A Week in Review: Inside the Numbers

[Inside Pitch]

Interesting numbers..

The Pitching Staff

Everyone who would have guessed Quintana had the best FIP among the SPs, raise your hand?   

The Babip numbers for some of these guys are what you'd expect for small sample sizes -- all over the place.  As a team they have been totally normal for what you'd expect over a full 162 games (.301) -- but that ranks as the 10th highest in MLB which means compared to the rest of MLB they have been a tad unlucky early on. The HR/FB rates sort of indicate some bad luck or rather, fluke outcomes given what the HR/9 is.   The team K/9 rates are great, the BB/9 rate has been league average, the team GB rate has been elite.   Basically the early indications are that for the most part the pitching is likely to improve and if there is any truth to the thinking that inducing GBs and piling up K totals = future success the pitching staff has a lot going for it.  That HR/FB has basically been the issue.  Im guessing that figure will come down as they face less Astros, Jays and CWS hitters.

Our offense against the league

Offensively...  A lot to like there.   K rates are low, walk rates are too but again -- the level of competition has been good.   Defensively -- despite the spurt of ugly errors for a couple games there the Angels have 3 defensive runs saved, behind only the Tigers with 5.  (3 teams tied with 3).

Basically, there really hasn't been anything flukey good early on and there are indications things will get better in some key areas. 

It's been a fun first 7 games.

[Warfarin]

Great post @Inside Pitch.

This team definitely looks improved.  As a number have noted, this bullpen has actually been rather good.  As per the Fangraphs link, our best two pitches (so far) have been Slegers and Guerra, although I expect things to change with more time/innings.

The different looks and pitching repertoires have been rather helpful, and from what it sounds like, the "game planning" part that Fabian Ardaya wrote about probably plays a key role, too.  I think we are approaching hitters a bit differently than years past, utilizing a different set of data, and we have the pitchers and repertoires to successfully pull that off.  

On that note, interestingly, Canning yesterday effectively just used two pitches (his 4-seamer and slider) to navigate through his start, whereas in the past, he worked in a third pitch (cutter, change) quite a bit more.  It'll be interesting to see these trends play out over the course of the season.

[tdawg87]

Tough first 7 games, too. We aren't playing Texas and apparently Oakland right now.

[Angel Oracle]

Quintana did give up a bunch of singles.

if Canning could master the cutter just enough, that could be huge.   The slider is really good, he just needs to not leave the 4 seamer in too hittable spots.

it has been both fun and tense these first 7 games.   Time for me to cut the tense out more and enjoy the ride.

Edited April 9, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[Blarg]

7 games in and the Angels with a 5-2 record but only a +3 run differential. The Astros are at +31, The White Sox +12 and the Blue Jays at -1. It's early but Seattle is -14 and Oakland a shocking -40. 

[floplag]

15 minutes ago, Blarg said:

7 games in and the Angels with a 5-2 record but only a +3 run differential. The Astros are at +31, The White Sox +12 and the Blue Jays at -1. It's early but Seattle is -14 and Oakland a shocking -40. 

While true we also played 3 playoff teams while the astros and chisox padded thier differential against the Ms and As. 
The Chisox left Ana -2.  We put a -1 on the Astros in the 2 games, the rest is all Oak/Sea.
Im more encouraged by where we are than where they are. 
Our opening month-ish is actually a bit brutal with almost all potential playoff teams with the exception of  3 with KC and 2 with TX between now and the 25th.  Lets hope the team can keep up this pace till they get to the softer ones... then again we somehow always manage to play down to a lot of those teams so maybe not .

[LetsGoHalos]

This past week has felt like a rollercoaster with so many nailbiting games. If this is the precursor to how the season plays out, this team will be battle tested and ready for a stretch run in September. Just have to keep the momentum going and keep the blood pressure meds close by.

[Lhalo]

2 minutes ago, LetsGoHalos said:

This past week has felt like a rollercoaster with so many nailbiting games. If this is the precursor to how the season plays out, this team will be battle tested and ready for a stretch run in September. Just have to keep the momentum going and keep the blood pressure meds close by.

