AngelsWin.com Today: Is Trevor Bauer the final piece?

[AngelsWin.com]

By @angelsnationtalk, AngelsWin.com Contributor

Before we get started let's look at the 5 majors additions the Angels have made so far in 2020.
Traded for RP Raisel Iglesias (+$9.125M)
Traded for SS Jose Iglesias (+3.5M)
Signed RP Alex Claudio (+$1.125M)
Signed C Kurt Suzuki (+$1.5M)
Signed SP Jose Quintana (+8M)
Total adds an additional $23.25M to the 2021 payroll.

Here's what is interesting. All of these players become free agents after the 2021 season. 

Therefore....

The cost for 2021: $23.25M
The cost for 2022: $0. 
Opening Day payroll: $173,413,096
CB Tax Payroll: $185,933,334
Tax Space: $24,066,666

Arte Moreno said to reporters while introducing Perry Minasian as the Angels' new GM that the payroll will not go down. This has been justified as the Angels will have their highest Opening Day payroll in club history at roughly $173.4M.

The most important piece of this entire story is that none of these acquisitions for the Angels impact their future 2022 payroll obligations and beyond. 

Here is where things get very interesting. This is the first year since around 2015-2016 where the division is up for grabs. The Angels have the best chances to win the AL West. Arte Moreno has also said in the past that he wouldn't be concerned about going over the luxury tax if it was for the right player.

Well, with a new CBA likely needed to begin the 2022 we could see some drastic changes to payroll that might not even bother Arte Moreno. First thing is what will the tax threshold be? It's currently set at $210M for 2021. After that it's up for a negotiation. Will it be $215M? $220M? or even $250M? No one knows. But what we can guess is that if the threshold goes up (yes, Arte has said he cares about actual payroll and not AAV/threshold numbers), then the Angels have reached their opportunity to push the budget for 2021 and let it reset for 2022. 

Arte Moreno has publicly put himself on the hot seat by firing Billy Eppler and publicly announcing they were having serious internal talks (including with Trout) about what needs to be fixed. And yes, they acknowledged they need rotation help. The Angels have spent the last couple of seasons signing 1yr deals to starting pitchers with major question marks. Take Harvey, Cahill and Teheran for example. Anyone else get that Deja Vu feeling with a 1yr deal to Quintana?

The Angels aren't done. Pujols' contract is off the books in 2022 and the Angels will reset the payroll a bit with that. Trevor Bauer is next for the Angels. The front office knows the upset that will happen if we skip out on another year for a top rotation piece. 

I'll leave it with a quote from Angels President, Jon Carpino from a story by @Jeff Fletcher back in September talking about how they feel with Mike Trout.
“We feel tremendous responsibility to Mike,” Carpino said. “We believe he’s one of the greatest players… Being able to surround Mike, to be able to perform on the game’s greatest stage… Yeah, we feel it every day.”

See you soon, Trevor Bauer.

Photo credit to https://twitter.com/escobedo49 / https://enriqueescobedo.myportfolio.com/

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[Chuck]

Great first piece, @angelsnationtalk. Welcome to the AngelsWin.com staff of writers. 

[Erstad Grit]

O man I'd get hyped. I think some smaller pieces like a Greene type pen pitcher and Goodwin type OF but yeah Bauer would cap a fantastic off-season

[Angelsjunky]

A nice summation of factors that support why Artie might open up the purse strings. It will probably require a Rendonesque contract (7/$245M), I think.

[DMVol]

5 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

A nice summation of factors that support why Artie might open up the purse strings. It will probably require a Rendonesque contract (7/$245M), I think.

I'm not sure.  We don't what the market is.  The Jays were certainly in the mix but are they after Springer? Are the Mets? Maybe.  M's? Maybe.....we just don't know.

[Angelsjunky]

Just now, DMVol said:

I'm not sure.  We don't what the market is.  The Jays were certainly in the mix but are they after Springer? Are the Mets? Maybe.  M's? Maybe.....we just don't know.

There are enough possible teams in the mix that Bauer’s agent can leverage even imagined competition into a $30 to $35M contract. He’s the premier free agent starter and those guys never come for a bargain.

[Blarg]

Swap out the name Cole for Bauer and you have last season's obsession. 

[Second Base]

I'm in favor of opening up the proverbial wallet for one year, more specifically, this year. Why? 

Because of the farm system. Plain and simple. 

Pujols comes off the books after this year, as do Heaney, Bundy and Quintana. As do both Iglesias', Suzuki and Claudio. The Angels can re-up with Heaney or Bundy, as well as the two Iglesias and payroll would not increase at all. 

From there, you simply start plugging in the prospects. If they lose Quintana, fine, promote Detmers and save money. They need up upgrade in RF later this year without increasing payroll? Promote Marsh. Once Upton comes off the books in 2022, promote Adell and use the money saved to lock up Fletcher. Need to infuse some athleticism to CF with Trout aging in 2023, no problem, move him to LF, promoted Adams for CF, put Adell in RF and moved Marsh to 1B. Does Ohtani's arm keep calling off? No problem, promote Chris Rodriguez. Canning not cutting it in 2025? Fine, promote Kochanowicz and save money. 

