Jo Adell or Brandon Marsh?

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

What is worrying about Upton is that while he struggled with various injuries over the last two years, his stat lines were very similar:

2019: .215/.309/.416, 92 wRC+

2020: .204/.289/.422, 95 wRC+

That's -0.2 WAR in 105 games played, pretty much the definition of replacement player.

The Angels aren't in a bad position, though, with Marsh and Adell waiting in the wings. Upton's job is probably safe for 1-2 months, but depending upon how he and the two prospects perform, his clock is obviously ticking. I'd say there are tree broad possibilities:

1. Upton continues at 2019-20 level or worse, but Marsh and Adell are slow to get started. Result: Upton keeps his job until one of Marsh or Adell get hot.

2. Upton continues at 2019-20 level or worse, and Marsh and/or Adell hit the ground running. Result: Upton is phased out, starting in May or June.

3. Upton improves back to 2018 level or close to (123 wRC+, 3.1 WAR). He keeps his job, and Marsh/Adell have to win playing time via RF/DH/1B.

Of course if Ward/Schelber is a disaster, Marsh/Adell might get playing time there first.

Regardless, I think there's a good chance Upton is in a platoon/bench role by season's end. 

 

I would say the jury is out on Upton. 
 

in 2019 he had no spring training and played about two months and got hurt again. 
 

In 2020 he played two months and one was really good and one was really bad. 
 

His defense will drag down his WAR, but I would not be surprised if he puts up an 800-830 OPS.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I would say the jury is out on Upton. 
 

in 2019 he had no spring training and played about two months and got hurt again. 
 

In 2020 he played two months and one was really good and one was really bad. 
 

His defense will drag down his WAR, but I would not be surprised if he puts up an 800-830 OPS.

Yeah, that sounds about right, and obviously he deserves the benefit of the doubt, not least because of his salary. My guess would be a bit lower, maybe .750-.800. If that is the case, he'll hold his job.

[ettin]

May I simply suggest that we not compare Adell vs. Marsh and simply enjoy the embarrassment of riches in the OF and call it a day?

Both are quite athletic and can cover ground on defense and although they have different hitting profiles, both will produce in different ways, making this sort of an apples to apples comparison (oops did I compare them?).

[Hubs]

3 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I would say the jury is out on Upton. 
 

in 2019 he had no spring training and played about two months and got hurt again. 
 

In 2020 he played two months and one was really good and one was really bad. 
 

His defense will drag down his WAR, but I would not be surprised if he puts up an 800-830 OPS.

Turf Toe really hurt him, and he never looked the same in 2019. When he came back it wasn’t good. Goodwin stole some of his playing time too, and started off so well, he Still got playing time when Upton returned. 2020 2nd month he showed he is still the same guy he was in 2017 and 2018, when he was healthy and not platooning.

He’s capable of 135-140 Games each of the next two seasons with a OPS in the high 800’s. He’s untradeable though and will Not be cut. So He’s our left fielder most of the time the next two seasons. 

Getting a complementary one year bat for 30 games say, who plays like 15 In CF and 80-90 in RF with good defense is a need to this club. Ward can handle the other half of the RF AB’s. A lefty with good defense is what they need. 

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Turf Toe really hurt him, and he never looked the same in 2019. When he came back it wasn’t good. Goodwin stole some of his playing time too, and started off so well, he Still got playing time when Upton returned. 2020 2nd month he showed he is still the same guy he was in 2017 and 2018, when he was healthy and not platooning.

He’s capable of 135-140 Games each of the next two seasons with a OPS in the high 800’s. He’s untradeable though and will Not be cut. So He’s our left fielder most of the time the next two seasons. 

Getting a complementary one year bat for 30 games say, who plays like 15 In CF and 80-90 in RF with good defense is a need to this club. Ward can handle the other half of the RF AB’s. A lefty with good defense is what they need. 

Not to nitpick, but Upton has only had an OPS over .850 ("high 800s") three times in his career, in 2009, 2011, and his career best of .901 in 2017. I'm not sure why you think he'd have two of his five best hitting seasons at age 33-34.

I think a healthy Upton at age 33-34 maxes out around .800 OPS, maybe low .800s as Jeff said. That would be pretty good, and good enough to hold his job. But if he starts dipping below .750 and one or both of Adell and Marsh are raking, he'll be watched with some scrutiny. Thankfully for him, RF is ripe for the picking and clearly Adell or Marsh will get time there first (or in Adell's case, maybe move Upton to RF and put Adell in LF).

As for another OF bat, I think someone like Kevin Pillar is just what the doctor ordered. He could probably be had for 1/$5-6M, and even if Marsh or Adell mash in AAA, there will be at-bats as the 4OF and part-time DH. Eddie Rosario would be nice, but will probably cost more.

I'm also fine with the idea of sticking with Ward and Schebler until Marsh or Adell is ready by mid-season.

[Stradler]

Adell's value fell sharply last season in my view, to say he still has the same ceiling as before is ignorance.

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, PowerBall said:

Adell's value fell sharply last season in my view, to say he still has the same ceiling as before is ignorance.

