The Athletic Fantasy Podcast surprise take on Angels rotation

[Erstad Grit]

They called it high potential but boring. They had far more optimism about Cobb and Ohtani than almost any Angel fan here. They were down on Bauer and high on Adel. (I think this was before Fowler trade)

Great to hear an objective site talk with some hope for our rotation. Nice little encouraging pick-me-up as we get closer to ST. Still hoping for for RP and even Odorizzi. 

 

[Angelsjunky]

The rotation will be solid, maybe pretty good. My moderate prediction would be something like:

Bundy: 3.70 ERA, 180 IP, 4 WAR

Quintana: 3.80 ERA, 180 IP, 3 WAR

Heaney: 4.20 ERA, 170 IP, 2.5 WAR

Canning: 4.00 ERA, 150 IP, 2.5 WAR

Cobb: 4.50 ERA, 130 IP, 1.0 WAR

Ohtani: 3.50 ERA, 90 IP, 2 WAR

Maybe better, maybe worse. Adjust for injuries, with starts added for Barria, Sandoval, etc.

[Lou]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Maybe better, maybe worse

Nope. You are exactly correct. 

Well done.

[Taylor]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

Nope. You are exactly correct. 

Well done.

He might be correct, or he might not.

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

The rotation will be solid, maybe pretty good. My moderate prediction would be something like:

Bundy: 3.70 ERA, 180 IP, 4 WAR

Quintana: 3.80 ERA, 180 IP, 3 WAR

Heaney: 4.20 ERA, 170 IP, 2.5 WAR

Canning: 4.00 ERA, 150 IP, 2.5 WAR

Cobb: 4.50 ERA, 130 IP, 1.0 WAR

Ohtani: 3.50 ERA, 90 IP, 2 WAR

Maybe better, maybe worse. Adjust for injuries, with starts added for Barria, Sandoval, etc.

I think this is pretty close to what they expect. I think almost all the ERA’s could be 0.25 higher (except Quintana) at best. I also think the innings for Cobb go up by 35 and Ohtani go up by 25. That would be 960 Innings over say 152 starts, with Barria and Sandoval and Detmers getting say 10 starts total. This should average out to a 4- 4.5 ERA with slightly less innings, Say 1010 innings total so 50 Innings total on these 10 Starts.

Again, above would be best case. 6.1 IP would be fantastic average for these guys. More likely my 60 Innings above for Cobb and Ohtani likely Come out of the other 900. So 950 or so over 162 is 5.86 IP. 
 

This is about 420-450 runs from the starters with a pen that even at a 4.00 ERA would be 640-670 earned runs allowed. If they are sub 700, then they’re a playoff team as they will score 800-850 with this lineup.

 

[Erstad Grit]

31 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I think this is pretty close to what they expect. I think almost all the ERA’s could be 0.25 higher (except Quintana) at best. I also think the innings for Cobb go up by 35 and Ohtani go up by 25. That would be 960 Innings over say 152 starts, with Barria and Sandoval and Detmers getting say 10 starts total. This should average out to a 4- 4.5 ERA with slightly less innings, Say 1010 innings total so 50 Innings total on these 10 Starts.

Again, above would be best case. 6.1 IP would be fantastic average for these guys. More likely my 60 Innings above for Cobb and Ohtani likely Come out of the other 900. So 950 or so over 162 is 5.86 IP. 
 

This is about 420-450 runs from the starters with a pen that even at a 4.00 ERA would be 640-670 earned runs allowed. If they are sub 700, then they’re a playoff team as they will score 800-850 with this lineup.

 

I think Bundy could even do better than this projection 

[Pancake Bear]

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

The rotation will be solid, maybe pretty good. My moderate prediction would be something like:

Bundy: 3.70 ERA, 180 IP, 4 WAR

Quintana: 3.80 ERA, 180 IP, 3 WAR

Heaney: 4.20 ERA, 170 IP, 2.5 WAR

Canning: 4.00 ERA, 150 IP, 2.5 WAR

Cobb: 4.50 ERA, 130 IP, 1.0 WAR

Ohtani: 3.50 ERA, 90 IP, 2 WAR

Maybe better, maybe worse. Adjust for injuries, with starts added for Barria, Sandoval, etc.

