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14 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

First, to reply to Scotty.

1. Maybe. I guess.

2. No way.

3. He's got the talent, so it is possible. Maybe.

4. Calls for the demise of the Astros are premature. They won't be the powerhouse they were in 2017-19, but they'll win 85+ games.

5. You know, I almost started a fearless predictions thread and this was going to be one of mine. Hope its true.

6. Vague, but yeah, I could see it.

Mine:

1. Andrew Heaney has his best season as an Angel and is their best starter. The Angels sign him to an extension mid-season, and then he goes back to the Heaney we know and love in 2022 and beyond; well, somewhat better, but never as good as 2021, which ends up being his career year. 15-8, 3.57 ERA, 4.5 WAR.

2. The Angels Rotation is surprisingly good. Something like: Heaney 3.57 ERA, 4.3 WAR; Bundy 3.74, 4.1; Quintana 3.93, 3.7, Canning 3.97, 2.8; Cobb 4.32, 1.3; Ohtani 3.37, 2.4.

3. The year ends with a starting OF of Adell-Trout-Marsh. Brandon Marsh ends up with more PA than any outfielder other than Trout. Upton spends time in LF, DH, on the IL, and on the bench. Fowler is Fowler - OK, I guess, but not good enough to block Marsh/Adell. Final Marsh stats: .281/.347/.452, 14 HR, 2.8 WAR in 92 games. Final Adell stats: .252/.307/.490, 14 HR, 1.2 WAR in 58 games.

4. David Fletcher wins the Batting Title. Take that, Iglesuckas. .327/.402/.441, just edging out DJ LeMahieu.

5. Mike Trout hits 50 HR. Finally. .292/.437/.640, 50 HR, 9 WAR = 3rd MVP.

6. Angels win 91 games and AL West. Fearless, right?

#3 doesn't seem very bold to me.

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To be fair, there is enough negativity in all the other threads this one should get a pass.

You said bold predictions for 2021 so here we go with 10: 1- Ohtani wins comeback player of the year. I actually don't think this is too bold of a prediction. He just needs to stay healthy. Let's

Andrelton Simmons: 5.3 fWAR Jose Iglesias: 1.2 fWAR Angels miss the playoffs by 4.1 games.

21 hours ago, Tank said:

this is an oddly random yet specific prediction.

Indeed it is. I was thinking, Iglesias hit something like .370 least year in 30 games or something, and had hit .300 a couple times before that, but also doesn't reach base for sh__ unless he's hitting for average.

Edited by Second Base
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Oh, neat. 

1. The rotation clocks in 6th in the AL, 11th in MLB in terms of WAR (not ERA). 

2. Ohtani stays healthy all year. 120 IP, 3.70 ERA, 10 K/9; 20 HR, 75 RBI, .850 OPS. 

3. Detmers sails through AA and skips AAA altogether, coming up first to do long relief in August. Rodriguez goes slowly, but comes up in September to the bullpen. 

4. The Angels trade for a catcher in season. 

5. The Angels trade for an Jon Gray for a playoff push, giving up Aaron Hernandez and Livan Soto. AW message boards go nuts about how much potential Soto had. 

6. The Angels have a top 5 AL bullpen. 

7. Walsh, Trout, Rendon, Upton, and Ohtani all hit 20+ HR

8. Brandon Marsh gets promoted first as Adell's K's are a little too high. He begins playing every other day. 

9. Jordyn Adams turns a lot of heads and is a mid-season Top 100 prospect.

10. The Angels win the division. 

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Please keep in mind gents, these are meant to be bold predictions, ones that aren't necessarily likely to come to fruition.

And not all are positive. From mine alone - Upton failing, Iglesias OB skills not improving, no mention of extensions, work stoppages, no mention of the playoffs. 

 

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Halos do not sign Rosenthal, Petit, Jeffress or Clippard but still find a way to get in playoffs. Buttrey has huge year and saves game 4 against the Dodgers. Halos sweep Dodgers in WS and Cobb is voted MVP. Trevor Bauer gets into shouting match with Dave Roberts after he is pulled in game 3. Many fans on AW go to Vegas to collect money they bet on halos. 

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22 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Is Scotty vetting the boldness of the predictions? 

It's just making conversation. I do think it's more likely Adell replaced Upton in 2021 than not. 

I don't picture Upton making it through the year. Not being bold or anything, you just have an aging veteran not performing and a super prospect in AAA. 

The end result is a regular occurrence I think. 

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5 minutes ago, Second Base said:

It's just making conversation. I do think it's more likely Adell replaced Upton in 2021 than not. 

I don't picture Upton making it through the year. Not being bold or anything, you just have an aging veteran not performing and a super prospect in AAA. 

The end result is a regular occurrence I think. 

Just messing with you. 

