What can we make of Minasian so far?

[Second Base]

Stoneman wouldn't trade, even when it made a great deal of sense. He hoarded prospects.

Reagins would fail in Free Agency, and then overpay in trades.

Dipoto would make meaningless trades that end up costing very good major leaguers, would draft a glut of college relievers early in the draft that peak in AA/AAA, and sign aging free agents for hundred of millions of dollars that would fall on their face in Anaheim. 

Eppler would draft a high school outfielder that played football, and sign aging players to a one year deal, 99% of which wouldn't last the season before being DFA'd.

These are all very generalized descriptions of each GM this century. They don't tell 100% of the story, but they aren't inaccurate either. This leads me to the question, how would we describe Minasian so far, given the body of work? Obviously, it's too early to see how he would draft. If he chooses to keep Swanson around, as he probably should, then drafts might not change much. And I'm not taking into account what they did in Atlanta or Toronto because it's difficult to know if he had much of an influence in their decisions. 

1. Raisel Iglesias and Jose Iglesias - These acquisitions tell me that Minasian knows a buy-low opportunity when he sees it. Jose Iglesias basically recreates Andrelton Simmons (a little less glove and a little more bat) for 7 million less than Simmons got from Minnesota. It did cost Stallings, which sucks, but he's not an irreplaceable prospect. He's a low end prospect Ave by comparison, the Giants essentially bought the Angels first round selection Will Wilson for 7 million.

Raisel Iglesias will cost the Angels 7 million after we consider the money that was sent with him, and shedding the money owed to Noe Ramirez. And seeing as lesser relievers are signing for considerably more than Raisel is making, this early aggressive move proves that his early judgment on value seems to be accurate. 

2. Jose Quintana says a little in its context as well. First, it says that his moves may be similar to Eppler's on the surface. Yes, that's disappointing and frustrating, but it doesn't mean they'll flounder in the same way every Eppler one year acquisition did. It also reiterates the value that Minasian recognizes. 1/8 isn't a steal for Quintana by any means. He's a back end starter and if you need one in free agency, that's pretty much the going rate, or at least it should be. But when you compare Quintana's contract to what Richards for from Boston, Kluber in New York, Smyly in Atlanta, and Ray in Toronto, suddenly, Quintana for 1/8 to the Angels seems like they saved a couple million. 

3. Kurt Suzuki - I think a move like this indicates Minasian's understanding of the need for a veteran catcher to guide a young pitching staff. Suzuki is that guy, and again, it appears the Angels got a solid value in him, for only 1.5 million, when he had richer offers on the table. 

4. Alex Claudio - Some teams have moved away from lefty specialists, some still have them. The relievers that have signed, that are forces against LHH, like Aaron Loup have signed for more. So Minasian saw the value early on and wanted to provide Callaway and Maddon a weapon they can use in the bullpen, and it came cheap.

5. The moves that he didn't make. It's no secret the Angels could've used Darvish, Snell and Musgrove. But those guys would've cost top prospects. He held onto them, in a manner than Eppler and Stoneman would've. It sucks, because hoarding prospects will preclude a team from acquiring elite players, but it's also the only sustainable way of building be a winner. 

Is there anything I'm missing here? He sees value in the market, doesn't overpay and seems hesitant to part ways with prospects. He also recognizes the need for veteran leadership.

 

 

[floplag]

IMO nothing yet.  The job is obviously incomplete.  but, to be fair hes made some smart/good/fiscally responsible moves to date, but if he fails to address the elephant in the room it will be hard to call it a success. 

[Torridd]

Unfortunately, it seems just like Eppler, and I wonder if that means it was Arte all the time. 

[greginpsca]

To be honest, i think it is too early to make any judgements, as he is not yet done from what we know. Even then, we need to see the finished product results on the field. That said, because of payroll inflexibility, i see similarities to Eppler and Stoneman. Perry & Eppler were hampered by payroll restrictions and appear to be following similar paths. Stoneman was expected to clean house for a full rebuild when he was hired. But after getting a closer look at what he had, he liked the nucleus and went from there to fill holes. I think Perry has a similar view on the nucleus of the 40 man roster and farm. We shall see what happens. 