I think innings may be high all around, given the short 2020. I also suspect you're short selling Cobb. Don't think he does worse in the crappy AL West than the East (he didn't get to play the Orioles to pad his stats, either) given that there are no immediate signs of decline. You're also higher on Quintana and Canning than I am. Ohtani feels like a crapshoot to me. I have no idea what to expect. 

[Docwaukee]

personally think Bundy ends up pretty mediocre in 2021.  

[Vlad27Trout27]

I think Canning will have breakout year. 

Last year we saw flash. If he get his Slider back and stays HEALTHY, watch out. 

 

[Angels 1961]

Angels win AL west this year, Barria becomes big part of rotation. Angel fans are glad he was not traded.

[Junkballer]

20 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

I think Canning will have breakout year. 

Last year we saw flash. If he get his Slider back and stays HEALTHY, watch out. 

 

That's the thing with Canning, his elbow issue that he termed as "things rubbing around in there" was addressed by PRP, which has a spotty record for providing long-term solutions as far as I know.  Hopefully he is managed well and Ohtani regains his pitching mojo.

[Junkballer]

20 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

I think Canning will have breakout year. 

Last year we saw flash. If he get his Slider back and stays HEALTHY, watch out. 

 

That's the thing with Canning, his elbow issue that he termed as "things rubbing around in there" was addressed by PRP, which has a spotty record for providing long-term solutions as far as I know.  Hopefully he is managed well and Ohtani regains his pitching mojo.

[tdawg87]

Negative predictions:

• Canning will be the annual TJ surgery, probably after 2 starts.
• Heaney will miss 15 starts.
• Bundy will regress and miss 8-10 starts.
• Walsh will regress significantly and Pujols will play more games.
• Fowler does really well the first month and a half before a hammy injury takes him out for a month. He comes back and can't put it together.

Positive predictions:

• Ohtani bounces back and pitches 80 innings and puts up a 125 OPS+
• Cobb is our best pitcher, putting up a 110 ERA+ over 160 innings.
• Quintana leads the team in innings with 175 and an ERA around 4.20
• Trout and Rendon will finish 1 and 2 in WAR. 
• Raisel Iglesias has a career year, saving 40+ games with an ERA in the low 2s.
• Barria picks up where he left off last year, pitching 15-20 starts with an ERA just below 4.
• Sandoval impresses and makes a dozen starts or so with an ERA around 4.
• Detmers comes up in September and makes 5 starts. He'll only pitch 20 innings but pretty much guarantee a spot in the 2022 rotation.
• Upton rebounds and hits 25 homers with an OPS around .780.
• Pujols retires early.
• Angels win the weak division with 89 wins.

[Taylor]

38 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Angels win AL west this year, Barria becomes big part of rotation. Angel fans are glad he was not traded.

Did your contact at the LA Times tell you this?

[Warfarin]

57 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Negative predictions:

• Walsh will regress significantly and Pujols will play more games.

Positive predictions:

• Pujols retires early.

Oh, I see, that's just "galaxy brain" Maddon at work - he starts Pujols a lot of games in the beginning to wear him down into submission and retirement.  Maddon is a genius

[Warfarin]

I recall someone showing stats indicating we actually had a good rotation last year except for the guys we rotated through that 5th spot.  And it wasn't that those guys were just not good or bad - they were spectacularly awful, with an ERA over 9.  

Minasian seems to be casting a wide net and bringing in an array of guys who should be at least average.  He needs to have enough options in place such that if one does shit the bed, like Eppler's choices did, the FO/Maddon can pivot to someone else quickly.

So I agree - as currently constructed, the pitching staff looks pretty decent.  I'd like another pitcher to help further safeguard against injury and ineffectiveness.

