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Indians trading Lindor and Carrasco to the Mets for Gimenez, Rosario, 2 prospects


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VINTAGE. BASEBALL. STORY. 
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Am I your bitch? But ok, one moment...

Trading pitching for pitching doesn't make any sense to me.

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1 hour ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

Mets are at about 164 mil in salaries. they have the room to add another big contract, but i think they'll try to fill the other holes, like a  Dh, an outfielder, and some Bp arms.  

I thought they were around 150 before the trade and now they're at 180m.  

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1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

Well Canning has 5 years of control left, and I don't know if I agree with Gray being better for the next 2-3 years. I mean he may be, but not by enough to warrant that trade. Gray is a good #3, solid #2, which is pretty much Canning's ceiling.

Health is the biggest concern with Canning.

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22 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I don't get the love for Carrasco.  He's 34 and owed 27m for his age 34 and 35 seasons.  

Since 2914, his ERA+ is 129. And that includes an abysmal 2019, which I believe was impacted by his cancer issues. He has generally been both healthy and highly effective. A legit number 2 guy. Plus, he is owed only $13 mil or so per year, and is under contract for three more years.

I don’t know what there isn’t to like about him. 

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57 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

Jordyn Adams, Patrick Sandoval and Jeremiah Jackson is pretty close to equal Gray or Musgrove.

Adams is the wild card.   He’s just starting to tap into his potential, after not focusing solely on baseball in HS.

The sky could ultimately be the limit.

Jackson may be Rendon’s replacement for when he possibly needs to move to 1B in 3-4 years.

Gray is rock solid, but no thank you to that trade.

As I mentioned, I’m coming around to waiting a year on key prospects trades, and see how Adell, Adams, Marsh, Jackson, etc. fare in a 2021 minor league season.

Unfortunately, the FA starters are down to Bauer and Odorizzi plus lesser guys like Paxton, Walker, and Kluber.

Although if taking on Gray AND Castellanos contract instead of Moose’s, what would be the prospects value going to the Reds?

Move Castellanos to 1B and Walsh to RF for 2021?

Edited by Angel Oracle
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37 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Since 2914, his ERA+ is 129. And that includes an abysmal 2019, which I believe was impacted by his cancer issues. He has generally been both healthy and highly effective. A legit number 2 guy. Plus, he is owed only $13 mil or so per year, and is under contract for three more years.

I don’t know what there isn’t to like about him. 

putting his health issues aside even though I don't think you can totally do that, he's entering his age 34 season and isn't elite.  The reason I mention the elite moniker is that only guys like Verlander and Scherzer and Greinke are likely to continue on a flat trajectory as opposed to declining normally.  Carrasco doesn't fall into that category so the chances of him sustaining his previous level are pretty low.  He's a candidate to decline rapidly.  

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1 hour ago, rafibomb said:

Didn't realize that Sonny Gray (35.9) and Musgrove (36.4) are practically equal in value according to the Trade Simulator. 

It makes sense, if you think about it.

2019-20 numbers, with (age) and contract:

Gray (31): 6.1 WAR, 3.07 ERA, 231.1 IP, 94 walks, 277 Ks; 3/$32M

Musgrove (28): 4.3 WAR, 4.33 ERA, 210 IP, 55 walks, 212 Ks; two years of arbitration

Gray is clearly the better pitcher, but we've almost certain seen his ceiling and Musgrove at least partially offsets that by being three years younger and with the general view that he's a breakout candidate to be maybe as good as Gray.

To be honest, I'd rather have Gray. 31-33 isn't old for a pitcher, and he's on a very good contract and would be the best starter they've had since that one year of Richards and Weaver's prime. Plus you get a third guaranteed year, where Musgrove is heading for free agency in 2023.

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My only fear is the Angels will lose out on some other guys and only sign Bauer this offseason and overpay for him. 

Angels need to step up and go for Bauer and more. Trade for Contreras and another arm. Yes, Castillo is a far reach, but he'd slot really well financially fo the Angels. 

