Pecota standings projected

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

Anyone have the links on how accurate PECOTA was the last five years?

They have pretty much nailed the Angels the last few years

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

They have pretty much nailed the Angels the last few years

I thought they had the Angels at about 84 wins last year.  

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, CanadianHalo said:

What’s their deal with the White Sox? Would have to think they’re a lock for a WC spot at minimum 

Lots of young players, that's where projections are most volatile.

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

I thought they had the Angels at about 84 wins last year.  

They redid them right before the start of the season to account for the unbalanced divisional play and they had them under .500. 

Not sure why, but Pecota standings have been really good even while their player projections have been spotty.

Remember when everyone was losing their shit about them picking the Cubs to finish third and only win 85 games in 2018?  They finished third and won 84.

[Stradling]

Just now, Inside Pitch said:

They redid them right before the start of the season to account for the unbalanced divisional play and they had them under .500. 

Not sure why, but Pecota standings have been really good even while their player projections have been spotty.

Remember when everyone was losing their shit about them picking the Cubs to finish third and only win 85 games in 2018?  They finished third and won 84.

oh ok.  I'm going to have a look at the pecota standings year over year.  

[Stradling]

I wonder if there is a way to look at their percentage of accuracy.  I looked at the Angels the last 5 years and outside of the last two years it was pretty damn accurate.

2020 PECOTA 31-29

2020 ACTUAL 26-34

2019 PECOTA 81-81

2019 ACTUAL 72-90

2018 PECOTA 79-83

2018 ACTUAL 80-82

2017 PECOTA 78-84

2017 ACTUAL 80-82

2016 PECOTA 75-87

2016 ACTUAL 74-88

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

I wonder if there is a way to look at their percentage of accuracy.  I looked at the Angels the last 5 years and outside of the last two years it was pretty damn accurate.

2020 PECOTA 31-29

2020 ACTUAL 26-34

2019 PECOTA 81-81

2019 ACTUAL 72-90

2018 PECOTA 79-83

2018 ACTUAL 80-82

2017 PECOTA 78-84

2017 ACTUAL 80-82

2016 PECOTA 75-87

2016 ACTUAL 74-88

That list is so depressing on a couple different levels.

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

I wonder if there is a way to look at their percentage of accuracy.  I looked at the Angels the last 5 years and outside of the last two years it was pretty damn accurate.

2020 PECOTA 31-29

2020 ACTUAL 26-34

2019 PECOTA 81-81

2019 ACTUAL 72-90

2018 PECOTA 79-83

2018 ACTUAL 80-82

2017 PECOTA 78-84

2017 ACTUAL 80-82

2016 PECOTA 75-87

2016 ACTUAL 74-88

For 2020, my suspicion is some guys underperformed early. Things were stabilizing near the end, but time just ran out. 
 

2019? Anyone have a theory?

[Cosmo_Kramer]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think the most we can say is that Arte likes making money more than winning. The two aren't mutually exclusive, obviously, but if he has to choose, he'll choose the money. 

So yeah, he could have offered Bauer 3/$150M, Realmuto 7/$210M, Hendricks 4/$100M, traded Adell and Detmers for Gray, and Marsh, Rodriguez, Adams, Jackson, Paris, Kochanowicz, and Yan for Luis Castillo. And yes, the Angels would probably win the AL West. But....well, you do the math.

Frankly, winning the world series isn't the goal for most team owners. It's not like Arte is an exception here.

[Taylor]

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

For 2020, my suspicion is some guys underperformed early. Things were stabilizing near the end, but time just ran out. 
 

2019? Anyone have a theory?

Didn't half the team get injured in 2019, including Trout for several months?

[T.G.]

Man, no love for Bill Pecota?  Not even from AO?  You guys suck.

[failos]

I’m jelly of the Dodgers

[Pancake Bear]

21 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Didn't half the team get injured in 2019, including Trout for several months?

Trout missed about 25 games. Simmons missed more time and wasn't great when he was healthy. Looking at it, it appears the biggest problems were pitching. Harvey and Cahill were a disaster. Skaggs died. And Doug White was doing his best to screw up everyone else. 

[failos]

These numbers should be pleasing though. I’d wager that if some of Minassian’s peanuts pan out this team could become a contender.

Edited February 9, 2021 by failos

[Taylor]

3 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Trout missed about 25 games. Simmons missed more time and wasn't great when he was healthy. Looking at it, it appears the biggest problems were pitching. Harvey and Cahill were a disaster. Skaggs died. And Doug White was doing his best to screw up everyone else. 

Oh yeah, that was that year. I've repressed it in my mind.

[totdprods]

Oakland is getting awfully close to the time where they deal someone like Chapman, Laureano, Olson, or Manaea. Could happen as soon as this year.

Not hard to envision Chapman to the Dodgers with a couple legit pitcher prospects and a legit hitting prospect going back.

[failos]

If we had Sosh this team would win 100 games easily.

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

Not sure why, but Pecota standings have been really good even while their player projections have been spotty.

The answer is due to the nature of small samples and large. The more data the easier it is to create a clearer picture.

If you are plus or minus 15% of an individual player it stands out. Now take that player and add 39 more with their variances for a roster and you see how it all evens out. Individual highs and lows are negated in the melting pot.

Where Pecota gets wrecked in the team stats is when Ohtani blows out his elbow, Heaney falls apart and Skaggs self medicates himself off the planet, both guys brought in to eat innings are dropped from the rotation by July. That Pecota can't build into an equation.

[BTH]

5 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

For 2020, my suspicion is some guys underperformed early. Things were stabilizing near the end, but time just ran out. 
 

2019? Anyone have a theory?

Well, Skaggs.

Besides that major factor, that game vs. Baltimore where they got closed out by Stevie Wilckerson was a huge blow. Canning had to pitch out of the pen, which messed up the rotation, and they lost a game they should've won to Baltimore, as Fletcher was safe but the umps called him out.

[Docwaukee]

7 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

For 2020, my suspicion is some guys underperformed early. Things were stabilizing near the end, but time just ran out. 
 

2019? Anyone have a theory?

2019 was Bour, Allen, Lucroy, Cahill and Harvey.  

Heaney led the team in starts with 18.  Skaggs died.  The team was actually 1 game below .500 when he died and went to 5 games over by july 24th.  Then they lost that 16 inning game against baltimore and the wheels came off.  They went 18-41 after that.  Ohtani, Trout and Upton took most of sept off. 

[tdawg87]

Holy shit 2019 sucked.

[Taylor]

Some of you guys have really good memories.

[Taylor]

Top paged! I don't remember what I was responding to.

[tdawg87]

Taylor gettin' tdawg'd.

[T.G.]

3 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Some of you guys have really big mamories.