2021 MLB Draft Prospects Thread

[Angel Oracle]

25 minutes ago, AngelStew43 said:

Hoglund or Madden.  No one is going to trade us any pitching, and the top FA pitchers seem to be using us for leverage, if we even offer them at all.  

So, that means we have to draft and develop our own.  Hoglund or Madden, please. 

Hoglund would be a later round due to TJS.   Madden definitely please!

[Vlad27Trout27]

Pitching please pitching.

If we can draft a guy Like Madden, who has front of the line stuff, add him to detmers, who is also showing improved stuff, we have two guys in another year or two that can help the rotation.

[AngelStew43]

The latest mock at mlb.com had Hoglund going 29th to the Dodgers.  If the Dodgers like him that much, I think we can grab him earlier.  

We should also spend the early rounds of the draft, at least 1, 2, and 3, on power arms that profile as starting pitchers.  As I said earlier, no one is going to give us a number 1, we will have to draft and develop our own. 

[DCAngelsFan]

8 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

I guess a bunch of SSs always get drafted, and I suppose a college one could in theory fill a need sooner rather than later (though we do have some SS options in the minors)--but I will again say that I really don't understand what the Angels are doing if they draft a HS P, HS C, or SS with their first pick, given the state of the system and the very clear immediate needs of the franchise.

The hit rates on high school players in the aggregate, especially pitchers, is poor.  

Just did a quick search, and found an article that showed just 7% of high school pitchers drafted in the 1st/supplemental rounds went on to play 3+ years in the majors.

As you go down the rounds, college pitchers succeed at twice the rate of high school pitchers, while the gap between high school and college position players is less, though college players still succeed at a greater rate

Given where this team is, the first two picks should be "college pitchers", and only then consider high school pitchers - and then only players who might've slipped from the 1st round. 

[Dtwncbad]

8 minutes ago, DCAngelsFan said:

The hit rates on high school players in the aggregate, especially pitchers, is poor.  

Just did a quick search, and found an article that showed just 7% of high school pitchers drafted in the 1st/supplemental rounds went on to play 3+ years in the majors.

As you go down the rounds, college pitchers succeed at twice the rate of high school pitchers, while the gap between high school and college position players is less, though college players still succeed at a greater rate

Given where this team is, the first two picks should be "college pitchers", and only then consider high school pitchers - and then only players who might've slipped from the 1st round. 

Except you are forgetting that prospects are also trade capital.  If there is a starting pitcher that is considerably higher touted, they may be worth more if you trade them.

Minor leaguers either fill your needs or are traded to fill your needs.

[rafibomb]

Damn I totally missed Hoglund got TJ. That's a bummer as that's one less pitching target when we pick.

[Docwaukee]

51 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Except you are forgetting that prospects are also trade capital.  If there is a starting pitcher that is considerably higher touted, they may be worth more if you trade them.

Minor leaguers either fill your needs or are traded to fill your needs.

your statement is interesting and one I hadn't considered.  Draft college level pitchers early as they have more immediate trade value.  I'm sure that's pretty far down on the list of why you might consider a guy a little higher on your board but it's certainly a wrinkle.  

as far as the draft is concerned, I typically seen the first round as getting the best prep position player or college arm you can.  Those two are 1a and 1b for me.  You should be able to get a damn good one of those in the first 10-15 picks.  I really don't like advanced college bats after the first 7-10 picks personally.  I think there's a huge drop after those first few elite guys.  Then it becomes a bit tricky when you're in the >15 range.  Where it opens up the prep pitcher pool (say that 10 times fast).  Excluded from the prep position player group are catchers of course.  And only college catchers if they're elite and top 5.  Then pass till later.   

I actually like a lot of the players in this draft at the Halos spot.  I think the halos will be afraid to draft Jobe as a prep arm at 9.  If one of the top 4 prep SS's slip then I bet they go there.   I hope they don't go college bat is all.  At least three prep SS's, Davis, Rocker, and Leiter will go before the halos pick so they'll have a choice of Madden, Jobe or Watson.  Hopefully a couple of McLain, Cowser and Felick will go in the top 8 so we have even more options.  

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, DCAngelsFan said:

The hit rates on high school players in the aggregate, especially pitchers, is poor.  

Just did a quick search, and found an article that showed just 7% of high school pitchers drafted in the 1st/supplemental rounds went on to play 3+ years in the majors.

As you go down the rounds, college pitchers succeed at twice the rate of high school pitchers, while the gap between high school and college position players is less, though college players still succeed at a greater rate

Given where this team is, the first two picks should be "college pitchers", and only then consider high school pitchers - and then only players who might've slipped from the 1st round. 

while this takes into account whether a guy reaches the majors, it doesn't consider how good they are.  I would sacrifice floor for ceiling when it comes to position players.  

