Angels sign Steve Cishek and Tony Watson (1 year, $1 million a piece)

[Lou]

12 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I'm a maybe

[Docwaukee]

14 minutes ago, Lou said:

I'm still a maybe.  

[BTH]

17 hours ago, Dochalo said:

why would we want a guy with that kind of stuff to hone his craft and ramp up to 160+ innings per season when he can be rushed to the majors and pitch 50?

because the chances that he pitches 50 innings in the majors and helps the big league team win is significantly higher than the chances that he ramps up to 160+ innings in the minors

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

Is that Sharkboy?

[Docwaukee]

Just now, Trendon said:

because the chances that he pitches 50 innings in the majors and helps the big league team win is significantly higher than the chances that he ramps up to 160+ innings in the minors

short sighted.  Is the 50 innings he's gonna pitch gonna be that more impactful to the overall outcome of the season than him refining his chops into that 1 or 2 starter that we've been looking for?  He's the most likely to become that of anyone close.  And does a pen role now delay that process or make it less likely?  I think so but whatever.  He belongs in AA and then maybe he gets a chance late in the season.  The time to bring him up as a reliever would be during a playoff push and then beyond.  Not now.  

[Warfarin]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

short sighted.  Is the 50 innings he's gonna pitch gonna be that more impactful to the overall outcome of the season than him refining his chops into that 1 or 2 starter that we've been looking for?  He's the most likely to become that of anyone close.  And does a pen role now delay that process or make it less likely?  I think so but whatever.  He belongs in AA and then maybe he gets a chance late in the season.  The time to bring him up as a reliever would be during a playoff push and then beyond.  Not now.  

Perhaps the plan is to have him up as a reliever for ~1 month or so, get him some innings and some experience, then option him and start to stretch him out.  That way he gets some reps as a SP and stretches out, but also has his innings managed on the whole (since he'll be a part-time reliever), all the while giving him an opportunity to test his stuff against MLB hitters.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

short sighted.  Is the 50 innings he's gonna pitch gonna be that more impactful to the overall outcome of the season than him refining his chops into that 1 or 2 starter that we've been looking for?  He's the most likely to become that of anyone close.  And does a pen role now delay that process or make it less likely?  I think so but whatever.  He belongs in AA and then maybe he gets a chance late in the season.  The time to bring him up as a reliever would be during a playoff push and then beyond.  Not now.  

You have no idea if he's going to be healthy "late in the season."

His stuff looks ready, his command looked good, and he's healthy right now. Let him pitch out of the bullpen and see what happens. If he struggles, they can always send him back to the minor leagues in two weeks.

Also, the minor league season doesn't even start until May. So he wouldn't be pitching in real games until then anyway. He may not even be on the major league team in May.

[Angel Oracle]

4 hours ago, Second Base said:

Is that Sharkboy?

 

[Billy_Ball]

41 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

 

And when Earthquake went to WCW and became Shark!

[Duren, Duren]

Nice shrewd move. It's not just Minasian, but his scouts and advisors who do the ground work, focusing  on positions  of need. Before the triggers are pulled it means going to spring games, using the eye test as well as stats and scouting reports. As well as knowing the talent on other rosters and anticipating cuts or possible deals. And being able to compare to who they already have.  

Minasian makes the final decisions of who, when and for how much. And (along with Maddon)  how the roster gets constructed. I like the addition of these two veterans or possibly three. Experience, different deliveries, bullpen savvy. Long enough consistent careers to not expect dramatic failures. Bullpen inning eaters who should fill roles respectably enough. Safer additions than recently rehab or project pitchers.

Minasian seems totally poised and businesslike, going about his business professionally without  need to reveal much to the media. Let the extroverted and outspoken headlines  come from the dugout. 

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

You have no idea if he's going to be healthy "late in the season."

His stuff looks ready, his command looked good, and he's healthy right now. Let him pitch out of the bullpen and see what happens. If he struggles, they can always send him back to the minor leagues in two weeks.

Also, the minor league season doesn't even start until May. So he wouldn't be pitching in real games until then anyway. He may not even be on the major league team in May.

his stuff is ready and he's healthy.  Could there be a better time for him to head toward graduating into a number 1 or 2 starter?  He's got 77 minor league innings and was drafted out of high school.  His job at the major league level will be much different than if he were in the minors.  He's there to get outs.  Not to progress or hone his craft.  We need him in the rotation long term.  Regardless of whether he helps or not, it's still short sighted.  

What do you think is more likely to keep him healthy  btw?  Monitoring his workload in a controlled environment or making him perform as needed on a nightly basis?  

In my opinion, the intermittent workload stress is massively underplayed in MLB and could be a big factor in why relievers are such a crap shoot.  It probably has more to do with the fact that a guy becomes a reliever because he doesn't have the stuff to start.  Chris Rodriguez has the stuff to become a front line starter.  Go spend a few mil for his major league replacement so you can maximize his future value.  