[jsnpritchett]

[ten ocho recon scout]

No way to make any judgements of him yet.

We have no idea what the trade market is. And covid is a bigger deal than i think people are acknowledging.... taking on huge deals right now i think is very risky.

It may be behind us next year and things go back to normal.... buuuut thats just an assumption.

I think with trout and rendon, you have to balance that with cheap, in house options. Regardless of pujols and upton leaving soon. And in order to do that, it takes us out of the huge trades wed like to see

[BTH]

The only thing that I can make of Minasian so far is that he has been able to surround himself with more front office talent than I believe Eppler ever did.

First and foremost, he brought in three well-regarded Senior Advisors/AGM's from other organizations in Alex Tamin, Gene Watson, and Ray Montgomery.

I'd imagine that there will also be more additions than the other's we've seen so far (Parker, Chiti, Wiliams) and I hope that an improved front office as a whole should help the team succeed in the long run.

[Angelsjunky]

With the obvious caveat that it is too soon to tell, he doesn't seem that different from Eppler so far. Bargain hunty, savvy-at-the-time moves, no big splashes.

I really like the Quintana signing, like Suzuki, and am fine with the two Iglesiases and Claudio, if not wowed. But this could all be out of the Eppler playbook. Whether he's a better judge of ability than Eppler as far as pitching is concerned, remains to be seen, but I much prefer Quintana to Harvey/Cahill/Teheran. Better track record, not an overpriced reclamation project (crazy that the Angels gave Harvey $11M).

We also don't know anything about his drafting strategy, so there's that.

[Warfarin]

45 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

With the obvious caveat that it is too soon to tell, he doesn't seem that different from Eppler so far. Bargain hunty, savvy-at-the-time moves, no big splashes.

I really like the Quintana signing, like Suzuki, and am fine with the two Iglesiases and Claudio, if not wowed. But this could all be out of the Eppler playbook. Whether he's a better judge of ability than Eppler as far as pitching is concerned, remains to be seen, but I much prefer Quintana to Harvey/Cahill/Teheran. Better track record, not an overpriced reclamation project (crazy that the Angels gave Harvey $11M).

We also don't know anything about his drafting strategy, so there's that.

There are a lot of bargain hunters out there.  One could be a very good bargain hunter, and another very bad.

Only time will tell if Minasian is better or worse at it than Eppler.

And that last sentence is the key thing.  Minasian's career here will likely be made or broken by his ability to draft well and have a strong player development system in place.  Hopefully, he can bring the knowledge he gained working in TOR and ATL and help bring those systems over here, as it does appear he has come from two teams who are rather strong at that process.

[Inside Pitch]

6 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

And that last sentence is the key thing.  Minasian's career here will likely be made or broken by his ability to draft well and have a strong player development system in place.  Hopefully, he can bring the knowledge he gained working in TOR and ATL and help bring those systems over here, as it does appear he has come from two teams who are rather strong at that process.

Minasian's success is going to be built on how good a job Eppler did at rebuilding the foundation of this franchise.  Much like he was undone by Dipoto's failures there.

[Angels in 2030]

it's too early in this off-season to even make a determination on him for this off-season.  So it's incomplete.  Having said that, so far from what we've done, it sure seems like team that is more in the long-term 2-3+ years out phase while still trying to be competitive right now (without going all-in).  So pretty much the same organizational mindset as last couple years.  Now all that can change drastically with a FA signing here and trade there.  But they've made minor changes -- decrease at SS, increase at closer, slight increase at SP, nothing at RF, even or less at BP (besides closer).  Basically all the adds for 2021 are one year deals.  So no improvement (except salary flexibility) to the team beyond 2021 -- maybe some extension are coming which will change this but nothing so far.  I'm not so sure i'd be all that happy about the 2021+ direction of the team FO/ownership-wise if I were Trout/Rendon.  Waiting for proposects to come make a difference.

[Second Base]

7 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Minasian's success is going to be built on how good a job Eppler did at rebuilding the foundation of this franchise.  Much like he was undone by Dipoto's failures there.

