More pitchers coming off the board, are you worried yet?

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

Yeah, I think this is the biggest thing.

The availability of guys like Darvish, Musgrove, and Snell and the rumored availability of Castillo and Gray made fans, myself included, become enamored with one of those guys. In all likelihood, it was likely never a real focus for the Angels. I'm sure they checked in, but they just don't have the farm system other teams do.

False narrative. Angels really do have a strong farm right now. The difference is, the Angels, or more accurately, Minasian, weren't comfortable using it as capital. Every deal the Padres made, the Angels could've matched or exceeded it. 

The difference is, Prellar was comfortable using it as capital.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

False narrative. Angels really do have a strong farm right now. The difference is, the Angels, or more accurately, Minasian, weren't comfortable using it as capital. Every deal the Padres made, the Angels could've matched or exceeded it. 

The difference is, Prellar was comfortable using it as capital.

because they had one of the deepest farm systems in mlb.  Outside of the the Rays, who might have the best farm system that we've seen in 40 years or as far back as I can remember, the Pads actually had similar.  

We've certainly got enough to get Taillon.  Castillo, Marquez?  We've got it, but that would decimate us.  Anyone really.  That's why we just haven't seen them move.  

[Angel Oracle]

Rays are proof that you can have several solid seasons in a row (no tanking), and yet build a solid farm.

Scouting

Development 

[Warfarin]

8 hours ago, Trendon said:

Yeah, I think this is the biggest thing.

The availability of guys like Darvish, Musgrove, and Snell and the rumored availability of Castillo and Gray made fans, myself included, become enamored with one of those guys. In all likelihood, it was likely never a real focus for the Angels. I'm sure they checked in, but they just don't have the farm system other teams do.

Yeah.  Minasian comes from the TOR/ATL systems, and their systems are built off of conserving their prospect pipeline, developing those players, and making small, calculated free agent gambles for the most part, with an occasional bigger move once they feel their team is 100% ready to go all-in (a la the Springer move with the Blue Jays).

Our farm system is okay, but it is not a top tier one.  Minasian likely recognizes that and doesn't want to trade from it at this point, because he likely feels we aren't just one piece away.  I'm sure if he felt this team was just a Trevor Bauer away from being a true WS team, then he'd go for it and Arte would likely support it.  

What I expect to see from Minasian is for him to acquire another SP of the caliber of Quintana - a ~2-3 WAR SP who can give quality innings, but not an ace.  I expect him to find another BP arm, probably not Hand, and perhaps find a LHH OF option, although maybe that's Schebler, who knows.

It is not exciting, but again, this should be a very strong offense, a fairly good defense (great IF defense, questionable OF defense), and hopefully a re-constructed, solid bullpen.  If we have a middling rotation, that should be good enough for us to be in the thick of things.  Our problem in recent years is we have trotted out some spectacularly awful SP that doesn't give our offense a chance to even keep the game close.

[Warfarin]

6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

because they had one of the deepest farm systems in mlb.  Outside of the the Rays, who might have the best farm system that we've seen in 40 years or as far back as I can remember, the Pads actually had similar.  

We've certainly got enough to get Taillon.  Castillo, Marquez?  We've got it, but that would decimate us.  Anyone really.  That's why we just haven't seen them move.  

Yeah, that's the key point.  We probably have enough to acquire Gray as well, and while that shouldn't cost Adell, it likely costs Marsh.  If somehow it doesn't cost Marsh, it likely costs Adams plus a lot of others, which isn't optimal either.

So likely, Minasian is trying to find some bounce-back candidates, buy another year of development for our prospect pipeline which is improving, draft his first group of players, and then go from there.

[Angels 1961]

Richards gone field is getting small. What will remaining free agent starters cost? Walker, Tanaka, Paxton, Archer, Odorizzi?

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Rays are proof that you can have several solid seasons in a row (no tanking), and yet build a solid farm.

Scouting

Development 

and trading away anyone of value before they get expensive in arb or before they are past their prime.  

they have three guys on their 26 man roster than they drafted.  14 via trade.  

[AngelsLakersFan]

11 hours ago, Second Base said:

I'm no longer concerned. I think our aim was off in the first place. It seems the Angels goal from the beginning was to be able to bring in two back end starters, not unlike Eppler with Bundy-Teheran or Harvey-Cahill. 

