Angels sign David Fletcher to an extension (5 years, $26 million, with club options for 6th and 7th year)

[Dtwncbad]

Consensus is a combination of “I love Fletcher” and “great contract for the Angels.”

Honest question:  Isn’t anyone who loves Fletcher thinking he just got taken?

[AngelsFaninGA]

22 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Consensus is a combination of “I love Fletcher” and “great contract for the Angels.”

Honest question:  Isn’t anyone who loves Fletcher thinking he just got taken?

He kind of did. I would never settle for a paltry amount like that. Barely enough to afford ramen and an Aston Martin these days.

[Stradling]

50 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Consensus is a combination of “I love Fletcher” and “great contract for the Angels.”

Honest question:  Isn’t anyone who loves Fletcher thinking he just got taken?

How much does a lead off hitter who’s an excellent defender but has limited power and limited stolen base potential get paid in free agency, when he isn’t a free agent until age 30-31?

[T.G.]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

Consensus is a combination of “I love Fletcher” and “great contract for the Angels.”

Honest question:  Isn’t anyone who loves Fletcher thinking he just got taken?

Angels overpaid by $1 million.

[Angelsjunky]

To be honest, I don't know why Fletcher accepted this deal. If he doesn't turn out to be anything more than a solid average regular (2-3 WAR), he'd still probably be able to make more on the free agent market, and this contract potentially buys out three years of free agency. If last year turns out to not be a short-season fluke, then he's a 4+ WAR borderline star, and he would have made considerably more from 2025 on.

I guess it comes down to guaranteed money. Still, I would have thought the club options would be more like $10-12M.

Edited April 2, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Warfarin]

35 minutes ago, Stradling said:

How much does a lead off hitter who’s an excellent defender but has limited power and limited stolen base potential get paid in free agency, when he isn’t a free agent until age 30-31?

  

17 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

To be honest, I don't know why Fletcher accepted this deal. If he doesn't turn out to be anything more than a solid average regular (2-3 WAR), he'd still probably be able to make more on the free agent market, and this contract potentially buys out three years of free agency. If last year turns out to not be a short-season fluke, then he's a 4+ WAR borderline star, and he would have made considerably more from 2025 on.

I guess it comes down to guaranteed money. Still, I would have thought the club options would be more like $10-12M.

 

I think context is good.  Fletcher was never really considered a top prospect coming up.  He is sorta like of the Eckstein mold, but better - scrappy player with great bat control and better defense.  Fletcher has been getting better, but 2B tend to not get paid that much in free agency unless they are elite, and Fletcher isn't elite (although he is very, very good).  Fletcher took the financial guarantee, and I don't blame him.  He's set for life, making a minimum of 26mil and possibly 41mil if he maintains his current level of play.  He never has to worry about money, injury, etc again.  I don't blame someone for pursuing every last dollar and betting on themselves, but in a sport where the middle class is vanishing (i.e., stars still get paid elite money, but middle tier players don't), I think Fletcher made a solid decision - one that hopefully both parties should benefit from.

[T.G.]

16 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

To be honest, I don't know why Fletcher accepted this deal. If he doesn't turn out to be anything more than a solid average regular (2-3 WAR), he'd still probably be able to make more on the free agent market, and this contract potentially buys out three years of free agency. If last year turns out to not be a short-season fluke, then he's a 4+ WAR borderline star, and he would have made considerably more from 2025 on.

I guess it comes down to guaranteed money. Still, I would have thought the club options would be more like $10-12M.

He doesn't need the money.  He's making a ton in his craft milk side hustle.

[Warfarin]

While we have mentioned some of the other young players who we might want to see sign a deal like this (Canning, Walsh, etc etc), I think one guy I'd like to try to do a similar deal with is Max Stassi.

Stassi is a really good defensive catcher who is starting to emerge as a pretty decent hitter.  He also has been injured a few times and might want to sacrifice some financial upside for a guarantee.  He just turned 30 - I would consider offering a 3 year contract (buying out the last 2 years of arbitration plus one year of free agency), with an option for a fourth.  

We have most positions pretty solidified long-term, with the exception of C and SS.  

[Angelsjunky]

26 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

  

 

I think context is good.  Fletcher was never really considered a top prospect coming up.  He is sorta like of the Eckstein mold, but better - scrappy player with great bat control and better defense.  Fletcher has been getting better, but 2B tend to not get paid that much in free agency unless they are elite, and Fletcher isn't elite (although he is very, very good).  Fletcher took the financial guarantee, and I don't blame him.  He's set for life, making a minimum of 26mil and possibly 41mil if he maintains his current level of play.  He never has to worry about money, injury, etc again.  I don't blame someone for pursuing every last dollar and betting on themselves, but in a sport where the middle class is vanishing (i.e., stars still get paid elite money, but middle tier players don't), I think Fletcher made a solid decision - one that hopefully both parties should benefit from.

