The Official 2021 Los Angeles Angels Minor League Stats, Reports & Scouting Thread

[Stradling]

23 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I mean I don't know as much as he does and certainly not as much as @Dochalo or @Inside Pitch but I'd say I certainly have more than a "very basic knowledge". Just a dumb potshot. Not to mention "stupid" and "utter lack of understanding". Dumb pretentious bullshit.

He’s one we lost to covid.  

[tdawg87]

I miss the old Scotty. He was nice.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

One of the things that is irking me is that fans with a only very basic knowledge of baseball are equating velocity with status as a pitcher. As if the difference between a #3 starter and a #2 starter is freaking their fastball velocity being at 93 mph instead of 94. 

Please stop doing that.

Truth is, it's not just fans.  MLB scouts and front offices started chasing FB readings and the sport has moved in that direction for a couple decades.

Guys like Kyle Hendricks are a rarity and it's not just because people are enamored with velocity, it's because K rate has always been the greatest indicator of future success and velocity has always had the biggest impact on K rates.

Going back to 2019 simply because it was the last full season but, among the top 20 pitchers (fWAR) all but 4 had average FB velocities over 93, and only ONE was below 90, Grienke.  Extend it to top 30 and it's 21 of 30 -- in the 20-21 seasons combined the numbers are 23 of 30.   If you look at the top K rates (2019), it becomes even more telling, 25 of the top 30 average 93 and above.  The 5 that missed -Corbin at 92.2, Mathew Boyd 92.0, Bumgarner 91.6, Joey Luchesi 90.6 and Jon Lester 90.7.

Just for the sake of comparison..   The first year MLB tracked averages velocities was 2007...   How different was it?  only 8 of the top 30 pitchers in the league (fWAR) had an average FB in excess of 93 MPH.  There were more guys that averaged less than 90 (10), than there were guys over 93 and only 12 at 92 or better.

The game has just changed.

 

[Inside Pitch]

On 5/23/2021 at 5:47 PM, Dochalo said:

@Inside Pitch

Are we crazy or did that just look way better in a really short period of time?  

Hi, havent been around to respond but no, he definitely looks better.  Hopefully something has clicked for him.  Adell has a history of having it all click for him and then sudden improvement happens.   I still think people need to hold off and let him do it for a month+...  Hot streaks happen and that's more true of guys with a lot of swing and miss.  But he's definitely looking better.

 

[Inside Pitch]

15 hours ago, Dochalo said:

i'm ultra curious how a guy goes from throwing 88-91 to 95 in a couple months.  We've got several guys who came out of nowhere an are missing a ton of bats right now.  I want to believe, but of course, I'm an Angel fan.  

Gas camps...  Most teams have them in AZ or wherever their extended ST stuff is, the sole reason they exist is to increase velocities.  A lot of the weighted ball stuff is designed to increase velocities.  

[Second Base]

42 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Truth is, it's not just fans.  MLB scouts and front offices started chasing FB readings and the sport has moved in that direction for a couple decades.

Guys like Kyle Hendricks are a rarity and it's not just because people are enamored with velocity, it's because K rate has always been the greatest indicator of future success and velocity has always had the biggest impact on K rates.

Going back to 2019 simply because it was the last full season but, among the top 20 pitchers (fWAR) all but 4 had average FB velocities over 93, and only ONE was below 90, Grienke.  Extend it to top 30 and it's 21 of 30 -- in the 20-21 seasons combined the numbers are 23 of 30.   If you look at the top K rates (2019), it becomes even more telling, 25 of the top 30 average 93 and above.  The 5 that missed -Corbin at 92.2, Mathew Boyd 92.0, Bumgarner 91.6, Joey Luchesi 90.6 and Jon Lester 90.7.

Just for the sake of comparison..   The first year MLB tracked averages velocities was 2007...   How different was it?  only 8 of the top 30 pitchers in the league (fWAR) had an average FB in excess of 93 MPH.  There were more guys that averaged less than 90 (10), than there were guys over 93 and only 12 at 92 or better.

The game has just changed.

 

Higher velocity is only part of the equation though. What separates a good pitcher like Sandy Alcantara from a truly great pitcher like Jacob DeGrom? It isn't velocity. 

While it rings true, a mistake pitch at 97 is better than one at 92, the predominant difference here is the quality of other pitches. Simply put, good pitchers, throw good pitches. 

A good four-seam fastball is still only 25% of the equation, if that. Pitchers succeeding at 93 isn't the exception to the rule, it's more of a common occurrence. And even then, so much of it is dependent the style of pitcher. 