Minasian has brought in Quintana and I trust he'll bring in another, likely Odorizzi or Tanaka. 

If his goal was to be able to bring in a pitcher to pitch at the front of the rotation and be a game changer, then my concern would be through the roof. The Angels failed to do that, if they tried. If they didn't try then they didn't fail, they were just wrong in their assessment of team needs. 

Where you went wrong was in your expectations. Minasian is no fool, he knows the team could seriously use a Trevor Bauer, but he, like Eppler before him, has to work within the budget that Moreno gives him. Bauer was never realistic given the amount of money he'll command.

[Second Base]

9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

because they had one of the deepest farm systems in mlb.  Outside of the the Rays, who might have the best farm system that we've seen in 40 years or as far back as I can remember, the Pads actually had similar.  

We've certainly got enough to get Taillon.  Castillo, Marquez?  We've got it, but that would decimate us.  Anyone really.  That's why we just haven't seen them move.  

Which is exactly why I said Minasian wasn't comfortable using the prospects as capital. I'm not saying he was wrong. The only deal I see that he should've definitely topped was Darvish. Other than that, he's been smart in holding on to them. 

[Docwaukee]

20 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Where you went wrong was in your expectations. Minasian is no fool, he knows the team could seriously use a Trevor Bauer, but he, like Eppler before him, has to work within the budget that Moreno gives him. Bauer was never realistic given the amount of money he'll command.

Minasian is probably going to have an opportunity to sign one, maybe two, high priced free agents on multi year deals over the next five years.  He would have to be extremely confident that Bauer is the guy as it likely restricts him from committing that much money to one player for awhile.  

My guess is that the allure of Minasian isn't his ability to go out and sign a big money guy but to work effectively in the middle and lower end of the free agent market.  You absolutely have to get value in that range and perhaps that was part of the promise.  

[Angel Oracle]

3 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Yeah, that's the key point.  We probably have enough to acquire Gray as well, and while that shouldn't cost Adell, it likely costs Marsh.  If somehow it doesn't cost Marsh, it likely costs Adams plus a lot of others, which isn't optimal either.

So likely, Minasian is trying to find some bounce-back candidates, buy another year of development for our prospect pipeline which is improving, draft his first group of players, and then go from there.

This

Especially with a lack of MiLB in 2020, and thus not knowing the true development that year

Yet another reason 2020 sucked

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

Which is exactly why I said Minasian wasn't comfortable using the prospects as capital. I'm not saying he was wrong. The only deal I see that he should've definitely topped was Darvish. Other than that, he's been smart in holding on to them. 

and personally, I can see why he didn't.  Committing almost 60m for a guys 34-36yo seasons who's recent performance in a short season at age 33 is more of an outlier to the rest of his career than a trend.  As I mentioned in my other post, Minasian is going to have 1 or maybe 2 opportunities to commit that kind of money to a player over multiple seasons in the next five years.  You can't take a flier.  At all.  

There are a couple of players he just can't be wrong on.  A guy he commits big money to over 3 or more years or the guy he trades for giving up significant prospect capital.  

He's got to have the stones to do both of those at some point but I can definitely see why he wouldn't hitch his trailer to Darvish, Bauer or even Snell.  The real puzzler to me is Musgrove.  My guess is that he'd have had to give up someone who values very highly and just didn't want to.  Or the pirates just don't like anyone in our system outside of our top 5 and therefore, one of those guys was the ask.  

We joke about the trade estimator and how it might be BS but the concept of it is actually quite cool and I would imagine that each team has their own proprietary version of it which numbers that are very different for certain players so they can plug and play appropriately.  

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Yeah, that's the key point.  We probably have enough to acquire Gray as well, and while that shouldn't cost Adell, it likely costs Marsh.  If somehow it doesn't cost Marsh, it likely costs Adams plus a lot of others, which isn't optimal either.

So likely, Minasian is trying to find some bounce-back candidates, buy another year of development for our prospect pipeline which is improving, draft his first group of players, and then go from there.

like I mentioned above, my guess is that every team has their own proprietary version of a 'trade estimator' of sorts.  The lost 2020 minor league season likely kept most of our young and potentially talented system with upside pretty static in the eyes of other teams which means they are all still focused on just our top guys.  And I think it's pretty unlikely that Minasian moves anyone from our top 5.  

