Jump to content
  • Welcome to AngelsWin.com

    AngelsWin.com - THE Internet Home for Angels fans! Unraveling Angels Baseball ... One Thread at a Time.

    Register today to join the most interactive online Angels community on the net!

    Once you're a member you'll see less advertisements. Become a Premium member and you won't see any ads! 

     

IGNORED

AngelsWin.com Today: Mike Trout and the 8 WAR Season


Recommended Posts

190319-mike-trout-angels-cs-113p_882d7005b7c4941cca7ff0cb791a4c2d.fit-760w.jpg

By @Angelsjunky, AngelsWin.com Contributor

I like to find new angles on the greatness of Mike Trout - not hard to do, but always satisfying. Here's something tasty for your enjoyment. I'm going to be focusing on 8 WAR seasons. Why 8 WAR? Well, it represents a level beyond just garden variety superstardom. Generally speaking, 8 WAR is either a career year for a superstar or a good peak year for an inner circle Hall of Famer. In other words, it is a good benchmark for a truly great season.

What is 8 WAR? 

As you can read here, below 2 WAR are bench players and scrubs; from 2-4 WAR is the range from solid to good regulars; and 4 and above are various shades of stardom, from borderline stars to MVP candidates. In any given year, the best player in the game is somewhere around 8 WAR or higher; only rarely is the leader below 8 WAR, with the last two both from Jeff Bagwell with 7.8 WAR, in 1999 and 1994. 

In most years there are two or three players with an 8 WAR or higher; some years less (or none), and some more (the most 8 WAR players in a single year was six, which happened three times: in 1912, 1961, and 1997). The point being, with an average of two or three a year, an 8 WAR player is a candidate for the best player in the game and a possible MVP. 

It is also worth pointing out that WAR is less volatile than it used to be, with fewer high outliers. If we ignore Barry Bonds for a moment, the last position player to reach 11 WAR was Joe Morgan in 1975, which also happened to be the only position player season over 10 WAR in the 1970s. Including Bonds, from 1970 to the present there have only been thirteen 10 WAR seasons: five by Bonds (including one pre-roids in 1993 when he had 10.5), two by Trout, one each by Joe Morgan, Cal Ripken, Rickey Henderson, Alex Rodriguez, Buster Posey, and Mookie Betts.

Meaning, super-high WAR seasons (above 10) are very rare, occurring--on average--only once every four years or so over the last half century.

In 119 years of the two leagues (1901-2019) there have been 266 position player seasons of 8 WAR or above, or a little over two per year. Again, this averages out to a little over two a season.

Active Players

Among all currently active players, there have been 21 8 WAR seasons by the following players, in order of highest WAR: Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Buster Posey, Albert Pujols, Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, Miguel Cabrera, Aaron Judge, Jose Ramirez, and Andrew McCutchen. Other than Trout, the only players to have more than one such season are Betts with two and Pujols with four. And Mike Trout? He's got seven. 

Meaning, Trout's got as many truly great seasons (as defined by 8 WAR) as any three of his peers combined. What does that mean, in historical context? Let's take a look.

The Club of Seven (8 WAR Seasons)

Mike Trout had his seventh 8 WAR season in 2019 at the age of 27, when he tied with Alex Bregman for the major league lead with 8.5. It was the sixth highest WAR of his eight full seasons, with only 2014 (8.3) and his injury-shortened 2017 (6.8) being lower.

In baseball history, there are only nine players--including Trout--with seven or more 8 WAR seasons in their entire career. OK, take a breath. Consider how crazy that is, given that Trout is only 29 years old (and possibly would have had his 8th such season last year).

Here are the leaders in numbers of 8+ WAR seasons:

11: Babe Ruth, Willie Mays

10: Barry Bonds

9: Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig

8: Honus Wagner, Ted Williams

7: Eddie Collins, Mike Trout

No one else--including inner circle Hall of Famers like Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Jimmie Foxx, Stan Musial, Mickey Mantle, Hank Aaron, and Alex Rodriguez--have more than six. Meaning, everyone but the seven players who are as good a septad of the greatest to ever play the game (although I would include Cobb, Aaron, and either Musial or Mantle to make it a rounded ten).