Agreed completely. Eppler inherited a farm that yielded little at the major league level. Fletcher was his. But the rest, Walsh, Ward, Adell, Thaiss, Barria were relatively inconsequential. And he was hamstrung by Dipoto's contracts, forcing him to buy low on everything and take on risk. 

Minasian is inheriting a team with a lot of money coming off the books in the next couple of years, a stronger farm system and a team with young talent like Fletcher, Ohtani, Walsh and Canning. 

[Pancake Bear]

Two thoughts:

First, Eppler would have been hard to rate based on early work because he seemed to be going to the Dipoto route by trading Aybar and our best pitching prospect for Simmons. 

Also, it's a stretch to say Iglesias is a better bat than Simmons. Until 2020, Iglesias was a glove only guy, whereas Simmons was at least league average at the plate. Now, maybe Iglesias put something together at age 30 and the change is at least semi legit. I'm pretty confident saying he won't bat .373 with a 162 wRC+, but that doesn't mean he couldn't be a solid bit better than he has been, which is well below league average at the plate.

Without looking into more heavy data, I see his babip jumped big time in 2020, which suggests regression to his norms, but there may be something else I'm missing and he's about to go Tommy La Stella.

 

 

[totdprods]

Really feels no different than Eppler so far. Every move made has felt pretty similar to what Billy would have done, tbh.

[Mergz]

The ultimate failure of all of Minassian's predecessors has been the failure to produce a solid pitching staff.  While he certainly gets an incomplete at this point as the offseason is not over, I must say that so far I have been disappointed at Minassian's failure to acquire an ace to lead the staff.  If the reports are correct that the Angels have had no intention of acquiring Bauer, then it is very hard to understand how the Angels has failed to acquire a top line starter by trade.  Look at the Padres.  They acquited Darvish in a salary dump by the Cubs.  They acquired Snell and Musgrave for prospects (but not top prospects).  I am all for building a team through the draft, but I think we may be overvaluing the Angels farm system.  Keith Law's list of Top 100 prospects had only 2 Angels with none higher than #36.  We need pitching and we need it now.

[AngelsFaninGA]

His moves are Eppler-esque but the actual quality of players seems higher. Quintana > Teheran, Claudio/Iglesias > whatever bottom-of-the-barrel reliever Eppler would sign, Suzuki > Stassi, etc. 

[Second Base]

If we had a different GM for off-season 2020/2021....

Stoneman - Zero moves made. Adell, Marsh, Detmers and Rodriguez are all promoted to MLB. Which is really cool and somehow works, amazingly.

Reagins - After missing out on every free agent, he trades Jared Walsh and David Fletcher for Jose Abreu, believing he's just entering his prime. Fires Matt Swanson for drafting Jo Adell. Fires the analytics department. Doesn't show up for winter meetings. 

Dipoto - Signs Bauer for 7/220 and Springer for for 10/250. Trades Jack Kochanowicz for Noe Ramirez. Trades Adell and Marsh for Zack Greinke. Trades away all international bonus money for nothing. Every player he acquires underperforms. The Angels win in 2024, but suck every other year. Destroys organization. 

Eppler - Re-ups Simmons because defense. Signs Sugano and signs Kluber for 1/14, Kluber is gone by July. Also signs Nick Markakis for one year, ends up dumping him in June after he goes .160. Claims every single waiver claim. 

Minasian - Replaces Simmons with Iglesias for less money. Trades nothing for Raisel Iglesias. Gets Claudio and Suzuki for pennies on the dollar. Quintana 1/8. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Second Base

[totdprods]

The only real big deviation from a typical Eppler offseason is the Raisel Iglesias deal...and I'm still not exactly sure why Cincy was so eager to part with him for just Noe and Rivas. Obviously, they were saving money...but that deal feels tremendously lopsided. Either we beat everyone to the punch before folks caught wind on Cincy being desperate to shed money ASAP or Cincy knows something we don't about Iglesias. 

Otherwise, every other move is really no different from Eppler. Iglesias replacing Simmons makes sense, I don't see huge difference between Quintana and Harvey or Teheran or Cahill (obviously looks a little better on paper than those moves, but functionally, they're about even), and Suzuki is right in line with an acquisition like Soto, Lucroy, Smith, Rivera, Maldonado...