Bauer backloaded at say $25M for yr 1 with Castillo ($4.4M) and Contreras ($6.3M) is roughly $35.6M in added salary and completes the main need the Angels need.

I know it's far fetched, but the Angels need to make some splashes now. 

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4 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

My only fear is the Angels will lose out on some other guys and only sign Bauer this offseason and overpay for him. 

Angels need to step up and go for Bauer and more. Trade for Contreras and another arm. Yes, Castillo is a far reach, but he'd slot really well financially fo the Angels. 

Bauer backloaded at say $25M for yr 1 with Castillo ($4.4M) and Contreras ($6.3M) is roughly $35.6M in added salary and completes the main need the Angels need.

I know it's far fetched, but the Angels need to make some splashes now. 

It isn't only far-fetched, but trading for both Castillo and Contreras would utterly gut the farm. Ain't gonna--and hopefully won't--happen.

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Steve Cohen swinging his bat around. Gotta say, that's impressive. Dude wants to win. 

Skeptical they go for Bauer at this point. Can they? Probably. But I feel like they're running out of spots in the rotation. To me, they seem like they're in a similar position to the Dodgers. They can afford it, but they're unlikely to actually go that route unless Bauer gives them a sweetheart deal. Springer and/or someone like Hand feels more likely at this point.

I'd guess Toronto and the Angels would be the two teams left who have the strongest combo of money and need for Bauer, but we'll see. 

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22 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

 He's a candidate to decline rapidly.  

How do you figure? His K/9 and hits/9 were career bests last year. He has shown virtually no decline thus far. I wouldn’t part with Adell to get him, but he would easily have been worth a package centered around Adams and Sandoval.

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11 minutes ago, wopphil said:

How do you figure? His K/9 and hits/9 were career bests last year. He has shown virtually no decline thus far. I wouldn’t part with Adell to get him, but he would easily have been worth a package centered around Adams and Sandoval.

we'll see.  he's 34 and he's actually owed a decent amount of money.  not a chance I would give up Adams or Sandoval.  The mets gave up 1 top 100 prospect for Lindor and Carrasco plus Rosario who I consider to be highly overrated.  Carrasco would be a pure salary dump in my opinion.  Assuming consistent production from a guy his age just doesn't make sense to me unless that guy is truly elite.  Otherwise, those guys tend to decline very quickly.  

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So, I'll just say this. 

 

I think we are the front-runners for Bauer. 

Mets i think are out, they still need to add a cf. 

Jays i think might have to over pay and may not do that

Giants could be in play, but is that a playoff team? 

Save the prospects and go after Bauer. 125 mil over 5 years or be creative. 

we sitting around 151 mil in payrolls.

We've gotten a closer, added a SS. all that left is a starter and another Bp arm. 

Sign Bauer 125 mil over 5 year

Year 1: 18 mil

year 2 : 22 mil

Year 3: 28 mil

Year 4: 28 mil 

Year 5: 29 mil

 

Pujols is a free agent after this season, and Upton is off the books the following year. That over 50 Mil coming off.

Now consider, you've gotten most of our young guys in Arbs, with Othani being the most expensive. One other thing, we'll have talent coming up from the system to replace certain guys. We can replace Upton with Marsh, with out adding to the payroll, we could easy replace Bundy and Heaney, with Detmers and Rodriguez. 

21 rotation: Bauer, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Barria and Othani 

22 Rotation: Bauer, Othani, Detemers, Rodriguez, Barria or you could bring one of Heaney or Bundy back or sign a free agents. 

 

all I'm trying to say is that we'll still have money left to spend once upton's contract comes off. 

Potentially after 22, including  us signing Bauer, and talents continues to grow and come up, Average payroll will be around 130-140 Mil. 

 

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So, here's the thing: If Bauer could be had for 5/125, I think a lot more teams would be in. Also, assuming you can just replace Upton, Bundy, and Heaney with a bunch of guys who've never actually played in the show, no big deal, is highly speculative. Also, incredibly unlikely to work. At least one or two of those guys will either be busts or need more development time before they're anything close to legit replacements. 

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