Sure, but he's also a guy that has established a floor of 3 WAR over a full season and shown signs that he could be even better (he was on a 4.5+ WAR pace), yet this contract maxes out at $8.5M a year.

As an aside, this is also why I don't think we can take that "$9M per WAR" formula too seriously. It isn't linear. I'm just going by impressions, but my sense is that platoon/fringe starters (1-2 WAR) tend to make <$8M a year on the free agent market; solid regulars (2-3 WAR) tend to make $8-12M; good regulars (3-4 WAR) around $10-18M; all-stars (4-5 WAR) $15-25M; and superstars (5+ WAR) $25M+.

My point is that Fletcher has established himself as a good regular, with the potential to even be a 4 WAR guy. We can adjust down a bit for the contract being signed while still under club-control (and pre-arb), but I still would have thought the club options would have been $2-5M more per year.

Not that I'm complaining. Another nice perk to this contract is that even if he settles back down to being a solid regular, if more than one of the middle infield prospects turns out to be really good, Fletcher can adjust to being a super-sub. So in 2025, we could have two of Jackson, Vera, and Paris at SS/2B, and Fletchers as MI/OF utility guy who gets close to full-time play at different positions.

[Angelsjunky]

31 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

While we have mentioned some of the other young players who we might want to see sign a deal like this (Canning, Walsh, etc etc), I think one guy I'd like to try to do a similar deal with is Max Stassi.

Stassi is a really good defensive catcher who is starting to emerge as a pretty decent hitter.  He also has been injured a few times and might want to sacrifice some financial upside for a guarantee.  He just turned 30 - I would consider offering a 3 year contract (buying out the last 2 years of arbitration plus one year of free agency), with an option for a fourth.  

We have most positions pretty solidified long-term, with the exception of C and SS.  

Yes, although let's see how the season plays out. I think the Angels should at least wait a month or two to determine if the offense last year was legit. 

[Warfarin]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Sure, but he's also a guy that has established a floor of 3 WAR over a full season and shown signs that he could be even better (he was on a 4.5+ WAR pace), yet this contract maxes out at $8.5M a year.

As an aside, this is also why I don't think we can take that "$9M per WAR" formula too seriously. It isn't linear. I'm just going by impressions, but my sense is that platoon/fringe starters (1-2 WAR) tend to make <$8M a year on the free agent market; solid regulars (2-3 WAR) tend to make $8-12M; good regulars (3-4 WAR) around $10-18M; all-stars (4-5 WAR) $15-25M; and superstars (5+ WAR) $25M+.

My point is that Fletcher has established himself as a good regular, with the potential to even be a 4 WAR guy. We can adjust down a bit for the contract being signed while still under club-control (and pre-arb), but I still would have thought the club options would have been $2-5M more per year.

Not that I'm complaining. Another nice perk to this contract is that even if he settles back down to being a solid regular, if more than one of the middle infield prospects turns out to be really good, Fletcher can adjust to being a super-sub. So in 2025, we could have two of Jackson, Vera, and Paris at SS/2B, and Fletchers as MI/OF utility guy who gets close to full-time play at different positions.

Right, and I am sure each FO has its own set of advanced analytics that is likely superior to fWAR too that they use to determine how much someone is worth.

Fletcher had his best offensive year last year.  If he "regresses" back into his 2019 form, he is still a very good player, but a low 700 OPS, great defensive second baseman is a nice player to have, but probably not one who will fetch that much in free agency.

So in a sense, this contract helps Fletcher hedge against offensive regression.  His great defense and contact skills will make him a solid player regardless, though.

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

  

 

I think context is good.  Fletcher was never really considered a top prospect coming up.  He is sorta like of the Eckstein mold, but better - scrappy player with great bat control and better defense.  Fletcher has been getting better, but 2B tend to not get paid that much in free agency unless they are elite, and Fletcher isn't elite (although he is very, very good).  Fletcher took the financial guarantee, and I don't blame him.  He's set for life, making a minimum of 26mil and possibly 41mil if he maintains his current level of play.  He never has to worry about money, injury, etc again.  I don't blame someone for pursuing every last dollar and betting on themselves, but in a sport where the middle class is vanishing (i.e., stars still get paid elite money, but middle tier players don't), I think Fletcher made a solid decision - one that hopefully both parties should benefit from.

Good point at the end there. The elite are getting paid HUGe money (Lindor this week), but the good guys are becoming more "available".

I also wonder if there is an impending money crises in baseball...m between covid, waiving fan interest, etc... the heydey of guaranteed money might be getting shorter and shorter.

He gambled losing money by signing the contract, but playing it conservative by not losing money in something "bad" (like an injury, regression, recession) going forward.