Sam Bachman is another guy who's interesting.  Reliever risk but if they think he can develop the change or any other third pitch...

[DCAngelsFan]

7 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Except you are forgetting that prospects are also trade capital.  If there is a starting pitcher that is considerably higher touted, they may be worth more if you trade them.

Minor leaguers either fill your needs or are traded to fill your needs.

No, not forgetting - the whole "best player available" strategy relies on that - even if the player is in an area of organizational excess, the thought is you can trade them for something you *do* need.

But of course, once drafted, those high school prospects need some time in development leagues to prove their value - most players drafted reach their peak "worth" on draft day - that star prep prospect who struggles in Rookie league doesn't have much trade value.

I guess I should've noted, though - I thought I did - the predicate for *maybe* abandoning "best player available" for "need" are two things:

- we are desperately short of pitching, organizationally.  (and for all those 'best player available' types we drafted, we haven't demonstrated any ability to flip prospects into starting pitching - more the reverse), and 

- Any high school player drafted this draft is probably a post-prime-Trout player - they probably won't reach the majors in any meaningful way for 6 years or so (again, any single player won't be likely to make it) -

So, I'd give some weight to not abandoning BPA, but weighting BPA towards college pitchers who are lower-risk, and most likely to be at least a mid-rotation starting pitcher, and able to help the team sooner rather than later (or never - again, high school pitchers are extremely high-risk)

If the drop-off is too large between "best college pitcher" and "best player" in front of you, you can't be dumb - if you have a choice of a college pitcher, and Mike Trout junior sitting in front of you, the choice is obvious.  

  

[DCAngelsFan]

6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

while this takes into account whether a guy reaches the majors, it doesn't consider how good they are.  I would sacrifice floor for ceiling when it comes to position players.  

Sam Bachman is another guy who's interesting.  Reliever risk but if they think he can develop the change or any other third pitch...

I used a 3+ year major league career #'s to avoid the "cup of coffee" guys who don't stick - they could be replacement level or they could be Trout.  

Of course, the funny thing is, looking at draft retrospectives, the chances of any individual picks going on to be a significant 3+ WAR player is terribly small. 

 

[Chuck]

Baseball America's latest Mock Draft... Man I hope we get a college pitcher or lucky enough to draft C Henry Davis if he slips. 

[jsnpritchett]

41 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Baseball America's latest Mock Draft... Man I hope we get a college pitcher or lucky enough to draft C Henry Davis if he slips. 

Really hope it's not McLain.  Though maybe they're just drafting him to package him with Upton to dump his contract.  Wil Wilson 2.0?  (Yes, that's a joke...)

[Chuck]

3 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Really hope it's not McLain.  Though maybe they're just drafting him to package him with Upton to dump his contract.  Wil Wilson 2.0?  (Yes, that's a joke...)

Wouldn't it be great if Kumar Rocker has a couple dogshit performances prior to the draft and he slips to us? 

Pipe dream, although he did go from the consensus #1 pick down to 7th in BA's mock draft. 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

"This is the lowest we’ve mocked Rocker all spring, but there’s a very real possibility that he slides due to teams targeting hitters at the top of the draft. It’s worth noting that both Rocker and Leiter should have more time to push themselves back up draft boards than high school players and other college players who won’t play as deep into the postseason, so this could look like nothing more than wishful thinking in July if Rocker shoves."

[greginpsca]

If there was ever a year to avoid High School prospects, this is it.  I think i read where the draft will be 20 rounds. So, they should draft about 12 pitchers and 8 position players.

[John Smith]

 

 

 

JJ Cooper

 

@jjcoop36

 

Angels GM Perry Minasian among those checking out Miami's Sam Bachman vs. Ball State's Chayce McDermott outing today. So far Bachman (16 on BA Top 400 Draft Prospects) has gone 6.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 SO. McDermott (#198 and soon to climb) went 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 SO.

[DCAngelsFan]

1 hour ago, John Smith said:

 

 

 

JJ Cooper

 

@jjcoop36

 

Angels GM Perry Minasian among those checking out Miami's Sam Bachman vs. Ball State's Chayce McDermott outing today. So far Bachman (16 on BA Top 400 Draft Prospects) has gone 6.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 SO. McDermott (#198 and soon to climb) went 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 SO.

That's kind of interesting - do GM's often scout in-person?  

I mean, it's not like his work in the front office is "done" ...

Bachman, Madden, or in some alternate universe, Rocker - any would be awesome - I kind of hope Davis gets picked so we don't have to regret passing on him.

(Where do we think Hill might wind up now?  If Hoglund is gone by our 2nd pick - wonder if Hill might be worth a risk?)

How the eff does Tampa Bay get a competitive balance pick - we need it more than they do .... 

 

 

[Vlad27Trout27]

I know Scotty did a solid job on scouting for Bachman in the minor league thread (go look at it if you haven't) Personally for me the injury concerns he has had for me are big. 