There is no timeline where putting him on the major league club as a reliever gets him closer to being a front of the rotation starter in the future.  

[Docwaukee]

as much as I'm a stats guy and love my math, the addition of Hoyt, Ramirez, Watson and Cishek to our pen added 0.1 WAR to our total and that's coming from Hoyt.  The other three are given 0.0.  

Those four adding depth and replacing projected innings from guys like Keller, Quijada, Bard and Ramos plus freeing up guys like Barria and Sandoval to remain starters and provide depth on that front has to be worth at least 2 if not 3 wins.  

I felt like we were in the 86-87 range before and now I feel like we're in the 88-90 range now.  

I think I have a pretty good handle on how these work but if someone can explain to me how adding four ok to very solid relievers when we really lacked that could result in no additional value, I'd appreciate it.  I presume it's related to the assumed volatility of relievers but that just doesn't scan for me.  

The more arms you have, the more mix and match you can do and the more you're gonna end up favoring one of those 'volatile' guys over the course of the season as at least one of two of them are going to perform on the good side of that volatility.  Isn't that the whole point of having reliever depth?   Shouldn't a projection system take that into account at some point?  

It seems a bit remedial at this point where you just add up what you think each guy is going to do and disregard how selective opportunities related to the whole might actually play out.  

END RANT

[tdawg87]

8 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

as much as I'm a stats guy and love my math, the addition of Hoyt, Ramirez, Watson and Cishek to our pen added 0.1 WAR to our total and that's coming from Hoyt.  The other three are given 0.0.  

Those four adding depth and replacing projected innings from guys like Keller, Quijada, Bard and Ramos plus freeing up guys like Barria and Sandoval to remain starters and provide depth on that front has to be worth at least 2 if not 3 wins.  

I felt like we were in the 86-87 range before and now I feel like we're in the 88-90 range now.  

I think I have a pretty good handle on how these work but if someone can explain to me how adding four ok to very solid relievers when we really lacked that could result in no additional value, I'd appreciate it.  I presume it's related to the assumed volatility of relievers but that just doesn't scan for me.  

The more arms you have, the more mix and match you can do and the more you're gonna end up favoring one of those 'volatile' guys over the course of the season as at least one of two of them are going to perform on the good side of that volatility.  Isn't that the whole point of having reliever depth?   Shouldn't a projection system take that into account at some point?  

It seems a bit remedial at this point where you just add up what you think each guy is going to do and disregard how selective opportunities related to the whole might actually play out.  

END RANT

This is why I hate WAR for pitchers. I especially hate it for relievers. 

I think having a legit closer adds a handful of wins. If we aren't blowing saves we're winning more games. 

Maddon will be playing 3D chess with all the options he has. You'd have to think we'll get a good group at some point. If not then holy fuck.

[ThisismineScios]

On 3/30/2021 at 1:12 PM, Inside Pitch said:

Likewise, I appreciate people amicable back and forth discussion.

For whatever reasons there is a ton of mythology surrounding CRod and the nature of his injuries and the sort.  I've seen several places labeling him as oft injured, one place said he had a glass arm.  The kid has never had an arm injury -- its kind of weird and reminds me of how a lot of people tend to lump D-Mac in with Brandon Wood.  It's like people know the name and think they remember something about him being hurt and suddenly he's lumped in with the Angels TJ parade.  

I'd venture to say that pretty much nobody outside of real prospect hounds and all us asshats at AW.com have been following the Chris Rodriguez saga prior to him showing up this ST.

I do however think it’s fair for them to want to see in season how his stuff plays. Can he mix, locate, and get outs? He has crazy stuff, but I think they want to see it in action sooner than later. If he can be consistent over 30-40 IP, there’s a reason to work to stretch him out. I get that his value as a starter is way higher, but I just think it’s a combination of seeing him in real situations and the fact that he has top-10 stuff in baseball and can help right at this moment. I don’t think there’s any desire in the FO to keep him relieving long-term, but they are trying to steal a glance at him knowing the AA season won’t start for 33 days. I actually like it. It’s possible to work him as a starter after 1-2 months. 

[Warfarin]

On 3/30/2021 at 11:09 PM, Duren, Duren said:

Nice shrewd move. It's not just Minasian, but his scouts and advisors who do the ground work, focusing  on positions  of need. Before the triggers are pulled it means going to spring games, using the eye test as well as stats and scouting reports. As well as knowing the talent on other rosters and anticipating cuts or possible deals. And being able to compare to who they already have.  