Garrett Crochet and Reid Detmers were successful and stayed for entirely different reasons. Without 98+, Crochet isn't successful. Without 95, Detmers is. If you're really tracking how Detmers is doing, focus on how often he gets ahead of hitters, that'll tell a better story than his fastball velocity. 

[greginpsca]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

Truth is, it's not just fans.  MLB scouts and front offices started chasing FB readings and the sport has moved in that direction for a couple decades.

Guys like Kyle Hendricks are a rarity and it's not just because people are enamored with velocity, it's because K rate has always been the greatest indicator of future success and velocity has always had the biggest impact on K rates.

Going back to 2019 simply because it was the last full season but, among the top 20 pitchers (fWAR) all but 4 had average FB velocities over 93, and only ONE was below 90, Grienke.  Extend it to top 30 and it's 21 of 30 -- in the 20-21 seasons combined the numbers are 23 of 30.   If you look at the top K rates (2019), it becomes even more telling, 25 of the top 30 average 93 and above.  The 5 that missed -Corbin at 92.2, Mathew Boyd 92.0, Bumgarner 91.6, Joey Luchesi 90.6 and Jon Lester 90.7.

Just for the sake of comparison..   The first year MLB tracked averages velocities was 2007...   How different was it?  only 8 of the top 30 pitchers in the league (fWAR) had an average FB in excess of 93 MPH.  There were more guys that averaged less than 90 (10), than there were guys over 93 and only 12 at 92 or better.

The game has just changed.

 

I bet there is a strong correlation with the increase in MPH & TJ's. 

[Inside Pitch]

41 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Higher velocity is only part of the equation though. What separates a good pitcher like Sandy Alcantara from a truly great pitcher like Jacob DeGrom? It isn't velocity. 

While it rings true, a mistake pitch at 97 is better than one at 92, the predominant difference here is the quality of other pitches. Simply put, good pitchers, throw good pitches. 

A good four-seam fastball is still only 25% of the equation, if that. Pitchers succeeding at 93 isn't the exception to the rule, it's more of a common occurrence. And even then, so much of it is dependent the style of pitcher. 

Garrett Crochet and Reid Detmers were successful and stayed for entirely different reasons. Without 98+, Crochet isn't successful. Without 95, Detmers is. If you're really tracking how Detmers is doing, focus on how often he gets ahead of hitters, that'll tell a better story than his fastball velocity. 

Well, like I said .... It's not the ONLY part, just the part that most heavily impacts future success. 

At the end of the day isn't that what they all want?  A greater chance of success?  Thus the pursuit of velocity. 

Look at the relative success of one of your examples..  DeGrom... He's gone from averaging 94.2 MPH in 2016 when he posted a 3.04 to where he is now at 98.9 and 0.80.  

Check the correlation between his velo and K rate..

2016 - 94.2, 8.70
2017 - 95.6, 10.68
2018 - 96.3, 11.16
2019 - 97.1, 11.25
2020 - 98.7, 13.76
2021 - 98.9, 14.80

I think everyone understands you point, velocity isn't everything -- Jeff Juden is a great example of such a beast but to be honest I think it's more naive to think people don't know that. 

Again, if fans are falling victim to radar readings (they are), it's largely in because MLB is doing the same thing.  

 

[Inside Pitch]

15 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

I bet there is a strong correlation with the increase in MPH & TJ's. 

It's been a while since I've seen a study on it but the last one showed the greatest correlation with TJ's was breaking balls -- sliders in particular.

But I'd be willing to bet you're 100% correct.

[Chuck]

 

[tdawg87]

Lefties with oppo power

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, Second Base said:

Those that are talking about Detmers curve and change piece, THANK YOU. 

While you make some good points and I agree with the gist of what you're saying, it is a bit strawmanny, at least from what I've read in this thread. What you don't say is that Detmers--with his curve and change and a 95-97 mph fastball--is probably going to be a better pitcher than Detmers with his curve and change and a 92-93 mph fastball.

Meaning, if "dumb fans" were relying solely on the velocity change, you'd be right. That's over-simplistic. But the point is that some of them are saying that Detmers with +3-4 mph on his fastball, in combination with his other pitches, is likely going to be better than without that velocity jump.

[Second Base]

9 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

While you make some good points and I agree with the gist of what you're saying, it is a bit strawmanny, at least from what I've read in this thread. What you don't say is that Detmers--with his curve and change and a 95-97 mph fastball--is probably going to be a better pitcher than Detmers with his curve and change and a 92-93 mph fastball.

Meaning, if "dumb fans" were relying solely on the velocity change, you'd be right. That's over-simplistic. But the point is that some of them are saying that Detmers with +3-4 mph on his fastball, in combination with his other pitches, is likely going to be better than without that velocity jump.

