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Fangraphs, cost and benefits of 6 man rotation


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I saw this this morning and found it interesting.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-costs-and-benefits-of-six-man-rotations/

Ill leave you to read it on your own but some of the key points:

There is a small statistical beneficial result to this, emphasis on small.  Its worth about 6.5 runs a season, and about 30 innings less per starter compared to 5 man 

Cost wise it means your relying on your 6th guys or deeper more, so the value of that varies by team.  There is an interesting chart in the article that estimates the cost, in our case they the estimate an added 0.24 addition to the ERA and about 4.1 more runs allowed.  This is about third best overall.

Its theoretical of course but i thought intriguing. 

One thing it doesnt factor in of course is real world cost and roster impact. 
This really only works for those teams that have enough depth to make it work.  Plus 6 man rotation means paying 6 guys SP wages, resulting in even more investment in the rotation and perhaps less elsewhere.  Also means fewer men in the pen or on the bench.  I suspect this works best for teams with more cost controlled options that it would those with a heavy front end.

It works for us due to Ohtani being a two way player, supposedly the Mariners are following suit this year.

It also somewhat may devalue SP a little.

Just tossing it out there for discussion purposes, no real point to be made, lol 

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This is something the Angels are absolutely built for. 

It doesn't HAVE to have them all at SP wages. majority of #5 and #6 pitchers should be depth/league minimum anyways.

If what Maddon says is true that they need 2 more starters then their depth looks amazing for this scenario.
New guy, New guy, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Barrria/Ohtani/Sandoval/Suarez

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19 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

This is something the Angels are absolutely built for. 

It doesn't HAVE to have them all at SP wages. majority of #5 and #6 pitchers should be depth/league minimum anyways.

If what Maddon says is true that they need 2 more starters then their depth looks amazing for this scenario.
New guy, New guy, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Barrria/Ohtani/Sandoval/Suarez

But some of those 5 and 6s may be 3s

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Taking Ohtani out of any projected 6 man rotational depth is just nuts. 

If healthy, which he is expected to be, for all intents and purposes, he’s the best guy on the current staff. Do I think he’d make the 27 starts? No. But having a call up (likely Sandoval) from AAA for say 7 of those starts would be a good way to help for load management.

Going to a full 6 man rotation would take us out on Bauer. 

Also it should be looked at to see if they want to do a straight 6, or skip that 6 spot when they have a day off.

If they’re going 6, I say sign Realmuto, Richards/Walker, and trade for Gray. 

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So if you go with 6 man rotation, Bauer probably not signing. He wants to pitch every 4 days. I would say let's see who they sign and then figure out rotation. I grew up with teams using a 4 man rotation without a pitch count. I realize today with so much money being involved why pitchers want to protect their arms. If I signed Bauer to a 5 or 6 year deal I would not want him pitching every 4 days. 

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Having a actual six man rotation and having one specific pitcher pitch every sixth game is not the same thing.

The bottom line is you probably don’t want your 6th best starter to get the same number of starts as the guys in the top half of your rotation.

With off days and just sometimes using a sixth body in a spot start here and there, you can have one guy pitching every 6 games and the rest of the rotation basically normal.

Further, you could also have a Bauer that pitches often on three days rest in the same rotation with a guy that mostly pitches every 6th game.  If you map that out on a calendar, it’s not all that complicated.  Every once in a while they land on the same day and you just have Bauer yield to Ohtani for that start and Bauer goes on four days rest that turn instead of three days rest.

 

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