In essence, he won the lotto, and took the lump sum up front at a loss vs a bit more money spread out

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

While we have mentioned some of the other young players who we might want to see sign a deal like this (Canning, Walsh, etc etc), I think one guy I'd like to try to do a similar deal with is Max Stassi.

Stassi is a really good defensive catcher who is starting to emerge as a pretty decent hitter.  He also has been injured a few times and might want to sacrifice some financial upside for a guarantee.  He just turned 30 - I would consider offering a 3 year contract (buying out the last 2 years of arbitration plus one year of free agency), with an option for a fourth.  

We have most positions pretty solidified long-term, with the exception of C and SS.  

SS isn’t bad either, with Iglesias now and Paris, Vera, etc. moving on up.

If he continues to hit well through May, I’d offer Stassi two years for say $12-14 million with a third year team option for $7 million.

Edited April 2, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[Lou]

Fletcher and Lindor had the same OPS in 2020.

[sammyscioscia]

12 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

SS isn’t bad either, with Iglesias now and Paris, Vera, etc. moving on up.

If he continues to hit well through May, I’d offer Stassi two years for say $12-14 million with a third year team option for $7 million.

I think that's a bit expensive given Stassi's lack of track record, I think something around Fletchers contract would make sense. 4-5 MM/y.

I'd say 3y/13.25MM seems fair on both ends.

Also given the uncertainty of the future economics of baseball leaning slightly on the pessimistic side.

Lindors contract should be viewed as bad for baseball and a risky gamble.

[Warfarin]

12 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

SS isn’t bad either, with Iglesias now and Paris, Vera, etc. moving on up.

If he continues to hit well through May, I’d offer Stassi two years for say $12-14 million with a third year team option for $7 million.

Yeah, but in terms of SS, there's a bit of a gap, since he's due to be a free agent.  Fortunately there are a lot of SSs available.  I don't see us being a player for Seager, Correa, etc and in truth, I'm perfectly happy with someone like Igelsias or Semien to bridge teh gap to someone like Paris/Vera.  I think those two are probably 2-3 years away, so if we can get Iglesias (or Semien) on perhaps a 2 year deal after this year, that should be sufficient IMO.

[sammyscioscia]

8 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Yeah, but in terms of SS, there's a bit of a gap, since he's due to be a free agent.  Fortunately there are a lot of SSs available.  I don't see us being a player for Seager, Correa, etc and in truth, I'm perfectly happy with someone like Igelsias or Semien to bridge teh gap to someone like Paris/Vera.  I think those two are probably 2-3 years away, so if we can get Iglesias (or Semien) on perhaps a 2 year deal after this year, that should be sufficient IMO.

I know it's way early but Churro (My new nickname for Churches aka Iglesias) looks really happy and comfortable here, if he can swing the stick around .280 and continues his high zone rating defense, I find no reason to see him off.

[Warfarin]

9 minutes ago, sammyscioscia said:

I know it's way early but Churro (My new nickname for Churches aka Iglesias) looks really happy and comfortable here, if he can swing the stick around .280 and continues his high zone rating defense, I find no reason to see him off.

Sure, I can certainly see that happening.  I'm a fan of what I've seen from him defensively.  We're actually fortunate in that there's a TON of talent that's due to become a FA at SS.  The big spenders (Dodgers, Yankees, etc) will likely pursue the elite names, but it'll enable us to likely sign someone in the Iglesias/Semien tier rather easily to something like a 2-3 year deal.

[Angel Oracle]

Either re-signing Churches or going with Rengifo will be fine for the next 3 seasons.

[Lou]

23 minutes ago, sammyscioscia said:

I know it's way early but Churro (My new nickname for Churches aka Iglesias) 

Oh, hell no. 

[Warfarin]

8 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Either re-signing Churches or going with Rengifo will be fine for the next 3 seasons.

Yeah.  Rengifo though I think could become more of our super utility player - someone who doesn't have a permanent spot but can sub in at 2B, SS, 3B, LF, etc.  A lot of the strong teams have highly versatile bench players that get a lot of playing time, and it could be that Rengifo becomes our version of Chris Taylor.

[Blarg]

It figures. Fletcher signs a long term contract and is only hitting .250. 

[T.G.]

2 minutes ago, Blarg said:

It figures. Fletcher signs a long term contract and is only hitting .250. 

$26 million doesn't buy you what it used to.

[sammyscioscia]

33 minutes ago, Lou said:

Oh, hell no. 

Conform or perish, Churro is his name-o

[Angel Oracle]

46 minutes ago, Lou said:

You guys are crazy if you think Rengifo is anywhere near the player Iglesias is. 

Didn’t say he was, just that if Arte decides to not re-sign him, they could do worse than Rengifo.

Ideally, he is re-signed to a 2-3 year deal and Rengifo becomes super utility guy.