And I think that's okay. I think that's a testament to what Billy built here with the farm. It will be how Minasian uses this farm and how Minasian creates/keeps a development pipeline that will need to be watched.

[Second Base]

43 minutes ago, totdprods said:

The only real big deviation from a typical Eppler offseason is the Raisel Iglesias deal...and I'm still not exactly sure why Cincy was so eager to part with him for just Noe and Rivas. Obviously, they were saving money...but that deal feels tremendously lopsided. Either we beat everyone to the punch before folks caught wind on Cincy being desperate to shed money ASAP or Cincy knows something we don't about Iglesias. 

Otherwise, every other move is really no different from Eppler. Iglesias replacing Simmons makes sense, I don't see huge difference between Quintana and Harvey or Teheran or Cahill (obviously looks a little better on paper than those moves, but functionally, they're about even), and Suzuki is right in line with an acquisition like Soto, Lucroy, Smith, Rivera, Maldonado...

And I think that's okay. I think that's a testament to what Billy built here with the farm. It will be how Minasian uses this farm and how Minasian creates/keeps a development pipeline that will need to be watched.

I'm glad you were willing to step out and say it. Quintana is basically the same thing as Harvey, Cahill and Teheran. Maybe he'll be better, but it's the same price range and years for the same pitcher in the same part of his career. 

People will fight you tooth and nail for a retraction on that statement but it's the truth. 

 

[Angels 1961]

23 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I'm glad you were willing to step out and say it. Quintana is basically the same thing as Harvey, Cahill and Teheran. Maybe he'll be better, but it's the same price range and years for the same pitcher in the same part of his career. 

People will fight you tooth and nail for a retraction on that statement but it's the truth. 

 

Only time will tell

[totdprods]

24 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I'm glad you were willing to step out and say it. Quintana is basically the same thing as Harvey, Cahill and Teheran. Maybe he'll be better, but it's the same price range and years for the same pitcher in the same part of his career. 

People will fight you tooth and nail for a retraction on that statement but it's the truth. 

 

Yup...I imagine Quintana very likely will outperform those names, but that’s a very low bar to cross. And it likely won’t be because Quintana was a much better signing, but rather more that he’ll wind up performing to the standards that were expected and projected of Cahill, Teheran, Harvey. 

[Second Base]

6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Yup...I imagine Quintana very likely will outperform those names, but that’s a very low bar to cross. And it likely won’t be because Quintana was a much better signing, but rather more that he’ll wind up performing to the standards that were expected and projected of Cahill, Teheran, Harvey. 

Exactly. I'd be happy with 170 innings and a 4.25 ERA from him. Does it make him a good pitcher? No, or at least not as much as it makes him a viable 4th or 5th starter and makes him worth the money. 

That entire class of pitcher is freaking mine field though. Quintana, Richards, Kluber, Walker, Paxton, Smyly, Ray, Tanaka, Sugano....

Every single one of those guys could implode and it wouldn't surprise anyone. Conversely, every single one of them could be a solid investment and in no individual case would you necessarily be surprised. But the chances of one over the other aren't any greater. They're all a coin flip. Or a mine field. One wrong step and kaboom, blows up in your face. 

[failos]

I’m really not impressed. I was hoping the team would be in a “win now” mode.

[Taylor]

Waaaay too early.

 

We need to wait until the Angels go on a 3-game losing streak in the second week of April before we judge Minasian.

[Docwaukee]

I might be seeing what I want to see but so far I feel like Minasian is doing something that Eppler didn't and that was mitigate downside risk.  

He could have gone with Fletch at SS and Rengifo/Barreto at 2b in lieu of Iglesias and the 3m plus prospect cost but he saw the potential downside of that combo at 2b and realized how ugly it could be.  

Same with Iglesias in the pen and Quintana in the rotation.  

plus he's still getting know the system.  He likely doesn't want to jump the gun too early on letting a prospect go who he might end up feeling very strongly about in a good way.  

So he's playing things fairly conservative for the most part.  At least so far.  He might take a bit more a flier on the second arm he adds to the rotation whether its a higher risk one through FAcy or via trade where he's forced to give up some prospects.  

I do think he'll add another stable ish pen arm and someone more predictable for RF.