My 5 year old told me to sit down while I was watching the game the other day. I couldn't help pacing back and forth in my family room lol.

[Stradling]

It will be interesting to see how Oakland responds when they aren’t playing Houston and the Dodgers. If this is the year they fall back to the pack or play sub .500 ball, then we can pretty much assume Chapman will be dealt. 

[wopphil]

The offense is firing on about three cylinders - Trout, Walsh and Ohtani. Rendon has been terrible, and Fletcher, Iglesias and Upton should all improve. The offense definitely has the potential to get better. 

[Warfarin]

10 minutes ago, wopphil said:

The offense is firing on about three cylinders - Trout, Walsh and Ohtani. Rendon has been terrible, and Fletcher, Iglesias and Upton should all improve. The offense definitely has the potential to get better. 

This is true, but over the course of a season, we see these things happen - some guys are hot and some guys aren't.  Trout has an OPS over 1.400, which is great, but I doubt terribly sustainable, so as we see some guys (Rendon, Fletcher) heat up, we'll probably see Trout cool off.

Still, this should be one of the best offenses in the AL, and I actually expect it to be one of the best defenses too, at least when we have Lagares playing in RF over Fowler.

[Taylor]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

7 games in and the Angels with a 5-2 record but only a +3 run differential. The Astros are at +31, The White Sox +12 and the Blue Jays at -1. It's early but Seattle is -14 and Oakland a shocking -40. 

The Astros got to beat up on the A's, and the White Sox got to beat up on the Mariners (after we beat up on them). 

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Taylor said:

The Astros got to beat up on the A's, and the White Sox got to beat up on the Mariners (after we beat up on them). 

But who expected the A’s to be bad?  Maybe they appear bad because they’ve had a brutal schedule.  I remember looking at our schedule and thought the A’s made it harder not easier. 

[Taylor]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

But who expected the A’s to be bad?  Maybe they appear bad because they’ve had a brutal schedule.  I remember looking at our schedule and thought the A’s made it harder not easier. 

The point is, they're really bad right now. Even if they improve the Astros caught them at the right time.

[Stradling]

18 minutes ago, Taylor said:

The point is, they're really bad right now. Even if they improve the Astros caught them at the right time.

I agree with that.  I feel we caught the White Sox at the right time. 

[Taylor]

19 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I agree with that.  I feel we caught the White Sox at the right time. 

Possibly, although the A's continued to suck after the Astros series, while the White Sox started to dominate after the Angels series.

[wopphil]

26 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I agree with that.  I feel we caught the White Sox at the right time. 

I think we played the White Sox well. All four games could have gone either way. Good teams fight each other hard and keep things close, as both teams did in that series. Were we to play them in another four game series, I’d expect similar competition (though perhaps slightly different results). 

[Stradling]

27 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Possibly, although the A's continued to suck after the Astros series, while the White Sox started to dominate after the Angels series.

The A’s started the season with 4 against Houston, 3 against the Dodgers and then 3 more against Houston. 

[Warfarin]

22 minutes ago, Stradling said:

The A’s started the season with 4 against Houston, 3 against the Dodgers and then 3 more against Houston. 

Admittedly, the Astros have played better (or the A's worse?) than I thought.  The A's are actually kinda lucky to have gotten that one win against the Dodgers too.  Otherwise, they'd be 0-8.

[Stradling]

I thought/think the Astros are over rated. They are off to a hot start but they don’t have pitching. 

[Chuck]

Great stuff @Inside Pitch. This is the type of content I love reading. 

I promoted it to the blog and shared it on social media!! 

[Lou]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I thought/think the Astros are over rated. They are off to a hot start but they don’t have pitching. 

They're giving up less than 3 runs per game.

[Stradling]

11 minutes ago, Lou said:

They're giving up less than 3 runs per game.

Yes.  And David Fletcher is batting .226. 

[Lou]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Yes.  And David Fletcher is batting .226. 

Yeah, that's relevant to the Astros pitching.

[sammyscioscia]

2 hours ago, Lhalo said:

My 5 year old told me to sit down while I was watching the game the other day. I couldn't help pacing back and forth in my family room lol.

Keep doing whatever you're doing