The farm can sustain the success of this team while allowing payroll to gradually decrease to a more manageable number over time. 

But, I don't think Arte will do it. The "right piece" has presented itself time and time again and Arte hasn't shown any interest in going beyond the threshold. 

I think they'll grab another lower cost acquisition at SP, maybe a reliever and a cheap RF, that's it. They'll play it safe.

[angelsnationtalk]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

There are enough possible teams in the mix that Bauer’s agent can leverage even imagined competition into a $30 to $35M contract. He’s the premier free agent starter and those guys never come for a bargain.

Sure, they might leverage it to $30M-$35M AAV but it doesn't mean the Angels can backload to contract and get it around $23M-$28M in year one. They'll pay the tax, but if it's true that Arte only cares about actual payroll, then backloading the actual number will be fine.

Starting in 2023 Anthony Rendon will make $38M/yr.  Clear sign that Arte could care less about backloading a contract.

[Angelsjunky]

8 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Sure, they might leverage it to $30M-$35M AAV but it doesn't mean the Angels can backload to contract and get it around $23M-$28M in year one. They'll pay the tax, but if it's true that Arte only cares about actual payroll, then backloading the actual number will be fine.

Starting in 2023 Anthony Rendon will make $38M/yr.  Clear sign that Arte could care less about backloading a contract.

Yeah, I know - a backloaded contract is quite possible, maybe something like 25/30/38/38/38/38/38, which would be 7/245. Of course that would mean the Angels are paying $110M a year for three players from 2023-26 (not to mention the $135-145M they’d be paying for 4-5 players in 2021-22). Such a top-heavy payroll is hard to work with, unless Artie significantly ups the cap.

[CanadianHalo]

Bauer is 50% of the “final piece”

[Stradling]

Just now, CanadianHalo said:

Bauer is 50% of the “final piece”

If we sign Bauer we can basically be done except for small adds going into the season.  If we need more we can get it at the trade deadline.  Unless something falls in our laps. 

[Angelsjunky]

37 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I'm in favor of opening up the proverbial wallet for one year, more specifically, this year. Why? 

Because of the farm system. Plain and simple. 

Pujols comes off the books after this year, as do Heaney, Bundy and Quintana. As do both Iglesias', Suzuki and Claudio. The Angels can re-up with Heaney or Bundy, as well as the two Iglesias and payroll would not increase at all. 

From there, you simply start plugging in the prospects. If they lose Quintana, fine, promote Detmers and save money. They need up upgrade in RF later this year without increasing payroll? Promote Marsh. Once Upton comes off the books in 2022, promote Adell and use the money saved to lock up Fletcher. Need to infuse some athleticism to CF with Trout aging in 2023, no problem, move him to LF, promoted Adams for CF, put Adell in RF and moved Marsh to 1B. Does Ohtani's arm keep calling off? No problem, promote Chris Rodriguez. Canning not cutting it in 2025? Fine, promote Kochanowicz and save money. 

The farm can sustain the success of this team while allowing payroll to gradually decrease to a more manageable number over time. 

But, I don't think Arte will do it. The "right piece" has presented itself time and time again and Arte hasn't shown any interest in going beyond the threshold. 

I think they'll grab another lower cost acquisition at SP, maybe a reliever and a cheap RF, that's it. They'll play it safe.

Yes, although the the problem of lacking a legit ace will remain next year, and not be solvable through free agency. That free agent class has a ton of older and/or former aces in Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, Greinke and Lynn, but they’ll all be at least 34. Syndergaard will only be 29, but who knows if he’ll ever recapture his form.

Even if the Angels are blessed with tremendous fortune and all three of Rodriguez, Detmers, and Kochanowicz fulfill their potential, it will likely be 2-3 years for the first two and 4-5 for the third to reach that potential. 
 

So as much as I’ve advised caution on the Bauer or Bust crowd, there is a valid argument to pay now. 

[floplag]

41 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I'm in favor of opening up the proverbial wallet for one year, more specifically, this year. Why? 

Because of the farm system. Plain and simple. 

Pujols comes off the books after this year, as do Heaney, Bundy and Quintana. As do both Iglesias', Suzuki and Claudio. The Angels can re-up with Heaney or Bundy, as well as the two Iglesias and payroll would not increase at all. 

From there, you simply start plugging in the prospects. If they lose Quintana, fine, promote Detmers and save money. They need up upgrade in RF later this year without increasing payroll? Promote Marsh. Once Upton comes off the books in 2022, promote Adell and use the money saved to lock up Fletcher. Need to infuse some athleticism to CF with Trout aging in 2023, no problem, move him to LF, promoted Adams for CF, put Adell in RF and moved Marsh to 1B. Does Ohtani's arm keep calling off? No problem, promote Chris Rodriguez. Canning not cutting it in 2025? Fine, promote Kochanowicz and save money. 