Every big trade has that one and maybe two featured player.  Maybe in a year or half a year, a guy like Jackson becomes that guy but I doubt that's true right now.  

[Taylor]

On 1/15/2021 at 7:24 PM, tdawg87 said:

Please. Stop. Responding. 

Strad is a chronic master responder.

[Second Base]

10 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

and personally, I can see why he didn't.  Committing almost 60m for a guys 34-36yo seasons who's recent performance in a short season at age 33 is more of an outlier to the rest of his career than a trend.  As I mentioned in my other post, Minasian is going to have 1 or maybe 2 opportunities to commit that kind of money to a player over multiple seasons in the next five years.  You can't take a flier.  At all.  

There are a couple of players he just can't be wrong on.  A guy he commits big money to over 3 or more years or the guy he trades for giving up significant prospect capital.  

He's got to have the stones to do both of those at some point but I can definitely see why he wouldn't hitch his trailer to Darvish, Bauer or even Snell.  The real puzzler to me is Musgrove.  My guess is that he'd have had to give up someone who values very highly and just didn't want to.  Or the pirates just don't like anyone in our system outside of our top 5 and therefore, one of those guys was the ask.  

We joke about the trade estimator and how it might be BS but the concept of it is actually quite cool and I would imagine that each team has their own proprietary version of it which numbers that are very different for certain players so they can plug and play appropriately.  

I think you missed on Darvish's ability. The second half of 2019, he was the best pitchers in baseball. That continued in 2020. Right now, Yu Darvish is probably one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball.

60 million across three years is a steal for his services. And the cost was minimal, especially when you consider they got Caratini too. 

That was a missed opportunity.

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I think you missed on Darvish's ability. The second half of 2019, he was the best pitchers in baseball. That continued in 2020. Right now, Yu Darvish is probably one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball.

60 million across three years is a steal for his services. And the cost was minimal, especially when you consider they got Caratini too. 

That was a missed opportunity.

maybe.  if Darvish continues to buck the trend of the normal aging curve.  If he doesn't, this team is screwed.  

And I haven't missed anything.  I think you've missed on how the last 25 starts he's made isn't consistent with the rest of his career.  Maybe he's figured something out.  But he's 34.  

But because of the money he's owed and how that would impact the Angels, you just can't be wrong if that's what you think, and I see a ton of risk there.  Money is an issue.  

And again, we have no idea who they asked for from us.  The SD farm system was likely well scouted and well know so some of those players in the lower minors were more known quantities than the guys in ours.  You know that's how it works.  Teams likely don't scout every other teams systems equally.  They most likely do it based on the probability they'll be a trade partner.  I would imagine that Eppler made it clear we weren't trading our top guys and by the time that became a consideration, there was nothing to scout last year.  

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

Minasian is probably going to have an opportunity to sign one, maybe two, high priced free agents on multi year deals over the next five years.  He would have to be extremely confident that Bauer is the guy as it likely restricts him from committing that much money to one player for awhile.  

My guess is that the allure of Minasian isn't his ability to go out and sign a big money guy but to work effectively in the middle and lower end of the free agent market.  You absolutely have to get value in that range and perhaps that was part of the promise.  

That opportunity is very much tied to the contracts of Pujols and Upton... I don't see Minasian having a serious opportunity to sign a big deal until both of those guys are gone. Until then he's going to have to continue filling out a roster each year for around ~$30 mil. Maybe he could've squeezed Bauer in with that, but then you are locked out of making any other upgrades at all for a couple of years. 

[Inside Pitch]

57 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

This

Especially with a lack of MiLB in 2020, and thus not knowing the true development that year

Yet another reason 2020 sucked

This was the biggest loss last year. 

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

That opportunity is very much tied to the contracts of Pujols and Upton... I don't see Minasian having a serious opportunity to sign a big deal until both of those guys are gone. Until then he's going to have to continue filling out a roster each year for around ~$30 mil. Maybe he could've squeezed Bauer in with that, but then you are locked out of making any other upgrades at all for a couple of years. 

exactly.  Which is why adding a guy like Rendon makes sense.  Pretty low risk for the first four years.  I think we'll see Minasian go after a legit SS next year.  Just a hunch.  

