for "run prevention", I'm just looking for something to blame.

I think the walk rate is exacerbated by poor defense, at least in terms of yielding runs.  More pitches, more baserunners, the opposition is simply more likely to score (after all, the ERA rate is terrible before even considering errors and unearned runs.)   I can't really characterize the pitching - I've seen sequences that remind me of CJ - get ahead 0-2, and then nibble, nibble, nibble, oh, he walked him.  Or grooving a meatball in the middle of the plate on that same 0-2 count.  I do get the feeling that sometimes the pitchers are trying to be too fine - either not trusting their stuff, or trusting their team to execute behind them, or to score any runs.   Everyone's trying for the strikeout, and doesn't seem like they're pitching to contact.  

And I'm probably imagining it, but all those pitches, all those long innings, the energy just seems to go out of this team like a leaky balloon. 

Or maybe that's just "me" and my energy and interest level?