The farm can sustain the success of this team while allowing payroll to gradually decrease to a more manageable number over time. 

But, I don't think Arte will do it. The "right piece" has presented itself time and time again and Arte hasn't shown any interest in going beyond the threshold. 

I think they'll grab another lower cost acquisition at SP, maybe a reliever and a cheap RF, that's it. They'll play it safe.

This.
All this off seasons signings are off along with Pujols next year.  Thats a monster chuck of payroll.  Of course followed by Upton the following year.
Now is not the time to trade away the future, its the time to bite the bullet and spend.
Youre talking literally something like 80-90M coming off over the next 2.  Why trade kids we need to fill those spots?  
The only answer is that we really cant afford it, which i personally do not buy. 

[Chuck]

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If we sign Bauer we can basically be done except for small adds going into the season.  If we need more we can get it at the trade deadline.  Unless something falls in our laps. 

Yeah I would call it good at that point. We could let Scott Schebler & Taylor Ward platoon in RF and hit toward the bottom of the lineup and be fine. 

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, although the the problem of lacking a legit ace will remain next year, and not be solvable through free agency. That free agent class has a ton of older and/or former aces in Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, Greinke and Lynn, but they’ll all be at least 34. Syndergaard will only be 29, but who knows if he’ll ever recapture his form.

Even if the Angels are blessed with tremendous fortune and all three of Rodriguez, Detmers, and Kochanowicz fulfill their potential, it will likely be 2-3 years for the first two and 4-5 for the third to reach that potential. 
 

So as much as I’ve advised caution on the Bauer or Bust crowd, there is a valid argument to pay now. 

Honestly if we are going all in and signing Bauer, we might as well keep going and sign the bullpen we need and someone like Jackie Bradley Jr to play RF and back up in the other outfield spots.

[CanadianHalo]

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If we sign Bauer we can basically be done except for small adds going into the season.  If we need more we can get it at the trade deadline.  Unless something falls in our laps. 

We do this every offseason. 

Pretty sure most agreed going into this offseason we needed 2 legit starters. 

We are still at 0. 
 

We’re starting to get to the point in the offseason where people start convincing themselves the guys we have aren’t so bad.

[floplag]

Bauer for me is not the final piece, just the largest.
We still need some bullpen help, and potentially a RF.   But thats small fries in comparison.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, CanadianHalo said:

We do this every offseason. 

Pretty sure most agreed going into this offseason we needed 2 legit starters. 

We are still at 0. 
 

We’re starting to get to the point in the offseason where people start convincing themselves the guys we have aren’t so bad.

except you quoted my post saying if we sign Bauer.  So if we sign Bauer we will have added Bauer and quite frankly there is nothing wrong with Quintana being the 2nd piece to the rotation.  I am not convincing myself of anything.  But we are at the part of the off season where people convince themselves that the off season is over and we didn't do enough, despite the fact that most of the top 25 free agents are still out there.

[Angelsjunky]

3 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

We do this every offseason. 

Pretty sure most agreed going into this offseason we needed 2 legit starters. 

We are still at 0. 
 

We’re starting to get to the point in the offseason where people start convincing themselves the guys we have aren’t so bad.

How is Quintana not a “legit starter?” 

[CanadianHalo]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

except you quoted my post saying if we sign Bauer.  So if we sign Bauer we will have added Bauer and quite frankly there is nothing wrong with Quintana being the 2nd piece to the rotation.  I am not convincing myself of anything.  But we are at the part of the off season where people convince themselves that the off season is over and we didn't do enough, despite the fact that most of the top 25 free agents are still out there.

Totally, there’s still time. I think Quintana is a great add if he’s part of the back end of the rotation. He’s capable of giving you quality starts and eats inning, we need that. 

If we sign Bauer and traded for Gray, this is a really good team IMO 

[CanadianHalo]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

How is Quintana not a “legit starter?” 

Top of the rotation pitcher/legit starter

[Angelsjunky]

If the Angels sign Bauer—or, frankly, any other starter—they can use Barria or Sandoval in a trade for a reliever.

[Angelsjunky]

Just now, CanadianHalo said:

Top of the rotation pitcher/legit starter

That’s a pretty stiff definition of “ legit.” And the Angels don’t need two top pitchers to be contenders. 

[Stradling]

Just now, CanadianHalo said:

Totally, there’s still time. I think Quintana is a great add if he’s part of the back end of the rotation. He’s capable of giving you quality starts and eats inning, we need that. 

If we sign Bauer and traded for Gray, this is a really good team IMO 

this is why some people will never be happy.  Your expectation is that the Angels will spend the most money and give up the assets to get one of the best pitchers to change teams in the same off season.  If they don't do that then it was a bad off season and they are only giving 80%.  It is just setting yourself up to be disappointed.  Also what does the rotation look like with your dream scenario?

Bauer, Gray, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Quintana, Barria and Ohtani.  So obviously that is too many, so now not only do you want them to go get Gray you are basically telling the team in order to get Gray you have to include Barria or Canning.  Good luck.