[Inside Pitch]

40 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Strad is a chronic master responder.

[Second Base]

9 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

maybe.  if Darvish continues to buck the trend of the normal aging curve.  If he doesn't, this team is screwed.  

And I haven't missed anything.  I think you've missed on how the last 25 starts he's made isn't consistent with the rest of his career.  Maybe he's figured something out.  But he's 34.  

But because of the money he's owed and how that would impact the Angels, you just can't be wrong if that's what you think, and I see a ton of risk there.  Money is an issue.  

And again, we have no idea who they asked for from us.  The SD farm system was likely well scouted and well know so some of those players in the lower minors were more known quantities than the guys in ours.  You know that's how it works.  Teams likely don't scout every other teams systems equally.  They most likely do it based on the probability they'll be a trade partner.  I would imagine that Eppler made it clear we weren't trading our top guys and by the time that became a consideration, there was nothing to scout last year.  

Those numbers match up pretty well to his performances when he was healthy. How velocity is still there same, he's still generating spin on his slider and most importantly, he's healthy. You're dismissing recency and starfall in favor of painting a picture from when Darvish wasn't healthy and his age. I think you need to look at the whole picture, not just those two factors.

If you're willing to spend 9 million in Quintana, 20 million in Darvish is no problem whatsoever. 

The prospect price, regardless of preference is still one the Angels could've paid, but you're correct in that unless we knew how they valued these guys, we couldn't make a 100% accurate judgment on price. But we'd have a pretty solid idea and the Angels could've afforded it.

[Docwaukee]

Just now, Second Base said:

Those numbers match up pretty well to his performances when he was healthy. How velocity is still there same, he's still generating spin on his slider and most importantly, he's healthy. You're dismissing recency and starfall in favor of painting a picture from when Darvish wasn't healthy and his age. I think you need to look at the whole picture, not just those two factors.

If you're willing to spend 9 million in Quintana, 20 million in Darvish is no problem whatsoever. 

The prospect price, regardless of preference is still one the Angels could've paid, but you're correct in that unless we knew how they valued these guys, we couldn't make a 100% accurate judgment on price. But we'd have a pretty solid idea and the Angels could've afforded it.

I am looking at the whole picture.  You have recency bias.  And his age matters.   He's had an FIP of 4.08 in the three years before his 2020 aberration.  And that includes the stretch at the end of 2019 where he was very good (not 2020 good).  

It's not 20mil on Darvish.  It's 60m.  Through the age of 36.  You're basically taking away a significant chunk of money to improve the team in 2022 and 2023 when he's 35 and 36 years old.  Quintana's money comes off the book after a year.  I think it's very likely that Darvish is the better pitcher in 2021.  After that?  I'll take my chances that we can find someone else who'll be better than him in the two years to follow for that kind of money.  

And even though we have no idea what it would have cost to match the offer, it's still not just prospect or money.  It's both.  We decrease the prospect capital within the system AND commit 20m per season to a guy in his mid 30's.  

I am not saying Darvish isn't a good or very good pitcher.  It's just that getting him comes with a shit ton of risk and I don't blame Minasian for taking a pass whatsoever.  

[Angel Oracle]

20 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

exactly.  Which is why adding a guy like Rendon makes sense.  Pretty low risk for the first four years.  I think we'll see Minasian go after a legit SS next year.  Just a hunch.  

For sure, the FA SS market is so much more populated than the pitching market a year from now.

Bring in one of those SSs (just not injury prone Seager or Correa), and then one of the prize SSs on the farm could be part of a deal to acquire a multiple years controlled pitcher.

Edited January 24, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[greginpsca]

Taillan is now off the board. Traded to the Skanks for 4 minor leaguers.

[34red4]

22 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

For sure, the FA SS market is so much more populated than the pitching market a year from now.

Bring in one of those SSs (just not injury prone Seager or Correa), and then one of the prize SSs on the farm could be part of a deal to acquire a multiple years controlled pitcher.

Lindor/Story/Baez