For how much, how long, and where will Bauer sign?

[Angelsjunky]

Because, why not? Explain your prediction in the thread comments.

Edited January 26, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Angelsjunky]

I voted 7-8 years, $34-36M, Other/I'm a wuss. I'd like to predict the Angels, but really have no clue.

While I think that sort of contract is most likely (think, Rendon/Strasburg money), I also wouldn't be surprised to see something in the 5-6 year range, or even Bauer saying "to hell with this" and taking a one-year, $40M contract with the Yankees.

[angelsnationtalk]

I'm guessing 5yr/$160M ($32M AAV)

I put Angels but I think it's a three team race between Mets, Angels, Blue Jays. 

[Junkballer]

5/6 years, 31-33 AAV, Mets

I think it will be the high end of the prediction, 6/200.  Mets will be motivated to pay his price because they need to compete with the Braves and Bauer may get them the wild card if they cant overtake them.  Bauer will be on a big stage ,with the press playing up the Cole/Bauer rivalry, and in social media heaven.  Being that the Mets were near the bottom with analytics, but with a new GM that apparently will give it a lot more emphasis, they can promise a stake in shaping their move towards analytic-driven processes and infrastructure.  Lastly, their owner seems like he would be okay with spending over the CBT threshold.

 

[Erstad Grit]

26 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I'm guessing 5yr/$160M ($32M AAV)

I put Angels but I think it's a three team race between Mets, Angels, Blue Jays. 

I'm almost dead on with you. 5/150

[Dtwncbad]

3 years/$112m

Angels.  Announced Friday this week.

[Taylor]

1 year, $35-37M, TBA team.

[BTH]

I voted 3-4 years, $37-$39 million, and the Dodgers.

I think he ultimately takes a shorter term deal (anywhere from 1-3 years) with a record setting AAV and opt out(s).

[Angels 1961]

5 years 160 to Angels

[m0nkey]

If it's 3+ years for the money we're ballparking, whatever team signs him will regret it.

[Pancake Bear]

I voted for 6 years, 31-33 aav, although I suspect I may be light. It's possible he takes fewer years at a higher aav, but I can't see him settling for anything under 30 aav.

I've consistently said I don't expect him to sign here. I could be wrong, but Arte's just never spent that much, no matter how much it made sense for him to do so. He doesn't push his budget and I don't really think that'll change, even though I'm still holding out hope he sees how open the West is and goes for it. 

I guessed the Mets since there was a story out on them today making a big offer, but it could be someone else. Good news is that that probably signals this stupid process is nearly done. Probably by week's end, we'll have a resolution on it. 

[bloodbrother]

6yr/$192M with a player opt-out after the 4th year. Hopefully its the Mets or Blue Jays who sign him

[Redondo]

I have no idea, but it will be for too much and too long.

[wopphil]

Angels. 6/160 guaranteed, with the ability to earn up to another $24 total in incentives for starts or innings pitched. 

[eligrba4ever]

I guessed 3 years $78m and the Mets.

But I was leaning toward someplace else that wasn't listed or the Reds. And I think the 20-24 for 1 or 2 may be more realistic in this market.

TB is thinking Angels like Gerrit Cole did.

[Inside Pitch]

I went 3-4 years at 36 mil per bc ego, and Dodgers because they seem willing to do that.  He's not worth that AAV imo....

I also have no clue WTF he will do but I wanted to participate. Seriously, zero clue.

[rafibomb]

I feel like we should add to the poll and ask whether he will be the one to break the news himself or it will be reported elsewhere.

[Tank]

this is where i miss @mrwicked with his spectacular predictions of $1 a year for 250 million years.

[Taylor]

40 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Angels. 6/160 guaranteed, with the ability to earn up to another $24 total in incentives for starts or innings pitched. 

24 dollars in incentives? Might as well lock it up now.

[Taylor]

23 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I also have no clue WTF he will do but I wanted to participate. Seriously, zero clue.

[rafibomb]

I feel like the longer we wait the more likely he will just sign with the Dodgers for like a 2 year 75 million dollar deal

[Docwaukee]

no clue but I don't think it will be the Halos.  Giants, CWS or Seattle maybe.  Favor the CWS.  

[Inside Pitch]

19 minutes ago, Taylor said:

24 dollars in incentives? Might as well lock it up now.

 

[Pancake Bear]

I'm genuinely puzzled why people are undervaluing Bauer.

Is it the injuries in 2019? The lack of a track record pre-2018? The relatively short track record due to injuries in 2019 and short 2020? Are there durability worries?

Is it concern over his personality issues? 

To me, I see a top ten pitcher who people seem to think will be overpaid if he gets any thing more than #2 level money. I don't see the off the field stuff as significant enough to matter, and 2018-2020 represents in my mind a clear progression that makes pre-2018 irrelevant and 2019's injury-saddled year not meaningful for determining his value.

I'll allow it's tough to gauge a guy over a relatively short peak (so far), but the fact that he put up ace numbers in 2018, was starting to do so in 2019 before the ankle and then back issues (due to pitching through the ankle injury) derailed him, and then bounced back with even better numbers in 2020 to follow up from 2018 - all of that convinces me he's a legit TOR pitcher and should reasonably remain so for at least the next few years. 

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

I'm genuinely puzzled why people are undervaluing Bauer.

Is it the injuries in 2019? The lack of a track record pre-2018? The relatively short track record due to injuries in 2019 and short 2020? Are there durability worries?

Is it concern over his personality issues? 

To me, I see a top ten pitcher who people seem to think will be overpaid if he gets any thing more than #2 level money. I don't see the off the field stuff as significant enough to matter, and 2018-2020 represents in my mind a clear progression that makes pre-2018 irrelevant and 2019's injury-saddled year not meaningful for determining his value.

I'll allow it's tough to gauge a guy over a relatively short peak (so far), but the fact that he put up ace numbers in 2018, was starting to do so in 2019 before the ankle and then back issues (due to pitching through the ankle injury) derailed him, and then bounced back with even better numbers in 2020 to follow up from 2018 - all of that convinces me he's a legit TOR pitcher and should reasonably remain so for at least the next few years. 

you say you're puzzled and then you give five reasons why there is significant risk.  While you are convinced, I can see why others wouldn't be.