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Not true. They can offer him any amount they want. It's way too early to offer him a huge contract. If any player needs to prove himself, it's Ohtani. 

No need to even think about it right now. He just signed a 2-year deal and isn't a FA until 2024. 

But no pressure.

3 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

A great many pitchers have had TJS and never receive the all skepticism Ohtani is getting coming back from his TJS.

This is actually a good point, and it kind of makes me feel better, but it kind of doesn't. I think the reason is that if you go back to his Japanese career, he hasn't really been healthy (as a pitcher) since 2016, with several comeback attempts that all led to lots of time off and eventually TJS. For us Angels fans, he got injured shortly into the 2018 season, then came back and got injured again, then got the surgery and missed all of 2019, then was horrible in 2020 and got hurt again. So it kinda makes sense to be skeptical (similarly with Chris Rodriguez, actually). 

So while I think you're right, the skepticism is based on his actual history.

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

That's because they probably had an established history of success.

Ohtani has a third of a season of success, and it was 3 years ago.

True, but only if you ignore Japan. Yes, I know it is easier to get Japanese people out, but he was a great pitcher in Japan for a few years. But see my comment above, because I think the concerns are valid.

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8 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

That's because they probably had an established history of success.

Ohtani has a third of a season of success, and it was 3 years ago.

The message about Ohtani is: If he can remain healthy, he will be OK. They seem to be less worried about his stuff playing in the majors especially since he has hit 102 MPH, and his splitter is unhittable. There is no more of a question about him staying healthy than any other pitcher coming off surgery, no matter their level of success IMO.

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4 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

The message about Ohtani is: If he can remain healthy, he will be OK. They seem to be less worried about his stuff playing in the majors especially since he has hit 102 MPH, and his splitter is unhittable. There is no more of a question about him staying healthy than any other pitcher coming off surgery, no matter their level of success IMO.

I think that's a fair assessment.

I have nothing to back this up, but it seems pitchers tend to need a year to return to form after TJ surgery. I remember Joe Nathan being a good example, though he only pitched a few years afterwards.

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3 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

The funny thing is, that part is true.

Heard some pretty crazy stories about the things teams bring up about guys in arbitration, too...

I figured there was some truth in it. Lol

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I guess I'm not speaking American because you guys have totally missed the original question, which was in two parts: How much, and how long would you wait? 

So, essentially, how long would you want him to prove himself before you tried to tie him up long term. 

It's a risk/reward equation - wait the full two years and his final arb year before you offer a big deal and the deal may cost more but will be lower risk. Tie him up early and the risk is higher but the cost likely lower (with Ohtani having a fall-back position of having a floor of an elite hitter if he fails as a pitcher, some of this risk is mitigated). A similar equation to Tatis etc - buy out the arb years and the FA years become less expensive - the Padres didn't have to sign Tatis for another 5 years, but they locked him up early because they preferred that risk/reward ratio.

Just trying to establish other Angels' fans views on where they feel they would pitch their risk/reward for Ohtani and saying "we don't need to think about that now - we don't owe him  - he's got to prove himself" really doesn't add anything interesting or insightful at all.   

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11 hours ago, WicketMaiden said:

I guess I'm not speaking American because you guys have totally missed the original question, which was in two parts: How much, and how long would you wait? 

So, essentially, how long would you want him to prove himself before you tried to tie him up long term. 

It's a risk/reward equation - wait the full two years and his final arb year before you offer a big deal and the deal may cost more but will be lower risk. Tie him up early and the risk is higher but the cost likely lower (with Ohtani having a fall-back position of having a floor of an elite hitter if he fails as a pitcher, some of this risk is mitigated). A similar equation to Tatis etc - buy out the arb years and the FA years become less expensive - the Padres didn't have to sign Tatis for another 5 years, but they locked him up early because they preferred that risk/reward ratio.

Just trying to establish other Angels' fans views on where they feel they would pitch their risk/reward for Ohtani and saying "we don't need to think about that now - we don't owe him  - he's got to prove himself" really doesn't add anything interesting or insightful at all.   

I would honestly not offer him a large contract ever. I know that's negative but I see far too much downside risk with him.

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After this year, if Ohtani has a arm injury or is not very effective as a starter, the Angels should move him to RF and a closer position. That his bat is in the line up everyday and he only needs to pitch one inning 50-60 times a year. I know we lose the DH slot when he becomes a pitcher, but if he saves the game we will not need to hit again. He is awesome on the mound but I do not believe he will hold up as a starter all season.

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12 minutes ago, TempleBarAngels said:

After this year, if Ohtani has a arm injury or is not very effective as a starter, the Angels should move him to RF and a closer position. That his bat is in the line up everyday and he only needs to pitch one inning 50-60 times a year. I know we lose the DH slot when he becomes a pitcher, but if he saves the game we will not need to hit again. He is awesome on the mound but I do not believe he will hold up as a starter all season.

@BackUpTheTruck must have a new username.

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