That's largely dependent upon his command at 95 mph. We know he has excellent command at 92. Wouldn't you take 92 spotted correctly versus 95 and missing? 

And this very debate suggests in and if itself that the velocity isn't as important as command. 

[Second Base]

45 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

 

Rocket City fans louder than Anaheim. 

[Second Base]

59 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Well, like I said .... It's not the ONLY part, just the part that most heavily impacts future success. 

At the end of the day isn't that what they all want?  A greater chance of success?  Thus the pursuit of velocity. 

Look at the relative success of one of your examples..  DeGrom... He's gone from averaging 94.2 MPH in 2016 when he posted a 3.04 to where he is now at 98.9 and 0.80.  

Check the correlation between his velo and K rate..

2016 - 94.2, 8.70
2017 - 95.6, 10.68
2018 - 96.3, 11.16
2019 - 97.1, 11.25
2020 - 98.7, 13.76
2021 - 98.9, 14.80

I think everyone understands you point, velocity isn't everything -- Jeff Juden is a great example of such a beast but to be honest I think it's more naive to think people don't know that. 

Again, if fans are falling victim to radar readings (they are), it's largely in because MLB is doing the same thing.  

 

League wide k rates have climbed significantly since 2016, which doesn't disprove your point, but it does add important clarity. We can also ask the pitchers themselves what the difference is between success and non-success and most of them will readily admit that it's working ahead in the count and creating more movement and more deception in their pitches. 

Though admittedly, that's likely a prepared response. Most wouldn't outright say, "It's because I'm hucking the ball 3 mph faster." Even if that's true. Sort of like asking a power hitter why he's hitting more homeruns. He won't outright day he's selling out for that outcome with strikeouts, but it's still the truth. 

Edited May 27, 2021 by Second Base

[mmc]

 

[Angelsjunky]

49 minutes ago, Second Base said:

That's largely dependent upon his command at 95 mph. We know he has excellent command at 92. Wouldn't you take 92 spotted correctly versus 95 and missing? 

And this very debate suggests in and if itself that the velocity isn't as important as command. 

Yes, agreed. But again, all other things but velocity being equal, Detmers at 95 is a better pitcher than Detmers at 92. I think that's what has people excited. 

[jsnpritchett]

17 minutes ago, mmc said:

 

[rafibomb]

Apparently Kyren Paris was added to the 7-day IL today. What a bummer.

[Angelsjunky]

2 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

Apparently Kyren Paris was added to the 7-day IL today. What a bummer.

It is, but he wasn't going anywhere and the plan probably remains to keep him in A ball the first half, then promote him to A+ in the second half.

[rafibomb]

Just now, Angelsjunky said:

It is, but he wasn't going anywhere and the plan probably remains to keep him in A ball the first half, then promote him to A+ in the second half.

Gives Jackson time to pick it at shortstop full-time, but I honestly don't think he stays there long-term.

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, rafibomb said:

Gives Jackson time to pick it at shortstop full-time, but I honestly don't think he stays there long-term.

Yep. I see Paris as the shorstop of the future, Jackson at 2B or maybe 3B, depending how Rendon ages. I could also see Jackson-Vera-Paris as our 3B-SS-2B in 5 years.

In other news, the Trash Pandas had a great pitching night: 0 runs, 2 hits, 2 walks, 14 Ks. Tyler, Higgins, Ortega.

[Angelsjunky]

Presumably Maitan and Deveaux will start the year in Orem? And Alex Ramirez, David Calabrese, Arol Vera, and Adrian Placencia in AZL?

[Vlad27Trout27]

This is what i WIll say about this debate about Velocity. 

 

I will say that Command is much more important than Velocity. With that, if a Pitcher throws, 94-96, with Desception and solid command like Detmers, it's much than him throwing in the low 90s, 

Overall Command determine's what type of pitcher Detmer will become, but the added velocity and improved stuff has risen his upside. 

two perfect examples of this we've seen.

Weaver, in his prime was an Ace while averaging 90s, due to his secondary stuff and command.

Canning, has the upside of two, throws harder than Weaves, I would say is offseep did take step forward since he was drafted, but he lacks the command that Weaver had. 

Overall, it'll depend on Detmer's ability to command his pitcher to reach a number 2 type of pitcher. 

 

 

[greginpsca]

26 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Presumably Maitan and Deveaux will start the year in Orem? And Alex Ramirez, David Calabrese, Arol Vera, and Adrian Placencia in AZL?

Maitan is listed on IE's roster, currently on the IL. There is no longer a team in Orem, so the rest are likely in AZL.