We'll see about Upton - I really have no idea. I could see him having a bit of a resurgence. I could also see more of the same or worse, with him ending up losing his job. You voiced my secret hope, which is that the Angels find some way to trade him, although they'll have to send a big chunk of cash with him.

That said, I do think that the Angels will dump him after this year. I suppose we can hope that he plays well enough that they can save $8M or so on him in a trade (say, Upton +$20M for whatever). If he bounces back, someone might want him for 1/$8M.

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On 2/21/2021 at 7:51 AM, Stradling said:

Upton has an .850 OPS 

Ohtani goes 9-4 with a 3.60 ERA over 120 innings

Angels trade for Johnny Cueto for the stretch drive with SF picking up $5 million of his remaining salary.  

I like these, except replace you misspelled Walsh in your first prediction.

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16 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Just messing with you. 

We'll see about Upton - I really have no idea. I could see him having a bit of a resurgence. I could also see more of the same or worse, with him ending up losing his job. You voiced my secret hope, which is that the Angels find some way to trade him, although they'll have to send a big chunk of cash with him.

That said, I do think that the Angels will dump him after this year. I suppose we can hope that he plays well enough that they can save $8M or so on him in a trade (say, Upton +$20M for whatever). If he bounces back, someone might want him for 1/$8M.

I think you may have me confused with someone else with Upton. I said Upton would be put on waivers and released. The Angels will pick up the salary. I don't think anyone will take him and any of his salary on, plus he has a NTC. 

Maddon already showed that he'd bench Upton if he doesn't perform, which to Maddon's credit, I don't think Scioscia ever would've done, to his detriment. Maddon seems more open to creating an avenue for younger players than Scioscia did.

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23 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I think you may have me confused with someone else with Upton. I said Upton would be put on waivers and released. The Angels will pick up the salary. I don't think anyone will take him and any of his salary on, plus he has a NTC. 

Maddon already showed that he'd bench Upton if he doesn't perform, which to Maddon's credit, I don't think Scioscia ever would've done, to his detriment. Maddon seems more open to creating an avenue for younger players than Scioscia did.

Nothing we predict has any sway over what actually happens. But being able to trade Upton and pick up even 80-90% of his salary only increase the amount of spending/flexibility for 2022. If he has a decent start to the year, I think they should try and find a Fowler type of deal with somebody that has an absolutely awful corner OF situation. 

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13 minutes ago, ThisismineScios said:

Nothing we predict has any sway over what actually happens. But being able to trade Upton and pick up even 80-90% of his salary only increase the amount of spending/flexibility for 2022. If he has a decent start to the year, I think they should try and find a Fowler type of deal with somebody that has an absolutely awful corner OF situation. 

I think that's still entirely reliant upon Upton waiving his NTC, which I think when he signed the extension, one of his major reasons was wanting to be near his family. Assuming his family still lives in the area (I think they have a home in Arizona too) I don't picture Upton waiving the NTC to any teams other than San Diego, LA or Arizona, ask three of which don't appear to be in the market for an OF. 

But I agree with you. If they can trade him, go ahead, I just don't think they can. 

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Yup.

This talk about trading Upton or waiving him, etc. is like all the talk about Pujols over the last 10 years about hoping he wouldn't play out his contract or the Angels waiving him, buying him out, etc.  It's wishful thinking by some Angel fans.

Edited by T.G.
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There is 100% better odds that he has a resurgence than there is of him being traded.  I also think the odds of him being released between now and the All Star break of 2022 are less than 5%.  He was absolute horse shit for 18 games last year, however from August 24th until the end of the season, he had the 2nd highest OPS on the team, behind only Walsh. Better than Trout, better than Rendon, better than Ohtani.  Sadly he was so bad for 18 games, it has a lot of people giving up on him.  

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1 hour ago, T.G. said:

Yup.

This talk about trading Upton or waiving him, etc. is like all the talk about Pujols over the last 10 years about hoping he wouldn't play out his contract or the Angels waiving him, buying him out, etc.  It's wishful thinking by some Angel fans.

Don’t get the Upton hate. He had a down year.

76 PA 67 AB 14 R 19 H 12 HR 14 BB 14 SO .284 / .368/ .567/ .936 OPS

looks a lot like 

95 PA 86 AB 18 R 29 H 9 HR 5 BB 13 BB .337 / .368. /. 744 / 1.113

and everyone is crowning Walsh as a sure fire starter at 1B. 
 

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I also think we need to be bolder in the predictions.

1) Walsh hits 40 HR

2) Trout hits 50 HR

3) Ohtani is sub 3.00 ERA as a starter and hits to a .300 average as a hitter. 

4) Angels have 8 players with over 20 HR.

5) Adell isn’t called up until September.

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1 hour ago, Hubs said:

I also think we need to be bolder in the predictions.

1) Walsh hits 40 HR

2) Trout hits 50 HR

3) Ohtani is sub 3.00 ERA as a starter and hits to a .300 average as a hitter. 