Now here is where it gets even crazier (yes, it gets crazier). Trout is way ahead of everyone else's pace for adding up 8 WAR seasons. Here is when each player listed above had their 7th such season:

  • Ruth: 14th season, age 32
  • Mays: 11th season, age 31
  • Bonds: 16th season, age 36
  • Hornsby: 13th season, age 31
  • Gehrig: 13th season, age 32
  • Wagner: 13th season, age 35
  • Williams: 13th season, age 35
  • Collins: 15th season, age 33
  • Trout: 9th season, age 27

To be fair, some of those players were delayed due to various circumstances. Ruth wasn't a full-time position player until his sixth season when he had 9.4 WAR in 1919 at age 24, ushering in the home run era. Chances are he would have had two or three by then if he had been a position player all along, and reached his seventh a few years earlier than he did. Williams lost three years in a row due to WWII at the age of 24-26, with two 11+ WAR seasons and two 10+ seasons bookending that gap. He almost certainly would have had his seventh 8 WAR season by 1947 or '48 at age 28 or 29. But even so, not even Ruth or Williams would have reached their seventh 8 WAR season by age 27.

Trout did. No one else has. 

Trout will eventually slow down. Yet he has established a baseline of about 9 WAR per season or even higher, so even if he slows by a half step he should have--at least--two or three more 8 WAR seasons, and maybe more. As of this writing (through April 21) he's at 1.6 WAR through his first 16 games--that's double the pace he needs to reach 8 WAR this year.

What this means is that Trout has a legitimate shot at having more truly great (8 WAR) seasons than any other position player in history. Or, at the least, he probably has better than even odds in joining the "ten or more club" with arguably the three greatest position players in baseball history: Ruth, Mays, and Bonds (I would add Williams as of similar caliber, but as mentioned, he lost almost five years to military service, reducing what would have made him one of only three 160+ WAR players, to "only" 130.4, which is still 8th all-time).

But Wait...What About 9 WAR Seasons?

I've written about this before but think that 8 WAR is a better benchmark, because differences beyond that point are more due to era and occasional extraordinary performance than sustained greatness. That said, Trout is still among the best of the best. Ruth has the most with 10, followed by Hornsby (9), Bonds (8), Mays (7); Wagner, Cobb, Gehrig and Williams (6 each); A-Rod and Trout are next with 5 each.

Meaning, he's one of only ten players in major league history with five or more 9 WAR seasons. If we go back to our active players, he has one more than everyone else combined (Betts, Posey, Pujols, and Harper with one each).

If Trout manages to have two more 9 WAR seasons, he'll be one of only five with seven or more. At that point, the only players with more would be Ruth and Hornsby--both of whom played in a very different era with only eight teams per league and more outlying statistics, and Bonds, half of whose 9 WAR seasons were clearly augmented (Bonds' greatness shouldn't be understated; consider that he accumulated 99.2 WAR through 1998 at age 33, before he "allegedly" started juicing, and even without steroids he likely would have gone down as one of the top 10 or so greatest ballplayers ever).

Conclusion

The numbers speak for themselves, and we all know Trout is great--not only the greatest player of his generation, but also one of the greatest in baseball history. Within the month of May he's going to enter the top 40 for career WAR, and has a chance at the top 30 by the end of the year.

What these statistics--the 8 WAR club--illustrate is what makes him one of the very best of all time: that he not only has reached extreme heights, but has done so with remarkable consistency. His level never drops, or when it does it is "all the way down" to the 8 to 8.5 WAR level, which is about the level of Hank Aaron's best seasons.

At still only 29 this year, he has a real chance of compiling the needed five more 8 WAR seasons to stand above everyone else, with more truly great seasons than anyone in baseball history.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • AngelsWin.com changed the title to AngelsWin.com Today: Mike Trout and the 8 WAR Season

Ooh, that's some nice content. Brilliant stuff.

One other amazing thing to add about Trout is that all that otherworldly super-stardom is wrapped up in such a totally nice bloke. The time he gives to kids is really quite inspiring and I love the way he tries to do it privately and not for the cameras. He's a classy, humble guy with real integrity - we're lucky to have him.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Funny how I always notice little grammatical and spelling errors after publishing. Oh well.

One further thought, to compound the last point: Trout's "low range" of performance is about the same as Hank Aaron's high range. He hasn't quite had the high range of Mantle, but when you account for era conversion, I think he's similar, and Mantle at his very best was as good as anyone has ever been. So you've got the upside of Mantle and the consistency of Aaron. Oh wait, that's Willie Mays.