You don't lose a "ceiling". He's just as likely to be a superstar as he was at this time last year.

Absurd statement to make.

[Stradler]

41 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

You don't lose a "ceiling". He's just as likely to be a superstar as he was at this time last year.

Absurd statement to make.

I disagree, he just revealed that he is a mental case and that hurts in baseball, because baseball is a more mental game than more linear sports like basketball and football.  I could also argue that basketball players don't lose their ceiling as easily (barring injury) because the game is almost purely physical.  Unless you're a PG then a slight increase in mental demand but nowhere near baseball.  Same goes for football unless you're a QB.

All sports players are susceptible to losing ceiling if they display incompetence or fragility.  Adell displayed incompetence, Brandon Wood also displayed incompetence.  

[Revad]

39 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

You don't lose a "ceiling". He's just as likely to be a superstar as he was at this time last year.

Absurd statement to make.

If Artie would step up and spend some of what he’ll probably give to taxes we would keep Adell, Marsh, Adams and some really decent other prospects.  Artie would make the money back and more.

[Angelsjunky]

12 minutes ago, PowerBall said:

I disagree, he just revealed that he is a mental case and that hurts in baseball, because baseball is a more mental game than more linear sports like basketball and football.  I could also argue that basketball players don't lose their ceiling as easily (barring injury) because the game is almost purely physical.  Unless you're a PG then a slight increase in mental demand but nowhere near baseball.  Same goes for football unless you're a QB.

All sports players are susceptible to losing ceiling if they display incompetence or fragility.  Adell displayed incompetence, Brandon Wood also displayed incompetence.  

I agree with Stradling: his ceiling remains the same. If anything, the chances that he reaches that ceiling are slightly lesser, and the floor is lowered.

I personally believe that Adell will be fine. Whether that means a .250, 30 HR hitter or a .290, 40 HR hitter, I don't know. Time will tell. But remember that we knew he wasn't ready for the major leagues, and the Angels took the gamble that he would be better served being overmatched and gradually adjusting then getting no playing time. Now he knows what he needs to work on. He's a smart kid, and being humbled isn't such a bad thing.

Sure, there's the possibility that this will damage his confidence beyond repair. But it is just a possibility. Let's give the kid a chance.

[tdawg87]

5 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I agree with Stradling

Wtf really?

[Revad]

4 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Wtf really?

I don’t always agree but he is sometimes right.  

Edited January 13, 2021 by Revad

[Junkballer]

2 hours ago, Revad said:

I don’t always agree but he is sometimes right.  

Tdawg doesnt work for INO.

[Revad]

Dude if I ever knew that I promise it slipped my mind. 

[Tank]

On 1/11/2021 at 7:14 PM, Revad said:

If Artie would step the fuck up there be a good decade ahead

[Tank]

10 hours ago, PowerBall said:

I disagree, he just revealed that he is a mental case and that hurts in baseball, because baseball is a more mental game than more linear sports like basketball and football.  I could also argue that basketball players don't lose their ceiling as easily (barring injury) because the game is almost purely physical.  Unless you're a PG then a slight increase in mental demand but nowhere near baseball.  Same goes for football unless you're a QB.

All sports players are susceptible to losing ceiling if they display incompetence or fragility.  Adell displayed incompetence, Brandon Wood also displayed incompetence.  

dear @Inside Pitch

[tdawg87]

10 minutes ago, Tank said:

dear @Inside Pitch

This makes you an accessory.

[Tank]

9 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

This makes you an accessory.

i'll hire @wopphil as my attorney. i hear he's pretty good.

[failos]

13 hours ago, PowerBall said:

I disagree, he just revealed that he is a mental case and that hurts in baseball, because baseball is a more mental game than more linear sports like basketball and football.  I could also argue that basketball players don't lose their ceiling as easily (barring injury) because the game is almost purely physical.  Unless you're a PG then a slight increase in mental demand but nowhere near baseball.  Same goes for football unless you're a QB.

All sports players are susceptible to losing ceiling if they display incompetence or fragility.  Adell displayed incompetence, Brandon Wood also displayed incompetence.  

A mental case? You’re way off

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Tank said:

i'll hire @wopphil as my attorney. i hear he's pretty good.

you spelled authorney wrong.  

[TheUPSman]

If we're keeping one and trading another, since they're both still "green", I'd prefer keeping Marsh over Adell. Simply because we lack left handed power. Do I think Marsh has the tools Adell has? No, doesn't mean he won't be a solid player. Besides if the OP is alluding to trading the other for pitching, we'd still get more for Adell them Marsh right now. 

[Stradling]

21 hours ago, PowerBall said:

Adell's value fell sharply last season in my view, to say he still has the same ceiling as before is ignorance.

No

[Stradling]

20 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Wtf really?

If it helps any, you and I agree on this 

[Inside Pitch]

 

22 hours ago, PowerBall said:

Adell's value fell sharply last season in my view, to say he still has the same ceiling as before is ignorance.

Physician heal thyself...

[Inside Pitch]

10 hours ago, Tank said:

dear @Inside Pitch

Nope...   too trivial.