4) Angels have 8 players with over 20 HR.

5) Adell isn’t called up until September.

Very bold. I recently read an article breaking down the differences the new deadened ball should make. Ultimately, the author(s) came to the conclusion that hitters with a longer HR distance will be relatively unaffected by the ball change, it's the hitters with shorter distanced HR's with lower exit velocity that will suffer. Hitters with shorter distanced HR's with a higher exit velocity will likely see an increase in doubles and decrease in HR's, while BA/OBP should remain relatively unchanged. 

Essentially, it's the guys that just backspin and loft the ball over the wall that will see the most drastic decreases in production. Like Upton. 

- Walsh hitting 40 bombs seems unlikely. He falls into the third category where his higher exit velocity probably results in a huge uptick in doubles and a decrease in HR rate. I'm thinking 35 DB 25 HR. 

- Trout hits 50 HR's seems within reason. It is bold and thus, I don't think it's likely (I love the boldness of it though). My guess is Trout's rates remain relatively unchanged and he hits 40-45 bombs. 

- Anything is possible with Ohtani, if he's healthy. He is was never really the high BA type even in Japan, and his HR distance suggests he won't be affected offensively by the new ball. But it certainly could help him as a pitcher.

- This got me thinking, which eight players will exceed 20? The shoe ins if your believe in our 1B and LF are Walsh, Rendon, Upton, and Trout. So four others.... Maybe Stassi's breakout is real and he gets enough PT. Fowler could make six, particularly with the short porch. Ohtani makes seven.....

- Makes sense, if Ward and Fowler get the job done, Adell struggles or Marsh passes him in the depth chart, these could all push him back to September, easily.

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 Brandon Marsh kills it in ST and can't be denied, starts 100 games and hits .286 with 21 HRs. Fowler get 50 plus starts and doesn't disappoint with timely hitting and becomes a fan favorite. Makes money doing local tv commercials.  

Canning and Ohtani combine for 31 wins.

Barria becomes the 7th/8th inning specialist with 1.1 ERA. Makes All-Star Team.   

Trout hits 51 bombs and Rendon adds 33 more. 

Angels win WS. 

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9 minutes ago, Rollinghard said:

 Brandon Marsh kills it in ST and can't be denied, starts 100 games and hits .286 with 21 HRs. Fowler get 50 plus starts and doesn't disappoint with timely hitting and becomes a fan favorite. Makes money doing local tv commercials.  

Canning and Ohtani combine for 31 wins.

Barria becomes the 7th/8th inning specialist with 1.1 ERA. Makes All-Star Team.   

Trout hits 51 bombs and Rendon adds 33 more. 

Angels win WS. 

WHAT?

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18 hours ago, Second Base said:

Very bold. I recently read an article breaking down the differences the new deadened ball should make. Ultimately, the author(s) came to the conclusion that hitters with a longer HR distance will be relatively unaffected by the ball change, it's the hitters with shorter distanced HR's with lower exit velocity that will suffer. Hitters with shorter distanced HR's with a higher exit velocity will likely see an increase in doubles and decrease in HR's, while BA/OBP should remain relatively unchanged. 

Essentially, it's the guys that just backspin and loft the ball over the wall that will see the most drastic decreases in production. Like Upton. 

- Walsh hitting 40 bombs seems unlikely. He falls into the third category where his higher exit velocity probably results in a huge uptick in doubles and a decrease in HR rate. I'm thinking 35 DB 25 HR. 

- Trout hits 50 HR's seems within reason. It is bold and thus, I don't think it's likely (I love the boldness of it though). My guess is Trout's rates remain relatively unchanged and he hits 40-45 bombs. 

- Anything is possible with Ohtani, if he's healthy. He is was never really the high BA type even in Japan, and his HR distance suggests he won't be affected offensively by the new ball. But it certainly could help him as a pitcher.

- This got me thinking, which eight players will exceed 20? The shoe ins if your believe in our 1B and LF are Walsh, Rendon, Upton, and Trout. So four others.... Maybe Stassi's breakout is real and he gets enough PT. Fowler could make six, particularly with the short porch. Ohtani makes seven.....

- Makes sense, if Ward and Fowler get the job done, Adell struggles or Marsh passes him in the depth chart, these could all push him back to September, easily.

The eight 20 HR players in my

BOLD prediction would be 

Trout, Rendon, Upton, Walsh, Ohtani, Pujols, are the 6 I came up with first. Then 2 of Ward or Fowler or Adell or Marsh. 
 

(Ward has hit them in AA and AAA, just hasn’t developed power in majors and Fowler has had seasons with 17, 18, and 19).

Fletcher, Iglesias, Lagares, and Jay obviously won’t. But Thaiss also could if he gets playing time. Stassi and Suzuki might combine for 20. 
 

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