Minasian makes the final decisions of who, when and for how much. And (along with Maddon)  how the roster gets constructed. I like the addition of these two veterans or possibly three. Experience, different deliveries, bullpen savvy. Long enough consistent careers to not expect dramatic failures. Bullpen inning eaters who should fill roles respectably enough. Safer additions than recently rehab or project pitchers.

Minasian seems totally poised and businesslike, going about his business professionally without  need to reveal much to the media. Let the extroverted and outspoken headlines  come from the dugout. 

This is a great point.  It's easy for us to say "nice work by Minasian," but it's really the same thing with a lot of these FO's - Anthopolous' Braves, Friedman's Dodgers, etc.  The key to a FO running well is they know how to delegate tasks to their team and let their team work in their areas of specialty and then collaborate based on the information they have at hand.

I'm sure a number of these moves weren't solely Minasian, but rather, his various lieutenants (Tamin, Watson, etc) helping find talent and making recommendations to Minasian based on scouting, analytics, inside information, etc.

Regardless, great work by Minasian and his team in the moves they've made.  The entire bullpen was overhauled, and while I don't think it's a top-end pen, I think we have more than enough serviceable talent such that we shouldn't be leading the league in blown saves.  With our offense, a solid SP staff (yes, really!), and some fairly good defense, an average bullpen should be fine, especially considering that our late inning options (Iglesias, Mayers) should be really good.

[Warfarin]

19 hours ago, Dochalo said:

as much as I'm a stats guy and love my math, the addition of Hoyt, Ramirez, Watson and Cishek to our pen added 0.1 WAR to our total and that's coming from Hoyt.  The other three are given 0.0.  

Those four adding depth and replacing projected innings from guys like Keller, Quijada, Bard and Ramos plus freeing up guys like Barria and Sandoval to remain starters and provide depth on that front has to be worth at least 2 if not 3 wins.  

I felt like we were in the 86-87 range before and now I feel like we're in the 88-90 range now.  

I think I have a pretty good handle on how these work but if someone can explain to me how adding four ok to very solid relievers when we really lacked that could result in no additional value, I'd appreciate it.  I presume it's related to the assumed volatility of relievers but that just doesn't scan for me.  

The more arms you have, the more mix and match you can do and the more you're gonna end up favoring one of those 'volatile' guys over the course of the season as at least one of two of them are going to perform on the good side of that volatility.  Isn't that the whole point of having reliever depth?   Shouldn't a projection system take that into account at some point?  

It seems a bit remedial at this point where you just add up what you think each guy is going to do and disregard how selective opportunities related to the whole might actually play out.  

END RANT

 

19 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

This is why I hate WAR for pitchers. I especially hate it for relievers. 

I think having a legit closer adds a handful of wins. If we aren't blowing saves we're winning more games. 

Maddon will be playing 3D chess with all the options he has. You'd have to think we'll get a good group at some point. If not then holy fuck.

fWAR isn't a perfect stat, and in truth, a lot of these guys are likely going to just be a bit above average.

The keys for us are a few things:

1.  Avoiding the -0.8 or similar caliber pitchers who have completely tanked us in the past.  0.1 fWAR isn't exciting, but it's serviceable, and quite often in the past, we have been undone by some spectacularly awful relief performances from what we were hoping would be key high-leverage relievers (Cody Allen, Robles last year, etc).

2.  In relation to above, you want to have strong high-leverage relievers, and you can likely get away with just serviceable middle relievers.  If you have at least two guys you can count on during crunch time (Iglesias, Mayers), then that's a huge victory.  You'd like to think your SP can get through 5+ innings, ideally 6.  So then that leaves the final 3+ or so to navigate through.  Ideally, you utilize your high leverage guys to face the tougher parts of the lineup, even if the 7th IP, and use your lower leverage relievers to pitch to the bottom of the order.  Last night, we saw Slegers come in and mow through the bottom part of the lineup, then Mayers and Iglesias navigated through the more difficult parts to close the door.  It may not always work out like that, but the key thing is what we have - 2 guys that can shut down the other team, and a host of middle relievers who won't get crushed.

Guys like Cishek, Watson, Guerra, etc - I don't anticipate them being great, but if they can just be replacement level or better, I think that should be good enough, since I feel Iglesias + Mayers (and actually Slegers too - I'm optimistic on him being a very good reliever) can slam the door on most nights.

CRod is a wild card.  His stuff is great but he's short on experience.  He could potentially be a multi-inning shutdown reliever too, although I don't think we'll see him rolled out in consecutive nights.  

[Erstad Grit]

On 3/30/2021 at 10:40 PM, Billy_Ball said:

And when Earthquake went to WCW and became Shark!

I'm not a fish I'm a man!!!!

[Angel Oracle]

Not a good debut for Cishek, what the heck are you doing walking an always weak hitting Billy Hamilton????

Edited April 3, 2021 by Angel Oracle