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This team...


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Trade deadline could be very interesting. If around 500 and chance of playoffs do you buy or sell? Many trade chips in Bundy, Heaney, Quintana, Cobb plus bullpen pieces Mayers, Watson, Iglesias. Maybe trade for a big bat in Joey Gallo. After 5 losing seasons and seeing low budget teams like Rays and Oakland always winning it's hard to take.

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12 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

There's always an excuse. Good teams find a way to win, mainly through having depth. Our depth has sucked, partially because of the Rojas Experiment, and generallly because the second level players are all very mediocre.

That should change come June once the minor league season is well under way and guys down there have gotten 100+ PA, but it might be too late by then.

Bingo 100%.  Top heavy team -- it's been that way for years now.  Everything needs to go right (injuries, lucky, etc.) for a team like that to succeed.  Especially so in a full 162 game season.  Rarely happens.  Cream rises.  Depth is the #1 problem for this team and the organization.  Whether that be big league players graduating to the team from minors, stars arriving, simply league average guys or just guys who are not league average but can not cuss-the-bed for the occasions games/ABs they get due to injuries, etc.  It's slowly changing (i think/hope)...but still a ways to go.  

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14 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Jaden Hill maybe?  Pitched just 10 innings his freshman year at LSU, and of course 2020 season was cut shirt for every one.

Yep I think that's him. I remember seeing him on several mock draft lists for the Halos--and I think you may have even mentioned hoping the Angels would draft him.

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5 hours ago, CanadianHalo said:

This team isn’t good. Good teams don’t lose 2/3 to KC and Texas. Especially Texas.

Good teams go through bad stretches. The Astro's were swept by the lowly Tigers and Rockies and lost 2/3 to the Mariners. Does that make the Astros a bad team? 

The Angels were playing great ball at the start. Then we lost Rendon, Stassi, (SP) Ohtani, Lagares, and Fowler all within a week of each other and it started to catch up to us. On top of that the schedule was flipped on its head with weather and COVID postponements. I realize these are excuses but it's ignorant to think that these conditions hasn't had an impact on the record over the last couple weeks. 

I still believe this is an 85+ win team. With some good health and some savvy trade deadline deals, we will make a run for a postseason spot. 

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3 hours ago, Stradling said:

So @Inside Pitch if a teams FIP is 1.3 runs lower than its ERA is it simply bad defense and bad luck?

I'm not IP, but yes. FIP is, essentially, what a pitcher's ERA "should" have been, with average defense and luck. Meaning, it is what they can control: walks, strikeouts, home runs, hit by pitches, wild pitches. It basically minimizes the nature of fluctuating BABIP (balls in play). In other words, it equalizes BABIP to neutral (league average).

That said, FIP doesn't account well (if at all) for "pitchability" - intangible things the pitcher does to adjust and work within the context he's playing in, and perhaps his ability to reduce quality contact. Pitchers with consistently higher FIP than ERA aren't just guys with good defenses behind them, but also guys like Jered Weaver and Greg Maddux who have intangible factors that can't be easily quantified statistically.

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People are freaking out a little to much. 

This team isn't as bad as  people are assuming it to be. We've hit a rough patch, thanks to a weather delay, Covid related delay and than we've had a few injuries. 

You have teams like the Braves, Shanks (Fuck them), Cards at the bottome of their division. It's early anything can happen. 

Regarding our Pitching; 

I actually think that it's better than what people are assuming it to be.

we're 12 th in all of MLb, with an ERA of 4.89, but FIp and xFip suggest that we're much better than our ERA, our Fip is 3.61 and xfip is 3.67. You can say bad defense or bad luck but its a good staff. 

If we look more in detail our staters have an ERa of 5.29, but an Fip of 3.54 and an xFIp of 3.39. That high ERA can be caused by the two bad starts by Quintana, one by heaney, and than Cobb yesterday.

For the Bullpen, the numbers are a bit more higher but have a similar pattern.  For Bullpen, we can blame that on poor mangement by Maddon. 

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1 hour ago, Tony Two Bags said:

Good teams go through bad stretches. The Astro's were swept by the lowly Tigers and Rockies and lost 2/3 to the Mariners. Does that make the Astros a bad team? 

The Angels were playing great ball at the start. Then we lost Rendon, Stassi, (SP) Ohtani, Lagares, and Fowler all within a week of each other and it started to catch up to us. On top of that the schedule was flipped on its head with weather and COVID postponements. I realize these are excuses but it's ignorant to think that these conditions hasn't had an impact on the record over the last couple weeks. 

I still believe this is an 85+ win team. With some good health and some savvy trade deadline deals, we will make a run for a postseason spot. 

This is correct and the Angels do not have the depth to keep themselves afloat. Injuries are part of the game and there will be more of them throughout this season. If they do not upgrade their bench during the season then they will be a .500 team at best. 

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6 hours ago, Stradling said:

So @Inside Pitch if a teams FIP is 1.3 runs lower than its ERA is it simply bad defense and bad luck?

Depends on the other data, but yes.... Mostly.   Cobb last night had a BaBip allowed of nearly .700.  None of the hits he gave up had an exit velocity above 83 Mph, and only one was over 80.  He got Quintana-ed, to death.

The Angels defense has had spurts of shittiness, but outside of Canning, the rotation has been a lot better than its ERA.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=1&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=6,d

Ohtani gets dinged cause of all the walks but I doubt anyone is worried about him.

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2 hours ago, Tony Two Bags said:

Good teams go through bad stretches. The Astro's were swept by the lowly Tigers and Rockies and lost 2/3 to the Mariners. Does that make the Astros a bad team? 

The Angels were playing great ball at the start. Then we lost Rendon, Stassi, (SP) Ohtani, Lagares, and Fowler all within a week of each other and it started to catch up to us. On top of that the schedule was flipped on its head with weather and COVID postponements. I realize these are excuses but it's ignorant to think that these conditions hasn't had an impact on the record over the last couple weeks. 

I still believe this is an 85+ win team. With some good health and some savvy trade deadline deals, we will make a run for a postseason spot. 

This! 

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Yes, it is an 85+ win team. I think the problem is that for a bit there, when they were 7-3, some of us got greedy and started thinking 95 wins.

Those starter ERA are going down, although at this point I'm thinking we need to recalibrate to Bundy being a #3, not the #2 that some hoped he had turned into. Cobb, Quintana, and Heaney are all #3-4s, and Canning is still TBD, although so far hasn't looked like he has taken the step forward we are hoping for. 

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Just now, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, it is an 85+ win team. I think the problem is that for a bit there, when they were 7-3, some of us got greedy and started thinking 95 wins.

Those starter ERA are going down, although at this point I'm thinking we need to recalibrate to Bundy being a #3, not the #2 that some hoped he had turned into. Cobb, Quintana, and Heaney are all #3-4s, and Canning is still TBD, although so far hasn't looked like he has taken the step forward we are hoping for. 

Trout just got pulled from the lineup. You need to self-ban.

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