 

I think there is a good point to be made about the variance in player performance compared to the league. Trout has been consistently elite but he hasn't quit been able to match the highest highs of some of the all time great players and I think that speaks more to the talent level in the league than anything else. Single data points well beyond the mean are very often reflective of external factors that do not repeat themselves... good weather, stadium quirks, sign stealing schemes, juiced balls, etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@AngelsjunkyGreat piece of work there.  Loved to read it and I feel privileged to have been around to see Mike Trout play in person.  He is a once in a generational talent, and what makes him even more of a special player is how he interacts with the fans at Angel Stadium.  He does not seem to view himself as "bigger than the game" and from what I've been told by people who know him, he's a really awesome person.  

Now, if his team can just help him get to the post season and win some post season games and eliminate that narrative about him, his legacy can be more solidified than it already has.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I think there is a good point to be made about the variance in player performance compared to the league. Trout has been consistently elite but he hasn't quit been able to match the highest highs of some of the all time great players and I think that speaks more to the talent level in the league than anything else. Single data points well beyond the mean are very often reflective of external factors that do not repeat themselves... good weather, stadium quirks, sign stealing schemes, juiced balls, etc.

Yes. The number of outliers (meaning, above 11 WAR) peaked in the 20s with those outlandish Ruth seasons, plus a few from Hornsby and Gehrig, then falls after. Or check this out:

11 WAR Seasons By Decade

1900s: 1 (Honus Wagner)

1910s: (Ty Cobb x2)

1920s: (Babe Ruth x6, Rogers Hornsby x3, Lou Gehrig)

1930s: (Jimmie Foxx)

1940s: (Ted Williams x3, Stan Musial)

1950s: (Mickey Mantle x2)

1960s: (Yaz)

1970s: (Joe Morgan)

1980s: 0

1990s: 0

2000s: (Barry Bonds x2)

2010s: 0

Ruth is deservedly considered the GOAT, but had some truly outlandish WAR totals in the 20s, the only player with a 13 WAR season and he had four (including one at 15.0!). I think a large part of that was that he was hitting in a new way, and had taken a quantum leap forward it took pitchers awhile to catch up; to a lesser extent the same was true of Hornsby and Gehrig. If they played in a more competitive era (say, the 1950s or later, I think even Ruth would have maxed out around 12 WAR). We also don't know if their defensive and baserunning stats are all accurate.

Of the 23 seasons of 11+ WAR, 19 of them were before 1960, and only 3 of them in the last 50 years - and 2 of those were steroids-enhanced. So you could say that Morgan in '75 was the last true 11 WAR season (see note).

Meaning, 11 WAR has become a kind of cap on performance. I'm not saying it will never be surpassed again, but it might be to WAR what .400 is to BA - it will either take a really special player having a really special year where everything aligns just right, or the game will have to change. Trout and Betts were on 11+ WAR paces (Trout 11.1 and Betts 12.4!) in 2018, but they missed 22 and 26 games, repsectively.

Could Trout reach 11 WAR? It is possible - and he's probably the guy with the best chance. But it would probably have to be soon, as even if he maintains his hitting deep into his 30s, he's going to slow on the base-paths and in the outfield. He'd basically have to do 2018 all over again, but play a full season (or slightly better, and play a few less games). Meaning, something like .320/.470/.650 with 50 HR, good defense and base-running in 155 games...all in the same year. In other words, "Trout maxed out" could reach 11 WAR, but it is very hard to max out in all ways for an entire season.

 

*Note: I always feel like I have to defend Bonds, because I think people often lose sight of what an incredible player he was before steroids, but I don't think any of those 2001-04 seasons would have been 10 WAR seasons, maybe not even 9 WAR. He had his best pre-roids season in 1993, which was a great 10.5 WAR, and then averaged 8 WAR for the next five years. He lost some time due to injury and also saw his defense decline in 1999, with 3.3 WAR in 102 games, and everything after that was fueled by steroids. Even if he bounced back in 2000 without steroids, I think the best we could have reasonably hoped for was a few seasons in the 6-8 WAR range, and then a few more in the 2-5 range...so maybe 120-125 WAR for his career, not the 164.4 he ended up with.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, PattyD22 said:

@AngelsjunkyGreat piece of work there.  Loved to read it and I feel privileged to have been around to see Mike Trout play in person.  He is a once in a generational talent, and what makes him even more of a special player is how he interacts with the fans at Angel Stadium.  He does not seem to view himself as "bigger than the game" and from what I've been told by people who know him, he's a really awesome person.  