Likely someone will get hurt and be out for a very long stretch of time.  We will need depth to get us through the year.  Minasian has amassed a decent amount of it, and hopefully, he can find one more.

[UndertheHalo]

I don’t have any expectations.  It could be fine, it could be dog shit.  This is how it’s been for the last several years.  I think that mostly, Quintana and Cobb offer more depth rather than substantially improved quality.  Quintana could be decent.  I don’t think Cobb will be good.  If he’s reasonably serviceable that will be a win.  Ohtani, who knows.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he fails to make 10 starts.  If he does better than that it wouldn’t be surprising either.  The Angels didn’t get it done this off-season in this area.  Again. 
 

i think we might be reasonably safe expecting that the bullpen will be better.  

Edited February 7, 2021 by UndertheHalo

[Angelsjunky]

15 hours ago, Dochalo said:

personally think Bundy ends up pretty mediocre in 2021.  

It is a concern, although then would make an extension either easier to decide on and/or cheaper.

But I feel good that at least some of his gains are legit. I don't think we can extrapolate his 2.0 WAR in 11 starts last year to 5.5+ in 30 starts in 2021, but what about 4? His FIP last year is encouraging: 2.95.

I think the most likely range of outcomes is in the 3-4 WAR range, more likely towards the upper end and just as much chances of being in the 4-5 WAR range as the 2-3.

[Erstad Grit]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Negative predictions:

• Canning will be the annual TJ surgery, probably after 2 starts.
• Heaney will miss 15 starts.
• Bundy will regress and miss 8-10 starts.
• Walsh will regress significantly and Pujols will play more games.
• Fowler does really well the first month and a half before a hammy injury takes him out for a month. He comes back and can't put it together.

Positive predictions:

• Ohtani bounces back and pitches 80 innings and puts up a 125 OPS+
• Cobb is our best pitcher, putting up a 110 ERA+ over 160 innings.
• Quintana leads the team in innings with 175 and an ERA around 4.20
• Trout and Rendon will finish 1 and 2 in WAR. 
• Raisel Iglesias has a career year, saving 40+ games with an ERA in the low 2s.
• Barria picks up where he left off last year, pitching 15-20 starts with an ERA just below 4.
• Sandoval impresses and makes a dozen starts or so with an ERA around 4.
• Detmers comes up in September and makes 5 starts. He'll only pitch 20 innings but pretty much guarantee a spot in the 2022 rotation.
• Upton rebounds and hits 25 homers with an OPS around .780.
• Pujols retires early.
• Angels win the weak division with 89 wins.

Canning arm problems is probably top of my list of concerns 

[eligrba]

15 hours ago, Dochalo said:

personally think Bundy ends up pretty mediocre in 2021.  

I suspect it will depend on the bullpen whether Bundy ends up with improved or mediocre stats in 2021.  All signs point to improvement since Bedrosian isn't around to give up the big hit at the worst time.

[totdprods]

I get so much Richards deja vu from Canning.

Someone we keep expecting to either ascend to something special or at the very least be a rotation fixture only to be let down every season, do to a TJ or recurring injuries/shutdowns that cost him a couple months each year. 

If I can get a Hendricks, Gray, or Marquez for him I’m doing it in a heartbeat at this point. 

[totdprods]

I think Bundy will regress, but only because he’ll have to face some teams outside of the AL West. He was always very good against AL West teams (exception Angels) so it wasn’t terribly surprising he did well last year. Exceeded expectations? Absolutely, but I thought he’d be around a 3.75-4 guy. 

Wouldn’t surprise me if he got beat around a bit outside of the division in ‘21 and was more around the 3.75-4.25 guy I thought he’d be last year. If he makes it to 180-200 innings, that’s a-okay to me. I have a lot of faith in the offense and the rotation’s depth this year. 

Edited February 7, 2021 by totdprods

[T.G.]

2 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

Canning arm problems is probably top of my list of concerns 

More than COVID-19?

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, T.G. said:

More than COVID-19?

You can't put a mask on an elbow.

[tdawg87]

I feel like I'm stalking you.