 I Still have Maddon has my pick for number 9, he has a plus-plus combination with his Fastball/slider. There is a concern with a lack of a third pitch for both Maddon and Bachman. Madden for me has safe floor than Bachman, even if his upside is lower. 

 With Madden the upside is that of a solid 2, while the floor is there for him to be a 3. 

 

   

[Second Base]

19 hours ago, DCAngelsFan said:

That's kind of interesting - do GM's often scout in-person?  

I mean, it's not like his work in the front office is "done" ...

Bachman, Madden, or in some alternate universe, Rocker - any would be awesome - I kind of hope Davis gets picked so we don't have to regret passing on him.

(Where do we think Hill might wind up now?  If Hoglund is gone by our 2nd pick - wonder if Hill might be worth a risk?)

How the eff does Tampa Bay get a competitive balance pick - we need it more than they do .... 

 

 

Typically GM's are the last piece to start scouting a player. You'll start with a local scout (often a local coach), who feeds info on particularly good players to an area scout. The area scout takes a look and reports to a regional scout. If a player is that promising, the regional scout will drive sometimes 12 hours to catch a single game (honestly, they should really invest in helicopters). The regional scout reports to the national crosschecker, who will fly in to watch the kid play and compare that kid in rural Tennessee to the one playing in Southern California. The crosschecker reports to the scouting director who works in tandem with the GM to really narrow down their list of guys that they're interested in to just a few. The GM will typically personally be on hand to scout players they believe are available in the first couple rounds.

After the first few rounds, the GM relies mostly on the scouting director and cross checker to essentially make the picks for him, as he doesn't have time to personally scout their fifth round selection. 

And sometimes the number of players each GM may scout changes. As an example, Eppler worked as an amateur scout long before becoming a GM. So he liked to be on hand to personally scout a lot of players. I'm guessing Perry too, but I don't know that for sure. But Dipoto worked as a major league scout, I'm not sure he was as active in scouting amateurs, but this may simply be because they never had a first round pick. 

The significance of Perry scouting Bachman likely means he's one of 3-4 prospects the Angels are considering with their first pick. 

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

On 5/24/2021 at 12:23 PM, sportstr44 said:

9

Matt McLain

UCLASS

Notes:

We’ve heard the Angels like both Bubba Chandler and Jackson Jobe, so there’s a real possibility they go the high school route here. Sources also seem to think that there’s a solid chance McLain goes among the top 10 picks given his performance prior to sustaining a thumb injury. The college shortstops fall off extremely quickly once McLain is off the board.

Wonder if Chandler uses that Troy Percival mix for grip...

[Chuck]

I like this type of action and swagger on the mound! 

[Angels 1961]

23 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I like this type of action and swagger on the mound! 

Reminds me of Mark Fidrych

[Angel Oracle]

As good as McLain was before the thumb injury, do they want to draft him over a solid college pitcher or a catcher like Davis if available.

There are already plenty of good SS prospects in the org. 

[jsnpritchett]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-2?t=mlb-draft-coverage

MLB.com posted their updated mock draft yesterday.  Meh...

9. Angels: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS (Lewisberry, Pa.)
The safe bet would be a college bat like Sal Frelick from Boston College or Matt McLain from UCLA, but this week I’m going with Montgomery in a “this year’s Jo Adell type pick” guess.

EDIT:  And here's the MLB.com report on him:

"The state of Pennsylvania has done a good job of producing some exciting high school talent over the last few years, with Austin Hendrick from the Pittsburgh area going in the first round in 2020 and the Siani brothers, Mike and Sammy, commanding $2 million or more in 2018 and '19. The torch should be passed to Montgomery in 2021 after a summer where the outfielder showed off one of the best sets of raw tools in the class.

Hailing from just outside the state capital in Harrisburg, Montgomery does a lot of things really well on the baseball field. All summer long, he showed off his close to top-of-the-scale speed (some scouts have 80 run times for him) and his tremendous raw power that helped him win the Perfect Game All-American Classic Home Run Derby. The main concern with the Virginia recruit had been with his ability to get to that power, with a bit of a rigid swing and flat bat path.

Though he lacks fluidity in his swing, the 6-foot-4 right-handed hitter did a very good job of making contact against good competition on the summer showcase circuit. A premium, fast-twitch athlete, Montgomery is a plus defender with an outstanding work ethic. He reminds some of Jayson Werth from his amateur days and will go to the team that believes the bat will play at the next level."

Edited June 3, 2021 by jsnpritchett

[Lou]

In before we need pitching. 

[greginpsca]

On 5/26/2021 at 8:30 PM, greginpsca said:

If there was ever a year to avoid High School prospects, this is it.  I think i read where the draft will be 20 rounds. So, they should draft about 12 pitchers and 8 position players.