Now, if his team can just help him get to the post season and win some post season games and eliminate that narrative about him, his legacy can be more solidified than it already has.

Yeah, there's something almost unearthly about him. I mean, he's a very down to earth guy, very humble, but that's what seems unearthly--or maybe, "un-starlike." I think he's very happy to play baseball and doesn't take it for granted, with no sense of entitlement.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

*Note: I always feel like I have to defend Bonds, because I think people often lose sight of what an incredible player he was before steroids, but I don't think any of those 2001-04 seasons would have been 10 WAR seasons, maybe not even 9 WAR. He had his best pre-roids season in 1993, which was a great 10.5 WAR, and then averaged 8 WAR for the next five years. He lost some time due to injury and also saw his defense decline in 1999, with 3.3 WAR in 102 games, and everything after that was fueled by steroids. Even if he bounced back in 2000 without steroids, I think the best we could have reasonably hoped for was a few seasons in the 6-8 WAR range, and then a few more in the 2-5 range...so maybe 120-125 WAR for his career, not the 164.4 he ended up with.

Im not sure about that... everyone was on steroids and no one could touch him. He was already better than anyone else when he started taking them. Obviously he was 'old' at that point but I think what we saw was steroids masking his physical decline while he was in the process of becoming a better player. Baseball is an interesting blend of physical talents and learned skill, and watching Bonds hit late in his career was like watching a masterful artist paint. His swing mechanics were flawless and his strike zone recognition the greatest I've ever seen. There are other players who aged very well, Hank Aaron being the best example, without the use of steroids... the real key is staying healthy and in good shape. 

It's an interesting discussion though, because we think of Bonds as the poster boy for the steroid era, because he was so dominant. If you look at the entire league though, and recognize the widespread use of roids it almost feels like we are punishing Bonds for being "the one guy" who saw insane benefits from them. Not to say that others didn't benefit, but I doubt you are docking 40 war off other players careers. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Im not sure about that... everyone was on steroids and no one could touch him. He was already better than anyone else when he started taking them. Obviously he was 'old' at that point but I think what we saw was steroids masking his physical decline while he was in the process of becoming a better player. Baseball is an interesting blend of physical talents and learned skill, and watching Bonds hit late in his career was like watching a masterful artist paint. His swing mechanics were flawless and his strike zone recognition the greatest I've ever seen. There are other players who aged very well, Hank Aaron being the best example, without the use of steroids... the real key is staying healthy and in good shape. 

It's an interesting discussion though, because we think of Bonds as the poster boy for the steroid era, because he was so dominant. If you look at the entire league though, and recognize the widespread use of roids it almost feels like we are punishing Bonds for being "the one guy" who saw insane benefits from them. Not to say that others didn't benefit, but I doubt you are docking 40 war off other players careers. 

I agree with your accolades of Bonds, and 40 may be too much. But I'm not sure he was becoming a better player - there was no sign of that pre-steroids, just that he was maintaining a very high plateau level. Check out his stats from 1994-98, the seasons between his best early season and the injury season before steroids. He was pretty consistent, with no up (or down) swing, except his defense was declining.

My sense is that the steroids didn't improve his skills as much as allowed him to combine the best of both worlds: the vigor of his youth and the skill and intelligence (and plate discipline) that he had developed. Then, adding the strength gains. All of that turned an 8 WAR player into an 11 WAR player. Furthermore, I think they extended his peak beyond when he would have normally started declining.

So rather than 40, perhaps 25 or so is more accurate. But I do think it added that much to his career. That still gives him a ~140 WAR career, which would have put him #5 all-time.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yeah, there's something almost unearthly about him. I mean, he's a very down to earth guy, very humble, but that's what seems unearthly--or maybe, "un-starlike." I think he's very happy to play baseball and doesn't take it for granted, with no sense of entitlement.

i can say from experience that the guy on camera is the guy off camera. More loose and joking around, maybe. But outside of baseball, Trout is merely "off duty baseball player"

Small town kid whos into his family, small circle of friends, little hobbies like hunting and the weather, and baseball. Nothing flashy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...