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The Official 2021 Los Angeles Angels Minor League Stats, Reports & Scouting Thread


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2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

And one more thing.  A bunch of us have been on here for over a decade.  We all have our own style and we all post things that are smart and things that are dumb.  @Angel Oracle is one of my favorite people on here.  It doesn't mean we can't give each other a ration of shit once in awhile and then hug it out like brothers.  I called him out on something that I was tired of hear and tired of trying to defend.  Wasn't anything more than trying to get him to not leave his dirty clothes on my side of the room.  I guess I could have been more gracious.  

 

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1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

Adell K’s 21 times in first 52 PAs.

Since then: 61 Ks in 228 PAs, much better, still a little work to do 

Or to break it down further.

May: 36 Ks, 6 walks in 98 AB.

June: 34 Ks, 7 walks in 104 AB.

July: 14 Ks, 4 walks in 62 AB.

So the walk rate hasn't improved, but he's striking out less.

On the other hand, let's break it down by outs:

May: 36 Ks in 75 outs.

June: 34 Ks in 74 outs.

July: 14 Ks in 39 outs.

So the rate is still lower, but part of that is he's making contact more (.371 BA in July).

I'm still quite concerned about his future. He strikes out a lot, his contact rate is erratic, and he doesn't take any walks. Even if he can adapt his game to the majors, unless he starts taking walks he's going to be very, very streaky.

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19 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Or to break it down further.

May: 36 Ks, 6 walks in 98 AB.

June: 34 Ks, 7 walks in 104 AB.

July: 14 Ks, 4 walks in 62 AB.

So the walk rate hasn't improved, but he's striking out less.

On the other hand, let's break it down by outs:

May: 36 Ks in 75 outs.

June: 34 Ks in 74 outs.

July: 14 Ks in 39 outs.

So the rate is still lower, but part of that is he's making contact more (.371 BA in July).

I'm still quite concerned about his future. He strikes out a lot, his contact rate is erratic, and he doesn't take any walks. Even if he can adapt his game to the majors, unless he starts taking walks he's going to be very, very streaky.

Adell is probably going to live off of his exit velocity.  He's a freak that way.  It's not just about whether he's progressing in terms of how many walks he takes but his pitch selection.  Is his July surge actual progression or is it more of the same of who he is and related to a hot streak.  Is he logging in his memory which pitches he can destroy and which ones he needs to lay off or is the quality of pitches in AAA so bad that it's not actually helping him sort of create that database.  

He's clearly a hell of a lot better at AAA this time around than he was in his first go around there yet his bb rate has actually decreased.  We need to remember he didn't hit a single hr in 132 PA in that first stint.  Now he's just destroying ball to all fields.  

I'm wondering if his true education is only going to come in the majors.  His league adjusted wRC+ in AAA is 111.  Pretty good but not out of this world by any means.  

And just to remind everyone that there's still plenty of time, he's the second youngest qualified player in AAA west and the fourth youngest in all of AAA.  

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9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Adell is probably going to live off of his exit velocity.  He's a freak that way.  It's not just about whether he's progressing in terms of how many walks he takes but his pitch selection.  Is his July surge actual progression or is it more of the same of who he is and related to a hot streak.  Is he logging in his memory which pitches he can destroy and which ones he needs to lay off or is the quality of pitches in AAA so bad that it's not actually helping him sort of create that database.  

He's clearly a hell of a lot better at AAA this time around than he was in his first go around there yet his bb rate has actually decreased.  We need to remember he didn't hit a single hr in 132 PA in that first stint.  Now he's just destroying ball to all fields.  

I'm wondering if his true education is only going to come in the majors.  His league adjusted wRC+ in AAA is 111.  Pretty good but not out of this world by any means.  

And just to remind everyone that there's still plenty of time, he's the second youngest qualified player in AAA west and the fourth youngest in all of AAA.  

I see walks (and contact) as symptomatic of pitch recognition and overall plate approach. If you can recognize pitches, you lay off the bad ones and you have a better chance of making contact; the walks start accumulating and the BA goes up. Meaning, they aren't the same thing, but as his pitch recognition improves, his walks will naturally go up, and we can't see pitch recognition in the stats, but we can see walks and contact rate.

Right now I see a guy with great power, but poor contact and plate discipline. To be a good player, he needs to at least be average in one of the other two. To be a star, he needs to be average or better in both. Meaning, if Adell can hit .250 and walk 50 times a year, he'll be very good, maybe .250/.330/.550 with 35+ HR. Right now, though, I see a guy who would struggle to hit .220 in the majors, or walk more than 25-30 times a year. That would be something like .220/.270/.450 with 25 HR, imo.

Either way, I think he'll be a major leaguer, but the range of outcomes is still rather wide, whereas someone like Brandon Marsh has a floor of being an average plus regular, and a very good chance of being at least a good to very good player. 

 

 

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39 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

Oliver Ortega since June 12:

14.0 IP  1.93 ERA  3 R (all earned)  10 H  3 BB  14 SO

5 of those hits and 3 of those runs were from a single outing on June 25th

He started off pretty poorly so on the season he has an ERA 6.84 but has a FIP of 3.24.

He's the real deal. The velocity and movement. He's overpowering minor leaguers in short stints. 

 

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